Category Archives: NFL

NFL Week 5 Preview

By: Nick Radivoj

I was unable to capitalize on my Week 3 performance as Week 4 gave me a 7-9 record as I total to 36-28 (56%) on the year. A rather frustrating performance from Week 4 given that a few overs were there for the taken but missed because of either no scoring in the second half by a team or no points scored in the entire 4th quarter from either side. Reagrdless, we are back for Week 5 firing at the board.

Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)

When: 8:15 PM on 10/6

Line: Broncos -3

O/u: 43.5

The injury bug has hit both of these running back rooms as Colts Jonathan Taylor is dealing with an injury of his own that may either keep him ot or slow him down while Broncos suffered worse news as Javontae Williams suffered a torn ACL in their last matchup. Under is the play here as neither of these offenses seem to be able to move the ball easily throughout any of thir games so far either with bad playcalling or not having the athletes out there to make the needed plays. Colts are an indoor team coming to play in the outside at Mile High so don’t forget about that element as conditioning could play a factor in this game com elate, but good news for Matt Ryan is I heard ducks fly better at higher altitude.

The Play: Under 43.5

New York Giants (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)

When: 9:30 AM on 10/9 (London)

Line: Packers -8

O/u: 41.5

If you wake up early on Sunday mornings then brew yourself a nice cup of coffee and enjoy some early football as we have another game overseas this week. Aaron Rodgers looks to lead the Packers to their 4th straight win on the season after coming out flat in their opening game against Minnesota. Slowly but surely, it seems like Rodgers is starting to connect with his new weapons as earlier this year it seemed they were often not in sync. Green Bay seemed to underestimate the Patriots last week as they barely escaped in overtime with a win, so I expect them to be prepared this week for whatever Brian Daboll and the Giants have ready to throw at them. Run at them may be the correct phrase as Saquon Barkley is healthy and looks like his 1st round caliber self again and if the Packers are able to key in on him and bottle him up then this Giants offense is in for a long day.

Packers -8

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Buffao Bills (3-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Bills -14

O/u: 47

The Kenny Pickett era has begun 4 games into the season as the rookie will make his first start this week on the road in Buffalo. Unfortunately, Buffalo is not the most welcoming of places for a rookie to have his first start and with this being only the second home game for the Bills this season, so I expect the fans to be rowdy and full of energy. The line speaks for itself here as Vegas is expecting a blowout but I’m never high on laying 2 TDs against a professional football team so that leaves us with either taking the points with Pitt or looking towards the total here. Although their offensive line seems to be overpowered on paper by the Bills defensive line, Pittsburgh does have weapons on the outside to attack a banged-up Bills secondary. I will most likely regret this, but I will take the points in hopes of a backyard cover here for us late.

The Play: Steelers +14

Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Chargers -3

O/u: 48

Justin Herbert brings his team back to .500 on the year after gutting out a great performance against Houston. You can see that Herbert isn’t 100 percent healthy still but he’s still managing to gut it out for his team. Los Angeles is hopeful to get Keenan Allen finally back this week to pair him alongside Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler who broke out last week totalling 3 total touchdowns. Cleveland, on the other hand, comes home after a disappointing last second loss to the Falcons on the road. Keep an eye out on the status of both of Cleveland’s defensive ends because if they are unable to give it a go then life gets a whole lot easier for Justin Herbert not having to worry about them. Just as I did in the first 4 weeks, I will continue to fade Jacoby Brissett and this Browns team.

The Play: Chargers -3

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Vikings -7

O/u: 44

My hope of Justin Fields becoming a dynamic QB in the NFL gets smaller and smaller as the weeks dwindle by. He has yet to look the part and the blame isn’t fully on him as Chicago’s front office did very little to help him out whether it be regarding his offensive line or offensive weapons. I do not intend on backing him here either as Minnesota has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and the fan swill make it difficult on Fields’ all throughout the contest. Color me very shocked here if Minnesota doesn’t come out of this game with multiple turnovers forced. Vikings don’t have the strongest of defenses in the NFL but with what Chicago can throw at them and this home environment give me the Vikings.

The Play: Vikings -7

Detroit Lions (1-3) at New England Patriots (1-3)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Patriots -3

O/u: 46.5

I learned my lesson and if the Lions are playing then I’m playing the over. Detroit has one of the highest scoring offenses in the league but when you couple that with the worst defense in the NFL then it’s not a recipe for success. For this game make sure to keep an eye on the injry report for Swift, St. Brown, and Brian Hoyer as whether these players are inactive or playing could severely move both the total and spread here. Regardless, Patriots should dhave a field day on the ground with their 2 headed monster.

The Play: Over 45.5

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Saints -5.5

O/u: 46

Geno Smith has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season as he has looked rather impressive in his first 4 starts. Seahawks finally got the run game going against Detroit last week but playing the worst defense in the NFL may have something to do with that. Saints return from London empty handed but should get Jameis Winston back this week behind center. Over is the play here as New Orleans shouldn’t have too much difficulty moving the ball on Seattle as they, along with the Lions, have one of the worst defenses in the league. If Geno Smith continues to cook then we should be cruising over the total.

The Play: Over 46

Miami Dolphins (3-1) at New York Jets (2-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Dolphins -3

O/u: 44.5

No Tua, no problem for the Dolphins in this one. Miami is coming off having extra rest and a disappointing effort against Cincinnati last Thursday. Keep an eye on the health of both Dolphins’ starting cornerbacks as Byron Jones should return from the IR and Xavien Howard left the matchup against the Bengals early. I expect for the defense to get back on track mixing up their coverages and confusing the relatively inexperienced Zach Wilson. Ne York has explosive wide receivers on the outside in Elijah Moore and Garret Wilson but Zach Wilson hasn’t shown the ability to consistently get them the ball to create plays. Running game finally gets on track for Miami here as they run away with the win and run back down to Miami to hopefully get Tua back for Week 6.

The Play: Dolphins -3

Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Buccaneers -8.5

O/u: 48

Although in a losing effort, Buccaneers finally got their offense back on track with Mike Evans returning from suspension and Chris Godwin returning from injury. Unfortunately, Tampa’s offense may have found a groove, but their defense underwhelmed as they had over 40 points dropped on them on Sunday Night Football. Luckily, Tampa’s defense gets to face off against the likes of Marcus Mariota who looks far from what everyone remembers at Oregon. Atlanta has lost their leading running back on the year and seem to have forgotten who Kyle Pitts is as he gets under utilized game in and game out. Tampa rights their ship and catapults back into first place.

The Play: Buccaneers -8.5

Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Titans -2.5

O/u: 42.5

I’m unsure how anyone can logically back the Commanders after seeing what they have put on display over the first few weeks of the season thus far. The offense has been rather abysmal despite having talent in spots over the field while the defensive players seem to hate their DC Jack del Rio. None of this is a recipe for success and ultimately Ron Rivera is on a sinking ship in Washington as this is going to be blown up after this year. Titans have gotten their season back on track winning 2 straight behind King Henry and I expect the trend to continue here. Titans defense is susceptible to plays downfield and I expect Wentz and company to put together a better offensive outing this week.

The Play: Over 42.5

Houston Texans (0-3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/9

Line: Jaguars -7

O/u: 44.5

If we are Trevor Lawrence we are going to chalk up what happened in Phily because of the rain and forget about it moving forward. Jacksonville has surprised us how they have played to start this year but are they good enough to be laying a touchdown even against Houston? This is a divisional matchup for the Texans  who played another division foe tight earlier this year in the Colts to a tie. The offseason hype of Damian Pierce seemed to have finally come to fruition as he totaled over 100 yards on the ground last week against the Chargers. I’m taking the points here with the divisional dog here and if the game isn’t close late then back door is sure to be alive.

Texans +7

San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)

When: 4:05 PM on 10/9

Line: 49ers -6.5

O/u: 39

This is going against the trend here with the over play. Through 4 games the 49ers have hit the under in all of them and Panthers aren’t far behind. As trends like this occur, people will often blindly take the under and with oddsmakers knowing this they will make a line to favor themselves into an over win. We saw how good the 49ers defense were on Monday Night football but travelling across country on a short week could have an impact on the unit. If they weren’t already, Panthers players and staff are fighting for their jobs and need to show up or possibly be looking for work come Tuesday morning. San Francisco’s offense opened up last week with Jimmy getting in a more of a rhythm coming back in the starting role and from injury.

The Play: Over 39

Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)

When: 4:25 PM on 10/9

Line: Rams -4.5

O/u: 43.5

Rams look like a far cry from the team that won the Super Bowl just 8 months ago as they seem to miss Odell badly on offense. Cooper Kupp may always be open but he can’t be the only focal point of your offense. Meanwhile, Cooper Rush has filled in nicely since Dak suffered his injury winning 3 straight games. I’m banking on Sean Mcvay and his stars to right their ship as I lay the points here. The Cooper Rush experiment behind this banged up offensive line will get a heavy dose of Aaron Donald throughout this game mixed in with Jalen Ramsey getting in your head. Rams may finally use their big offseason addition in Allen Robinson as they paid him to be their top guy next to Kupp but has yet to produce. I don’t love this one here but something’s got to give.

The Play: Rams -4.5

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

When: 4:25 PM on 10/9

Line: Eagles -5

O/u: 49.5

Arizona has gotten themselves back to .500 but welcome an Eagles team to town that look like one of the best team in football right now. Kyler Murray and the offense looked nonexistent in the first half but finally were able to find their stride in the second half ultimately putting up 26 in the game. Jalen Hurts finally looked human against the Jaguards last week but the grond game behind Miles Sanders was able to secure the win regardless. Eagles win a close one on the road here but give me the Cardinals to cover.

