Not part of the rant of the week but… fall weddings. Seriously.

I love weddings. Seeing people you haven’t seen in a while, tearing up the dance floor, and an open bar. But can’t we do that in the spring when football isn’t on?

“The world doesn’t revolve around football.” Um yeah, it kind of does. Haven’t you noticed the streets are empty during the Super Bowl? Or how entire college campuses shut down for the football game.

Congratulations you get to love each other for the rest of your life or until the divorce attorney steps in, but I would love to celebrate that in the spring because you’re kind of ruining everyone’s marriage to their favorite college team. Really selfish of you to pick your marriage over my marriage with Alabama (got lucky this week with a noon kickoff against Louisiana-Lafayette).

So to the people that have a fall wedding, don’t complain about people being on their phones watching the game, you knew the consequences. You knew people were going to watch.

I have two weddings this fall, one is this weekend. You bet I am going to bring an extra portable charger for my phone so I can see the top ten matchups in Happy Valley and South Bend on a Saturday night. What’s worse is I have a wedding the night of November 3^rd with a former Alabama fraternity brother. I’ll give you a moment to check the calendar.

*Checks calendar* OH MY GOD

I know right? Alabama at LSU in Death Valley and most definitely will be at night. I honestly don’t know what’s going to happen. I’ll make sure to give all the details of the atrocities that will happen if there are no TVs or bad cell service.

My advice for fall weddings? Don’t. But back to actual football.

The Playoffs will become clearer after these next two weeks. Ohio State and Penn State look to play for the division championship already, and the winner of the Notre Dame and Stanford game will also be in really good shape. I think this week they gave us a nap time as the best games seem to start at Noon and 6:30pm. But just like last week, everyone is on upset alert (except Alabama) so sleep with one eye open on the couch and let’s get to the RUN DOWN!!!

Run Down (All Times EST)

Saturday Morning Hangover Games

#12 West Virginia (-3.5) at #25 Texas Tech, Noon ESPN2

Shoot, the Texas Tech students may actually go to this game after their upset win against Oklahoma State last week. They should be use to the 11am local time kickoff by now, but what they are not used to is being ranked.

The Texas Tech defense will be tested by QB Will Grier and one of the best offenses in the country. The Mountaineer defense has also been surprisingly pretty good.

Gambling Advice: Take West Virginia. They’ve played really well and I think the season will prove Oklahoma State is more bad than Texas Tech is good. 

Syracuse at #3 Clemson (-24.5), Noon ABC

REVENGE GAME!! Remember when 4-8 Syracuse upset Clemson on a Friday night? Dabo Swinney ‘members. Syracuse is much better this year starting 4-0 and in my opinion should be ranked. But this game isn’t in the Carrier Dome, it’s down south. Clemson should keep sleep walking to the playoffs.

Gambling Advice: Syracuse covering should seem like the obvious pick. But Clemson wants to make up for last year so I wouldn’t bet the house.

Six Pack Deep Games

Baylor at #6 Oklahoma (-23.5), 3:30 ABC

Well Oklahoma went to overtime with Army, guess they can go to overtime with just about anybody. Baylor only lost by 8 points last year so this could be a potential surprise game. This is one you watch, but once Kyler Murray starts slinging it all over the field against the Baylor defense just change the channel.

Gambling Advice: I have no clue. That’s my advice. I guess Oklahoma? Bees? I’m Ron Burgundy?

#18 Texas (-8.5) at Kansas State, 3:30 FS1

Texas is back! No I already told you that wasn’t true, but Kansas State is bad this year. Like really bad. Like beat South Dakota by 3 bad. Like maybe not even bowl eligible bad. If Texas struggles here we can officially put Texas back on the not actually back list like we do every year.

Gambling Advice: The game being in Manhattan makes me pause, but there should be no reason Texas doesn’t win by double digits.

#14 Michigan (-14) at Northwestern, 4:30 FOX

I told you the afternoon games were a snoozer. Northwestern has surprised me by not being better this year with some decent defensive talent and a senior quarterback. We will see if Michigan dominating Nebraska was a fluke. They won’t be able to run the ball as well against Northwestern.

Gambling Advice: Northwestern loses by 10. Michigan won’t have as much offense.

Whiskey Night Games

Florida at #23 Mississippi State (-7.5), 6:00 ESPN

The return of Dan Mullen to Starkville is a great appetizer before the top ten match-ups. Florida’s loss to Kentucky actually doesn’t look bad anymore. Plus Dan Mullen knows every player still in Starkville better than Joe Moorhead himself.

Also, I have finally declared that Mississippi State is not actually good despite my preseason optimism.

Gambling Advice: Florida covers and may even win 

#4 Ohio State (-3.5) at #9 Penn State, 7:30 ABC

This is basically to see who will win the Big Ten. I don’t see anybody but these two teams winning it unless Wisconsin pulls the upset in the championship game. Penn State has the homefield advantage which is the only reason I pause, but Ohio State has the better team and better quarterback. Look for a lot of points especially with the Buckeyes missing Nick Bosa.

Gambling Advice: Ohio State wins by 7 and the Over 70 points hit. 

#7 Stanford at #8 Notre Dame (-5.5), 7:30 NBC

If you would’ve asked me this game a week ago I would’ve said Stanford. But after that debut of new Notre Dame starting quarterback Ian Book, I’m a believer in the Irish. Now Ian Book was facing Wake Forest who somehow gave up 41 points to Boston College, but the offense looked totally different. Stanford somehow won against Oregon even with only rushing for 70 yards, but Notre Dame has a tough defense too.

Gambling Advice: Notre Dame wins at home by 7. The Over 54 hits too as I’m a full believer in the new Notre Dame offense.

#20 BYU at #11 Washington (-17.5), 8:30 FOX

BYU’s defense is not that bad and Washington’s offense is not very good. The over/under in this game shows that at 45.5. I honestly have no idea why the line is so big here, I really feel BYU could even pull the upset.

I think after this week people will finally see that Washington is not very good.

Gambling Advice: New Gambling strategy. Bet against Washington when they’re double digit favorites. BYU loses by a field goal.

One-Eye Open Game

#19 Oregon (-3) at #24 California, 10:30 FS1

Oregon lost a game they dominated. Until the collapse, I would venture out to say they looked like a top ten team in the nation. Now they have to regroup and play a Cal team that have won close games against North Carolina and BYU. I don’t know if the kids at Berkeley will be studying or at the football game, but I know I will be

Gambling Advice: Vegas says to never take a road team off a heartbreaking defeat… But I’m not Vegas. I’m a sucker that says Oregon is 20 points better than California and should not have a problem.

Top Bets of the Week

Season Record: 24-15-2
Last Week’s Record: 7-7-1

Little bit of a rough week last week (thanks TCU). We’re turning it around this week though!

1. Louisiana Tech at North Texas (-7.5)- BET UNT. They have won every game by at least 23 points
2. BYU (+17.5) at Washington
3. Oregon (-3) at California
4. Boise State at Wyoming Over 45.5- Boise State plays to fast for this over not to hit. They may score 40 points by themselves
5. Purdue (-3.5) at Nebraska- Purdue can score. Nebraska cannot. No idea why the line is this low
6. Pittsburgh at UCF Over 65- I quickly learned I was dumb for thinking UCF couldn’t have an over 77.5. Well Pitt’s defense is bad and so is UCF’s. This is me learning
7. West Virginia (-3.5) at Texas Tech
8. Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-20.5)- Arkansas may lose every SEC game by 20 points
9. Texas (-8.5) at Kansas State
10. Stanford at Notre Dame Over 54

Bonus Picks

1. Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State
2. Ohio State at Penn State Over 70
3. Virginia at NC State (-5)– NC State is the better team and at home
4. Michigan at Northwestern (+14)
5. Tennessee at Georgia Over 52- Georgia’s defense is not the same. Georgia also has scored 40+ points every game. So If Tennessee can just do a little we have the easy cover.

