Big 12 Championship: Texas over Kansas State

1. Texas Longhorns

Projected Record: 11-2

Wins: Rice, Wyoming, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, BYU, TCU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State (Big 12 Championship)

Losses: Alabama, Kansas State

I know. I know. “You can’t trust Texas.” But I can’t find a football reason not to trust this team. Offensively, I like Quinn Ewers’ potential, the running back room is fine, they bring back everyone back to what will be the best offensive line in the Big 12, and the wide receiver room is legitimately a top 3 unit in the nation with Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell (Georgia transfer), Isaiah Neyor, Jordan Whittington, and Five-Star Freshman Johntay Cook. On defense, the Longhorns return many of their key starters that finished 1st in the Big 12 in points per game. Texas is by far the favorite to win the Big 12… which would be their first since 2009.

2. Kansas State Wildcats

Projected Record: 9-4

Wins: Southeast Missouri, Troy, UCF, Oklahoma State, TCU, Houston, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State

Losses: Missouri, Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas (Big 12 CHampionship)

Kansas State’s offense could be better than last year with the entire offensive line back and returning quarterback Will Howard. I say that even with losing their best player, Deuce Vaughn. Defensively, I think the front is strong, but they lack some size on the interior of the defensive line. If they get the FCS transfer corners to step up (big question) this will be a dangerous team in the Big 12.

3. Oklahoma Sooners

Projected Record: 9-3

Wins: Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati, Iowa State, UCF, Kansas, West Virginia, TCU

Losses: Texas, Oklahoma State, BYU

2022 was more than disappointing for Oklahoma, finishing with a losing record and 3-6 in conference play. However, the offense was pretty good when Dillon Gabriel was healthy. He returns, and even though I have no idea who will step up in their receiving room and take over the #1 position left by Marvin Mims, the offense will be fine with OC Jeff Lebby. The offensive line also lost a few starters, but I see them being set at the tackle position with Tyler Guyton at Right Tackle and the Stanford transfer Walter Rouse at Left Tackle. Defense is the unit that needs to improve if the Sooners want to finish in the top of the Big 12. With the amount of talent Oklahoma has returning, the transfers they acquired in the portal, and Venables defensive mind… I trust there will be a jump. Overall, I project the Sooners to finish in the top quarter of the division, but making the Big 12 championship? I don’t know if I am buying it. The easy schedule gets them to 9 wins.

4. TCU Horned Frogs

Projected Record: 8-4

Wins: Colorado, Nicholls State, Houston, SMU, West Virginia, BYU, Texas Tech, Baylor

Losses: Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma

Sonny Dykes returns for season number two after a dream season where TCU beat Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl and nothing else happened after that. While the Horned Frogs did lose quite a few players to the NFL draft, they lessened the impact with transfers. Chandler Morris will also be starting at QB after winning the QB battle for the second year in a row (Max Duggan took over due to injury). I’m still not in love with the running back room with Emani Bailey at starter and Trey Sanders taking 2nd team reps. But the receiver room is deep/intriguing with transfers John Paul-Richardson, Jojo Earle Jack Bech, Jaylon Robinson, and Dylan Wright. Savion Williams also returns to this receiving room. Damonic Williams is the star at the defensive line at nose tackle, but as for the other defensive line starters?? Huge concern. The strength of this TCU defense will be on the back end with solid starting corners Josh Newton and Avery Helm and returning safeties Bud Clark and Mark Perry. Overall, I expect more of a regression to the mean with a solid 8-4 season.

5. Kansas Jayhawks

Projected Record: 7-5

Wins: Missouri State, Nevada, BYU, UCF, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Cincinnati

Losses: Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Call me a Lance Leipold believer after turning Kansas into a bowl team for the first time since Mark Mangino was the coach in 2008. As for 2023, the offense is a really solid unit that brings just about everyone back including star quarterback Jalon Daniels. It is the questionable defense holding them back after finishing in the bottom twenty in the nation last year. The Jayhawks took a bunch of transfers on the defensive line with the hopes of improvement, while they return the entire secondary. This team takes another step as long as the defense play is even just average.

6. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Projected Record: 7-5

Wins: Wyoming, Tarleton State, West Virginia, Houston, Baylor, Kansas State, UCF

Losses: Oregon, BYU, TCU, Kansas, Texas

Texas Tech enters year two of the Joey McGuire era as the nation’s pick to be the “Dark Horse in the Big 12”. While I am on board with McGuire’s recruiting and believe the Red Raiders have upside…. I’m not ready to project them to make the Big 12 championship. The offense is an experienced unit at quarterback with Tyler Shough (8-0 in games he was healthy in 2022) and also at receiver, especially Jerrand Bradley. The offensive line is the question mark to see if they improve after being highly inconsistent last year. Defensively, there are exciting players on the defensive line, especially with Syracuse transfer Steve Linton and 6’6 285 pound defensive lineman Myles Cole. Overall, this is a solid football team whose upside, if everything hits, is the Big 12 championship game.