The Play: Cardinals +5

Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

When: 8:20 PM on 10/9

Line: Ravens -3

O/u: 48.5

Both teams find themselves at 2-2 entering this game with two different paths to get there as Bengals have fought back starting the year off 0-2 while Baltimore has surrendered 2 double digit leads at home in both of their losses. Marlon Humphrey has looked like one of the best corners in football so far but he is only 1 man. This isn’t your Ravens defense of old with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed as they have been prone to giving up points and big plays. Bengals are coming off of a long week of rest as they played last Thursday and seemed to have found some magic late in that contest downfield to both Higgins and Chase. This won’t be your father’s AFC North matchup as I expect a defensive struggle here.

The Play: Over 48.5

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)

When: 8:15 PM on 10/10

Line: Chiefs -7

O/u: 51

It’s hard to not back the Chiefs after seeing what they did to a good Buccaneers team on the road on Sunday Night Football. Derek Carrr managed to get their first win this season but find themselves with a tough task as they travel on the road to Arrowhead for a primetime Monday Night Football game. Vegas finally found some magic in former 1st round pick Josh Jacobs as his breakout game led them to a win. Ultimately, I believe the Chiefs are too overwhelming with what they can do to you on offense as Patrick Mahomes has shown a mastery of this offense so far taking what the defense gives him. Raiders put up a fight but Kansas City is too much at the end.

The Play: Chiefs -7

NFL Week 4 Preview

By: Nick Radivoj

Week 3 was kind to us as we had an explosive 12-4 record on the week bringing our total on the year to 29-19. We can’t celebrate and rest on our loreals as we still have plenty of weeks in front of us and more work to do. A fun slate of games are in front of us so let’s find the value!

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/29

Line: Bengals -4

O/u: 47

Joe Burrow gets his Bengals team back on track as they get their first win of the season last weekend against the Jets. After their road victory, they welcome in the undefeated Miami Dolphins who are coming off of back-to-back games in which they took the lead late inside the 4th quarter. This game surely favors the Bengals here on paper as the Dolphins must travel over 1000 miles on short rest after exerting themselves against both Baltimore and Buffalo. The defense is sure to be gassed as they were on the field for 90 plays and nearly 40 minutes against Buffalo. With that exhaustion, I believe Cincinnati will be able to put up scores and with an explosive offense of their own Miami will be in recovery mode to try to come from behind yet again. Bengals ultimately win this game, but we will see if they can cover from the sidelines.

The Play: Over 47

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (1-2)

When: 9:30 AM on 10/2 (London)

Line: Vikings -2.5

O/u: 44

Minnesota and New Orleans will kick off our first overseas game of the 2022 NFL Season as they are set to match up in London. Kirk Cousins gets redemption from his primetime flop against Philadelphia as he leads Minnesota to a late come from behind win over their division rival Detroit. Meanwhile, New Orleans is looking to bounce back after dropping two games in a row following their Week 1 heroics. Key notes to keep an eye out for are Saints WRs Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas as they both left last Sunday’s game at one point with injuries. New Orleanshas struggled in their first few game sto get the offense going early as majority of their points have come from second half scoring. It’s quite possible that trend ends here as Minnesota doesn’t bring one of the top defenses in the league to town but again neither did the Falcons or Panthers. I’m looking for their scoring draught to end for New Orleans while Minnesota unleashes star WR Justin Jefferson after he has been relatively quiet since his Week 1 explosion.

The Play: Over 44

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Browns -1.5

O/u: 49.5

Atlanta has been a nice surprise to start off this year as they finally get their first win last weekend against Seattle. Although it was their first win, Atlanta has been in both of their first 2 games with the Saints and Rams. Cleveland is coming to Atlanta on the road after long rest as they played division rival Pittsburgh in the past Thursday night game. In Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable in the first 3 games this season as Cleveland waits patiently for Deshaun Watson’s suspension to run its course. The script is laid out for us as we know Cleveland will utilize their two top running backs and limit the opportunity for Brissett to lose the game. I expect Cleveland to control the clock with their run game and for Atlanta’s offense to come back to Earth as this one stays under.

The Play: Under 49.5

Washington Commanders (1-2) at Dalls Cowboys (???

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Cowboys -3

O/u: 41.5

Dallas has survived their first 2 games without QB Dak Prescott as they’ve won 2 in a row behind backup Cooper Rush. Meanwhile, Washington has dropped 2 in a row after their home win against the Jaguars in Week 1. Carson Wentz and the Commanders offense have looked half asleep in their past two games as the offense has done little to nothing in the first halves and only putting up points in garbage time when the games are all but done. Maybe, just maybe, Washington can get their offense back on track here if they are able to protect Wentz and with Washington’s defense often resembling Swisss cheese I will begrudgingly play the over.

The Play: Over 41.5

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Lions -4.5

O/u: 50

This Detroit Lions team is exciting to watch as they provide explosive plays across the field everywhere on offense. They are a fun team but a young team as well as they need to work on closing out games as we saw them last week lose a lead late to division rival Minnesota. Seattle also comes in looking for their second win on the year as they drop back-to-back games after beating their ex-QB Russel Wilson in Week 1. As seen by the previous weeks, I usually love playing over in Detroit games as they provide explosion on offense and a defense that can be scored on. My intention here earlier in the week was to take Seattle with the 6 points but as the health of Lions offensive weapons have come into question the line has dropped a point and a half. Losing value in playing Seattle, I now am playing the under with less offensive weapons for Goff to utilize and a Seattle team that would rather play slow than have a shootout.

The Play: Under 50

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Colts -3

O/u: 42.5

These 2 division rivals finally secured their first win of the season last week. Both Tennesee and Indianapolis were the front runners to win their division earlier this summer but have looked far from a team destined to make a playoff run. It seemed that Tennessee was able to get their offense back on track last week while Indy managed to squeak out a victory by capitalizing on turnovers against the Chiefs. Prior to the season, I expected these division foes to split their head-to-head matchup against one another and still feel like that will be the outcome. With the line seeming right on point, I turn my attention to the total and see value in playing the over here as Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry finally show the NFL why they are the two best in the game.

The Play: Over 42.5

Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants ((((

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Giants -3

O/U: 39

Go ahead and pinch yourself because no you aren’t dreaming as the records are accurate here with both teams coming in with a 2-1 record. New York has impressed me so far this year while the Bears have won off poor weather conditions and playing a bad Texans team. Unfortunately, Giants lost Sterling Shephard for the season as he tore his ACL in Monday’s contest against the Cowboys. DaDaniel Jones should have more time to get his playmakers the ball as Chicago doesn’t have nearly the pass rushers that Dallas has. Justin Fields has started the year off with 2 wins in 3 games but still doesn’t look like the once highly touted prospect that he was. A sloppy game that I gladly won’t have on my tv.

The Play: Giants -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Eagles -6.5

O/u: 48

Doug Pederson revenge game? The revenge game theory didn’t work as well last week as Carson Wentz most likely needs to check his boxers after that performance but I have more faith in Dougie P! He has impressed us with how the Jagshave played so far this season who currently own sole possession of the ARC South. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles look like juggernauts as their past 2 games have essentially been over mid-way through the 3rd quarter. I expect more of the same for both teams as Hurts will lead the Eagles offense to multiple scoring drives with Trevor Lawrence not lagging far behind. Points won’t be at a premium in this one as Philly fans finally get a fun game on the way.

The Play: Over 48

New York Jets (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Steelers -3.5

O/u: 40.5

No analysis on this one these are two bad teams that I’m excited to not have on screen here. Zach Wilson is set to return Sunday but don’t cheer yet as that may not be a good thing. This will be my shortest write up to date and probably all season but go Steelers.

The Play: Steelers -3.5

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Bills -3.5

O/u: 51.5

This game will feature a match up between what should be the top leaders currently in the MVP race. Buffalo comes off their first loss this season and share a commonality with Baltimore as both teams suffered their sole loss to the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore’s defense does not look like the defense as old as they have been susceptible to big plays over the past few weeks and that recipe is not one for success as you welcome in an explosive Josh Allen offense. Buffalo’s secondary has been pretty banged up as of late as they were without both of their starting safeties last week and still await for Tre’Davious White’s return from the IR. I trust Josh Allen to get his offense back on track after only scoring 17 points on over 90 plays and combine that with how Lamar Jackson has showcased this season leads us to an easy conclusion.

The Play: over 51.5

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-1-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Chargers -5

O/u: 44

Chargers have caught the injury bug and they caught it bad as they lose their LT for the rest of the season. Justin Herbert is already a tad banged up himself so losing his blind side protector is something to note. They should be getting Keenan Allen back this week and have playmakers throughout the offense and defense. HC Brandon Staley needs to get back a Chargers team on track that had playoff aspirations to start the year. Luckily, they face a Houston team that has looked more like a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft after their Week 1 contest against the Colts. Davis Mills doesn’t look like the long term solution and if the Chargers have playoff hopes they will handle this one and handle it easily.

The Play: Chargers -5

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

When: 4:05 PM on 10/2

Line: Panthers -1.5

O/u: 42.5

This will be an ugly play here is I go with the over but stay with me here. Under totals are cashing at an all-time percentage throughout the first few weeks of the NFL season and that percentage is bound to regress towards the mean. I think Week 4 is the week that you will be taking over tickets to the window. Baker Mayfield should be able to take advantage of this poor Cardinals secondary as long as he remembers that he has an explosive weapon in DJ Moore. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the best road teams as underdogs since Kyler has taken over behind center. A final of 24-20 gets us to the window.

