TGIS NFL Preview – Week 14

By: Nick Radivoj

I went back to the drawing board this week as I’ve hit a slump in NFL action going 5-10 last week bringing the season total to 96-95-4. I’m barely hovering above .500 but still losing action with the juice so let’s get back on track here. Only 13 games of NFL action this weekend as we ewave goodbye to the Falcons, Bears, Packers, Colts, Saints, and Commanders this weekend. Let’s get ourselves healthily back over .500 with a winning Week 14.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) at Los Angeles Rams (3-9)

When: 8:15 PM on 12/8

Line: Raiders -6

O/U: 44

Raiders have found their groove as of late utilizing their outside threat in Devante Adams and then bruising between the tackles with Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has looked like a man running wild as he’s trying to get paid this offseason either by the Raiders or someone else. Meanwhile, Rams look like a far different team from last years Super Bowl winner as they are missing a plethora of key options on both sides of the ball. If you are playing a side the best route to go is more than likely laying the points with Vegas but I’m playing the over in this game. Raiders should be able to score on the Rams causing them to play catchup early and often. Mcvay is still regarded as one of the best offensive minds in football so we will lean on him to get us 20 points here.

The Play: Over 44

New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Bills -9.5

O/U: 44

The Mike White experiment continues as he will enter his 3rd game as the starting QB for New York. The test doesn’t get easy as he gets ready to go up against the #1 seed in the AFC in Buffalo. New York was able to upset Buffalo last time utilizing a good blend between their round game and outside weapns and I can see tha thapening again in this spot. Buffalo hasn’t looked like themselves lately and if rookie DB sensation Sauce Gardner can slow down Stefon Diggs throughout the afternoon then they should have a chance here to upset them again. I’m grabbing the points here with New York as it’s just too many in a divional matchup with playoff implications on the line.

The Play: Jets +9.5

Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Bengals -6

O/U: 47

Deshaun Watson is back in action with 1 win under his belt. It had been almost 2 years since Watson played in an NFL game and it showed on Sunday against the Texans either skipping balls to wide receivers or being wide of the mark. I expect some of that rust to continue to knock off as he gets ready for a divional matchup against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Cincinnati will have revenge on their minds as they got blown out on Monday Night Football previously to this Browns team before Watson. I’m playing over as I believe this one has the looks of a shootout with a star-studded matchup headlined by Burrow and Watson. I expect big games from both wide receivers on opposite sides of the field in Ja’Marr Chase and Amari Cooper.

The Play: Over 47

Houston Texans (1-10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Cowboys -16.5

O/U: 45.5

With a line this large I don’t normally do this but I’m laying the ponts here with Dallas. Dallas is the superior team in this contest and should win easily by multiple scores. I expect Dallas’ defense to have a field day like they did on Sunday Night Football against the Colts and set up their offense with scoring opportunities deep in Houston territory. Dallas HC Mike McCarthy has seemed more than fine to run up scores against opposing teams throwing the ball late in contests that have already been secured as a win. Houston will continue their quest for the #1 pick in next years NFL Draft as they don’t have the players yet to compete in these types of games.

The Play: Cowboys -16.5

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Detroit Lions (5-7)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Vikings -2.5

O/U: 53

This should be one of the more exciting games of the weekend with an NFC North divisional matchup as the Lions try to get back in the NFC playoff hunt. Detroit has had one of the most explosive offenses all throughout the year and I don’t see that stopping now as Minnesota’s secondary looked susceptible to big plays downfield last week against the Jets. I expect the total to be spot on as it has one of the highest totals of the year and I still expect it to go over as a shootout is in order in Minneosta. Detroit contains explosive options in St. Brown and Swift but have now welcomed back first round WR Jameson Williams who has been ramping up and should add more excitement to this Lions offense. Minnesota will go toe to toe with Detroit behind their weapons in Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.

The Play: Over 53

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Titans -3.5

O/U: 41.5

Not in love this play as Tennessee is coming off a bye but I’m grabbing the number with Jacksonville on the road. I don’t expect rookie WR Treylon Burks to be active in this game as he recovers from a concussion. Without Treylon this Titans wide receiver room isn’t scary at all which should lead to the Jaguars loading up the box to try and stop RB Derrick Henry. If the Jaguars are able to limit Henry over the course of the afternoon then I have confidence in them to not only cover but upset the Titans. The Jaguars won’t be able to run the ball on Tennessee as they have one of the best defensive lines in football so this game will depend heavily on the shoulder of Trevor Lawrence. If Lawrence is able to play like the #1 pick he is then this underdog is live to steal one on the road.

