It happens every year. A team comes out of nowhere and finishes the season in the AP Top Ten Rankings. Last year, we saw Washington make the playoffs as well as Penn State winning the Big Ten and making the Rose Bowl. The most difficult thing is identifying these teams who could make a run into the top ten. Looking into final AP poll data from the last 7 years and other similar characteristics helps us identify the potential teams that could finish inside the top ten.

Six out of the seven years since 2010, at least three teams have finished in the AP poll top ten after not finishing in the top 25 the previous year. 2011 was the only exception where USC was the one team that met that criteria. In 2016, there were three teams (USC, Washington and Penn State). In 2012, 2013, and 2015 four teams finished in the top ten despite not being in the top 25 before. The following is the full list of the teams (Rank in Parenthesis):

2010: Auburn (1), Stanford (4), and Wisconsin (7)

2011: USC (6)

2012: Ohio State (3), Notre Dame (4), Texas A&M (6), and Florida (9)

2013: Auburn (2), Michigan State (3), Missouri (5), and Central Florida (10)

2014: TCU (3), Georgia Tech (8), and Georgia (9)

2015: Stanford (3), Oklahoma (5), Houston (8), and Iowa (9)

2016: USC (3), Washington (4), and Penn State (7)

It is an occurence that happens almost every year. So who are the possible teams to do it this year? There are a few key factors that go into determining the potential teams:

The Process

We start with 43 possible Power 5 teams that did not finish in the AP top 25 the previous year. The list gets cut almost in half after the first two rules based on recruiting rankings:

Rule 1- Four year recruiting average must be less than 60 or eliminated from consideration.

Out of all the top ten Power 5 conference teams and the teams that made the jump from unranked to top ten, none have had a Recruiting Ranking Average over 60. 2014 Georgia Tech had the highest recruiting ranking with a 57 average (As you will see later that Georgia Tech team was a major outlier to normal top ten finishers).

Rule 2- Must have a recruiting ranking of less than 35 for the senior class or the senior class ranking must be the highest of the four classes. If neither are the case, must have at least one top 30 class in the last 4 years or else eliminated.

This is where it gets a little complicated, but the explanation is simple. Teams that normally don’t recruit well must have a strong senior class. All of the teams that finished in the top ten after making the top 25 the year before, fit this same mold. 2016 Washington, 2014 TCU and 2013 Michigan State are the best examples of teams who normally didn’t recruit well, but had a strong senior class recruiting ranking. All of these teams not only finished in the top ten, but they finished in the top 4. You can get away with not having a high ranking senior class if you’ve had at least one top 30 class.

The Results so far:

SEC		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	Georgia	5	8	5	8	6.5
2	Texas A&M	12	18	11	5	11.5
3	Ole Miss	30	5	17	15	16.75
4	South Carolina	21	25	20	19	21.25
5	Arkansas	27	23	22	29	25.25
6	Mississippi State	24	28	18	35	26.25
7	Kentucky	29	33	38	22	30.5
8	Missouri	42	43	25	39	37.25
9	Vanderbilt	64	54	49	46	53.25
Big Ten		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	Michigan State	34	17	22	26	24.75
2	Nebraska	23	26	30	35	28.5
3	Maryland	18	42	47	41	37
4	Northwestern	50	52	54	47	50.75
5	Iowa	41	47	60	59	51.75
6	Indiana	63	53	53	48	54.25
7	Rutgers	43	64	57	56	55
8	Minnesota	58	46	63	57	56
9	Illinois	45	73	48	72	59.5
10	Purdue	72	80	67	70	72.25
ACC		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	North Carolina	31	35	28	31	31.25
2	Pittsburgh	37	30	46	44	39.25
3	North Carolina State	52	50	31	34	41.75
4	Duke	48	32	55	60	48.75
5	Virginia	57	63	50	33	50.75
6	Georgia Tech	47	60	44	56	51.75
7	Syracuse	54	62	56	52	56
8	Wake Forest	67	57	51	67	60.5
9	Boston College	66	78	60	51	63.75
Pac-12		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	UCLA	20	13	12	18	15.75
2	Oregon	19	27	16	21	20.75
3	Arizona State	35	24	20	23	25.5
4	Arizona	44	48	43	30	41.25
5	Cal	73	31	34	55	48.25
6	Washington State	46	56	42	53	49.25
7	Oregon State	51	58	61	60	57.5
Big 12		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	Texas	26	6	10	17	14.75
2	TCU	28	22	42	43	33.75
3	Baylor	40	41	36	26	35.75
4	Texas Tech	49	44	32	40	41.25
5	Iowa State	53	55	64	58	57.5
6	Kansas State	60	72	55	49	59
7	Kansas	69	71	73	50	65.75
IND		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	Notre Dame	10	15	13	11	12.25

 

Now we are down to 26 teams… Next is returning starters

Rule 3- Must have at least 13 total starters returning or else eliminated from consideration. (2014 Georgia Tech as the outlier)