The Play: Over 42.5

New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 10/2

Line: Packers -10

O/u: 40.5

What used to be an exciting match up featuring Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers has now lost even ore juice as second year QB Mac Jones looks to be out with injury for several weeks suffering an injury in last Sunday’s loss against the Ravens. Backup QB Brian Hoyer should be filling in for the injured Mac Jones and isn’t welcomed to the starting lineup with a plethora of weapons as New England’s offense has looked subpar to say the least to start this year. Green Bay has gone under the total in all 3 games so far this year while New England has gone to the window with 2 under totals snd with how these teams are designed to play another under is in the cards. New England will surely throw the kitchen sink at back to back MVP Aaron Rodgers in an attempt to slow their offense down and New England’s offense doesn’t look to threatening to a much improved Green Bay defense.

The Play: Under 40.5

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)

When: 4:25 PM on 10/2

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/u: 45.5

I wouldn’t let the record fool you as Denver has looked far from a winning team so far. Russ and the offense seem to be out of sorts through the first 3 weeks of the season as their punter was getting more work in their win against San Francisco than their kicker. Las Vegas is truly the key to this game as they come in still looking for their first win under their new head coach. Falling to 0-4 on the season for a team that made the playoffs last year and looking to improve on that would be rather disastrous. This game can easily determine how this game goes for Las Vegas as they can either right the ship or call in the season early as it’s an uphill climb to make a postseason push after starting off 0-4. Give me Raiders or get ready to start hearing the fire McDaniels chants in Vegas.

The Play: Raiders -2

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

When: 8:20 PM on 10/2

Line: Chiefs -2

O/u: 45

Finally, an exciting matchup to look forward to on Sunday Night Football as we get a Super Bowl rematch with Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Both teams still have their QBs under center, but the teams look a tad different this year as Mahomes lost one of his explosive weapons to South Beach this year in Tyreek Hill and the once best offensive line in football in front of Tom Brady has become familiar with the injury bug. Both teams are coming off a loss and with historical information I love trusting Big Red (Andy Reid) off of a bye or coming off of a loss. There’s a chance this game does not end up taking place in Tampa Bay because of Hurricane Ian and if that happens that eliminates any home field advantage the Bucs would have in this one. Welcome the Chiefs back into the winners circle after this contest.

The Play: Chiefs -2

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

When: 8:15 PM on 10/3

Line: 49ers -2.5

O/u: 42

San Francisco looks out of sorts this year on offense as the team hasn’t scored over 17 in 2 out of their first 3 games to start the season. Facing off a Super Bowl winner from last year in the Rams may not be the best formula for success but in the past few years Kyle Shanahan and company have owned the Rams in the regular season. I look for the offense to get back on track a little bit with Deebo Samuel finally getting himself in the endzone. I projected these teams to split games during the season with each winning their home contest so with 49ers having the home field advantage I will be riding with the team in San Fran.

The Play: 49ers -2.5

NFL Week 3 Preview

By: Nick Radivoj

An unfortunate wash of a weekend in Week 2 as I finish with an average 8-8 record across the board bringing the season total to 17-15 (still up!). This NFL Week 3 slate seems a lot tougher to dissect so join me as we maneuver our way through the board to pick out the best bet from each game!

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/22

Line: Browns -4.5

O/u: 38.5

A pair of division rivals are set to face off Thursday night to jump start us into Week 3 of NFL action. This Steelers team will look different than the last time Cleveland faced them as they will be missing their defensive star TJ Watt to injury and Hall of Fame QB Big Ben to retirement. The Jacoby Brissett experience has been a roller coaster to start the season as Cleveland finds themselves at .500 currently but could easily be both defeated and undefeated. Pittsburgh’s offense is still pedestrian from last year as OC Matt Canada’s offense refuses to take deep shots down the field but rather play in a 5 yard box away from the line of scrimmage. I rarely encourage taking the under in low totals but with Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett at the helm I don’t see any other way.

The Play: Under 38.5

Houston Texans (0-1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Bears -2.5

O/u: 40.5

Two quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL Draft are set to face off for the first time in Davis Mills and Justin Fields. Both teams are projected to have a high pick in next year’s draft but both have been a nice surprise to start this year as Houston has been in both of their first two games and Chicago started off the year with an underdog win. Chicago may be rebuilding but they really need to see what they have in QB Justin Fields as throwing the ball 14 times per game isn’t the best way to evaluate what you have in him. On the other hand, Davis Mills has led Houston down the wire in both of their games but unable to seal the victory come closing time. Cheers to hoping the Bears open their playbook and Houston continues to move the ball down the field. I’m a happy camper to not be tuning into this game on Sunday.

The Play: Over 40.5

Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/u: 45.5

Titans HC Mike Vrabel looked absolutely disgusted on the sideline Monday night as Tennessee was pummeled by Buffalo by 34. After losing their home opener on a missed game winning field goal, Tennessee comes back home in an attempt to find their first win of the season welcoming in the also defeated Raiders. Las Vegas was on their way to securing their first win last week but blew a 20-0 lead as Kyler Murray brought back Arizona for their first win. Titans OT Taylor Lewan left Monday’s game early with an injury and will be a player to keep an eye out for as Tennessee will be tasked with keeping their QB upright against Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Although Monday’s loss left an incredibly poor taste in my mouth, I will keep faith in Mike Vrabel to right the ship here at home with the points.

The Play: Titans +2.5

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Chiefs -6.5

O/u: 49.5

The Colts come into this game still defeated on the year as they are unable to get the monkey off their back losing yet again to Jacksonville in Florida. Keep an eye out for injury updates on Colts WR Michael Pittman as he was unable to play last week and without him Indy is unable to move the ball downfield. Kansas City comes on the road undefeated after an exciting home win Thursday night against the Chargers. The key to beating any star QB is to limit the amount of possessions that team gets and insert variance into the mix hoping for a turnover or two. Indy will lean on the back of their star running back in order to win the time of possession battle and maybe, just maybe, sneak out a win. Colts plus the points is in play here but rather play the under with slow methodical drives sure to come.

The Play: Under 49.5

Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Bills -5.5

O/u: 53.5

Buffalo looks every bit the Super Bowl favorite as they crush the Titans 41-7 in their home opener. As a Dolphins fan, I truly won’t believe they can beat the Bills until they finally do as this team has owned Miami for the past several years. Bills offseason signee Von Miller has seemed to transform their defensive front 7 as they have caused havoc in both games thus far and will be the biggest test for Miami’s new look offensive line. Miami showed off their new offense this past week as they managed to come back down 3 touchdowns in the 4th quarter to overcome Baltimore. Tua had the game of his short career as he threw for over 450 yards and 6 TDs but will need to build off this game as he welcomes Josh Allen and the undefeated Bills. I’m unable to back Miami until they prove it but that doesn’t mean I’m going against them so with too much offensive talent on display give me points and give me a lot of them.

The Play: Over 53.5

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Vikings -6

O/u: 53.5

Minnesota’s offense took a major step back after their Week 1 performance as they looked lost in Philadelphia Monday night. Kirk Cousins looked every bit Primetime Kirk as he continuously threw up turnover worthy balls into the Philadelphia night. Luckily, Minnesota will welcome in a Lions team that has yet to allow less than 27 points in a game thus far. Their defense may be a work in progress, but their offense has been explosive as Detroit has put up over 35 points in each game to start the season. I expect Minnesota’s offense to get back on track behind Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook this week while Detroit will continue providing explosive plays on their side of the ball.

The Play: Over 53.5

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Ravens -3

O/u: 43

Baltimore comes to New England with a poor taste in their mouth as they let up a 3-touchdown lead in a losing battle against the Dolphins this past Sunday. Lamar Jackson looks like a man looking for a new contract as he was nearly perfect in this game throwing for 3 TDs while adding another one on the ground against Miami. New England was able to find themselves in the win column for the first time this year as they managed to defeat another AFC North team in the Steelers. Although they managed to secure the win, New England’s offense has yet to pop off this year under second year QB Mac Jones which may not be the biggest surprise as the team did little to surround him with weapons this offseason. Baltimore’s defense can’t look any worse after allowing 35 second half points, can they? With minimal weapons on the offensive side of the ball and with running QBs often giving their defense mishaps I don’t love New England in this spot at home.

The Play: Ravens -3 

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Bengals -4.5

O/u: 45.5

Super Bowl hangover? Cincinnati looks like a far cry from the team that played in last year’s Super Bowl as they start this year 0-2 and losing to a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys team. Zac Taylor could have easily found himself on the hot seat were it not for Cincinnati’s Super Bowl run last year. Joe Burrow has looked terrified this year running for his life from both TJ Watt and Micah Parsons in his first two games behind what was supposed to be one of the best revamped offensive lines in the league. Disappointed after their second loss, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seemed to have choice words calling out their offense. Meanwhile, New York logged their first win of the season last week in a thrilling 13-point comeback in the final 2 minutes of the game. Despite the slow start, Cincinnati will need a commanding victory this week if they have any aspirations this year for another deep playoff run.

