It happened again. After doing a study last year about characteristics of college football teams going from unranked to the top ten, the theory proved true again. The 2017 study can be found here. Every year there are around three teams who go from unranked to the top ten. Here are the history of teams that fit that criteria since 2010:

2010: Auburn (1), Stanford (4), and Wisconsin (7)
2011: USC (6)
2012: Ohio State (3), Notre Dame (4), Texas A&M (6), and Florida (9)
2013: Auburn (2), Michigan State (3), Missouri (5), and Central Florida (10)
2014: TCU (3), Georgia Tech (8), and Georgia (9)
2015: Stanford (3), Oklahoma (5), Houston (8), and Iowa (9)
2016: USC (3), Washington (4), and Penn State (7)
2017: Georgia (2), UCF (6), TCU (9)

Both Georgia and TCU fit the criteria to perfection and we actually guessed Georgia as one of the three teams to make the top ten. UCF is different since the criteria only applies to Power 5 teams. But, we have found a formula to track down potential Power 5 sleeper teams. It is a combination of two key areas, recruiting rankings and returning starters. And now… I give you the rules:

Rule 1- Four year recruiting average must be less than 60

Rule 2- Recruiting ranking of less than 35 for the senior class or the senior class ranking must be the highest of the four classes. If neither are the case, must have at least one top 30 class in the last four years.

Rule 3- Must have at least 13 total starters returning

The criteria cut the list from 44 unranked Power 5 teams last year to just 12. So without any more delay here are the 12 teams that statistically can go from unranked to the top ten this season ranked by recruiting rankings:

1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. Florida
4. Michigan
5. Oregon
6. South Carolina
7. Arkansas
8. Kentucky
9. Missouri
10. Arizona
11. Texas Tech
12. Georgia Tech

Now that we have the list here’s my three picks to make a run at the top ten:

1. Oregon Ducks

Not only do I have Oregon making the top ten, I think there’s a legitimate possibility of them making the College Football Playoffs. Justin Herbert is a stud and was 5-1 as a starter last year. Returning 14 starters and having a 18 four-year recruiting average, the Ducks are a prime candidate to make the top ten.

2. Michigan Wolverines

This one kind of surprised me. Jim Harbaugh has struggled to find legitimate success at Michigan, but with 8 returning starters on defense, the defense is loaded. If Shea Patterson can just improve the offense moderately Michigan has a legitimate shot at finishing in the top ten.

3. Arizona Wildcats

My final pick is a little out there. They have the most returning starters out of anyone on the list with 17, a new head coach Kevin Sumlin, and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks out there with Khalil Tate. They have a lower recruiting ranking, but this is a team that could surprise in a weak Pac-12 South division.

 

For the nerds out there, here’s the work:

Recruiting Rankings Elimination

SEC		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Tennessee	20	17	14	4	13.75
2	Texas A&M	17	12	18	11	14.5
3	Florida	15	11	12	21	14.75
4	Ole Miss	31	30	5	17	20.75
5	South Carolina	18	21	25	20	21
6	Arkansas	48	27	23	22	30
7	Kentucky	37	29	33	38	34.25
8	Missouri	43	42	43	25	38.25
9	Vanderbilt	40	64	54	49	51.75
Big Ten		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Michigan	21	5	6	37	17.25
2	Nebraska	22	23	26	30	25.25
3	Maryland	28	18	42	47	33.75
4	Iowa	41	41	47	60	47.25
5	Minnesota	38	58	46	63	51.25
6	Indiana	49	63	53	53	54.5
7	Illinois	52	45	73	48	54.5
8	Rutgers	57	43	64	57	55.25
9	Purdue	51	72	80	67	67.5
ACC		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Florida State	11	6	2	3	5.5
2	North Carolina	23	31	35	28	29.25
3	Louisville	29	32	38	32	32.75
4	Pittsburgh	46	37	30	46	39.75
5	Duke	62	48	32	55	49.25
6	Georgia Tech	54	47	60	44	51.25
7	Syracuse	50	54	62	56	55.5
8	Virginia	60	57	63	50	57.5
9	Wake Forest	63	67	57	51	59.5
10	Boston College	69	66	78	60	68.25
Pac-12		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	UCLA	19	20	13	12	16
2	Oregon	13	19	27	16	18.75
3	Arizona State	36	35	24	20	28.75
4	Utah	34	33	37	45	37.25
5	Cal	42	73	31	34	45
6	Washington State	45	46	56	42	47.25
7	Arizona	58	44	48	43	48.25
8	Colorado	53	35	67	71	56.5
9	Oregon State	67	51	58	61	59.25
Big 12		2018	2017	2016	2015	4 YR AVG
1	Texas	3	26	6	10	11.25
2	Baylor	30	40	41	36	36.75
3	West Virginia	35	56	39	35	41.25
4	Texas Tech	73	49	44	32	49.5
5	Iowa State	55	53	55	64	56.75
6	Kansas State	71	60	72	55	64.5
7	Kansas	61	69	71	73	68.5

Returning Starters Elimination

SEC		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Tennessee	4	6	10
2	Texas A&M	7	7	14
3	Florida	10	6	16
4	Ole Miss	8	4	12
5	South Carolina	8	5	13
6	Arkansas	6	7	13
7	Kentucky	7	8	15
8	Missouri	9	6	15
Big Ten		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Michigan	6	8	14
2	Nebraska	5	7	12
3	Maryland	7	4	11
ACC		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Florida State	8	3	11
2	North Carolina	5	7	12
3	Louisville	7	2	9
4	Pittsburgh	4	7	11
5	Georgia Tech	9	6	15
Pac-12		Offense	Defense	Total
1	UCLA	4	6	10
2	Oregon	7	7	14
3	Arizona State	7	4	11
4	Washington State	4	7	11
5	Arizona	8	9	17
Big 12		Offense	Defense	Total
1	Texas	6	7	13
2	Baylor	6	5	11
3	West Virginia	7	4	11
4	Texas Tech	5	9	14