You may hear that returning starters is an overrated statistic for a football team. Looking at the Power 5 teams that made a run from unranked to Top 10, there is a correlation:

Team	Offense	Defense	Total
2016 USC	10	6	16
2016 Washington	9	7	16
2016 Penn State	9	6	15
2015 Stanford	11	4	15
2015 Oklahoma	7	6	13
2015 Iowa	7	8	15
2014 TCU	8	8	16
2014 Georgia Tech	5	5	10
2014 Georgia	6	9	15
2013 Auburn	6	9	15
2013 Michigan State	8	7	15
2013 Missouri	8	6	14
2012 Ohio State	9	10	19
2012 Notre Dame	8	7	15
2012 Texas A&M	9	8	17
2012 Florida	8	10	18
2011 USC	6	7	13
2010 Auburn	7	8	15
2010 Stanford	8	6	14
2010 Wisconsin	10	6	16
Average	7.95	7.15	15.10

Out of all the teams, 2014 Georgia Tech was the only team that didn’t return at least 13 starters. We are going to treat that team as them as an outlier.

So out of the teams we have left we can eliminate more from the list:

SEC		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Georgia	5	10	15
2	Texas A&M	5	6	11
3	Ole Miss	5	6	11
4	South Carolina	10	6	16
5	Arkansas	6	6	12
6	Mississippi State	6	6	12
7	Kentucky	8	8	16
8	Vanderbilt	8	7	15
Big Ten		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Michigan State	2	3	5
2	Nebraska	5	7	12
3	Maryland	6	6	12
4	Northwestern	8	7	15
5	Indiana	5	9	14
ACC		Offense	Defense	Total
1	North Carolina	6	6	12
2	North Carolina State	8	8	16
3	Virginia	5	8	13
4	Syracuse	9	10	19
Pac-12		Offense	Defense	Total
1	UCLA	7	5	12
2	Oregon	7	8	16
3	Arizona State	7	8	15
4	Arizona	6	7	13
Big 12		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Texas	5	10	15
2	TCU	8	7	15
3	Baylor	5	5	10
4	Kansas State	7	6	13
IND		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Notre Dame	8	7	15

That leaves us with 16 eligible teams for an average of three spots in the Final AP Top Ten. Here is the list ranking by returning starters and recruiting rankings:

		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Syracuse	9	10	19
2	South Carolina	10	6	16
3	Kentucky	8	8	16
4	Oregon	7	8	16
5	North Carolina State	8	8	16
6	Texas	6	10	16
7	Georgia	5	10	15
8	Vanderbilt	8	7	15
9	Arizona State	7	8	15
10	Northwestern	8	7	15
11	Notre Dame	8	7	15
12	TCU	8	7	15
13	Indiana	5	9	14
14	Kansas State	7	6	13
15	Arizona	6	7	13
16	Virginia	5	8	13

		2017	2016	2015	2014	4 YR AVG
1	Georgia	5	8	5	8	6.5
2	Notre Dame	10	15	13	11	12.25
3	Texas	26	6	10	17	14.75
4	Oregon	19	27	16	21	20.75
5	South Carolina	21	25	20	19	21.25
6	Arizona State	35	24	20	23	25.5
7	Kentucky	29	33	38	22	30.5
8	TCU	28	22	42	43	33.75
9	Arizona	44	48	43	30	41.25
10	North Carolina State	52	50	31	34	41.75
11	Virginia	57	63	50	33	50.75
12	Northwestern	50	52	54	47	50.75
13	Vanderbilt	64	54	49	46	53.25
14	Indiana	63	53	53	48	54.25
15	Syracuse	54	62	56	52	56
16	Kansas State	60	72	55	49	59

Sleeper Teams

Based on the data and looking at the actual teams, here are my predictions for the three teams to finish in the AP Top Ten after finishing unranked last year:

1. Georgia

I think this is the most obvious of the choices. Georgia showed they were talented last year and return almost their entire defense. Add to that a quarterback returning from a decent Freshman season and you have a top ten team. Look for Georgia to compete for the SEC East and end up finishing in the top ten.

2. North Carolina State

The not so obvious choice. North Carolina State returns 16 starters and has one of the best defensive lines in the nation. This was also a team that lost to Florida State by 4 points and took Clemson into Overtime. Their tough schedule could make it difficult, but North Carolina State has the talent to compete for the ACC Championship Game and could finish the year in the top ten.

3. Kansas State

I know they’re ranked low in the returning starters and recruiting rankings, but this is a talented team. This could be one of Bill Snyder’s best offensive teams with Jesse Ertz coming back. The defense needs to replace the linebackers, but are strong upfront and in the secondary. They have an easier non-conference schedule and could upset some teams in the Big 12. This is a darkhorse to win the Big 12 and potential top ten team.

 

Tyler Vesely

Twitter- @nfldraftscout