The Play: Bengals -4.5

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Washington Commanders (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Eagles -6.5

O/u: 47

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles looked impressive on Monday night as they begin their season off 2-0. The Carson Wentz experience in Washington hasn’t been a horrendous start this year as the offense has put up over 24 points in both of their games to start the season. This game will display good against good as Washington’s defensive line will battle Philadelphia’s offensive line in the trenches. Commanders’ defense has been slightly overrated to start the year but if they are able to contain and get pressure on Jalen Hurts with their front 4 anything is possible. Carson Wentz will be looking for redemption against the team that gave up on him as the division dog is alive at home to take this one outright.

The Play: Commanders +6.5

New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Saints -3

O/u: 41  

A few different bounces of the ball and Carolina could see themselves as undefeated as opposed to defeated entering this game. The Baker Mayfield led Panthers have looked rather sloppy thus far on offense while the defense, for the most part, has held their own. They welcome in Jameis Winston and the Saints at home as they also look to bounce back after a loss to Tom Brady last weekend. Two major factors in this game to keep an eye out for is if Saints RB Alvin Kamara will play and this game and second is if Jekyll or Hide will be playing QB for New Orleans this week. How New Orleans looks heavily correlates with whether Jameis takes care of the ball or not. If Brian Burns and company can create some short fields off turnovers for the offense then the Panthers can secure their first win this season. One thing is for certain and that is we need more characters like Jameis in the NFL as he gets me excited to watch him on the field and listen to his pressers postgame as well.

The Play: Panthers +3

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

When: 4:05 PM on 9/25

Line: Chargers -7

O/u: 48

Everything in my normal process tells me to lay the points with the Chargers here as the Jaguars are coming across country and 3 time zones to play in this one, but with the way Trevor Lawrence looked in Week 2 I can’t resist in backing this Jacksonville team. Under new regime, Jacksonville looks more composed and more confident out on the field as they are filled with young talent across the field. Keynote to look out for is the health of Justin Herbert as he injured his rib in Los Angeles’ loss last Thursday to Kansas City. If Jaguars do arrive in LA as expected then this game could also lead us to a shootout with the over as a good play as well but give me the young, tough Jaguars here instead.

The Play: Jaguars +7

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/25

Line: Rams -3.5

O/u: 49

The Rams have not looked like the Super Bowl winner from last year as they lose handedly to Buffalo Week 1 and sneak out of LA with a win against the Falcons that should have been a whole lot easier than it was. Los Angeles was up 28-3 with little time remaining in the 3rd quarter but as soon as you look back Atlanta has the ball with a chance to win it at the end. Rams have yet to cover a game this season but that comes to a screeching halt here as Sean Mcvay has owned the Cardinals since he took over as HC for the Rams. Kyler Murray was able to pull off a miraculous comeback last weekend against the Raiders, but his heroics may not be enough this time as he isn’t left with many offensive weapons with Deandre Hopkins suspension and Arizona’s defense often resembling Swiss cheese.

The Play: Rams -3.5

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/25

Line: Seahawks -2

O/u: 42

Atlanta has surprised many this year as they have come out in both games and nearly stolen a win against 2 quality teams in the Saints and Rams. Atlanta has been able to move the ball on offense behind first round WR Drake London and with former 1st round pick Kyle Pitts sure to get in the mix soon this offense has the capability to be tough to stop. Meanwhile, Seattle forgot to show up playing the 49ers this week as they looked like a completely different team that played Denver the week prior. Offense seems rather uncapable of creating explosive plays with the unwillingness to throw the ball downfield to star WR DK Metcalf. Definitely not one of the top games I’m looking forward to this weekend, but Atlanta finds themselves in the winners circle for the first time this year.

The Play: Falcons +2

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

When: 4:25 on 9/25

Line: Buccaneers -2

O/U: 41

Much of this game has lost its spark as Tampa Bay will be without many of their key offensive weapons with Mike Evans facing a suspension and Chris Godwin likely out with injury. Aaron Rodgers got the Packers back on track Sunday night as the offense was proficient with the defense stepping up making plays left and right. I wold normally love playing an over as low as this with Rodgers and Brady set to face each other but with both of these defenses being stout units and Tampa missing offensive players I don’t think it’s a smart play here. Rather, I will take the 2 points given to the team up in Greeen Bay as they continue to build off of their win against Chicago.

The Play: Packers +2

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

When: 8:20 on 9/25

Line: 49ers -1.5

O/u: 41.5

After losing their starting running back in Week 1, 49ers have the injury bug strike yet again as they lose QB Trey Lance for the rest of the season. Luckily. San Francisco still has last year’s starter Jimmy Garoppolo on the team as he slides back into the starting role. Offense shouldn’t miss a beat with Jimmy behind center as he has been the starter for the past couple years. This 49ers defense is also familiar with their opposing QB as they have faced Russel Wilson for the majority of his career when he was sporting Seahawks colors. 49ers have one of the best defensive lines in football and with a few offensive playmakers missing for Denver I see a slow day moving the ball for Russ. The altitude will surely play a factor on a California based team and with that combined with the 49ers defensive prowess I’m taking the under.

The Play: Under 45

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at New York Giants (2-0)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/26

Line: Giants -2.5

O/u: 39.5

No Dak Prescott? No problem. The Cowboys find themselves in the winners’ circle for the first time this year after taking down Cincinnati at home. The key to that win was playing mistake free football and leaning on the back of the defense and elite pass rusher Micah Parsons. Dallas is trying to scratch and claw their way to any win they can get to keep their young season alive while awaiting on Dak to return from an injury suffered in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Giants find themselves in unknown territory as they start their season off 2-0 under their new regime. I see this game playing out a lot likeDallas’ prior game with defense causing chaos and forcing Daniel Jones to turn the ball over. Under may be the right play here but I can’t find myself on the side of two under below 40 this week.

The Play: Cowboys +2.5

NFL Week 2 Preview

By: Nick Radivoj

NFL Week 1 comes to a close and leaves fans drooling for more as there was plenty of excitement to go around. We had multiple underdogs win outright as well as a couple games needing extra time to decide a winner… or not? We leave opening week of football with a 9-7 record and up 1.3u taking into account the juice. I believe a lot of meat was left on the bone and very well could have had a better week so let’s pick up where we left off and dive into Week 2!

Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/15

Line: Chiefs -4

O/U: 54.5

No Tyreek Hill? No problem. Patrick Mahomes came out last Sunday with an absolute masterpiece totaling 5 TDs on the day. More impressively, Kansas City held Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to 1 TD over 3 quarters as they tacked on 2 more in mop up duty in the final quarter. Chiefs’ new look defense held up against Arizona but will be faced with a tougher task Thursday night as one of the best young QBs in the league comes to town. Unfortunately, it looks as if Herbert won’t have one of his top options in Keenan Allen as he left Sunday’s game early with a hamstring injury. Mike Williams underwhelmed with only 2 catches in his Week 1 debut and will need to have a bigger game if Chargers expect to win. Key matchup to watch is versatile Safety Derwin James against TE Travis Kelce as he led Kansas City in receiving last week. I may be getting too cute with this play here but both defenses are mproved from last year and I’m not expecting the shootout that most are predicting.

The Play: Under 54.5

New York Jets (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/18

Line: Browns -6

O/U: 40

Ugly is the best word to describe these two passing offenses in Week 1. Both QBs averaged under 5.2 yards per attempt in their Week 1 performances. Cleveland is rather lucky to have secured a win last week as they landed 2 rather questionable flags on their game winning FG drive. We quickly glance at the line as there’s a close to zero percent chance I will lay a TD with Jacoby Brissett at QB for the Browns. Cleveland illustrated how their offense will run as they patiently wait for Deshaun Watson’s suspension to run its course. My suggestion to teams facing Cleveland Is to load up the box to stop Cleveland’s 2 headed monsters at running back and make Jacoby beat you. Begrudgingly, I will take Jets to cover here with a strong defensive game plan and signs of hopeful life from their offense. It can’t get any worse for Flacco, can it?

The Play: Jets +6

Washington Commanders (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/15

Line: Lions -2.5

O/U: 48.5

Commanders’ fans got the full Carson Wentz experience in Week 1 as he turned over the ball a few times on some rather ugly plays. With that being said, he still led Washington in a 4th quarter comeback to prevail against the Jaguars. This offense could be explosive with playmakers on the outside if Wentz is able to minimize his mistakes over the course of the season. Meanwhile, a track meet took place in Detroit last week as the Lions lost a close one to Philadelphia 38-35. Lions HC Dan Campbell may have had one of the more intriguing introductory press conferences to date but he truly inspires his team to play hard until the clock shows 0’s. Detroit will be a tough out in almost every game this year and if they are able to hold off Washington’s pass rush I love their odds in covering here but landed on the total instead.

The Play: Over 48.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/18

Line: Buccaneers -3

O/U: 44

Tampa Bay showed why they are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl Sunday night against Dallas as the contest was never really in doubt. Tom Brady’s birth certificate shows that he’s 45 years of age but still has the arm of a 25 year old NFL QB. Brady connected with new weapon Julio Jones multiple times in Week 1 as the former All Pro WR looks to have regained some of his youth as he’s partaking in the TB12 method himself. Remarkably, WR Chris Godwin started Week 1 on the field as opposed to the PUP list as he recovered quickly from a torn ACL last year facing this Saints’ team, but unfortunately left Sunday’s contest early with a hamstring injury. Since his time coming to Tampa Bay, Tom has controlled the NFC South but has had his issues with New Orleans time and time again. New Orleans started the year off with a win as they managed a second half comeback against Atlanta. They welcomed back WR Michael Thomas, and he welcomed them with 2 receiving TDs in the victory. This line feels about right and with two strong defensive teams I found myself on the probable too cute side of this total.