Rant of the Week

Well this new redshirt rule has made its mark. The new College Football rule allows a player to play in four games and still use his redshirt for the season. It was first looked at as a benefit to the coaches as they could get younger players playing time without having to burn a redshirt. But the players have took full advantage of their new right.

The past few weeks players have transferred from major programs including Clemson, Oklahoma State, and Auburn. Honestly, good for them. If a player’s situation is bad enough to transfer after four games, they should be allowed to. I’ve never been in favor of players being able to leave whenever they want with no consequences, but this seems like a good balance to keep College Football from going full free agency.

Clemson QB Kelly Bryant transferred after getting beat out by true freshman QB Trevor Lawrence. The new rule gave this senior another chance at a senior year, something he wouldn’t have had before this rule.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State had WR Jalen McCleskey transfer after not getting enough touches and Auburn had three players transfer to try and find new opportunities elsewhere. The new rule offers a great out for players in a bad situation.

On the other hand, this could leave coaches in a bind if too many players transfer. Clemson has had numerous quarterbacks transfer and now is stuck with only three scholarship quarterbacks. Nebraska has had to turn to a former walk-on as they only have two scholarship quarterbacks. The increase of transfers, especially at the quarterback position, will lead to coaches offering more quarterbacks so they do not end up in this situation. Overall, the new rule has shown to be a major win for the players.

I’m pretty sure I warned everyone before this past week. Whenever you think you have a bad lineup of games, that is where upsets happen. Boy, was I right! There were four top 25 upsets this week and Oklahoma went to overtime with Army. Virginia Tech lost to some team called Old Dominion (No, not the country band), Texas Tech shocked Oklahoma State, Texas is starting to think they’re back after beating TCU, and Mississippi State is actually not good.

Tyler’s Thoughts

No Texas is Not Back

I honestly had to re-watch this game to assess if Texas was really back. A fuzzy memory from the bars in Uptown Dallas was the cause.

But after further review: Texas is not back. TCU was the better team for almost a full three quarters of that game. However, a key to the Texas 15-point win was the turnover battle. TCU had four costly turnovers including two interceptions and a fumble by young QB Shawn Robinson. Robinson actually had an alright day other than the crucial turnovers.

If these teams played a rematch I’d lean towards TCU, but the after game assessment is TCU is worse than we thought and Texas is just a little better than we thought. I look at Texas as a seven or eight win team.

By the way, one of the worst decisions I saw all week was TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson punt on 4^th and 4 with 2:36 left in the fourth quarter down 15 points. Time is your enemy at that point. Punting took over a minute off the clock and backed TCU up to their own 22. It was a give up play and one of the worst coaching decisions of the year.

Where did the ACC go

After the Virginia Tech loss to Old Dominion, Clemson and Miami look like the only real contenders. Duke is undefeated, but unproven. It looks like Clemson should have a nice walk to the College Football Playoffs. I say should, but they’ve been known to trip to bad teams (last year loss against 4-8 Syracuse). If they lose, they could be looking at a similar situation as Wisconsin last year where they may not have enough quality wins to make it.

Oregon Blew it

Oregon absolutely gave the game away to Stanford. Oregon was the best team through all four quarters, but two costly fumbles gave Stanford a chance. They outgained Stanford in yardage 524-398, and held Stanford to just 71 yards rushing! Not only that, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a game where the quarterback completes over 90% of his passes in regulation and doesn’t win the game. Justin Herbert was fantastic and I’m still processing how exactly they lost that game.

Now I did pick Oregon to make the College Football Playoff and that pick was looking very good through the first half. Oregon would’ve controlled the Pac 12 North with the tie-breaker against Stanford. I actually really like Oregon to beat Washington in three weeks as I see no shot of Washington’s offense being able to keep up with Oregon’s in Eugene. The Pac 12 North race should be a fun one.

Notre Dame has found their guy

Not sure if you paid attention to this noon game, but the Notre Dame offense looks ten times better with Ian Book starting at quarterback. He completed 73 percent of his passes and threw for 325 yards against Wake Forest in a 56-27 win. Notre Dame could be a legitimate playoff contender if the offense keeps this up.

Tua May Not Play a 4^th quarter until November

Tua is gone til November. Texas A&M was no competition for Alabama and their October looks like a breeze. They play Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee before the November 3^rd game against LSU. Missouri has the only shot of forcing Tua into the 4^th quarter if QB Drew Lock can score enough points, but that’s doubtful. ESPN has taken notice and scheduled the next two Alabama games for noon. This may be the first case of a team being so good they get moved to noon because it’s over by the end of the first quarter.

My Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. West Virginia
7. Stanford
8. Oklahoma
9. Penn State
10. Notre Dame
11. Auburn
12. Miami
13. UCF
14. Washington
15. Kentucky
16. Duke
17. Michigan
18. Oregon
19. California
20. BYU
21. Wisconsin
22. North Texas
23. Syracuse
24. NC State
25. South Carolina

AP Mess of the Week

What a week for the AP Poll. The voters have legitimately forgot about games that happened less than three weeks ago. The problem is the voters are ranking week by week instead of looking at the total resume. There are so many examples to choose from:

#18 Texas (3-1) lost to Unranked Maryland (3-1) in Week One 34-29

#15 Wisconsin (3-1) lost to #20 BYU (3-1) in Week Three 24-21

#25 Texas Tech (3-1) lost to Unranked Ole Miss (3-1) in Week One 47-27

But my pick goes to undefeated #24 California being ranked behind #20 BYU even though California beat BYU on the road in Week Two 21-18. BYU doesn’t have a better record or the head-to-head advantage yet the AP voters think BYU should be ranked ahead? I get that BYU has an impressive win over Wisconsin, but it does not erase the fact that California went on the road and took down BYU. We need the Playoff Committee to straighten this out soon.

Week 4 is a lackluster lineup with only two top 25 matchups this week. But with this comes a time for reflection. Remember in Week 0 when we stayed up excited for New Mexico State and Wyoming because football was back? That was only one month ago. Let’s keep the football is back attitude all year! Plus, it is quiet weekends like these where upsets happen. Let’s start the run down!

Run Down (All Times EST)

Friday Night Frenzy

Florida Atlantic at #16 UCF (-13.5), 7:00 ESPN

CLEAR YOUR FRIDAY NIGHT! CANCEL YOUR DATE! INVITE THE BOYS OVER! We have Lane Kiffin AKA Joey Freshwater going up to Orlando for a Florida showdown. The winner will be in prime position for the top team in the group of five. UCF quarterback struggled against South Carolina State throwing 3 interceptions in a 38-0 win. He won’t be able to get away with that against Florida Atlantic.

Gambling Advice: I like FAU to keep it close. Maybe even pull the upset. Also the over/under is set at 77!! FAU doesn’t have a bad defense and neither offense has lit it up. Hammer the under.

Washington State at USC (-3.5), 10:30 ESPN

USC has been terrible. Sam Darnold must’ve really been holding that team together last year. As for Washington State they’ve won by more than 20 points each game with their toughest opponent being Wyoming. Who knows what’ll happen… which makes for a great Friday night.

Gambling Advice: Stay away. The Cougars are unproven and USC is bad. This could go either way, but if you have to bet go Washington State.

