Week 14 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 87-67-1 (56.5%)

Week 14 Games of the Week

#10 Michigan (+8.5) at #1 Ohio State – Saturday 11:00am

Game Preview: THE GAME. Michigan hasn’t beat Ohio State since 2011. Michigan comes into this game hot winning their last four games by over 24 points. Ohio State had their first challenge last week against Penn State. They get challenged again against Michigan and win a close one.

Pick: Ohio State 31-24

#5 Alabama (-3.5) at #16 Auburn – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: I trust Mac Jones over Bo Nix. Auburn will be much tougher than Arkansas and Western Carolina however. If Alabama keeps the Auburn offense in check they should win by double digits.

Pick: Alabama 34-20

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Texas Tech (+10) at Texas UNDER 65– Friday 11:00am

Texas Tech hasn’t lost a game by more than 3 points since Mid-October. Texas hasn’t beat a team by more than 3 points since October 5th. This game will be close and low scoring.

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Virginia– Friday 11:00am

Virginia Tech has played great down the stretch. They’ll win and head to the ACC Championship to play Clemson.

Cincinnati (+11.5) at Memphis – Friday 2:30pm

The spread is too big for two similar AAC teams. This should be a great game.

South Florida (+23.5) at UCF – Saturday 8:00pm

All year UCF has proven to be an adequate team that doesn’t blow anybody out. South Florida covers.

Wake Forest (-3.5) at Syracuse – Saturday 11:30am

Reading the ACC is tough, but I know this much… Syracuse is awful. Take Wake.

#12 Wisconsin (-2.5) at #8 Minnesota UNDER 48.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. The weather in this game will be cold with cross winds so don’t expect a lot of points. Wisconsin hasn’t been great the last few weeks, but neither has Minnesota. Wisconsin wins.

Texas A&M (+17) at #2 LSU – Saturday 6:00pm

LSU’s defense has not been great. Kellen Mond will be able to put up points and keep the game close.

#7 Oklahoma at #21 Oklahoma State (+12) – Saturday 7:00pm

Oklahoma hasn’t beat a team by double digits the last four games. I don’t expect them to do it in an away rivalry game. Oklahoma State may pull the upset so definitely a money line sprinkle opportunity.

 

 

Final Playoff Contenders – Week 13

ELIMINATED AFTER WEEK 13: Oregon and Penn State

1. LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers

Resume

Record: 11-0

Best Wins: #5 Alabama, #10 Florida, #16 Auburn

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: Texas A&M, SEC Championship (#4 Georgia)

LSU has the best resume with wins over #5 Alabama, #10 Florida, and #16 Auburn. They have also looked dominant against inferior opponents except for their lackluster defense. If LSU finishes the year undefeated they will have the #1 or #2 spot on lock. LSU has also built their resume enough where they can afford one loss and still be firmly in the playoffs. However, don’t be surprised even if LSU finishes undefeated Ohio State jumps LSU.

Path to the Playoff: Don’t Lose Twice.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

780px-Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 11-0

Best Wins: #12 Penn State, #13 Wisconsin, #17 Cincinnati

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule:  @ #14 Michigan, Big Ten Championship

Ohio State has dominated everyone on their schedule. Their resume is slowly improving with the win over Penn State. The Buckeyes best quality opponents will happen over the next few weeks to end the year  Even with a loss to Michigan, Ohio State has done enough to get in as a one loss Big Ten champion as long as they win the Big Ten.

Path to the Playoff: Either 1. Finish regular season undefeated; or 2. One loss and Big Ten Champs

3. Clemson Tigers

orange

Resume

Record: 11-0

Best Wins: None

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: @ South Carolina, ACC Championship

Clemson has killed everyone on their schedule… except for a one point win against North Carolina. Since the Tar Heel game, Clemson hasn’t had a scare by any of their opponents. Clemson will finish the season without playing a Top 25 team except maybe Virginia Tech (that’s how bad the ACC is). As long as Clemson wins out they’re in.

Path to the Playoff: If they don’t win-out, they’re out.

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Logo

Resume

Record: 10-1

Best Wins: #10 Florida, #15 Notre Dame, #16 Auburn

Losses: South Carolina 20-17 OT

Remaining Schedule: @ Georgia Tech, SEC Championship (LSU)

The South Carolina loss is looking worse. However, it won’t matter if they beat LSU in the SEC Championship. The wins against Florida, Notre Dame, and Auburn have them currently as the best 1-loss team.