The Play: Under 44

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at New York Giants (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/18

Line: Giants -2.5

O/U: 43

How long has it been since the New York football Giants have had a winning record? My fuzzy memory wants to take me all the way back to 2016 with the boat picture playoff team. Plenty of similarities with these teams as they both had pedestrian offenses in the first half last week but opened up in the second half as both teams took late leads. New York was on the receiving end of a missed game winning FG while Carolina was defeated on a last second field goal of their own. Baker Mayfield was facing heavy pressure all day from Cleveland but luckily for him this week he will not see Myles Garrett lining up opposite of him. Most of me wants to play the over here but if Carolina is able to bottle up Saquon Barkley they are live to take this one on the road.

The Play: Panthers +2.5

New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/18

Line: Patriots -1.5

O/U: 40.5

Who’s calling the offensive plays in New England? Both teams come into Sunday’s contest with shaky performances at best on the offensive side of the ball. Patriots barely managed to move the ball in Miami while Pittsburgh turned their defense into offense as they turned Joe Burrow over 5 times in this game. Unfortunately, it looks like Pittsburgh will be losing former DPOY TJ Watt for several weeks if not the year to what seems to be a torn peck. Losing Watt will be a huge blow for this Steelers defense that I’m unsure they will be able to overcome. This one is rather easy for me as New England still has one of the best coaches of all time looking to get them in the win column for the first time this season.

The Play: Patriots -1.5

Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/18

Line: Colts -4

O/U: 47

Matt Ryan led the Colts to an unprobable 4th quarter comeback with 17 points but came up short as they ended with the first tie of the season. Colts, funny enough, sit atop the AFC South with the Texans even while not having won Week 1. Many people had high aspirations for this Indianapolis team and that will be put to the test Week 2 as they face the music this week returning to Jacksonville after their crushing Week 18 loss that kept them out of the playoffs. Jacksonville looked substantially better as they put their Urban Meyer days behind them, but Trevor Lawrence still does not look like the highly touted QB we loved gcoming out of Clemson. Colts get back on track as their front 7 has a field day in Jacksonville.

The Play: Colts -4

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/18

Line: Ravens -3.5

O/U: 44.5

Week 1 was a good weekend to be a first time HC in the NFL as new Dolphins’ HC Mike McDaniel began his tenure off with a division win against New England. This offense showed some of the explosion we were expecting after their offseason acquisitions but played conservatively for a majority of the game as they took a 17 point lead into halftime. Meanwhile, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson looked every bit of his former MVP status as he easily handled the Jets on the road. This game will show as a marker for Jackson’s improvement as Miami attacked the young QB with plenty of blitzes in last year’s matchup in an effort to have him make a perfect throw. Miami’s defensive game plan worked last year and may provide even more wrinkles this year as the homer in me will be riding with Miami. Hopefully, Tua continues his strong Week 1 start on the road and leads the team to 2-0.

The Play: Dolphins +3.5

Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Los Anageles Rams (0-1)

When: 4:05 PM on 9/18

Line: Rams -10.5

O/U: 47

A Super Bowl hangover for Matthew Stafford and the Rams? Either that or every team in the league should fear Josh Allen and the Bills. The Rams welcome Atlanta into town as what seems to be a “get right” game indicated by the opening line. Rams WR Allen Robinson signed this offseason for what he hoped would be a breakout season but left oening night with only 1 catch. We all know and trust HC Sean Mcvay to be able to get this eam right and be able to establish the run to set up his play action passing game. Atlanta could very easily be coming into this game 1-0 as they let up a 4th quarter comeback against their division rival Saints. Atlanta’s offense showed off a few wrinles in their opener as they displayed a read option between QB Marcus Mariota and RB Cordarelle Patterson which gashed New Orleans’ defense at times. Going back and forth on this one, I ultimately landed on Rams needing a statement victory along with the fact Atlanta is travelling across 3 time zones.

The Play: Rams -10.5

Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)

When: 4:05 PM on 9/18

Line: 49ers -10

O/U: 42.5

Standing atop the NFC West after the first week of football is none other than… the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle won a huge contest as they welcomed former QB Russel Wilson into their stadium and sent him packing with a loss. San Francisco lost a slip and slide of a football game in Chicago as the field was less than desirable to play on. Quite difficult to judge Trey Lance with all of the given weather conditions so this should be a game to see how the second year QB has progressed. 49ers should be able to move the ball on Seattle’s defense as they lose leader Jamal Adams for what looks like a lengthy amount of time. 49ers take this game, but with Geno Smith looking serviceable in Week 1 and the back door cover looking alive I will take the over.

The Play: Over 42.5

Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/18

Line: Bengals -7.5

O/U: 43

Joe Burrow with most likely his worst performance as a professional QB and still the Bengals should have won against Pittsburgh. A missed PAT at the end of regulation and missed FG in overtime are a few reasons they start off with a loss rather than a win. Dallas looks like they missed WR Amari Cooper Sunday night as their offense was pedestrian outside of their opening script. Dak had no help outside of CeeDee Lamb and also got hurt in this game most likely missing several weeks. Backup QB Cooper Rush seems to be the new man under center. I usually love the trend of riding with backup QBs as the team as able to rally behind them but with the offense put on display Week 1 by Dallas I’m left with no choice but to lay the points.

The Play: Bengals -7.5

Houston Texans (0-0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)

When: 4:25 on 9/18

Line: Broncos -10

O/u: 45.5

Questionable decision by new Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett on Monday night to say the least as he decides to kick a 64-yard game winning field goal as opposed to giving Broncos’ new QB Russel Wilson a chance to win the game late. Denver seemed phased by Seattle’s crowd noise throughout the game as they totaled 12 total penalties giving Seattle a third of their first downs via penalties. Houston came out quick in Week 1 with a 20-3 lead against the Colts in which they ultimately blew resulting in the first tie of the NFL season. Although leading most of the game, Houston was doubled in total yards by Matt Ryan and the Colts. The crowd and altitude will surely have an impact on Houston in Denver’s first home game of the season Let’s see what Chef Russ can do to bounce this team back into the win column with a double digit win in Week 2.

The Play: Broncos -10

Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)

When: 4:25 on 9/18

Line: Raiders -6

O/U: 51.5

Difficult to say if these teams have a bottom tier defense or if their Week 1 performances were because of facing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Raiders’ fans should be elated of their acquisition of Devante Adams as the star WR doesn’t seem to have missed a beat sporting silver and black this year. Another big game for Adams should be in the cards as this Arizona secondary doesn’t have anyone of major threat to slow him down. Arizona and Kyler Murray look to get their offense back on track as they managed only 1 TD in the first 3 quarters. After Kyler secured a monumental deal this offseason, he needs to come out in Week 2 and show the league why that is. Points won’t be at a premium today in this game and the backdoor is sure to be alive if the Raiders are in control.

The Play: Cardinals +6

Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)

When: 8:20 on 9/18

Line: Packers -10

O/U: 42.5

Shaky start for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers as the plethora of new WRs did not seem to be in sync with the back-to-back MVP. It’s been a while since these two teams squared off with the Bears having a better record and that will be put to a screeching halt Sunday night. Although they ended with a win, Chicago’s offense was putrid against the 49ers and it was not because of the rain either. QB Justin Fields doesn’t have the offensive line in front of him nor the weapons on the outside to help him shine in year 2. Simply put by Aaron Rodgers said to Chicago last year, “I own you”.  Offense wasn’t the only thing to underwhelm as Green bay was expected to have one of the top defenses in the league but got torched by star WR Justin Jefferson. Aaron Rodgers and his defense get their season back on track with a dominating win Sunday night over Chicago.

The Play: Packers -10

Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

When: 7:15 PM on 9/19

Line: Bills -10

O/u: 49.5

Buffalo looked every bit the Super Bowl favorites as they beat the reigning champs by double digits in the opening game of the season (and it could have been worse). Although they lost Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll to New York, Buffalo’s offense doesn’t seem to have missed a beat with Josh Allen under center. Tennessee was a missed game winning FG away from coming in 1-0 as well in this matchup. I don’t fully believe in this offense but HC Mike Vrabelhas my trust from what he’s done since taking this team over. Ultimately, I believe the Bills will win this game but expect the tTitans to keep this one close on the back of Derrick Henry. With long methodical drives and keeping the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands, Tennessee may just have a chance here to upset Buffalo in their home opener. Look ahead line had Bills favored by a TD so I will gladly scoop up 3 more from what could be a Week 1 overreaction.

The Play: Titans +10

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

When: 8:30 on 9/19

Line: Eagles -2

O/u: 50.5

Star wideouts were on display last week for both teams as Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown put on a clinic in their 2022 debut. Both offenses demonstrated the ability to put north of 24 points up each week. The only question we have here is how will Primetime Kirk Cousins look? My guess is great. A monkey has been taken off Kirk Cousins back now that he has a new head coach in town. Mike Zimmer was a great head coach in his tenure but the open tension between himself and his starting QB had to have played a part in Kirk’s play throughout the season. I know for me I do a tad better with my leaders building me up rather than tearing me down. A tough act for these teams to follow in Week 1 but expect another fireworks show and its not even 4th of July.

The Play: Over 50.5

TGIS NFL Week 1 Preview and Picks

By: Nick Radivoj

The long wait is finally over as the NFL season is back! NFL sits back and relaxes as the story lines unfold themselves with plenty of exciting Week 1 match ups. Hopefully you paid attention this offseason as there are several teams trotting out new starting QBs. Join us weekly as we breakdown the NFL slate and provide a best bet.