Saturday Morning Hangover Games

#2 Georgia (-14) at Missouri, Noon ESPN

If you want to take a nice nap that’s ok too. Georgia should be in no trouble against a team that had to sneak out of Purdue with a last second field goal. Missouri QB Drew Lock is very good and the offense could put up some points, but the defense is nowhere near being able to stop Georgia.

Gambling Advice: Georgia wins in a blowout.

#8 Notre Dame (-7.5) at Wake Forest, Noon ABC

Notre Dame is playing ,so the game is going to be close. They couldn’t blow out Ball State and barely survived Vanderbilt. Let’s see how they handle going on the road to Winston-Salem.

Gambling Advice: Wake Forest keeps it close and maybe wins. Take Wake Forest and the points.

6-Pack Deep Games

#22 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama (-27), 3:30 CBS

The Aggies made it interesting against Clemson, but this Bama team is a totally different animal. Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t played an entire game yet because of how big their leads are. The Aggies are the toughest defense Alabama has played, but it won’t be good enough to slow down the offense with Tua on the field.

Gambling Advice: Alabama’s covered the past three games, the strong bet is for them to cover again. Also over 61 with Kellen Mond scoring a few touchdowns.

#17 TCU (-3) at Texas, 4:30 FOX

No. Texas is still not good. They beat a bad USC team that featured a few very questionable calls (how was that not a safety??). TCU on the other hand put on a very strong performance against Ohio State. Think everyone can head to 6^th street a little early with TCU winning by double digits.

Gambling Advice: ALL THE MONEY ON TCU

Whiskey Night Games

#14 Mississippi State (-10) at Kentucky 7:00 ESPN2

I still think Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in college football. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are the only two teams to average more than 50 ppg and give up less than 10 ppg. Kentucky is alright, but Mississippi State wins by double digits.

Gambling Advice: Bet Mississippi State

Texas Tech at #15 Oklahoma State (-13), 7:00 FS1

Oklahoma State may be one of the most surprising teams in college football. Their defense is actually pretty good and Taylor Cornelius does a good job managing the offense. Texas Tech has found their rhythm over the past few weeks on offense including putting up 63 points against Houston. I still can’t get over them only scoring 27 points against Ole Miss though.

Gambling Advice: Think Oklahoma State wins a close one. Also bet the under 77.5. Oklahoma State hasn’t gave up more than 21 points all year. Texas Tech should obviously score more than that, but they won’t get to 78.

#7 Stanford (-2) at #20 Oregon, 8:00 ABC

A really good Pac-12 matchup. Oregon was my pick to be the surprise team at the start of year and so far they haven’t disappointed. But Stanford has also looked really good even though their win against USC looks less impressive. Saturday night in Eugene will be tough and I think the game will be close.

Gambling Advice: Not confident, but give me Oregon and the two points.

#18 Wisconsin (-3)  at Iowa, 8:30 FOX

Can Wisconsin avoid losing 2 in a row? That would turn “Jump Around” into “Sit Down.” Wisconsin really has not been that impressive at all in the past three games. Iowa holding Iowa State to 3 points looks more impressive after Iowa State scoring 27 points against Oklahoma. Iowa is a good football team and the home game at night will be a major advantage.

Gambling Advice: Iowa in a close one. Take the points. Also 43.5 is a very low over/under. Think the over hits.

One-Eye Open Game

Arizona State at #10 Washington (-17.5), 10:30 ESPN

Huskies continue the Pac-12 at dark tradition from last week. The offense looked horrible last week against Utah and was a much closer game than it seemed. Arizona State also had a tough loss against San Diego State.

Gambling Advice: Washington’s offense right now looks like it can barely score 17 points. They’re supposed to cover by 17.5 points? Bet Arizona State in a potential upset.

Top Bets of the Week

Season Record: 17-8-1
Last Week’s Record: 9-5

1. TCU -3 at Texas
2. North Texas -13.5 at Liberty– They just beat Arkansas by 27 points and the closest game has been a 23 point win. They can handle beating Liberty by 14.
3. Georgia -14 at Missouri
4. Miss State -10 at Kentucky
5. Nebraska +19.5 at Michigan– Nebraska isn’t good, but they have a little bit of defense. That’s enough to keep it within 19.5 points.
6. FAU at UCF Under 77
7. Boston College -6.5 at Purdue– How is Purdue going to stop AJ Dillion? Answer: They’re not going to be able to.
8. NC State -5 at Marshall– NC State is much better than Marshall. They cover the 5 points easily.
9. East Carolina +24 at South Florida– South Florida barely beat Illinois. How are they going to cover 24 points against East Carolina?
10. Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Under 77.5

Bonus Picks

1. Kansas State at West Virginia -16– West Virginia has a lot of offense. Kansas State is bad. West Virginia is going to win by 20+
2. Pittsburgh -4.5 at North Carolina– North Carolina has been off for a week and still has players suspended. Pittsburgh should win.
3. Arizona State +17.5 at Washington
4. Clemson -17 at Georgia Tech– Georgia Tech has looked awful. I think Clemson finally puts together a solid blowout this week.
5. Florida Atlantic +13.5 at UCF

Rant of the Week

My rant this week is about having nothing to rant about. Why is everyone being so rational? Nobody is saying the Big Ten is the best conference, a terrible team is playoff bound, or arguing strength of schedule. It is extremely early and I know in about one month I’m going to have five things to rant about, but right now there is nothing.

I even went on twitter trying to get triggered. I’ve done everything this week and nothing has helped. Maybe I’m just not grouchy enough. I’m not old enough to be yelling at clouds. I’m just not cut out for this college football writing stuff.

But then I remembered there is one absolute terrible college football analyst with the most ridiculous takes. A guy that could spin just about anything into a terrible take. Let’s see what terrible take he has for the week!

*Opens Twitter, Searches Danny Kanell, Scrolls past tweets*

I give up. Here’s your rant about nothing. Sorry for wasting the past 5 minutes of your life.

Here come the top ten upsets! Wisconsin and Auburn were both upset by double digit underdogs BYU and LSU. Those were not the only upsets as the Big Ten had seven teams lose to unranked nonconference teams. The most since 1936! And there were people that said the Big Ten was the best conference…

Overall it was a pretty exciting week 3 and next week conference play picks up. Here’s some thoughts from the action on Saturday.

Tyler’s Thoughts

LSU has the best resume in the country

It may not be sexy. But LSU keeps on beating good teams. They’ve beaten #21 Miami and #9 Auburn which is by far the best resume out there. LSU still has major challenges awaiting including three straight games starting October 13^th against Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama.

If the playoff committee met today though, you’d have a hard time convincing me they wouldn’t be in the top 4.

It’s Alabama’s world, we are just living in it

 For about two minutes I thought Ole Miss could make it interesting. DK Metcalf broke loose on a go route for a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the game. After that, Alabama made Ole Miss look like a high school defense. I honestly want to know what a full game of Tua looks like.

But the biggest surprise was the Alabama secondary. Ole Miss has three legitimate NFL receivers and they could not move the ball. Taking out the 75 yard opening pass, Jordan Ta’amu went 6/21, 58 yards, and 2 INTs. The defense is a strength again for Alabama. 

Time to pump the brakes on Oklahoma 

I was all in on Oklahoma after the first two weeks of football. Week 3 made me reassess. The offense is fantastic again and Kyler Murray is an explosive athlete at quarterback. However, this defense is rough.