Path to the Playoff: If they win-out they are in

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama logo

Resume

Record: 10-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: #1 LSU 45-40

Remaining Schedule: @ #16 Auburn

They’ve won big against everyone except #1 LSU. Alabama will need to win out to have a chance. In that case, their best win will be against Auburn. What may trip up Alabama is a 1-loss Conference Champion. Some will say Bama doesn’t have a great win, but their Auburn win may be better than any of the other 1-loss conference champions. If Alabama wins out, you have to like their chances of getting in.

Path to the Playoff: Win out with Mac Jones looking dominant, Georgia loses once, and get ranked above the other 1-loss conference champion(s).

OR

Win out with Mac Jones looking above average, Georgia loses once, two loss Big 12 Champion, and a two loss Pac 12 Champion.

6. Utah Utes

2000px-Utah_Utes_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 10-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: USC 30-23

Remaining Schedule: Colorado, Pac 12 Championship

The Utes have a cake walk to end the regular season. A seven point loss to USC remains a dagger in the resume and their only chance at a quality win is in the PAC 12 championship against Oregon. The Oregon loss to Arizona State makes the quality win less impressive. Utah will be in the discussion if they win out, especially with their string of blow out wins. I believe a one loss Utah with a win over Oregon beats out a one loss Big 12 champion.

Path to the Playoff: Win out and Georgia loses.

7. Oklahoma Sooners

OU

Resume

Record: 10-1

Best Wins: #13 Baylor, #23 Iowa State

Losses: Kansas State 48-41

Remaining Schedule: @ #22 Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship (Baylor)

Oklahoma may finish the year with a bad loss and not many impressive wins. The Big 12 has eaten itself alive. Oklahoma did have an impressive comeback win over Baylor, but their playoff chances have taken a major hit if with their four straight average showings. Oklahoma is in a position where they are behind a one loss Utah right now.

Path to the Playoff: Win Out, Georgia loses, Alabama loses, two loss Pac 12 Champion

8. Minnesota Golden Gophers

1280px-Minnesota_Golden_Gophers_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 10-1

Best Wins: #10 Penn State

Losses: #20 Iowa

Remaining Schedule: #13 Wisconsin, Big Ten Championship

Yes they are undefeated and have looked impressive the past few weeks, but what hangs over the Golden Gophers is winning 3 terrible non-conference games by a total of 13 points. They now have a loss to an average Iowa team as well. However, winning out with wins over Wisconsin and Ohio State would probably put them in.

Path to the Playoff: Win out (this would create some chaos for the committee)

9. Baylor Bears

Baylor Logo

Resume

Record: 10-1

Best Wins: #22 Oklahoma State, #24 Iowa State

Losses: #7 Oklahoma 34-31

Remaining Schedule: Kansas, Big 12 Championship (Oklahoma)

Baylor blew it against Oklahoma. What Baylor needs is Oklahoma to win out and beat them in the Big 12 championship. Even after this I still think they need some help mostly because of their bad non-conference schedule and close games with bad teams (Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU). Baylor doesn’t pass the eye test so they have to win out and receive some help.

Path to the Playoff: Win out and need a lot of help

Conference Championship Paths

ACC Championship

ACC Atlantic

Clemson- Clinched

ACC Coastal 

Virginia- Clinches with win over Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech- Clinches with wins over Pittsburgh and Virginia.

Pittsburgh- Clinches with wins over Virginia Tech and Boston College, and a Virginia loss to Virginia Tech.

Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma- Clinches with a win against TCU or Oklahoma State.

Baylor- Clinches with a win against Texas or Kansas.

If Baylor or Oklahoma lose out these teams are still in contention: 

Oklahoma State, Texas, and Iowa State

Big 10 Championship

Big 10 West

Minnesota- Clinches with win over Wisconsin.

Wisconsin- Clinches with win over Purdue and Minnesota.

Big 10 East

Ohio State- Clinches with win over Penn State or Penn State loss to Rutgers.

Penn State- Clinches with win over Ohio State and Rutgers.

Pac 12 Championship

Pac 12 North

Oregon- Clinched

Pac 12 South

Utah- Clinches with wins over Arizona and Colorado; or a USC loss to UCLA.

USC- Clinches with win over UCLA and a Utah loss.

SEC Championship

SEC West

LSU- Clinches with win against Arkansas or Texas A&M.

Alabama- Clinches with win against Auburn and LSU losing to Arkansas and Texas A&M.

SEC East 

Georgia- Clinched

Week 13 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 77-66-1

Week 13 Game of the Week

#8 Penn State (+18.5) at #2 Ohio State – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: Ohio State is a week out from facing Michigan. However, this game is the biggest on Ohio State’s schedule and will determine who wins the Big Ten East. Penn State will be locked in, but does Ohio State get caught looking forward to its rival Michigan? Penn State has a good enough defense to keep Justin Fields from going wild. If Penn State wants a chance at winning they need a major improvement on offense from QB Sean Clifford. Ohio State wins, but Penn State keeps it interesting.

