By: Nick Radivoj

We are on to Week 12 action as we welcome back the Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Seahawks from bye. Week 11 ended up being a wash of a weekend as we ended up 6-7-1 on the weekend bringing our season total to 84-76-5 (52.5%) on the year. We have no one on bye this week as everyone will be joining in on the Thanksgiving festivities. 16 games of action to get to with little time to waste so let’s dive right in!

Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)

When: 12:30 PM on 11/24

Line: Bills -9

O/U: 54

Start your Thanksgiving off right laying the points here with the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo shouldn’t be strained too much on the offensive end as I’m expecting north of 30 this Turkey day from the team in Western New York. Detroit’s defense has been better as of late but should get exposed here by a Buffalo team with a Top 5 offense in the NFL behind Josh Allen. Detroit has displayed their offensive capabilities throughout the season but I expect a Leslie Frazier led defense to pull together a few stops in time for Buffalo to build upon a 2 or even 3 score lead. I would make sure to fill up your Thanksgiving plate to kick back and watch what should be a high scoring game for the first of 3 NFL Thanksgving games.

The Play: Bills -9

New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

When: 4:30 PM on 11/24

Line: Cowboys -9

O/U: 44.5

Enjoy America’s team with a big plate of Turkey and sides as the Thanksgiving meals should be underway by the team this game gets underway. Unfortunately, I will be playing under in this game as I expect Dallas to run away and hide in this game as New York lost yet another offensive weapon in Wandale Robinson last week. Dallas will focus in on elite RB Saquon Barkley but after that don’t face many threats with this New York team. Although I’m playing the under I would even recommend laying the points here with Dallas as I think their combination of offensive skill players with an exciting defense will be too much for New York to overcome.

The Play: Under 44.5

New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2)

When: 8:20 PM on 11/24

Line: Vikings -2.5

O/U: 42.5

I originally leaned towards laying the points with the home team here in the final of 3 tNFL Thanksgiving games but landed on under instead. Under is the play because New England has a snail’s pace of an offense but combined with a top defense along with defensive mind should equal a quiet afternoon for this Vikings team that was just stifled by Dallas all afternoon to the tune of a 40-3 loss. New England will have a plan to double or even triple star WR Justin Jeffersson all afternoon and with the health of LT Christian Darrisaw up in the air could lean to a long day for Kirk Cousins. New England should be able to score a few touchdowns on offense as opposed to last week here but still any drive they do have resulting in points will surely bleed the clock dry.

The Play: Under 42.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Buccaneers -3

O/U: 42.5

Buccaneers come off their week of rest to head on the road to face Jacoby Brissett for the final time this season as Deshaun Watson’s suspension is set to be over following this game. I lean on laying the points here with the road team as it appears that the offense has found their stride over the past game showing a more well rounded rushing attack to pair with their passing game. Tampa is more vulnerable through the air on defense versus the ground game which Cleveland will attempt to establish over the course of the afternoon through Nick Chubb. Chubb will be welcomed by a brick wall of Buccaneers having no fun over the course of the afternoon. Bucs win again as they strengthen their hold on a weak NFC South.

The Play: Buccaneers -2.5

Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 42.5

A rematch of the AFC Divisional round from last year is set to go underway Sunday in Tennessee as the Titans are looking for redemption from last years late game collapse. Ryan Tannehill will be looking for redemption himself as his multiple interceptions last year were a leading cause of Tennessee falling to Cincy in last years playoff run. Tennessee should still own the point of attack with their talented defensive line but I believe Cincy will be able to take advantage of Tennessee’s secondary throughout the afternoon. Keep an eye out on Ja’Marr Chase as he is set to return to practice this week and could end up playin gin this game as well. Cincy’s defense is a far cry away from what they shouwed on their playoff run last year giving up 30 to a quiet Steelers’ offense last week. I’m excited to watch this game to see who ends up victorious as I will be staying off either side but playing the over as Tennessee’s offense has something to prove.

The Play: Over 42.5

Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Dolphins -13

O/U: 46

Miami comes off their week of rest to welcome in a Houston team with only 1 win on the year. I originally started breaking down this game aiming towards taking the over here but the more and more I talked about Miami’s offense against Houston’s defense I found myself laying the points with the home team. I figured Miami’s explosive offense will easily find themselves swimming north of 30 and unless Houston starts to show some explosion on offense that we haven’t seen all year then Miami should win here by multiple scores. Miami scores over 30 while Houston doesn’t cross through the “teens”.