Iowa State, who scored 3 points against Iowa last week, had their backup quarterback throw for 360 yards against Oklahoma. If the secondary can’t figure it out, there are going to be some shootouts against teams like TCU, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Not to mention if they have to play elite teams like Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State in the playoffs.

Pac 12 South may be the worst division of all-time 

There is only one team in the Pac-12 South that is undefeated through three games. Colorado is the only undefeated team and they needed a last second hold against 1-2 Nebraska. It is incredible that either Colorado, Arizona State, Utah, Arizona, USC, or UCLA will be in the Pac-12 championship. The winner of the Pac-12 North is going to roll over whoever wins the South.

My Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. LSU
5. Clemson
6. Oklahoma
7. Mississippi State
8. Stanford
9. West Virginia
10. Penn State
11. Auburn
12. Notre Dame
13. Oklahoma State
14. Oregon
15. Virginia Tech
16. Miami
17. UCF
18. TCU
19. Washington
20. Texas A&M
21. Iowa
22. Michigan
23. Wisconsin
24. Duke
25. North Texas

AP Mess of the Week

There’s honestly nothing too bad this week. Having LSU ranked sixth is a little low considering their resume, but it’s debatable. I guess I will focus on a specific voter this week… Soren Petro.

Soren has Alabama the 3^rd ranked team in the nation behind Clemson and Georgia. Now I don’t know if Soren has a television in Leawood, Kansas or he just hates the Tide, but how can you watch Alabama and not think they’re the top team in the nation? They’ve dominated on both sides of the ball. I do not understand how a 1-point win against Texas A&M screams that Clemson is the number one team in the nation Mr. Petro.

YA I DID TOO JAMES FRANCO.

Instead this dang hurricane is out here wreckin’ our football! Brilliant, CTE-free, football scientist Danny Kanell had the great idea of not canceling the football games until everyone has traveled to the place where the hurricane is supposed to hit:

It may be news to Danny, but the goal of hurricane evacuation is to get out of the way of the hurricane. Maybe at Florida State, Kanell should have got out of the way of a few more Miami Hurricanes then he would be able to see this clearly. But I will go easy on him since Florida State and the ACC are a dumpster fire.

In all seriousness, stay safe East Coast.

Now moving onto the football that isn’t cancelled, we have our rundown of the week!

The Run Down (All Times EST)

Thursday Happy Hour Game

Boston College (-5.5) at Wake Forest, 5:30 ESPN

Yes, you read that right. A 5:30 game. Boston College goes from playing Holy Cross to traveling to play the Demon Deacons. Heisman hopeful AJ Dillon should run wild against a Wake Forest team that barely escaped the Green Wave in New Orleans. No, I’m not talking about a sea of Dos Equis, I’m talking about the Tulane Green Wave.

Gambling Advice: Take Boston College, they’ll win by double digits.

Saturday Morning Hangover Games

#5 Oklahoma (-17) at Iowa State, Noon ABC

REVENGE GAME!! Last year Iowa State went to Norman and pulled off the upset. This year Oklahoma has been killing everybody. Sure they haven’t had much competition with UCLA and FAU, but their offense looks legit. Iowa State on the other hand scored 3 points against Iowa last week and have a hurt quarterback.

Gambling Advice: OU smokes them. Take Oklahoma.

Florida State (-3) at Syracuse, Noon ESPN

Just how far are the Seminoles going to fall. The Willie Taggart era hasn’t started smoothly with a blowout loss to Virginia Tech and close game against Samford. We will see if Florida State can turn it around in the Carrier Dome.

Gambling Advice: Stay away. Florida State is unpredictable right now which is never good for betting.

6-Pack Down Afternoon Games

Vanderbilt at #8 Notre Dame (-14), 2:30 NBC

It’s always nice seeing a SEC team go into South Bend, even if Vanderbilt doesn’t exactly scream SEC atmosphere. Notre Dame is coming off a not impressive 8-point win against Ball State. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt actually has been playing some decent football against weaker opponents.

Gambling Advice: Take Vanderbilt and the 14 points. They may not win, but they’ll cover. Vanderbilt has a decent defense and Notre Dame’s offense has only averaged 24 points a game. Might as well take the Under 52 points while you’re at it.

#12 LSU at #7 Auburn (-9.5), 3:30 CBS

Best game of the week. SEC Football. Top 15 Matchup. This is what fall is all about. Both of these teams have had impressive non-conference wins, but Saturday will show which one is the real threat to Alabama in the SEC West.

Gambling Advice: I don’t get the 9.5-point spread. I think it is going to be a close game and I’m not confident who is going to win. But give me LSU and the points.

#17 Boise State at #24 Oklahoma State (-2.5), 3:30 ESPN

The best group of five team with a legitimate power five matchup. Nobody is talking about how good this Boise State team is. They have a legitimate quarterback in Brett Rypien and a very good defense. Oklahoma State’s quarterback, Taylor Cornelius, on the other hand hasn’t played as well. Think Boise State is the better team and comes out with a win in Stillwater. Cowboys fans will need a few Payne County Painkillers at Copper Penny (You Shotgun a Red Bull with Alcohol in it… so I’ve heard).

Gambling Advice: Boise State +2.5 and take the over 62.5.

Houston (-1) at Texas Tech, 4:15 FOX

Red Raiders and Cougars in Lubbock. Tech students will be glad it’s not a 11am kickoff, but it could be the last non-conference game for Kliff Kingsbury. Especially with a 1-2 start before Big 12 play even starts. Houston blew out an unimpressive Arizona team and I think they win a close one against Texas Tech.

Gambling Advice: Bet Houston.

Whiskey Night Games

#1 Alabama (-21) at Ole Miss, 7:00 ESPN

The Rebels have offense, but absolutely no defense. Tua may accidentally throw for 500 yards. The Alabama secondary will be tested, but Bama hasn’t gave up at least 30 points since Deshaun Watson in the 2016 National Championship. Ole Miss will keep it closer than last year when they lost 66-3, but Alabama still wins big. At least the Rebels still have the Grove. And a $75 cover at the Library.

Gambling Advice: Alabama, Alabama, Alabama

#4 Ohio State (-12.5) vs. #15 TCU, 8:00 ABC (Arlington)

The first test for Ohio State. Dwayne Haskins and the Buckeye’s offense has looked elite against mediocre competition. TCU’s defense will be a little bit more of a test. The TCU offense isn’t bad also as they’ve scored 40+ points against non-FBS competition. This is going to be new QB Shawn Robinson’s first test.

Gambling Advice: Ohio State wins by two touchdowns and the Over 60 points hits

#22 USC at Texas (-3), 8:00 FOX

Honestly both of these teams aren’t very good. They’re big name College Football programs that have very little offense. USC scored just 3 points against Stanford and Texas hasn’t scored more than 30 points all season. Texas could only beat Tulsa by seven points. I guess enjoy 6th street because both of these teams are extremely average this year.

Gambling Advice: Take USC +3

One-Eye Open Game

#10 Washington (-6.5) at Utah, 10:00 ESPN

Have to stay up for this one because it could be a Pac-12 After Dark upset. Top ten team traveling to play a late night game in Utah sounds like an upset recipe to me.