Pick: Ohio State 34-21

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

#21 Oklahoma State (-6.5) at West Virginia– Saturday 11:00am

The Cowboys in the last three weeks have beat Iowa State, TCU, and Kansas by a touchdown or more. I like Oklahoma State’s offense to continue that trend and put it on West Virginia (4-6).

Illinois (+15.5) at #17 Iowa– Saturday 11:00am

The most points Iowa has scored over the past six games? 26. Iowa does not have a high scoring offense. Illinois has turned it around and is actually bowl bound. Illinois keeps it within two touchdowns.

Kansas (+24.5) at #22 Iowa State – Saturday 11:00am

Another big spread in the Big 12 that I think will end up a close game. Iowa State is off a big win against Texas and a let down maybe coming. 24.5 is too many points for the Mad Hatter and Kansas.

#13 Michigan (-9) at Indiana – Saturday 2:30pm

Michigan is different team than the one that was blown out against Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, I still have not bought into Indiana as a top Big Ten team. Michigan should win by double digits even with Ohio State on the horizon next week.

Texas A&M (+14) at #4 Georgia – Saturday 2:30pm

Georgia’s offense has not improved. They’ve averaged 22 ppg in their last five games. A&M’s offense is good enough to put up points against the Dawgs and cover the spread.

Texas (+5.5) at #14 Baylor – Saturday 2:30pm

All Texas does is play close games and Vegas keeps putting them as the underdog. I actually like them to win this one in Waco. Baylor suffered a devastating comeback defeat against Oklahoma and I’m not sure how they will bounce back. Texas moneyline.

#25 SMU at Navy (-3.5) – Saturday 2:30pm

SMU will struggle to stop Navy’s offense. SMU gave up over 50 points the last two games. On the other hand, Navy has scored on average around 44 points in their last two AAC games. SMU loses a tough away game. 3.5 points won’t mean much in this high scoring affair. The over is also a possible play here.

Purdue (+24.5) at #12 Wisconsin – Saturday 3:00pm

Wisconsin hasn’t won a game by this spread since October 12. Purdue’s third string QB, Aidan O’Connor, came in and didn’t do bad against Northwestern and actually won the game by two points. Purdue covers.

#6 Oregon at Arizona State (+14.5) – Saturday 6:30pm

Believe in Herm Edwards. Oregon comes to town looking forward to their Pac-12 championship battle with Utah. Freshman QB Jayden Daniels has really developed and will be a key in keeping it close. I believe this will be a crazy one in Tempe with a potential upset. Never trust Pac-12 favorites down the stretch.

TCU (+18) at #9 Oklahoma – Saturday 7:00pm

TGIS will be there live.Oklahoma has lost to Kansas State and barely escaped Iowa State and Baylor in their last three games. 18 points is way too many against a decent TCU team. TCU’s defense will keep Oklahoma from running up the score. I would also not rule out a possible upset.

 

Final Playoff Contenders- Week 12

1. LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers

Resume

Record: 10-0

Best Wins: #5 Alabama, #10 Florida, #16 Auburn

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: Arkansas, #24 Texas A&M, SEC Championship (#4 Georgia)

LSU has by far the best resume with wins over #5 Alabama, #10 Florida, and #16 Auburn. They have also looked dominant against inferior opponents except for their lackluster defense. If LSU finishes the year undefeated they will have the #1 or #2 spot on lock. LSU has also built their resume enough where they can afford one loss and still be firmly in the playoffs.

Path to the Playoff: Don’t Lose Twice.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

780px-Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 10-0

Best Wins: #14 Wisconsin, #17 Cincinnati

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: #9 Penn State, @ #14 Michigan, Big Ten Championship

Ohio State has dominated everyone on their schedule. Their best quality opponents will happen at the end of the year (no Cincinnati and Indiana are not quality wins). Ohio State has done enough to get in as a one loss Big Ten champion as long as they win the Big Ten.

Path to the Playoff: Either 1. Finish regular season undefeated; or 2. One loss and Big Ten Champs

3. Clemson Tigers

orange

Resume

Record: 11-0

Best Wins: #24 Texas A&M

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: @ South Carolina, ACC Championship

Clemson has killed everyone on their schedule… except for a one point win against North Carolina. Since the Tar Heel game, Clemson hasn’t had a scare by any of their opponents. Clemson will finish the season without playing a Top 25 team (that’s how bad the ACC is). As long as Clemson wins out they’re in.

Path to the Playoff: If they don’t win-out, they’re out.