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

When: 8:20 PM on 9/8

Line: Bills -2.5

O/U: 52

Week 1 of NFL football kicks off with what could have been a Super Bowl matchup last year as the Bills were just 13 seconds away from punching their ticket to the AFC championship game for a potential Super Bowl bid. These two teams provide a few of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL as this game is star studded with talent on both sides of the ball. QB Josh Allen is a top pick for this year’s MVP and for good reason. Although led by Allen, the Bills defense will be showing off a new piece from this offseason as Von Miller brings his talents over from the Rams as he helped them hoist the Lombardi trophy last year. Unfortunately, theBills will not have Tre’davious White for this game and will be tested with Triple Crown winner last year Cooper Kupp and a new shiny toy in Allen Robinson. Bills are set out to prove that they are this year’s favorites as they take a win back home to Buffalo.

The Play: Bills -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Detroit Lions (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Eagles -4

O/U: 48.5

After making the playoffs last year, the Eagles are everyone’s dark horse team to make even more noise as they added WR AJ Brown and several defensive pieces this offseason. A make it or break it type year for QB Jalen Hurts as he enters year 3 with a team set up for success. Eagles have one of the best rosters in football but shouldn’t overlook this Lions team as they always compete under HC Dan Campbell. Lions are still a year or so away from making loud noise and are a potential game changing QB away from contending in the NFC North moving forward. I like this game to have points and a lot of them.

The Play: Over 48.5

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: 49ers -7

O/U: 41.5

There’s a new QB under center in San Francisco as Trey Lance takes the baton from Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance is set up for success as HC Kyle Shanahan led offenses are very QB friendly with offensive weapons everywhere on the field. Bears QB Justin Fields on the other hand has not been helped as much as his 2021 draft counterpart as they have one of the worst offensive lines in football along with few weapons for him to utilize on offense. Keep an eye out on the weather for this game as there seems to be rain out in the forecast but as long as the weather holds up I love the 49ers to take this one easily.

The Play: 49ers -7

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Bengals -6.5

O/U: 44.5

Mitchell Trubisky looks to take over for the Steelers under center as Big Ben finally sails off into the sunset. He is faced with a tough Week 1 opponent as the Bengals are coming off of a Super Bowl appearance. Are Super Bowl hangovers a real thing? This game will highlight plenty of offensive weapons on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati bolstered their offensive line this offseason and will be tested early and often as Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt looks to build off of his 22.5 sacks last season. The over would normally be in play for me here but something about a division dog intrigues me. I expect the Bengals to win this one but for Pittsburgh to keep it close.

The Play: Steelers +6.5

New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Dolphins -3

O/U: 46.5

These aren’t your Miami Dolphins you’ve grown accustomed to as they brought in a load of talent to help Tua succeed in year 3. Miami welcomes in electric WR Tyreek Hill as he plans to earn the title Legion of Zoom for the team down in South Beach. On the other side, QB Mac Jones has not been helped as much this offseason as he lost his Offensive Coordinator and has no notable additions on offense besides former Dolphins WR Devante Parker. Miai will be without CB Byron Jones for the first 4 weeks of the season as he was placed on the PUP list but I don’t see New England having the weapons to exploit that loss. Dolphins HC Mike Mcdanielwill look to start his first year off on a high note with a home victory.

The Play: Dolphins -3

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Panthers -2.5

O/U: 41.5

A battle between the exes takes place in Carolina as former Browns QB Baker Mayfield looks to lead his new team against Cleveland. Cleveland will be without QB Deshaun Watson for this game as he suffered an 11 game suspension. Baker has said all of the right things in the media but we all know the chip he will be playing with on his shoulder come Sunday afternoon. I truly feel that Mayfield’s play took a hit last year as he was playing with a torn labrum and he is looking to bounce back along with RB Christian McCaffrey. Not a whole lot to dive into as I will always ride with Baker in a revenge narrative.

The Play: Panthers -2.5

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

When: 1 ET on 9/11

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 46.5

After a long career sporting a Falcons jersey, Matt Ryan will be wearing blue this year for Indy. Ryan is welcomed with a top offensive line, running back, and up and coming wide receiver in Michael Pittman. After missing the playoffs last year in a shameful Week 18 loss to the Jaguars, Indy will look to bounce back and potentially regain control of the AFC South. Their defense contains one of the best Front 7’s in football and will look to make some noise against second year QB Davis Mills. Houston is predicted to have one of the top picks in next year’s NFL Draft as they don’t have the roster yet to compete week in and week out. This Colts team will be too much for Davis Mills and company at home.

The Play: Colts -7

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Saints -5.5

O/U: 42.5

Atlanta is projected to have a top pick in next year’s NFL Draft and with good reason but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy for the Saints. It always seems that Atlanta plays the Saints tight in almost every contest over the years no matter the talent gap. New Orleans will be playing their first game after HC Sean Payton announced his retirement last offseason. The Saints shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball down the field as Atlanta is lacking in talent besides CB AJ Terrell. Many will like New Orleans to cover here but I’m playing the over as the back door will sure to be alive and division dogs at home are never fun to play with.

The Play: Over 42.5

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 44.5

Jets QB Zach Wilson will have to wait to make his 2022 debut as he recovers from injury which means… Joe Flacco revenge game! Flacco demonstrated the ability to move the ball last year that even the young Wilson did not with this offense. Unfortunately for Joe, Baltimore is coming off a year missing the playoffs after an injury riddled season. Baltimore returns plenty of key starters along with QB Lamar Jackson who is playing in a contract year. New York is still a year or so away from making a leap to contender so give me Baltimore here in Week 1. Note: I would much rather play a 2 team teaser with Baltimore and Indy.

The Play: Ravens -7

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Washington Commanders (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Commanders -3

O/U: 44

The NFL really does a fantastic job with scheduling games with fun story lines attached to them. Commanders QB Carson Wentz was shipped out of Indy last year after failing to beat Jacksonville in Week 18 as a double digit favorite. Carson Wentz revenge game? I believe so. Wentz may be getting his final crack at being a starting QB in the NFL and has weapons to help him along the way in Scary Terry and 1st round pick Jahan Dotson. Jacksonville will sure to improve this year from the mere fact of their head coaching change going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. This game feels like it will be decided late but give me the home team to prevail in Week 1.

The Play: Commanders -3

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: Packers -1.5

O/U: 48

A new regime in town in Minnesota as they move on from HC Mike Zimmer and bring in Sean McVay’s understudy from Los Angeles, Kevin O’Connell. Green Bay will be without All Pro WR Devante Adams as he was traded to Las Vegas this offseason. Aaron Rodgers will be put to the test as he leads a core of young but talented wide receivers. I don’t often find myself betting against the back to back MVP and won’t find myself doing that here. Minnesota will surely start meshing into the season but don’t love the prospects of them hitting the ground running against this Green Bay defense.

The Play: Packers -1.5

New York Giants (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: -5.5

O/U: 43.5

Former Bills HC Brian Daboll takes over in New York as he looks to lead them back into meaningful games late into the year. Unfortunately, Daboll does not have the roster to start competing early in year 1 but look for this team to compete all season long. Always keep an eye out on teams with new head coaches to see if their team either quits on him or plays hard until the final whistle. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been a playoff contender in every year under HC Mike Vrabel and don’t be surprised to find them in that situation again as they look to bounce back from a tough playoff loss last year against Cincinnati. Derrick Henry returns from injury and sets his eyes on trying to get back to 2000 rushing yards. Titans win this game but spread seems too tight to play.

The Play: Over 43.5

Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 52

Justin Herbert and company watched on the sidelines in dismay as their playoff hopes faded away last year against the Raiders as Daniel Carlson kicked a game winning field goal to send them home. Redemption will be spelled LAC come Sunday afternoon as Herbert will lead this high explosive offense to a Week 1 win against their AFC West Rivals. Las Vegas will be running out not only a new head coach but offensive weapon as they acquired WR Devante Adams this offseason to reunite with his Fresno State QB Derek Carr. Las Vegas contains all the weapons to provide explosion on offense but I don’t see the weapons necessary to slow down Los Angeles over the course of 60 minutes. Over is in play here but backing Herbert instead.

The Play: Chargers -3

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: Chiefs -4.5

O/U: 53.5

Be on the lookout for fireworks in Arizona as this game has the highest total on the slate this weekend. Both teams have young, exciting QBs under center in Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Each QB will be without their primary target from last year as Chief’s traded WR Tyreek Hill to Miami this offseason and Cardinals Deandre Hopkins will be serving a 6 game suspension. Kansas City utilized their 2 first round picks in last year’s NFL Draft by double dipping on the defensive side of the ball trying to provide stops so that their high-powered offense can have more opportunities to score. I will put my faith in former MVP Patrick Mahomes and future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid as opposed to a Cardinals team who fell apart down the stretch last year. 

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

When: 8:20 PM on 9/11

Line: Buccaneers -2

O/U: 50

The first Sunday of the NFL season will come to a close as last year’s first game takes center stage. I know that Tom Brady is invincible but at some point the decline has to take place. A weird offseason is an understatement for Tampa Bay as the following series of events took place: Tom Brady retires, Tom Brady unretires, HC Bruce Arians retires, and Tom Brady leaves training camp for over a week prior to season starting. These events alone are strange but all taking place with the same team seem even more odd. Brady logged over 700 pass attempts last year and most likely will near the 650 mark again as Tampa Bay loves to air it out on offense. Dallas has a rather boom or bust defense and combining that with Dallas’ ability to throw the ball downfield gives me an easy side for this one.