Gambling Advice: Stay Away, unless you need some entertainment. Then I’d go Utah and the points

Top 10 Bets of the Week

1. LSU (+9.5) at Auburn
2. Missouri (-7) at Purdue– Purdue is not very good and Missouri can score some points. Mizzou by double digits.
3. USC (+3) at Texas
4. Alabama (-21) at Ole Miss
5. Boise State (+2.5) at Oklahoma State
6. Ohio State vs. TCU (Over 60)
7. Georgia Southern at Clemson (Over 44.5)– This line confuses me. Georgia Southern has scored 30+ the past two weeks and Clemson could score 45 points by themselves. I’d watch the weather though.
8. Boston College (-5.5) at Wake Forest
9. Houston (-1) at Texas Tech
10. Vanderbilt (+14) at Notre Dame

Bonus Picks

1. Vanderbilt at Notre Dame (Under 52)
2. Boise State at Oklahoma State (Over 62.5)
3. BYU (+21) at Wisconsin– Wisconsin hasn’t covered the last two weeks. BYU isn’t a bad team and Wisconsin struggles blowing these teams out.
4. Rutgers (+3) at Kansas– I get it. Kansas won last week. But they’re still Kansas and I don’t think they can beat Rutgers.

 

Rant of the Week

Why is fumbling out of the end zone a touchback? Down 28-20 with 2:13 left, Quartney Davis for Texas A&M made a move for the pylon and fumbled. It looked like the ball went to the left of the pylon, but replay didn’t have a good enough angle to overturn it. Clemson’s ball.

But my question is why should Clemson get the ball. They never recovered the fumble and the possession was last with Texas A&M. It remains one of the dumbest “it is what it is” rules in not only College Football, but in every level of football. There is no reason for Clemson in this case to get the ball. How fumbling at the one-yard line somehow turns into the other team’s ball at the twenty is mind-boggling.

Let’s say they did change the rule. Wouldn’t that make football more exciting? It would mean more diving for the pylon and not worrying about losing the ball out of bounds. Changing the rule makes sense and would add more excitement to the game.

Two weeks! It’s been two weeks of College Football and the picture of who’s good and who’s bad has started to take shape. Michigan State and Florida- Bad. Georgia and Oklahoma- Good.

But with three months still to go, the playoff picture is far from set and conference play is ready to start. We learned a lot from non-conference play. We learned the SEC West is by far the best division in football with Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, and Texas A&M. The Big Ten East was highly overrated with Michigan and Michigan State already having a loss on the resume. Penn State was pretty close too against Big Ten Homewrecker Appalachian State.

However, the biggest lesson I’ve learned? THE ACC STINKS! Seriously. The Coastal division has only two undefeated teams left. Florida State looks like a Sun Belt team. North Carolina got blown out by ECU. Who the heck is going to beat Clemson? Clemson’s toughest opponent left is probably NC State and they struggled against James Madison. Clemson may not have room to slip up. Think they could be the Wisconsin of last year where if they lose in the conference championship, they won’t make the College Football Playoff.

As for me, I’ve spent the past few weeks at a bachelor party in Miami and watching Aaron Rodgers come back from the dead in Green Bay. Halftime at the Packer game was as hopeless as I’ve felt since… halftime in the National Championship. But just like Tua, Rodgers put the team on his back and put Chicago fans into the pit of misery.

This next weekend I will be taking a trip to Jerry World for the showdown between Ohio State and TCU. The first big challenge for Ohio State without Urban Meyer. Dwayne Haskins is not talked about nearly enough as he has been really impressive for the Buckeyes. He’s better than JT Barrett. I repeat. HE’S BETTER THAN JT BARRETT. I know he’s played against Oregon State and Rutgers, but I think the Buckeyes are for real.

Here are some more thoughts I’ve had around College Football:

Tyler’s Thoughts

Alabama’s schedule doesn’t look like a walk in the park anymore

CUPCAKES. NOVEMBER FCS TEAM. PLAY REAL OPPONENTS.

The lazy analysis of the twitter commenters. Now I’m not going to say their non-conference schedule this year is tough, but Alabama may have one of the toughest schedules in all of college football. I mean pray for the entire SEC West, especially Arkansas, that there are that many quality teams in one division. All should be ranked in the top 25 and I’d argue Bama, LSU, Auburn, and Mississippi State are all top 10 teams. Alabama will have to play three of those teams in November. We’ll also get to see how good Texas A&M is when they go to Bryant-Denny on September 22nd.

Oklahoma’s Offense

Well. Kyler Murray can play. Oklahoma is back into form with scoring a lot of points and playing a little defense. They won’t have to play that much defense considering their next opponent, Iowa State, put up just 3 points against Iowa. Oklahoma again is the team to beat in the Big 12. I will say Rodney Anderson out for the year is a bigger blow than people are making it out to be. The guy is one of the best running backs in college football and will be needed against big time opponents down the stretch.

Texas is STILL Not Back

The last two years I’ve picked Texas to finish 8-4. I don’t know when I’m going to learn. This team isn’t good. They lost to Maryland and then beat Tulsa by seven points. TULSA! Their schedule doesn’t get any easier with USC, TCU and Oklahoma over the next month. I thought because Tom Herman was starting to recruit Texas well that this was the year things would start to turnaround. Nope, they still stink.

Boise State is the best Group of Five team, not UCF

Not sure if anyone has been paying attention, but Boise State and their senior quarterback Brett Rypien are tearing it up. Boise State outgained UConn 818 to 193 yards. That’s a difference of 625 yards! They didn’t even look like they should be on the same field.

UCF also played UConn, they only outgained them by 166 yards. Boise State has a big matchup with Oklahoma State this week, but I’d bet UCF is the team to trip up this year and not Boise State.

My Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Wisconsin
6. Oklahoma
7. Auburn
8. Notre Dame
9. LSU
10. Mississippi State
11. Stanford
12. West Virginia
13. Virginia Tech
14. Oregon
15. TCU
16. Penn State
17. Boise State
18. UCF
19. Washington
20. Miami
21. Texas A&M
22. Michigan
23. Utah
24. Houston
25. Boston College

AP Mess of the Week

If you’ve been following me, I’m always critical of the AP poll. Part of the reason is many AP voters have no idea what they are doing. Chris Solari of the Detroit Free Press voted Florida State number 25 after a blowout loss to Virginia Tech and narrowly escaping Samford. No, not Stanford… Samford. I sometime wonder if these voters even watch college football. Thankfully they have no say in the playoffs.

The AP Mess of the Week goes to ranking Michigan State and not ranking Texas A&M. What has been impressive about the Spartans to get them ranked? Was it their close win against Utah State or their narrow loss to Arizona State? All I know is both teams are 1-1 and A&M went to the wire with who the AP voters voted number 2 in Clemson. Yet a loss to the 23rd ranked Sun Devils is much more impressive.

The Run Down (All Times EST)

Early Hangover Games

It’s 10am. You look to your left. There’s a 1/4 full Miller Lite can on your night stand. Your mind goes to last night watching Wisconsin vs. Western Kentucky at the bar and that’s the last thing you remember. All of a sudden it hits you… COLLEGE GAMEDAY IS LIVE FROM SOUTH BEND. You quickly rustle around for the remote in your bed. Finally, Lee Corso is in your room on a Saturday morning again.

The early slate is awesome. So much intrigue. Better somehow find three TVs because the schedule makers are shoving high-level football action right in your face.

#23 Texas (-13) vs. Maryland, Noon FS1 (Landover)

‘Member when Texas lost to Maryland in the home opener last year. ‘Member when they were favored by 14. Ya I remember. Maryland then lost three quarterbacks by the third game of the season and finished the year 4-8. Have to tune in to find out if Texas is back.

Gambling Advice: Stay away. Maryland is in hot water with their abusive environment and you never know what you’re going to get from Texas early.