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Logo

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: #10 Florida, #15 Notre Dame, #16 Auburn

Losses: South Carolina 20-17 OT

Remaining Schedule: #24 Texas A&M, @ Georgia Tech, SEC Championship

The South Carolina loss is looking worse every week especially after the loss to Appalachian State. The wins against Florida and Notre Dame have them currently as the best 1-loss team. A second loss will knock them out of the playoffs and that second loss is likely with Texas A&M and LSU still left.

Path to the Playoff: If they win-out they are in

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama logo

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: #24 Texas A&M

Losses: #1 LSU 45-40

Remaining Schedule: Western Carolina, @ #16 Auburn

They’ve won big against everyone except #1 LSU. Alabama will need to win out to have a chance. In that case, their best win will be against Auburn. What may trip up Alabama is a 1-loss Conference Champion. Some will say Bama doesn’t have a great win, but their Auburn win may be better than any of the other 1-loss conference champions. If Alabama wins out, you have to like their chances of getting in.

Path to the Playoff: Win out with Mac Jones looking dominant, Georgia loses once, and get ranked above the other 1-loss conference champion(s).

OR

Win out with Mac Jones looking above average, Georgia loses once, two loss Big 12 Champion, and a two loss Pac 12 Champion.

6. Oregon Ducks

1238px-Oregon_Ducks_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: #16 Auburn 27-21

Remaining Schedule: @ Arizona State, Oregon State, Pac 12 Championship

Oregon’s only chance at a good win is against Utah in the PAC 12 Championship. The resume isn’t great as they played some average teams really close including Washington and Washington State. A loss to Auburn may end up being the tie breaker between Alabama and Oregon depending on what happens in the Iron Bowl with Mac Jones. Still, I think Oregon is in a position where if they win out they are in.

Path to the Playoff: Win Out and Georgia loses.

7. Utah Utes

2000px-Utah_Utes_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: USC 30-23

Remaining Schedule: @ Arizona, Colorado, Pac 12 Championship

The Utes have a cake walk to end the regular season. A seven point loss to USC remains a dagger in the resume and their only chance at a quality win is in the PAC 12 championship against Oregon. Utah will be in the discussion if they win out, especially with their recent blow out wins. I believe a one loss Utah with a win over Oregon beats out a one loss Big 12 champion.

Path to the Playoff: Win out and Georgia loses.

8. Oklahoma Sooners

OU

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: #13 Baylor

Losses: Kansas State 48-41

Remaining Schedule: TCU, @ #22 Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma may finish the year with a bad loss and not many impressive wins. The Big 12 has eaten itself alive. Oklahoma did have an impressive comeback win over Baylor, but their playoff chances would take a major hit if Texas beats Baylor next week. Oklahoma is in a position where they are behind a one loss Pac 12 champion right now.

Path to the Playoff: Win Out, Georgia loses, two loss Pac 12 Champion

9. Minnesota Golden Gophers

1280px-Minnesota_Golden_Gophers_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: #10 Penn State

Losses: #20 Iowa

Remaining Schedule: @ Northwestern, #15 Wisconsin, Big Ten Championship

Yes they are undefeated and have looked impressive the past few weeks, but what hangs over the Golden Gophers is winning 3 terrible non-conference games by a total of 13 points. They now have a loss to an average Iowa team as well. However, winning out with wins over Wisconsin and Ohio State would probably put them in.

Path to the Playoff: Win out (this would create some chaos for the committee)

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

penn_state_nittany_lions_2005-pres

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: #9 Penn State

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: @ #2 Ohio State, Rutgers, Big Ten Championship

The loss against Minnesota wasn’t really that tough of a blow. The fact remains Penn State still has to beat the Buckeyes for a chance. They would also get a chance to revenge their Minnesota loss in the Big Ten Championship. The close game against Indiana won’t do them any favors for the eye test though.

Path to the Playoff: Win out (Creates Chaos)

11. Baylor Bears

Baylor Logo

Resume

Record: 9-1

Best Wins: #22 Oklahoma State

Losses: #10 Oklahoma 34-31

Remaining Schedule: Texas, Kansas, Big 12 Championship

Baylor blew it against Oklahoma. What Baylor needs is Oklahoma to win out and beat them in the Big 12 championship. Even after this I still think they need some help mostly because of their bad non-conference schedule and close games with bad teams (Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU). Baylor doesn’t pass the eye test so they have to win out and receive some help.

Path to the Playoff: Win out and need a lot of help

Week 12 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 67-63

Week 12 Game of the Week

#4 Georgia at #12 Auburn (+3) Under 45 – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: A struggling Georgia offense plays a really good Auburn defense. A freshman quarterback faces a really good Georgia defense. In conclusion, this game will be a low scoring slug fest. Auburn wins in a close one.