The Play: Over 50

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0

When: 8:15 PM on 9/12

Line: Broncos -6

O/U: 43

2022’s QB Carousel finally comes to an end with the final game of Week 1 showcasing Russel Wilson with his new team on the road against his former. We should see two totally different play styles Monday night as Denver will let Russ cook while Seattle will most likely try to control the ground game and play tough nosed defense. Denver provides Russ with all of the weapons he needs as he guns for his first MVP (vote) and another look at a deep playoff run. Seattle will sure to be rocking as the 12th man will play a factor but remember Russ isn’t a stranger in this stadium. He should have his team prepared for the noise and for their opponent as he’ll be sure to show off why Seattle should have never let him go.

The Play: Denver -6

Top 5 White Cornerbacks Today

2018 Rankings: 2018 White Cornerback Rankings
2019 Updated Rankings Here: 2019 White Cornerbacks Rankings

Dinosaurs, sabre-toothed tigers and starting white NFL cornerbacks… three creatures that have gone extinct. Jason SehornA white cornerback has not started at the position in the NFL since Jason Sehorn in 2003, making this the 17th consecutive NFL season without a starting white cornerback. The last time we even got a glimpse of a white cornerback was Julian Edelman playing some emergency nickel late in the 2011 season.

This phenomenon isn’t only in the NFL. College Football also has a severe lack of white cornerbacks. This upcoming year, there are only two white cornerbacks that will see significant time in the entire FBS.

So who will be the next white cornerback in the NFL? I took on the task of finding and ranking the top white corners in football today. Will one of these be the next white man to start at corner in the NFL? Probably not, but here is the list anyways:

1. Anthony Cioffi, Oakland Raiders

CioffiCioffi started five games at corner during his freshman year at Rutgers and five games during his sophomore year. Going into his junior year, Rutgers decided to ruin everything and switch him to safety. Cioffi went on to start 23 games during his last two seasons finishing his Rutgers career with 168 tackles and 8 interceptions. Cioffi still has a cornerback history so if he makes the team and a few cornerbacks go down, he has the best chance out of anyone to become the first white corner in a very long time.

2017 Season Update: Cioffi was waived by the Raiders on September 2, 2017

2. Micah Hannemann, BYUHanneman

Hannemann started his career at cornerback, but BYU ignored the chance to make history and decided to switch him to safety. He is referred to as one of the fastest guys on the team, but just like Cioffi, he will need to make the switch back to corner in the NFL if he wants to end the streak. Going into his senior year, he has started 25 games and has 3 interceptions. Hannemann is 24 years old as he went on a missionary for two years during his time at BYU. He should get a shot as a late round draft pick or an undrafted free agent in the NFL.

2017 Season Update: Finished his Senior Season with 48 Tackles and 1 INT

3. Justus Parker, Texas Tech

Justus

Finally, a player that actually currently plays cornerback. Parker enters his redshirt sophomore year after sitting out a year due to being a transfer student. He spent his freshman year starting at corner for Division III Texas Lutheran. It was there where he played against tough opponents like Sul Ross State and Southwestern Assemblies of God. After earning All-SCAC honors he decided to transfer to Texas Tech. He currently is second on the depth chart at the nickel corner position.

2017 Season Update: All-Big 12 Second Team, 4 INTS

4. Ethan Bonner, Woodlands High School (Northwestern Commit)

Bonner

Yes. The fourth best white cornerback in the world is in high school. Bonner is a three-star recruit with ten scholarship offers including Power 5 teams Stanford, Iowa State, Washington State and Northwestern, where he is currently committed. Bonner also runs track and has been timed in the 40-yard dash at 4.55. Let’s hope Northwestern doesn’t ruin the dream by switching him to safety.

2017 Season Update: Decommitted from Northwestern and Committed to Stanford

5. Evan Chadbourn, Lehigh

Chadbourne had led his team in rushing with over 2,300 yards in their 2015 Pennsylvania Class A state championsChadbournehip season. Going into the 2016 season, the Altoona, Pennsylvania native from Bishop Guilfoyle was offered a walk-on offer from Penn State. The best part? Penn State wanted him as a cornerback! Unfortunately, that summer he tore his ACL. He had 22 offers to play with the only FBS offers being from Temple, Navy and Air Force. Chadbourne ended up committing to Lehigh where he will most likely stay at running back.

2017 Season Update: Moved to Running Back and finished with 5 carries for 15 yards

Well there you have it, the top five white cornerbacks in the world. Let me know if I missed any. As you can probably tell, it is tough to find white cornerbacks.

Twitter: @TylerVesely

It is time to Start the Rodgers vs. Brady Conversation

On his own 32-yard line, surrounded by a noise level AT&T Stadium has never heard before, Aaron Rodgers made possibly the greatest pass in the history of the NFL playoffs. The throw, and the following kick, ended the Cowboys Super Bowl hopes and started a national conversation on whether Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady was a better quarterback right now. I am here to not only put Rodgers above Brady right now, but to start a conversation on Aaron Rodgers eventuallyrodgers-dallas REPLACING Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback to ever play… Yes, you read that right.

The conversation of Rodgers vs. Brady has ended since Brady made it to the Super Bowl and the Falcons sent the Packers packing. Writers and analysts across the nation went with the reaction of “See! I told you Brady is still better than Rodgers!” The only thing I learned from Sunday’s game was Green Bay’s secondary would be considered average in the Canadian Football League. Brady played great, Ryan played great, and Rodgers played great. There is only so much you can do trying to carry a bad defense to a Super Bowl.

          Buckle up, because you are going to think of Aaron Rodgers differently by the end of this. Never have we seen a 9 year run like the one Rodgers is on. He should be regarded as the best now and if he stays near this pace, he should be regarded as the best of ALL-TIME. For all you angry Bostonians out there, this is not a knock on Brady. I like Brady. I respect Brady. I rank him as a top 3 quarterback of all-time for goodness sake; so you can put down the Sam Adams bottle instead of throwing it at your own computer. I have my criteria on how I think quarterbacks should be ranked and guess what…Super Bowls should not be a major factor. Regular Season play, Playoff play, overall consistency, and the College Football Playoff eye test all are considered valid arguments. So here it goes; Rodgers over Brady now, and Rodgers over Brady in the future.

BUT 4 SUPER BOWLS!!

Time to roll up the sleeves and debunk this Super Bowl wins as a QB stat myth. Studying the past brady-sbSuper Bowl winners, the recipe for a championship is pretty simple: Good quarterback play and a solid defense.

Very rarely can a quarterback win a Super Bowl without a good defense. It actually has not happened over the past 16 seasons in this study. If the defense was average over the season they stepped up in the playoffs. Don’t believe me? Here are the stats with each team’s ranking based on points per game:

sb-champs-defensive-rank

          The only teams not in the top ten (2006 Colts, 2007 Giants, 2010 Saints, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens) all stepped up their defense in the playoffs. Out of those teams, only the 2012 Ravens gave up more than 20 points per game during the playoffs. The same saying is true today, “Defense wins Championships.”

As for the quarterbacks on Super Bowl winners, they are all pretty good, but it is true, you don’t have to be elite to win a Super Bowl. I don’t believe anyone is taking guys like Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson over Dan Marino, Tony Romo, or Dan Fouts. There are certainly a few average QB’s on the list, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and 2001 Tom Brady. WHAT DID I JUST SAY??

2001 Tom Brady: Average

Quick question: Who had the most passing touchdowns for the New England Patriots during the 2001 Super Bowl run?

Answer: Tie. Tom Brady and Drew Bledsoe each had a total of 1 touchdown pass.

bledsoe-brady           Tom Brady was a second year player who was tasked with taking over for Drew Bledsoe. Brady did a great job staying calm and having a nice season for a young quarterback. In the playoffs, there was the famous tuck rule play that could’ve ended the Patriots season. He threw for a lot of yards but it did not translate to a lot of points as the Patriots won 16-13.

The young quarterback’s first AFC Championship game? He was knocked out right before the end of the half, up 7-3, thanks to a Troy Brown punt return touchdown. Drew Bledsoe finished the game and helped the Patriots move on.

TOM BRADY WAS THE SUPER BOWL MVP THOUGH??

Does anyone remember what Tom Brady’s final stat line was in that Super Bowl?

16/27 141 Yards 1 TD

          The least amount of yards by a Super Bowl MVP since Super Bowl VI, when they were still figuring out what the forward pass was. Bart Starr in Super Bowl II had more yards than Brady. Actually going into the  final drive of the game Tom Brady stats were 11/19 88 Yards 1 TD.

88 YARDS! GOING INTO THE FINAL DRIVE!!

Yes, he did a nice job going down the field on a Rams defense playing prevent defense. Have you seen the final miraculous Brady drive in a while? 4 dump-offs and 1 pass down the middle to a wide open Troy Brown that put them in position for a Vinatieri field goal. If you forgot what the drive looked like you can view it here (Pretty funny how Madden kept on saying to knee it and go to overtime).

             Tom Brady did a great job staying poised and being a game manager. Just how does it make sense for people to say he is the best because of four super bowls, when those were not even his best seasons?

There are two stat lines below with each quarterback’s average season, which quarterback would you take?