Florida Atlantic at #7 Oklahoma (-21), Noon Fox

LANE KIFFIN AGAINST A POWERHOUSE. LANE KIFFIN AGAINST A POWERHOUSE. This is not a drill. We have highly entertaining Lane and a pretty good FAU team going to try to upset the Sooners in Norman. FAU was one of the hottest group of five teams last season and now they have a 25-year old offensive coordinator coaching his first game against Oklahoma. FAU’s defense isn’t bad either, this game will be entertaining early.

Gambling Advice: I like FAU to cover. Oklahoma struggled on defense last year so I think star RB Devin Singletary will put up some points. OU still wins, but not by over 21.

Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech (-2.5), Noon ESPN (Houston)

I don’t know what happened, but Ole Miss isn’t being respected at all. The Rebels (Black Bears? Landsharks? I don’t know what you want me to call you guys) have one of the best trio of wide receivers in the country. Add a pretty good quarterback and points will be put up. Tech is used to the 11am local time kickoffs and their defense will be much better than in years past. However, their offense is questionable for the first time in awhile with a lack of receiver talent and a major question at the quarterback position. Ole Miss is not very good defensively. So there’s a classic matchup of good offense vs. decent defense and subpar offense vs. bad defense.

Gambling Advice: Give me Ole Miss and the 2.5 points. They finished the year hot last year and will be a lot for the Red Raiders to handle. Also over 68 points is the right call here.

6-Pack Down Afternoon Games

Now that you’ve got your right thumb hitting the previous button on the remote back in College Football watching mode, it’s time for some great afternoon games.

#6 Washington vs. #9 Auburn (-2.5), 3:30 pm ABC (Atlanta)

Welcome to Atlanta where the players play. We got Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham throwing to Ryan Davis all day. But Auburn has to stop RB Myles Gaskin since you’re askin’. And that defensive line may be up to taskin’…. AND I’ll stop. I’ve never been a Jake Browning fan and it didn’t go well the last time he was in Atlanta (2016 loss to Alabama 24-7). Close game, but give me Stidham over Browning.

Gambling Advice: Auburn wins by 7. Also the under 48.5.

Tennessee vs. #17 West Virginia (-10), 3:30 pm CBS (Charlotte)

Will Grier and the Mountaineers have been the Big 12 sleeper pick of the summer. But the defense has major questions so I have no idea. Speaking of questions, the entire program of Tennessee is a question right now. I have no idea what product Coach Pruitt is going to put out there. It could be decent or it could be awful and they give up 56 points. Either way I’m here for it.

Gambling Advice: I’d lean towards West Virginia, but I have no clue on Tennessee so I may stay away… Or I’ll end up betting West Virginia six minutes before kickoff.

Whiskey Night Games

#14 Michigan (-1) at #12 Notre Dame, 7:30 pm NBC

Is this the year Jim Harbaugh finally puts it all together at Michigan? I mean finishing 4th in his own division isn’t what he was hired for. But that defense is loaded and Shea Patterson gives the offense at least a heart beat. I like the Fighting Irish defense, but that offense won’t score many points against Michigan.

Gambling Advice: Michigan. Michigan. Michigan.

Louisville vs. #1 Alabama (-25), 8:00 pm ABC (Orlando)

After all the offseason talk, let’s watch… Tua start the game and run up the score on Louisville. I don’t think Louisville will be able to score many points either. Think this is a down Cardinal team. Wish this was a year earlier and we had the chance to see Lamar Jackson vs. Alabama’s Defense. Also still want to see 2017 Oklahoma vs. 2017 Alabama.

Gambling Advice: Never bet against Nick Saban in an opening game matchup. Also take the under 59 points. Louisville won’t score a ton and I think Bama takes the pedal off in the fourth quarter.

One-Eye Open Game

BYU at Arizona (-11.5), 10:45 pm

Just watch Khalil Tate until you can’t keep your eyes open anymore.

Gambling Advice: Take Arizona and wake up in the morning a winner. BYU is still bad and Arizona will be a surprise team in the Pac-12 this year.

OH DEAR LORD THERE’S TWO MORE DAYS OF FOOTBALL

#25 LSU vs. #8 Miami (-3), Sunday 7:30 pm ABC (Arlington)

You rested all day and now you’re ready for a Sunday Showdown with Miami and LSU. It’ll be interesting to see if LSU is able to get any offensive production this year. The defense will be good and will slow Miami down. However, Miami’s defense is solid and will keep LSU from scoring. Low scoring, Close game, Miami wins.

Gambling Advice: I think I’m going to stay away. Miami ended the year awfully, but so did LSU. If anything I’d take the under 48.

#20 Virginia Tech (+7) at #19 Florida State, Monday 8:00 pm ABC

This game is not getting enough hype. Monday Night. ACC Football. Top 20 matchup. What a huge game with ACC Championship implications IN THE FIRST WEEK! As for the game it is tough to play an away season opener, but I think not enough respect is going to the Hokies. Florida State has Deondre Francois back, but the defense is young. Yet, so is Virginia Tech’s. Virginia Tech had a better season last year and has a better team. Virginia Tech in a close one.

Gambling Advice: Virginia Tech and give me those 7 points. I like Virginia Tech to win outright, actually.

Top 10 Bets of the Week

1. Northwestern (+3) at Purdue– Northwestern has a Senior quarterback, their defense is loaded, their team is better, but they’re not favored? Northwestern is the easy call.
2. North Carolina at California (-7)– This is ludicrously low. North Carolina has 13 players suspended (including their starting quarterback). California has their entire offense back and a really good running back. North Carolina has finished last in the ACC in the last five years in stopping the run. North Carolina has to fly across the country to play a 1pm local time game. This has blowout written all over it.
3. Ole Miss (+2.5) vs. Texas Tech
4. Michigan (-1) at Notre Dame
5. SMU at North Texas (-4)– SMU lost their head coach and North Texas has basically their entire offense back. North Texas wins by double digits.
6. Bowling Green at Oregon (-31.5)– Justin Herbert playing against a low level MAC team is going to be a 40 point blow-out.
7. Florida Atlantic (+21..5) at Oklahoma
8. BYU at Arizona (-11.5)
9. Virginia Tech (+7) at Florida State
10. Alabama vs. Louisville (Under 59.5)

Bonus Picks

1. Appalachian State (+24) at Penn State– Last year Georgia didn’t even beat Appalachian State by 24 points. And Penn State is supposed to do that without Saquon Barkley? Penn State wins by double digits, but not by 24 points
2. Washington vs. Auburn (-2.5)
3. Alabama (-25) vs. Louisville 

My Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Wisconsin
5. Ohio State
6. Miami
7. Mississippi State
8. Auburn
9. Oklahoma
10. Washington
11. Oregon
12. Michigan
13. Michigan State
14. Arizona
15. USC
16. Notre Dame
17. Stanford
18. Boise State
19. West Virginia
20. Penn State
21. Virginia Tech
22. TCU
23. Northwestern
24. UCF
25. South Carolina

Rant of the Week

Let’s talk about Alabama’s starting quarterback “controversy.” This has been going on, non-stop, for seven months in the national media. I’m here to say… THERE IS NO CONTROVERSY.