Pick: Auburn 20-17

#10 Oklahoma at #13 Baylor (+10) – Saturday 6:30pm

Game Preview: Oklahoma has struggled with Kansas State and Iowa State. They are favored on the road at Baylor who has Gameday for the first time in about four years. This may be the best defense Jalen Hurts has faced and Baylor could slow their offense down. Baylor will be ready to play in a close one. Oklahoma pulls it out though.

Pick: Oklahoma 34-31

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

#5 Alabama (-17.5) at Mississippi State– Saturday 11:00am

This line only makes sense if Mac Jones is starting. Even if he is this line is too low. Alabama wins big in a bounce back game.

Tulane at Temple (+6)– Saturday 11:00am

Temple plays really good defense and Tulane’s QB struggles to throw the ball. Temple could win this game so I’m definitely taking the six points at home.

#19 Texas (+7) at Iowa State – Saturday 11:00am

It will be cold… but not enough to lay seven points with the Cyclones. Texas is the better team and not only will cover, but will win. Definitely worth a money line sprinkle.

Wake Forest (+34.5) at #3 Clemson – Saturday 2:30pm

Clemson will blow out the rest of their ACC opponents, but this will be the best team they face in the regular season. 34.5 is way too many points. Wake Forest keeps it interesting going into the second half… before they lose by 21. Clemson 45-24.

#8 Minnesota at #20 Iowa (-3) – Saturday 3:00pm

Minnesota’s historic run ends here. Iowa’s defense will do a much better job against Minnesota at home than Penn State did. Iowa wins a close low scoring game at home.

Rice (+14.5) at Middle Tennessee State – Saturday 3:30pm

Both teams are bad, The 0-9 Rice Owls can keep it close enough. I still don’t think Rice is THAT awful and could even get their first win here.

#1 LSU (-21) at Ole Miss OVER 65 – Saturday 6:00pm

LSU won’t stop scoring and they could get 50 points by themselves. Ole Miss has scoring potential on offense too. LSU wins big in a blowout high-scoring game.

South Carolina at Texas A&M (-11) – Saturday 6:30pm

South Carolina has gone down hill ever since beating Georgia. Texas A&M at home off the bye should win big and be ranked next week.

UCLA (+21) at #7 Utah OVER 51.5 – Saturday 7:00pm

Not only do I like UCLA to cover, but I think this is going to be a Utah loss. UCLA and their offense has turned it around and won their last three games by double digits. Utah is very beatable and has played some close games against average teams. The key will be UCLA slowing down Zack Moss and the running game. I like the over and UCLA to win throwing a huge wrench in the Pac-12 South.

Final Playoff Contenders

1. LSU Tigers

LSU Tigers

Resume

Record: 9-0

Best Wins: #4 Alabama, #11 Florida, #13 Auburn, #22 Texas

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: @ Ole Miss, Arkansas, Texas A&M, SEC Championship

LSU has by far the best resume with wins over #4 Alabama, #11 Florida, #12 Auburn, and #22 Texas. They have also looked dominant against inferior opponents. If LSU finishes the year undefeated they will have the #1 or #2 spot on lock. LSU has also built their resume enough where they can afford one loss and still be firmly in the playoffs.

Path to the Playoff: Don’t Lose Twice.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

780px-Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 9-0

Best Wins: #15 Wisconsin, #17 Cincinnati, #24 Indiana

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: @ Rutgers, #9 Penn State, @ #14 Michigan, Big Ten Championship

Ohio State has dominated everyone on their schedule. Their best quality opponents will happen at the end of the year (no Cincinnati and Indiana are not quality wins). Ohio State has done enough to get in as a one loss Big Ten champion as well.

Path to the Playoff: Either 1. Finish regular season undefeated; or 2. One loss and Big Ten Champs

3. Clemson Tigers

orange

Resume

Record: 9-0

Best Wins: None

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: Wake Forest, @ South Carolina, ACC Championship

Clemson has killed everyone on their schedule… except for a one point win against North Carolina. Since the Tar Heel game Clemson hasn’t had a scare by any of their opponents. Clemson will finish the season without playing a Top 25 team (that’s how bad the ACC is). As long as Clemson wins out they’re in.

Path to the Playoff: If they don’t win-out, they’re out.