The Play: Jaguars +3.5

Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Eagles -7

O/U: 45.5

It is finally time to stop fading the Eagles as they have proven time and time again to doinate opponents. Jalen Hurts showed off his passing capabilities last week as him and AJ Brown threw up some revenge stats last weekend against Tennessee. Tennessee was able to minimize the ground game from Philly but that didn’t matter over the afternoon with Hurts’ breakout this year. Staying away from the line, I’m playing the under in this game as I expect a tough divisional match up with plenty of runs coming from both sides. Saquon Barkley will be heavily leaned on again as New York doesn’t have many of outside weapons to depend on. Defensive lines will be stout in this one as we are able to take an under ticket to the window.

The Play: Under 45.5

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

When: 1 PM on 12/11

Line: Steelers -2.5

O/U: 37

Easiest one of the weekend as I grab the ponts with the Ravens here. Lamar Jackson will be out but backup QB Tyler Huntley has proven that he can come in and give Baltimore great spot starts to keep them afloat as they wait for Lamar to come back from injury. I expect Baltimore’s defense to shut down this Pittsburgh offense as Huntley will be able to do enough to not only cover but win this game for a tight AFC North between Baltimore and Cincinnati.

The Play: Ravens +2.5

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Denver Broncos (3-9)

When: 4:05 PM on 12/11

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 43

Kansas City is coming off 2 losses last weekend as they lost to Cincinnati for a 3rd straight time and also lost the #1 seed in the AFC. I expect a major bounce back from this Chiefs team as they line up against a Denver team with minimal offensive explosion. Denver has a phenomenal defense but going up against Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes is a tall task to keep them in this game. I expect Kansas City to come out swinging to get the team back on track. Kansas City wins by multiple scores here as Denver shows again an inability to consistently move the ball over the course of 4 quarters.

The Play: Chiefs -9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)

When: 4:25 PM on 12/11

Line: 49ers -3.5

O/U: 37.5

Under is the play and should be a relatively easy one. 49ers will be without their QB Jimmy G for an extended amount of time and will be rolling with rookie QB Brock Purdy. Brock looked decent in his action against the Dolphins coming in after Jimmy’s injury but he was still the last pick in last year’s draft for a reason. I expect Kyle Shanahan to have an excellent game plan for the young QB to get the ball out quick to their playmakers outside. The reason under is such a tasty play is that this San Francisco defense should lock down a underwhelming Tampa Bay offense. With their starting QB out, San Francisco will lean even more on their top defensive unit to keep games close for them if the offense hits a wall.

The Play: Under 37.5

Carolina Panthers (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

When: 4:25 PM on 12/11

Line: Seahawks -3.5

O/U: 43.5

Carolina is coming off their bye and travelling across a few timezones to face off against Seattle in this contest. I normally fade teams travelling across timezones but think it’s not as big of a problem in this game as Carolina should be well rested off their bye. I would have grabbed the points with Carolina earlier in the week as they were originally given 6 points but that was quickly bought down to the number we currently have at 3.5. Since we missed the value with the line we will instead play the over as we’ve seen over the past few weeks that Seattle’s defense is a tad fraudulent from what they have showed earlier this season. I expect Carolina to have some success of their own on offense and Seattle to do what they have been throughout this year with their outside weapons in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

The Play: Over 43.5

Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

When: 8:20 PM on 12/11

Line: Dolphins -3

O/U: 50.5

Miami is facing adversity as they suffered their first loss in what seems like a long time. Luckily, they should be welcoming back their starting LT Terron Armstead in this matchup which should help Tua have a clearner pocket to throw the ball to his outside weapons in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. I’m expecting a big day from the speedy duo as Los Angeles has been susceptible to big plays on the outside and in the run game. I’m laying the points here with Miami but playng the over could also be a safer play as the Chargers are playing for the playoff lives. Los Angeles has fallen back to .500 and with a loss here will face an uphill climb to make the playoffs so I expect Brandon Staley to be full throttle in this game to get the Chargers in the win column. Justin Herbert should be able to take advantage of a weak Miami secondary if he has enough time to get the ball out to his playmakers. I’m laying th epoins with the road warriors but this is sure to be one of the best games of Week 14.

The Play: Dolphins -3

New England Patriots (6-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)

When: 8:15 PM on 12/12

Line: Patriots -1

O/U: 44

After an exciting Sunday Night Football matchup we are welcomed by a relatively unexciting Monday night matchup. I expect an offense revitalized in New England as it seems the QB Mac Jones and several others have been calling out the playcalling and inability to score. With that, I will be playing the over as I believe New England gets their offense back on track and the Cardinals to have a good offensive game plan ready as they come off their bye. I expect Arizona to be able to stretch the Patriots out wide and downfield with Deandre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown.

The Play: Over 44

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