Jalen Hurts has been a very good game-managing quarterback for Alabama, but he has never developed as a passer. He is able to carve up the Arkansas and Ole Miss defenses of the world because of how great of a runner he is. But let’s take a look at how he has done against Top 25 Power-5 Defenses:

Florida State: 10/18 96 Yards 1 TD, 15 carries 55 yards 1 TD

LSU: 11/24 183 yards 1 TD, 14 carries 44 yards 1 TD

Mississippi State: 10/19 242 yards 1 TD, 19 carries 40 yards 1 TD

Auburn: 12/22 112 yards 1 TD, 18 carries 82 yards

Clemson: 16/24 120 yards 2 TD, 11 carries 40 yards

Georgia: 3/8 21 yards, 6 carries 47 yards

Against these tougher defenses, Hurts is a 54% passer and averages 4.2 yards per carry. The opposing defenses are able to focus on stopping the run and aren’t scared of a 54% passer. A sad fact is Hurts has never developed as a passer. For people that watch Alabama, it is the same anytime he drops back. Looks at Ridley, if he’s not open he looks to scramble out of the pocket, and then most likely he will try to run or throw it away. But then came Tua Tagovailoa.

Tua was a revelation not only in the National Championship game, but throughout the season. He would stay in the pocket, go through his reads, and would throw with arm talent Tuscaloosa hadn’t seen before. Tua displayed the ability of the weapons Alabama actually had at receiver. Nick Saban reported that when Hurts was sick for a few days in National Championship preparation practice, Tua went 54/58 against the Alabama defense. 54/58!!! This was a defense that held opponents to 53.8% passing.

Jalen has a role in the offense as a premier running quarterback in college football, but Tua is a next-level quarterback Alabama has never had during the Nick Saban tenure. If Tua is not out there taking the first snap against Louisville, it will be the first time I doubt Nick Saban mentally.

“Wish it Was Still Saturday” is a weekly review of the College Football Weekend

Oh boy, it is nice to have football back again. I know it was only Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico State, and Colorado State (and for the 48 people that have ESPN+, Prairie View A&M and Rice). But it was REGULAR SEASON FOOTBALL!! Games that mattered and counted. No more NFL Preseason, no more college football depth chart reveals, just real football.

The games gave us an appetizer for the big matchups coming this next week. Week 0 should be known as Group of Five appreciation week. The fans that don’t stay up to 1am one and only chance to watch the Rainbow Warriors. So we will give it the same type of love in this week’s “Wish it was still Saturday.”

Prairie View A&M at Rice
31-28 Rice

Rice. You’re a FBS program. Prairie View A&M went 6-5 last year. You need a last minute field goal to beat them? Going to be a long season for Rice especially when they go to LSU in November. At least Rice’s performance was better than ESPN+ camera work.

Hawaii at Colorado State
43-34 Hawaii

This is the type of Hawaii I like to see. Take me back to the Colt Brennan and Timmy Chang days. Colorado State had to replace QB Nick Stevens, RB Dalyn Dawkins, and WR Michael Gallop. The offense struggled early, but new QB K.J. Carta Samuels went on to throw for 537 yards and set a new Colorado State record. Former 4-star Preston Williams is also a talented wide receiver that almost helped the Rams comeback from a 37-7 deficit (See him in the below video). But Hawaii’s big lead held thanks to QB Cole McDonald’s 5 TD performance. Congrats Rainbow Warriors.

Wyoming at New Mexico State
29-7 Wyoming

Wyoming’s defense is good. They outplayed New Mexico State from the start and never let up. The Aggies finished with -9 rushing yards and only had one first down in the first half. RB Nico Evans leads Wyoming’s offense and flat out dominated with 190 yards. Wyoming is a legitimate contender in the Mountain West. New Mexico State has a lot of work before they play Minnesota on Thursday…

It happened again. After doing a study last year about characteristics of college football teams going from unranked to the top ten, the theory proved true again. The 2017 study can be found here. Every year there are around three teams who go from unranked to the top ten. Here are the history of teams that fit that criteria since 2010:

2010: Auburn (1), Stanford (4), and Wisconsin (7)
2011: USC (6)
2012: Ohio State (3), Notre Dame (4), Texas A&M (6), and Florida (9)
2013: Auburn (2), Michigan State (3), Missouri (5), and Central Florida (10)
2014: TCU (3), Georgia Tech (8), and Georgia (9)
2015: Stanford (3), Oklahoma (5), Houston (8), and Iowa (9)
2016: USC (3), Washington (4), and Penn State (7)
2017: Georgia (2), UCF (6), TCU (9)

Both Georgia and TCU fit the criteria to perfection and we actually guessed Georgia as one of the three teams to make the top ten. UCF is different since the criteria only applies to Power 5 teams. But, we have found a formula to track down potential Power 5 sleeper teams. It is a combination of two key areas, recruiting rankings and returning starters. And now… I give you the rules:

Rule 1- Four year recruiting average must be less than 60

Rule 2- Recruiting ranking of less than 35 for the senior class or the senior class ranking must be the highest of the four classes. If neither are the case, must have at least one top 30 class in the last four years.

Rule 3- Must have at least 13 total starters returning

The criteria cut the list from 44 unranked Power 5 teams last year to just 12. So without any more delay here are the 12 teams that statistically can go from unranked to the top ten this season ranked by recruiting rankings:

1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Florida
4. Michigan
5. Oregon
6. South Carolina
7. Arkansas
8. Kentucky
9. Missouri
10. Arizona
11. Texas Tech
12. Georgia Tech

Now that we have the list here’s my three picks to make a run at the top ten:

1. Oregon Ducks

Not only do I have Oregon making the top ten, I think there’s a legitimate possibility of them making the College Football Playoffs. Justin Herbert is a stud and was 5-1 as a starter last year. Returning 14 starters and having a 18 four-year recruiting average, the Ducks are a prime candidate to make the top ten.

2. Michigan Wolverines

This one kind of surprised me. Jim Harbaugh has struggled to find legitimate success at Michigan, but with 8 returning starters on defense, the defense is loaded. If Shea Patterson can just improve the offense moderately Michigan has a legitimate shot at finishing in the top ten.

3. Arizona Wildcats

My final pick is a little out there. They have the most returning starters out of anyone on the list with 17, a new head coach Kevin Sumlin, and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks out there with Khalil Tate. They have a lower recruiting ranking, but this is a team that could surprise in a weak Pac-12 South division.

 

For the nerds out there, here’s the work:

Recruiting Rankings Elimination

SEC		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Tennessee	20	17	14	4	13.75
2	Texas A&M	17	12	18	11	14.5
3	Florida	15	11	12	21	14.75
4	Ole Miss	31	30	5	17	20.75
5	South Carolina	18	21	25	20	21
6	Arkansas	48	27	23	22	30
7	Kentucky	37	29	33	38	34.25
8	Missouri	43	42	43	25	38.25
9	Vanderbilt	40	64	54	49	51.75
Big Ten		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Michigan	21	5	6	37	17.25
2	Nebraska	22	23	26	30	25.25
3	Maryland	28	18	42	47	33.75
4	Iowa	41	41	47	60	47.25
5	Minnesota	38	58	46	63	51.25
6	Indiana	49	63	53	53	54.5
7	Illinois	52	45	73	48	54.5
8	Rutgers	57	43	64	57	55.25
9	Purdue	51	72	80	67	67.5
ACC		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Florida State	11	6	2	3	5.5
2	North Carolina	23	31	35	28	29.25
3	Louisville	29	32	38	32	32.75
4	Pittsburgh	46	37	30	46	39.75
5	Duke	62	48	32	55	49.25
6	Georgia Tech	54	47	60	44	51.25
7	Syracuse	50	54	62	56	55.5
8	Virginia	60	57	63	50	57.5
9	Wake Forest	63	67	57	51	59.5
10	Boston College	69	66	78	60	68.25
Pac-12		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	UCLA	19	20	13	12	16
2	Oregon	13	19	27	16	18.75
3	Arizona State	36	35	24	20	28.75
4	Utah	34	33	37	45	37.25
5	Cal	42	73	31	34	45
6	Washington State	45	46	56	42	47.25
7	Arizona	58	44	48	43	48.25
8	Colorado	53	35	67	71	56.5
9	Oregon State	67	51	58	61	59.25
Big 12		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Texas	3	26	6	10	11.25
2	Baylor	30	40	41	36	36.75
3	West Virginia	35	56	39	35	41.25
4	Texas Tech	73	49	44	32	49.5
5	Iowa State	55	53	55	64	56.75
6	Kansas State	71	60	72	55	64.5
7	Kansas	61	69	71	73	68.5