4. Georgia Bulldogs

Georgia Logo

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: #11 Florida, #16 Notre Dame

Losses: South Carolina 20-17 OT

Remaining Schedule: @ #13 Auburn, Texas A&M, @ Georgia Tech, SEC Championship

The South Carolina loss is looking worse every week especially after the loss to Appalachian State. The wins against Florida and Notre Dame have them currently as the best 1-loss team. A second loss will knock them out of the playoffs and that second loss is likely with a tough road of Auburn, Texas A&M, and the SEC championship

Path to the Playoff: If they win-out they are in

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama logo

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: #1 LSU 45-40

Remaining Schedule: @ Mississippi State, Western Carolina, @ #13 Auburn

They’ve won big against everyone except #1 LSU. Alabama will need to win out to have a chance. In that case, their best win will be against Auburn. What may trip up Alabama is a 1-loss Conference Champion. Some will say Bama doesn’t have a great win, but their Auburn win may be better than any of the other 1-loss conference champions. If Alabama wins out, you have to like their chances of getting in.

Path to the Playoff: Win out, Georgia loses once, Baylor loses once, Minnesota loses once, and get ranked above the other 1-loss conference champion(s).

6. Oregon Ducks

1238px-Oregon_Ducks_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: #13 Auburn 27-21

Remaining Schedule: Arizona, @ Arizona State, Oregon State, Pac 12 Championship

Oregon’s only chance at a good win is against Utah in the PAC 12 Championship. The resume isn’t great as they played some average teams really close including Washington and Washington State. A loss to Auburn may end up being the tie breaker between Alabama and Oregon depending on what happens in the Iron Bowl.

Path to the Playoff: Win Out, Georgia loses, Baylor loses, Minnesota loses, Alabama loses

7. Baylor Bears

Baylor Logo

Resume

Record: 9-0

Best Wins: #25 Oklahoma State

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: #10 Oklahoma, #22 Texas, Kansas, Big 12 Championship

Here comes Baylor’s toughest part of the schedule with Oklahoma and Texas back-to-back. The only way I see Baylor in it is if they win out. Mostly because of their bad non-conference schedule and close games with bad teams (Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU). Baylor doesn’t pass the eye test so they have to go undefeated.

Path to the Playoff: Win out

8. Oklahoma Sooners

OU

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: #22 Texas

Losses: Kansas State 48-41

Remaining Schedule: @ #12 Baylor, TCU, @ #25 Oklahoma State

Oklahoma may finish the year with a bad loss and not many impressive wins. The Big 12 has eaten itself alive including OU. One point wins aren’t going to impress the committee, OU has to win out.

Path to the Playoff: Win Out, Alabama and Georgia lose

9. Minnesota Golden Gophers

1280px-Minnesota_Golden_Gophers_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: #9 Penn State

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: @ #23 Iowa, @ Northwestern, #15 Wisconsin, Big Ten Championship

Yes they are undefeated and have looked impressive the past few weeks, but what hangs over the Golden Gophers is winning 3 terrible non-conference games by a total of 13 points. However, winning out with the rest of their schedule would be impressive and the committee would look the other way.

Path to the Playoff: Win out or 1 loss Big Ten Champs over Ohio State (the latter creates chaos for the committee)

10. Penn State Nittany Lions

penn_state_nittany_lions_2005-pres

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: #9 Penn State

Losses: None

Remaining Schedule: #24 Indiana, @ #2 Ohio State, Rutgers, Big Ten Championship

The loss against Minnesota wasn’t really that tough of a blow. The fact remains Penn State still has to beat the Buckeyes for a chance. They would also get a chance to revenge their Minnesota loss in the Big Ten Championship.

Path to the Playoff: Win out

11. Utah Utes

2000px-Utah_Utes_logo.svg

Resume

Record: 8-1

Best Wins: None

Losses: USC 30-23

Remaining Schedule: UCLA, @ Arizona, Colorado, Pac 12 Championship

The Utes have a cake walk to end the regular season. A seven point loss to USC remains a huge dagger in the resume and their only chance at a quality win is in the PAC 12 championship against Oregon. Utah will be in the discussion if they win out, but they need some help.

Path to the Playoff: Win out and some chaos.

Week 11 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 62-56

Week 11 Game of the Week

#2 LSU at #3 Alabama (-6) OVER 62.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: Last week was the battle for the SEC East… this is a battle for the SEC West with an almost guaranteed playoff spot on the line. Alabama’s offense will be LSU’s defense biggest challenge of the season. They’ve struggled this year and as long as Tua is healthy the points will come. The biggest matchup will be LSU’s offense vs. Alabama’s defense. This isn’t the same units from last year. Alabama’s secondary is underrated and they will challenge Joe Burrow. That doesn’t mean there won’t be points. Expect a lot of them with Bama winning a high scoring matchup.

Pick: Alabama 41-31

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Temple (-1) at USF – Thursday 7:00pm

An almost pick’em game that I don’t think should be. Temple is better than USF.

UCF at Tulsa (+17)– Friday 6:00pm

My two theories last week were Tulsa plays teams close and UCF hasn’t been blowing out teams out as much as years past… When my theories collide I have to go with it, I’m a man of principle.

