By: Nick Radivoj
We are on to Week 11 of NFL action as we welcome back from bye the Bengals, Patriots, Jets, and Ravens. We wave farewell to the Dolphins, Seahawks, Buccaneers, and Jaguars for a week as they look to unwind with a nice drink on the beaches of Mexico. Week 10 brought us good fortune as we end up going 10-4 on the week bringing out season total to 78-69-4 (53%) on the year. Even though we are missing my Miami Dolphins for Week 11 there is still a lot of exciting action to be seen so let’s not waste any time tas we jump right in.
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Green Bay Packers (4-6)
When: 8:15 PM on 11/17
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 41.5
I wouldn’t quite count out the Packers just yet as they have a chance to make a fun towards one of the Wildcard teams in a weak NFC. The defensive game plan should be simple here for Green Bay as they should load the box to stop Derrick Henry and force Ryan Tannehill to beat you downfield. I loved this line when it was Green Bay -1 but still feel as if the Packers will come out victorious here by 4 and get their season back on track. Green Bay will lean on their ground game here to keep a strong Tennessee defensive line at bay led by star Defensive Tackel Jeffrey Simmons. Simmons can turn just about any game plan upside down with his pressure coming from the inside but as long as Green Bay is able to establish the run and let Aaron Rodgers facilitate to his playmakers outside then this one should get us to the window.
The Play: Packers -3
Chicago Bears (3-7) at Atlanta Falcons (4-6)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 50
The script has flipped for Chicago as they started the year off sluggish on offenser but have since found their groove scoring 28 or more in their last 4 games. Justin Fields has shown to be a threat with his legs as he’s able to break away from defenders in the open field with his blazing speed. I would normally play the over here given that Chicago has one of the worst defenses in the NFL but don’t think Atlanta’s offense has enough firepower to take advantage. I’m playing the Bears with the points here as I grab a key number of 3 looking towards Chicago to keep this one close with a field goal late deciding the winner.
The Play: Bears +3
Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Bills -8.5
O/U: 43.5
I would keep an eye out on the weather forecast in Western New York come Sunday afternoon as this total has already moved 3.5 points because of over 3 feet of snow predicted in the forecast. If the snow comes then that would point towards this game being controlled more on the ground than through the air which favors the Browns here who have one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL bolstered by RB Nick Chubb. Buffalo is built to play through the air utilizing on eof the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen. Snow will surely have an ipact on the passing attack and with Buffalo’s rushing attack being one of the worst in the NFL that leads me to grabbing the points here with Cleveland. Note: Buffalo’s run offense isn’t strong on paper as they lean on Josh Allen and the passing game to do most of their work for them.
The Play: Browns +8.5
Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5-1)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Eagles -6.5
O/U: 45
Finally, Washington takes down the undefeated Eagles in Week 10 as the 1972 Miami Dolphins can pop their champagne as they are still the only undefeated team in NFL history. Washington ran the ball on the Eagles over 40 times Monday night owning the time of possession battle an dlimiting the amount of possessions Philadelphia’s explosive offense could have. Philly will still be without DT Jordan Davis in this one which is a big concern as their rushing defense greatly drops when they are without the rookie defensive lineman. I believe the Eagles win this one but Indy will follow the same recipe that Washington did on Monday night giving a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor to this Eagles defense. Eagles get back in the win column but Interim HC Jeff Saturday is 2-0 against the spread.
The Play: Colts +6.5
New York Jets (6-3) at New England Patriots (5-4)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Patriots -3
O/U: 38.5
Both teams should be coming into this one well rested a they are coming off a Week 10 bye. This will be their second time playing this year with the first going New England’s way late in the second half. This game will depend mightily on the shoulders and mind of QB Zach Wilson. Wilson has been prone to costly turnovers over the course of his young career but if he is able to minimize those mistakes then New York should find themselves within the number here and even in the winners circle. Under is also a good play here with both defenses being strong but with it being difficult to beat teams twice in the NFL I ultimately land on grabbing the points with the road dog.
The Play: Jets +3
Los Angeles Rams (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-7)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Saints -4
O/U: 38.5
When you thought Los Angeles season couldn’t get any worse they are hit with new s of Coope rKupp heading to the IR for a minimum of 4 weeks. Ultimately, I expect Kupp to be shut down for the rest of the season because in 4 weeks time the Rams should be nearing elimination for the playoffs and shouldn’t risk further injury from their star WR. Luckily for the Rams, they should be getting their star QB back as Matthew Stafford is set to return from injury but is welcomed by an offense without his morning cup of coffee friend. New Orleans should be able to quiet a stagnant Rams offense throughout the afternoon and once the Saints get a lead behind their offensive weapons they will end up taking the air out of the football getting out of dodge with a win and an under victory. 2022 season is over for Los Angeles but they pushed all of their chips in to secure a Super Bowl last year so who really can complain.