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Projected Record: 7-5

Wins: Central Arkansas, Arizona State, South Alabama, Kansas, West Virginia, Cincinnati, BYU

Losses: Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, UCF, Houston

Oklahoma State had a mass exodus via the transfer portal. But the Cowboys still kept some of their best players and this is usually when Mike Gundy is at his best, as the underdog. The schedule also sets up extremely well. It is crazy to think about, but their starting quarterback is Alan Bowman who was starting games for Texas Tech from 2018-2020. His number one option will be returning leading receiver Brennan Presley. On defense, they transition to a 3-3-5 defense and believe they have a sleeper nose tackle with Utah Tech’s Justin Kirkland. But I still have questions in the secondary. Overall, Gundy will find a way to make a bowl game.

8. UCF Knights

Projected Record: 7-5

Wins: Kent State, Boise State, Villanova, Baylor, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Houston

Losses: Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech

UCF is an intriguing new Big 12 team as their recruiting has taken a step up since joining the conference and the Knights already had decent talent on their roster. John Rhys Plumlee will lead the offense again with a solid duo of former Iron Bowl wide receivers Kobe Hudson and Javon Baker. The offensive line is also good enough to hold up in the Big 12. Along the same theme, the defensive line has some intriguing talent. It’s going to be the back seven that may not be up to Power 5 standards, but linebacker Rian Davis from Georgia should help. Overall, I see this as a team that will compete in the middle of the Big 12 in its first year.

9. BYU Cougars

Projected Record: 6-6

Wins: Sam Houston, Southern Utah, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Iowa State

Losses: Arkansas, Kansas, TCU, Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

BYU is a team I am higher on than others. The offense is sneaky good with transfers QB Kedon Slovis (Pitt) and running back Aidan Robbins (UNLV). The offensive line will be decent with the depth added in the transfer portal and returning starters including LT Kingsley Suatamala. While the defense will not be great, I project there will be improvement as they rely heavy on transfers (including players from new DC, Jay Hill, last coaching job Weber State). Playing in Provo isn’t easy and BYU is ready to play spoiler.

10. Baylor Bears

Projected Record: 5-7

Wins: Texas State, Long Island, Cincinnati, Houston, West Virginia

Losses: Utah, Texas, UCF, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU

Year 3 of head coach Dave Aranda and we absolutely nailed the prediction last year. The AP poll had this team as a 2022 preseason top 10 team and TGIS told you that was nuts (Baylor ended up finishing 6-7). Question number one is how much does QB Blake Shappen develop after beating out Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robertson in camp? This team has a good running back with Oklahoma St. Dominic Richardson, but there are quite a bit of new starters up at the offensive line and an average receiving group. The offense is average! Defensively, the secondary is incredibly young after losing a few starters to Arkansas and there is a weakness on the defensive line as I do not see them being able to replace Siaka Ika. Sorry Waco… I’m not in love with this Baylor team.

11. Iowa State Cyclones

Projected Record: 5-7

Wins: Northern Iowa, Ohio, TCU, Baylor, Kansas

Losses: Iowa, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, BYU, Texas, Kansas State

It turns out both me and the Iowa State players were betting on games last year. Iowa State already announced a few suspensions of players for gambling, including (now former) starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers. Expect more players suspended as we get closer to their first game. I still expect Matt Campbell’s underdog Cyclone team to pull out some surprising wins.

12. West Virginia Mountaineers

Projected Record: 4-8

Wins: Duquesne, UCF, BYU, Cincinnati

Losses: Penn State, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor

This is it. This will be head coach Neal Brown’s last season. Other than the five starters returning on the offensive line and Devin Carter as the top wide receiver, the offense is filled with below average starters. Defensively, the Mountaineers lost a large number of players and must rely heavily on transfers, especially in the secondary. This is a bottom of the conference team where the rebuilding seems to be never ending.

13. Cincinnati Bearcats

Projected Record: 4-8

Wins: Eastern Kentucky, Miami (Ohio), Iowa State, Houston

Losses: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia, Kansas

The Cincinnati offensive line is going to be highly questionable following all the departures. Add in a shaky starter in Emory Jones and a new receiving group… this won’t be one of the top units in the Big 12. The defense will also take a step back after losing some key guys including Ivan Pace, although they still have his brother Deshawn at nickel. The corner transfer from Florida, Jordan Young, made an immediate impact this spring and will be CB1. This defensive unit is unpredictable as they are transfer-reliant. Below average offense and average defense projects to a rough start for the Bearcats in the new Big 12.

14. Houston Cougars

Projected Record: 4-8

Wins: UTSA, Rice, Sam Houston, West Virginia

Losses: TCU, Texas Tech, Texas, Kansas State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, UCF

Texas Tech former starting quarterback Donovan Smith steps in after showing promise with tools, but not production. The offense suffered huge hits in the portal after losing several offensive line projected starters and their playmaker RB Alton McCaskill, I don’t see Houston having a scary offense anymore. Defense is also a wildcard as they are transfer-led. This might be a rough first year for the Cougars as they enter Big 12 play.