#12 Baylor at TCU (+2.5) – Saturday 11:00am

If you’ve been following TGIS you know I think Baylor is under ranked. That doesn’t mean I think they are a great football team that is going undefeated though. Baylor loses this weekend for the first time.

Western Kentucky at Arkansas (-1) – Saturday 11:00am

Arkansas in a pick’em game against a 5-4 Conference USA team… think new QB John Stephen Jones gives the Hogs a spark and the win.

Purdue at Northwestern UNDER 39 – Saturday 11:00am

Purdue is on its fourth string QB who is a Sophomore walk-on. Northwestern has averaged 4 points per game over its last 4 games. This game may end 6-3. No way they get 39 points.

Stanford (-3) at Colorado – Saturday 2:00pm

Basically Colorado is not a good football team and Stanford is starting to turn it around. Also, Colorado’s best player Laviska Shenault has been hampered by injury for most of the season. Stanford wins by 10.

#16 Kansas State (+7) at Texas OVER 57.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Seven points is way too much in a pick’em game and 57.5 points is not enough. This is a Texas team that was in a 50-48 game against Kansas at home. Texas wins a close shootout.

Appalachian State at South Carolina (-5) – Saturday 6:00pm

App State undefeated season was ended and now must go to Columbia to face the Gamecocks. For a team that beat Georgia and played a close game with Florida, 5 points is not enough. Cocks by double digits.

San Jose State (+8) at Hawaii – Saturday 10:00pm

This isn’t last years San Jose State Spartans. These Spartans are decent. They’ve played Boise State and San Diego State tough and even beat Army. Surely they can cover over a touchdown spread against Hawaii on the island.

College Football Playoff Rankings Projected Top 25

The rankings come out Tuesday night and it will be the first chance to see the Playoff Committee’s thoughts. A common theme we’ve seen from the committee  previously is a term I refer to as anchoring. Below is “anchoring” defined and the rankings.

Anchoring– Head-to-head will be the determining factor between two teams with the same amount of losses. The winner of the head-to-head matchup will not drop below the losers ranking. Most of the AP Top 25 voters have not figured this out yet. Below are the teams guaranteed to be ranked over the loser in their head-to-head matchup:

  • Florida over Auburn
  • Wisconsin over Michigan
  • Michigan over Iowa
  • Michigan over Notre Dame
  • Memphis over SMU
  • Memphis over Navy
  • Texas over Oklahoma State

THE RANKINGS:

1. LSU Tigers

Record: 8-0

LSU Tigers

LSU has by far the best resume with wins over #11 Florida, #12 Auburn, and #24 Texas. They have also looked dominant against inferior opponents which is key for the eye test. LSU will be named #1 Tuesday night.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 8-0

780px-Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svg

Ohio State has dominated everyone they’ve played. What gives them the edge over Alabama is the win against #14 Wisconsin. Alabama does not have a win like that on their resume.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 8-0

Alabama logo

As previously stated, the Tide have blown out everyone. Sure, the strength of schedule is not great, but dominant wins puts them at #3.

4. Clemson Tigers

Record: 9-0

orange

Clemson has killed everyone on their schedule… except for a one point win against North Carolina which is why Clemson is number 4. There is no argument for Clemson above Alabama. Both have had weak schedules, but only one team has a single digit victory. When you’re talking about the top teams you have to nit-pick.

5. Penn State (8-0)

Penn State has more high quality wins than Clemson beating #15 Michigan and #18 Iowa. Where Clemson has the slight edge is Penn State has had some games where they don’t look great  (17-10 win against Pitt). The eye test keeps Clemson slightly above.

6. Georgia (7-1)

Blowouts and a win against #11 Florida have Georgia easily settled as the top 1 loss team.

7. Baylor (8-0)

The Bears have been impressive playing most of the Big 12 and still undefeated. Baylor even has a few quality wins against #16 Kansas State and fringe top 25 team Iowa State. However, very close wins against bad teams like West Virginia and a weak non-conference of Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, and Rice weaken the resume.

8. Oklahoma (7-1)

The Sooners have been dominant except for a close loss to #16 Kansas State, a team Baylor beat 31-12. This keeps them behind undefeated Baylor.

9. Oregon (8-1)

Baylor’s weakness is Oregon’s strength in terms of non-conference schedule. Oregon has a close loss to #12 Auburn, but have gone unbeaten in Pac-12 wins. If they were more dominant against inferior opponents, the Ducks would be ranked higher.

10. Utah (8-1)

Utah is a solid team with just one slip up this year with a 30-23 loss to USC.