Player Yards TDs INTs Completion Percentage

Super Bowl Winning Seasons

QB- A

3593

24.5 13 61.9

3

QB- B

4548

35.1 7.8 64.9

1

If you picked Quarterback A (No Idea why you did that) you picked Tom Brady from 2001-2006

If you picked Quarterback B you picked Tom Brady from 2007-2016.

The stats show Tom Brady’s play was on at a different level from 2007-2016 compared to his 2001-2006 seasons, but he won just one Super Bowl. Are you starting to see the problem with making Super Bowls a quarterback stat?

The first Super Bowl was won by the Patriots defense, forcing 3 turnovers and Tom Brady managing not turning the ball over (Ty Law should have been the MVP, by the way, with his pick-6). The Rams were honestly the better team, out-gaining the Patriots 427-267 yards, but the best team does not always win. Brady did much more leading those teams in the next Super Bowls, but Brady was given an unbelievable opportunity with those defenses and wouldn’t have won the first three without them.

Brady with Belichick’s Defenses

There is a pretty simple fact the talking heads of ESPN and that terrible show with Skip Bayless on FS1 are not talking about. Tom Brady has consistently played with a pretty good defense, Aaron Rodgers has not. Here are the defensive ranks for defenses based on points against during the Tom Brady Patriot years and the Aaron Rodgers Packer years:

gb-d

(Highlighted= Super Bowl Wins)

          To say Tom Brady has played with great defenses would be an understatement. 14 out of his 16 years as the Patriots’ starter, he has played with a top ten defense. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has played with a top ten defense just twice. He won the Super Bowl one of those years and lost in a wild card game where the Packers gave up 51 points in a 51-45 OT loss to the Cardinals. The fact that Aaron Rodgers has led these Packer defenses to the playoffs is an accomplishment in itself.

           You’ll notice the highlighted years are where the team won the Super Bowl. The Patriots defenses during Super Bowl years were ranked 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 8th. Rodgers won a Super Bowl with the 2nd rated defense. In conclusion, neither quarterback has won a Super Bowl without a top ten defense.

Rodgers Never had a Chance

            You may be thinking, “Ok, Rodgers hasn’t had great defenses, but I’m sure they stepped up in the playoffs!” In actuality…. no, not at all…they’ve played even worse. The Packers have actually scored at least 20 points in every playoff game Rodgers has started. 17 out of 17 Games! The Patriots on the other hand? In games where Tom Brady has started in the playoffs, the Patriots have failed to score at least 20 points 9 out of 33 games. Meaning that Brady’s offense scores at least 20 points in playoffs just 73% of the time compared to Rodger’s offense scoring at least 20 points 100% of the time.

          Back to the defenses. Brady has had much more support than Rodgers in the playoffs. Below is New England and Green Bay defenses stats in the playoffs including points allowed per game, points allowed in losses and their offenses points per game in the playoffs:

PA Per Game

PA Per Game in Losses

Offenses PPG

New England

20

26.44

26.54

Green Bay

26.625

36.28

28.56

          There is no getting around these statistics, the New England Patriots defenses have been good in the playoffs and the Green Bay Packers defense have stunk like spoiled cheese curds. julio-on-green-bayParticularly in games that knocked Rodgers and the Packers out of the playoffs, Green Bay has given up an average of over 36 points in those games. About ten points more than New England’s defense that knock Brady out of the playoffs. Rodgers offense averages more points per game than Brady’s offenses. In all playoff games the Patriots defense gives up 6 less points per game.

          How is that fair to compare Brady’s postseason record with Rodgers’? Aaron Rodgers has never had a chance to win multiple Super Bowls with the defenses he has had. In conclusion, Brady has had the defensive help he needed to win playoff games.

Aaron Rodgers Statistically Superior

          Aaron Rodgers has been the Packers starter for 9 years now, Tom Brady has been the starter for 16 years. Both players have put up hall of fame numbers, but what happens when you compare the two? Aaron Rodgers has the advantage in just about every stat on a per game basis. Don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself. These are average stats per started game:

Regular Season Average Started Game Stats

Player

TD INT Yards TD/INT Ratio

Comp %

Aaron Rodgers

2.19

0.53 270.35 4.125

65.1

Tom Brady

1.94

0.65 261.79 3

63.8

          Both are great average stats, Rodgers just has the edge on Brady for all of them including his ridiculous 4.125 Touchdown to Interception Ratio. To put this in perspective Tom Brady is second all-time in TD to INT ratio. For Aaron Rodgers to drop to a 3 TD to INT ratio he would have to throw 27 Interceptions without a touchdown. Tom Brady is an all-time great, but Rodgers numbers are just ridiculous.

Think it is different in the playoffs?

You’d be wrong….

Playoffs Average Started Game Stats

Player

TD INT Yards TD/INT Ratio

Comp %

Aaron Rodgers

2.25

0.63 278.63 3.6

63.5

Tom Brady

1.85

0.91 261.45 2.03

62.4

          Something that is very rarely talked about is the hike in interceptions Tom Brady throws from the regular season to the postseason. He is the all-time leader in playoff interceptions with 30. In order for Rodgers to break that interceptions record based on his playoff interception average, Rodgers would have to play 34 more playoff games in his career. Rodgers has a big increase in average yards per game and still has a very impressive 3.6 TD/INT Ratio.

“But Tom Brady is a more decorated player, look at his awards!”

Actually….

Awards

Seasons as Starter

MVPs

1st Team All-Pro

Aaron Rodgers

9

2

2

Tom Brady

16

2

2

I’ll actually take it one step further with amount of seasons with 4,000 yards, 30 Touchdowns, Single Digit Interceptions and a completion percentage of 65%

Elite Seasons

Seasons as Starter

4000 Yard Seasons 30 TD Seasons Single Digit INT Seasons

65% Comp. Percentage

Aaron Rodgers

9

6 6 6

6

Tom Brady

16

8 6 5

5

           Even with playing seven less seasons, Rodgers has as many MVPs, 1st Team All-Pro Selections, 30 TD seasons, single digit interception seasons and seasons with at least a 65% Completion Percentage. Yet, some people still don’t think Aaron Rodgers belongs in the all-time greats talk.

           So what am I missing here? If Rodgers stays at the pace he is on, he will equal the longevity of Brady and would have outperformed Tom Brady in the regular season and the playoffs. You know what it must be the rushing yards where Brady is better than Rodgers…

Rushing Per Started Game Stats

Rushes

Yards Y/A

TDs

Aaron Rodgers

3.63

18.5 5.1

0.19

Tom Brady

2.24

3.97 1.8

0.07

Nevermind.

Eye Test

This is a tale of two different ways to play the quarterback position. Tom Brady sits in the pocket and cuts through a defense with surgical precision. He drops back quickly and his timing with his wide receivers is impeccable. USP NFL: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRI S FBN USA MATom Brady takes care of the football, but is still not afraid to throw the deep ball.

          Aaron Rodgers is the gunslinger. He can throw to a wide receiver on time with accuracy and velocity. When things break down, it isn’t over for Rodgers, it is just the beginning. He circles out of the pocket, looks down the field, and slings it almost always off-balance. He also can take off and run if you give him too much space. Rodgers is a defensive coordinator’s worst nightmare as he will catch you with a late substitution and get a free play out of it. Give me the quarterback that can beat you every single way imaginable.

          This is a decision of which flavor you prefer. For me, watching Rodgers keeps me on the edge of my seat, because you never know what sort of magic he is going to pull off. Tom Brady may bring you that type of joy too. It is a choice of Snickers and Reese’s, Coke and Pepsi, Crown and Jack. There is no right answer, we can just sit back and admire the play of both.

Aaron Rodgers Historically

          Aaron Rodgers 2017 season will be the 10th season as a starter for the Green Bay Packers and it is time to move him into the all-time talks. In just 9 seasons he is ranked 11th all time in touchdowns, 23rd in passing yards, and is the only player in NFL history with a career Quarterback rating above 100 (104.1). Rodgers had a late start sitting behind Favre, but at 33 he could still have a chance to catch Peyton Manning’s touchdowns and passing yardage records. On his pace he would need to play seven seasons to break the touchdown record and nine seasons to break the passing yardage record. Just for fun… he would need to play 32 seasons to break Brett Favre’s interceptions record

           Rodgers still has some great years ahead of him and if he can play as well as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady did late in their careers, he should be considered the greatest of all-time.

Conclusion

          Obviously one cannot put Rodgers over Brady long-term just yet. Tom Brady has had a long, great, decorated career and is ranked among the top quarterbacks in every single category. However, for those quoting Tom Brady’s four super bowls is lazy analysis. Aaron Rodgers has been the overall better postseason player, however due to a lack of defense Rodgers only has one ring on his finger. Tom Brady and the Patriots are an example of great team success and the run they are on is a historic one. However, when ranking the top quarterbacks of all time why do so many people use Super Bowl rings? It isn’t basketball, where there are 5 people on the court, there are 22 different starting positions. Yes, the quarterback is an important part, but a good defense is an equally important part. So don’t scoff at people saying Rodgers over Brady now, just like no-one should criticize if you prefer Tom Brady over Aaron Rodgers.

great-rodgers

Give me Rodgers now as he makes throws no one in the game can make. Give me Aaron Rodgers when it is all said and done as the greatest ever. Aaron Rodgers with the highest TD/INT Ratio, highest touchdowns per game, lowest interception per game, highest career passer rating, 28 points per game in the playoffs, and the guy that can run and make every throw in the book. That is my choice as a quarterback now and forever.