The Play: Under 38.5
Detroit Lions (3-6) at New York Giants (7-2)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 46
The Play: Over 46
Carolina Panthers (3-7) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Ravens -12
O/U: 43
The bye week came at a great time for Baltimore as they have been it with the injury bug an offense over the past few weeks. I expect Coach Harbaugh to have a good game plan to face off against poor Panthers team which is looking more into 2023 than this year. Carolina will look to establish the ground game and if Baltimore is successful in shutting that down then they should have a relatively easy afternoon making QB PJ Walker beat them through the air. I normally hate laying a spread this high but see value in a well rested Ravens team putting it to a bottom feeder team in the Panthers right now.
The Play: Ravens -12
Washington Commanders (5-5) at Houston Texans (1-7-1)
When: 1 PM on 11/20
Line: Commanders -3
O/U: 40.5
Commanders take down the once undefeated Eagles on Monday night football and now travel on the road to face a bad Houston team. Houston has one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL which should see a heavy dose of both Brian Robinson Jr and Antonio Gibson throughout the afternoon as Washington will look to get themselves above .500 and back in the playoff push. Washington rushed over 40 times against the Eagles and I expect more of the same here against Houston. Washington’s defense is vulnerable more through the air as opposed to the ground game as they have one of the better defensive lines in the league but I don’t see Davis Mills being able to take advantage of a skeptical Washington secondary.
The Play: Commanders -3
Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) at Denver Broncos (3-6)
When: 4:05 PM on 11/20
Line: Broncos -2.5
O/U: 41.5
I end up shocking myself here as I’m laying the points here with Denver as opposed to playing the under which I have grown accustomed to in Broncos games. I expect star DB Patrick Surtain to end up following WR Devante Adams over the course of the afternoon quieting Derek Carr’s favorite target. One of the main reasons I love the Broncos in this spot her is the home field advantage of the altitude. Denver is used to their altitude as they deal with it on a daily asis but road teams coming in get wiped out from the altitude and end up drained come 4th quarter which is when Denver will secure this win for us. Denver will be without WR Jerry Jeudy which isn’t great for an already shaky offense but I will put my faith in Russel Wilson to make enough plays late to get us to the window.
The Play: Broncos -2.5
Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
When: 4:25 PM on 11/20
Line: Cowboys -1
O/U: 47.5
Trends are meant to be broken. A year ago Minnesota was victim to falling short in 1 score games but the script has flipped as they have dominated in that category so far thi season. They managed to escape out of Buffalo with a win after trailing by 3 scores late in the 3rd quarter. They have an exciting offense headlined by star WR Justin Jefferson who very well may have earned himself the title of best WR in the NFL. I’m looking forward to the matchup between Jefferson and star DB Trevon Diggs. Both teams are coming off overtime games last week which should lead to some exhaustion playing another 10 minutes of brutal football. Cowboys fell short to Green Baay last weekend but find themselves back in the win column as they take down one of the top dogs in the NFC.
The Play: Cowboys -1
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6)
When: 4:25 PM on 11/20
Line: Bengals -5
O/U: 41
TJ Watt is back for Pittsburgh and seems like he hasn’t missed a beat helping the Steelers overcome New Orleans last week at home. Cincy will still be without star WR Ja’Marr Chase here as he is still recovering from an injury suffered a month earlier. I expect the Steelers defense to have a great impact on this game similarly to what they did to Joe Burrow and Cincy earlier in the season in Week 1. Even without Chase, Cincy has playmakers sprinkled throughout their offense which makes them difficult to stop but have shown to be stagnant at times. Under is also a good play here with Pittsburgh having a great defense combined with a relatively robust offense behind rookie QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett has shown flashes of excellence but quickly followed by rookie mistakes which makes it hard to back Pittsburgh’s offense. Cincy comes back to Ohio with a win but fail to cover.
The Play: Steelers +5
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)
When: 8:20 PM on 11/20
Line: Chiefs -7.5
O/U: 50
We are getting close to having must win games for Los Angeles here soon as a loss here will bring the Bolts back down to .500 and in jeopardy of falling further in the standings. Both WR’s Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are practicing this week for Los Angeles and eyeing a return to action Sunday Night against Kansas City but another week of rest could be beneficial for both players with their given injuries. Similarly to last Sunday night, I will be grabbing the touchdown number here plsu the hook as I believe Justin Herbert and the Chargers keep this one within one score with the winner being decided late in the 4th quarter. Injuries have decimated this Chargers season thus far but with a win here they find themselves right back into the thick of it for the late season playoff push.
The Play: Chargers +7.5
San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)
When: 8:15 PM on 11/21 (Mexico)
Line: 49ers -8
O/U: 43.5
We had outside of the United States yet again as these NFC West rivals head down to Mexico city fo this contest. It’s looking like Arizona will be without their franchise QB yet agin as Kyler Murray looks to be sidelined with injury. I was planning on grabbing the points with the underdog if Kyler wound up playing aswe’ve seen this elite 49ers defense to struggle some against QBs who can make plays with their legs and go off script. Ultimately, I landed on the under here as 49ers should be able to hush Arizona’s offense with a backup QB at the helm. With not a lot of threat in a shootout I expect 49ers to run the ball while on offense to kill clock and shorten the game quickly behind the use of Christian Mccaffrey and Elijah Mitchell. Mexico unfortunately gets a snooze fest as we find ourselves with an under ticket in hand.
The Play: Cardinals +8
Thank God It's Saturday 