11. Florida (7-2)

Florida has a quality win against #12 Auburn and forgivable losses against #1 LSU and #6 Georgia. Other than these games Florida has proven to be a solid football team.

12. Auburn (7-2)

A high quality non-conference win against #9 Oregon, but they’re anchored behind Florida due to the head-to-head loss. A 3 point loss to #1 LSU shouldn’t hurt them.

13. Minnesota (8-0)

They beat non-conference opponents South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern by a TOTAL of 13 points. Their strength of schedule is abysmal.

14. Wisconsin (6-2)

The Badgers have struggled recently, but still have the head-to-head against Michigan.

15. Michigan (7-2)

Quality wins against #18 Iowa and #19 Notre Dame with understandable losses against #5 Penn State and #14 Wisconsin. Overall have a solid strength of schedule.

16. Kansas State (6-2)

The big win against a very good #8 Oklahoma team has them here.

17. Wake Forest (7-1)

Wake Forest may have a great record, but they really haven’t played anyone and play down to their weak competition. The 62-59 loss to Louisville is not great.

18. Iowa (6-2)

Their best win is against Iowa State. At least the close losses to #5 Penn State and #15 Michigan are impressive.

19. Notre Dame (6-2)

The Irish over the last three games were demolished by Michigan 45-14 and squeaked out close wins against USC and Virginia Tech. They have a pretty average resume.

20. Cincinnati (7-1)

Their one loss is to #2 Ohio State… it wasn’t close though.

21. Memphis (8-1)

Have a Power Five win against Ole Miss. Still not sure how they lost to Temple though.

22. SMU (8-1)

The win against TCU keeps them in the top 25.

23. Boise State (7-1)

The win against Florida State doesn’t look as impressive anymore.

24. Texas (5-3)

Texas will benefit in the rankings with their tough non-conference game against #1 LSU.

25. Navy (7-1)

They’ve blown out some of their AAC opponents, but the loss against Memphis anchors them.

Week 10 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 55-52

Week 10 Game of the Week

#8 Georgia vs #6 Florida (+6.5) – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: The battle for the SEC East. The winner takes a two game lead and a 95% chance of winning the division. Florida has looked like the better team all year. Their defense is very good and Kyle Trask has command of the offense. Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense has looked lethargic and lack game breakers at receiver. Florida wins this game and the SEC East outright.

Pick: Florida 21-17

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

West Virginia (+19) at #12 Baylor Under 57.5 – Thursday 7:00pm

I think Baylor is a good football team, but covering that many points on a Thursday night is tough. As for the under, West Virginia has scored 14 points the last two weeks against defenses not as good as Baylor’s. Think 31-14 sounds about the right score where both win. One of these are guaranteed to hit.

#14 Michigan (-19) at Maryland – Saturday 11:00am

Michigan is getting hot at the right time and Maryland is bad at the wrong time. Maryland has lost to Purdue by 36 and Minnesota by 42 this month. Michigan should cover easily.

UTSA (+38.5) at Texas A&M – Saturday 11:00am

A&M beat Texas State by 34 at the start of the year, think 38.5 will be too many points for them to cover against UTSA. That’s it. That’s my logic.

Houston (+23) at UCF – Saturday 11:00am

Houston kept it close against SMU and I think they can do the same against UCF. Houston hasn’t been beaten by over 20 points all season. I know they don’t have D’Eriq King, but it still isn’t a bad football team. Meanwhile, UCF’s Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has been a little inconsistent. This spread is too damn high!

TCU at Oklahoma State OVER 59 – Saturday 2:30pm

Oklahoma State loves scoring points and not playing defense. TCU can score as well with Freshman QB Max Duggan settling in as the starter. Lots of points.

#9 Utah at Washington UNDER 47.5 – Saturday 3:00pm

Utah has given up a TOTAL of 23 points over their last four games. Utah will slow Washington’s offense down and the under will hit.

Mississippi State at Arkansas UNDER 58.5 – Saturday 3:00pm

I don’t know why this point total is so high. Arkansas and Mississippi State both struggle on offense. Mississippi State doesn’t have an awful defense either. Expect a low scoring ugly game.

Tulsa (+10.5) at Tulane – Saturday 3:00pm

Tulsa has lost by 1 point to #24 Memphis, 11 points to #17 Cincinnati, and 6 points in OT to #15 SMU. Tulsa likes to keep things close! Tulane on the other hand has lost two in a row. Tulsa covers and maybe even wins in New Orleans. Money line sprinkle!

#15 SMU (+6.5) at #24 Memphis – Saturday 6:30pm

SMU is the best of the Group of 5 and getting points against an inconsistent Memphis team. Almost a touchdown spread in what should be a pick’em game is too good to pass up. Take SMU.