Returning Starters Elimination

SEC		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Tennessee	4	6	10
2	Texas A&M	7	7	14
3	Florida	10	6	16
4	Ole Miss	8	4	12
5	South Carolina	8	5	13
6	Arkansas	6	7	13
7	Kentucky	7	8	15
8	Missouri	9	6	15
Big Ten		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Michigan	6	8	14
2	Nebraska	5	7	12
3	Maryland	7	4	11
ACC		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Florida State	8	3	11
2	North Carolina	5	7	12
3	Louisville	7	2	9
4	Pittsburgh	4	7	11
5	Georgia Tech	9	6	15
Pac-12		Offense	Defense	Total
1	UCLA	4	6	10
2	Oregon	7	7	14
3	Arizona State	7	4	11
4	Washington State	4	7	11
5	Arizona	8	9	17
Big 12		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Texas	6	7	13
2	Baylor	6	5	11
3	West Virginia	7	4	11
4	Texas Tech	5	9	14

Final Four

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

Projected Record: 13-0 (8-0 SEC)

Why They Made It: They’ve made it every year, so it’d be foolish to predict them missing right? They don’t have a challenging game until November.

Team Review: The defending National Champions shouldn’t fall off. The national media is making it out like there is a quarterback controversy. There is none… Tua is the starter. The offense is loaded at Running Back with Damien Harris and Najee Harris. The receivers are young and talented. To cap it off four out of the five offensive lineman are back. Expect Alabama to average 40 points per game.

The defense should stay elite with the front seven. Defensive lineman Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs lead up front. Inside linebackers Mack Wilson and Dylan Moses also make a dynamic duo.

The secondary remains the one unknown. Deionte Thompson is a dynamic safety, but there are young, unproven corners that will have to step up. The schedule sets up well with Louisville the only Power 5 test for nonconference play. A trip to LSU for a Saturday night game could be tricky as well.

2. Clemson Tigers

Projected Record: 13-0 (8-0 ACC)

Why They Made It: A great defense should get Clemson through an ACC schedule that isn’t very tough. The Tigers will just have to avoid a surprise loss against non-conference opponents Texas A&M and South Carolina.

Team Review: Back from a College Football Semi-Final loss, Clemson comes back loaded especially on the defensive front. Clelin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant all should be drafted within the first three rounds.

The offense will need to step up after only scoring 6 points against Alabama. Mitch Hyatt leads a good offensive line even with losing two starting offensive guards to graduation. The running backs are solid with a combination of Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster. Talented Freshman QB Trevor Lawrence could take over for Kelly Bryant if he is not effective. Clemson does have two non-conference games against SEC opponents Texas A&M and South Carolina. Clemson will try to avoid a trip up like last year when they lost to 4-8 Syracuse.

3. Georgia Bulldogs

Projected Record: 12-1 (8-0 SEC)

Why They Made It: I know they’re not conference champions and do not have a difficult schedule. But in years past the committee does not punish conference championship losses heavily and I think Georgia will more than past the eye test.

Team Review: Georgia comes off a great season and heartbreaking loss in the National Championship. Getting back to the playoffs will not come easy as they must replace 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball. The roster is talented with Georgia having three out of the last four years a top five recruiting class.

On offense talented WRs Terry Godwin, Mecole Hardman, and Riley Ridley should give SEC defenses trouble along with shifty RB De’Andre Swift. It’ll be interesting whether QB Jake Fromm can hold off freshman phenom Justin Fields for the starting job. There will be new starters across the defense, but Georgia still has reliable players like CB Deandre Baker, Safety J.R. Reid and DE Jonathan Ledbetter. The schedule will not be easy with matchups against Auburn and LSU from the West. If Kirby Smart can find a way to replace the lost defensive starters Georgia should not only be in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, but the College Football Playoffs as well.

4. Oregon Ducks

Projected Record: 12-1 (8-1 Pac 12)

Why They Made It: I think Oregon could shock a lot of people this year. Justin Herbert will lead a dynamic offense that the committee will love. They will be knocked on their non-conference schedule, but winning the Pac-12 with one loss in the tougher division will get them in.

Team Review: My biggest surprise candidate for the 2018 College Football season. Oregon has all the makings of a surprise team- a great quarterback, talented roster, and alot of returning starters. Last year with Justin Herbert at quarterback, Oregon had a 6-1 record and averaged 52.1 PPG. New head coach Mario Cristobal has had success before, turning around Florida International. He then served as a great recruiter and offensive line coach under Nick Saban.

On defense, the Ducks specialize in stopping the run with a front seven that includes DE Jalen Jelks and ILB Troy Dye. The defense will just have to slow down the opponent and let the offense put up points. The schedule sets up really well for Oregon as they play Stanford and Washington at home, and they do not have to face USC from the South. Oregon could shock the country and be a playoff contender.

Just Missed The Cut

5. Wisconsin Badgers

Projected Record: 12-1 (8-1 Big Ten)

Why They Missed: This is the toughest team to leave out. Wisconsin does have to play at Penn State and at Michigan, but playing in one of the easiest divisions I think will keep them out. Add in a soft non-conference schedule and Alex Hornibrook as the quarterback, Wisconsin might just be left out as a one-loss team again.

Team Review: Wisconsin is a hot pick to make the College Football Playoff and for good reason. The Badgers have a loaded offensive line and they’re returning an almost 2,000 yard rusher with Jonathan Taylor. QB Alex Hornibrook will just have to manage the game for the Badgers to be in good shape.

The defense has 8 starters to replace, but TJ Edwards is one of the best LBs in the country. Also add DT Olive Sagapolu and this defense should be solid again. Wisconsin has an easy schedule with no tough non-conference opponents and just a few tough road matchups against Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern and Penn State. The schedule sets up well for a Big Ten Championship run.

6. Oklahoma Sooners 

Projected Record: 11-2 (7-2 Big 12)

Why They Missed: I’m projecting two losses for this Oklahoma team. Losing Baker Mayfield is big, and I don’t think a two loss Big 12 Conference Champion gets in the playoff. A decent non-conference schedule does help their case.

Team Review: The Baker Mayfield era is over, but that doesn’t mean Oklahoma won’t be competing for the playoffs. Kyler Murray is expected to take over, but Redshirt Sophomore Austin Kendall has pushed him for the starting job. The offense returns one of the best running backs in college football with Rodney Anderson. The offense will revolve around Anderson and a strong offensive line. The receiving group should give the new quarterback help with high profile WRs Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, CeeDee Lamb and Mykel Jones.

The defense continues to be a question especially after allowing 54 points to Georgia in the semi-final game last year. There are some solid young players including LBs Caleb Kelly and Kenneth Murray. The non-conference schedule is interesting with FAU, UCLA, and Army. FAU will try to pull the upset in Norman for the first game of the year. Replacing a quarterback with Baker Mayfield’s talent won’t be easy, but there is still enough talent on the roster to compete for a spot in the playoffs.