The Play: Dolphins -13

Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Jets -4.5

O/U: 41

The squeaky wheel gets the grease and I think that is what will happen here for the New York Jets. Zach Wilson is coming off one of his worst performances as a professional QB and will look to bounce back against Chicago who has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. New York has shown that they have a top tier defense and needs an offense capable to score points to both keep them in games and win them late as they fell 10-3 last week to the Patriots with a touchdown coming late in the contest via special teams for New England. I think this could be one of Zach Wilson’s last games as a starter if he doesn’t come out looking great. Note: keep an eye out on the health of Justin Fields as he currently has a sprained shoulder and could be sitting out this game to recover.

The Play: Jets -4.5

Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Commanders (6-5)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Commanders -4

O/U: 42

Washington has been on a roll as of late and I think that trend continues as they take down the Falcons at home. What leads me to the Commanders here is the fact that they will be without one of their top receiving options in TE Kyle Pitts as he found his way on injured reserve. Atlanta is already a team that doesn’t pass the ball well and without Pitts they don’t look scary on that front. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in football and has been stifling rushing offenses for a better part of this season and should quiet Atlanta’s rushing attack throughout the afternoon. With all of the weapons they have on offense, Washington should find themselves with scoring opportunities against Atlanta while finding themselves now 2 games above .500.

The Play: Commanders -4

Denver Broncos (3-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-8)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Broncos -2.5

O/U: 36

Here is the game I hope to not have anywhere on my screen over the course of Sunday afternoon. I will keep this one short and simple as I will laythe points again here with Denver (they can’t let me down every week can they). It seems as if the playcalling duties have switched hands in Denver and that possibly can change the fortune of their offense going forward. I trust Denver’s defense to hush whatever Carolina has to offer and as long as Denver’s offense can put up a mere 17 they should find themselves with a win and the cover.

The Play: Broncos -2.5

Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)

When: 1 PM on 11/27

Line: Ravens -4

O/U: 43.5

Baltimore’s offense has seemed to have lost their way as the explosion we saw at the beginning of the season has been nowhere to be found as of late. Jacksonville comes back from a week of bye rest to welcome in Baltimore. I was originally slated to take the under here in this game but landed on taking the points with the home underdog. I think Coach Doug Pederson will have a good game plan designed to pick apart at Baltimore’s weaknesses. Jacksonville has shown to be a better team than last year but unable to close games late which is perfect as I grab 4 points. Baltimore ultimately wins this game late with a Justin Tucker field goal helping them win on the road but helping us get to the window with the underdog.

The Play: Jaguars +4

Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)

When: 4:05 PM on 11/27

Line: Chargers -4.5

O/U: 47.5

Chargers offense seems to have found their stride with the return of Keenan Allen and breakout of WR Josh Palmer on Sunday night against Kansas City. Justin Herbert will be leaned on heavily down the stretch run for Los angeles as they try to make a playoff push. Chargers defense has shown to be shaky at best over the course of the season being decimated by injuries. I wish I could throw a disclaimer on this play with the health of Kyler Murray still in question but feel confident on this over total if the franchise QB is able to suit up in this ocontest.

The Play: Over 47.5

Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)

When: 4:05 PM on 11/27

Line: Seahawks -3.5

O/U: 47.5

Seattle welcomes in in Las Vegas after having a week of rest to prepare for this game coming off their bye week. I believe Seattle will be up and ready for this game which is why I will lay the points. Seattle’s defense has been a nice surprise as they have found some late gems in the draft to bolster their back end of their defense, but the main reason I find myself laying the points here is because of their offense. I believe in Geno Smith and the numerous weapons he has on the outside paired with the breakout of RB Kenneth Walker will be too much for this Vegas team to stop. The line ends up just right as the Seahawks win by 4 late in the second half.

The Play: Seahawks -3.5

Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)

When: 4:25 PM on 11/27

Line: Chiefs -14.5

O/U: 44

What looked like once a great game on paper prior to the start of the season now looks like an overwhelming game with Chiefs slotted to win big. Rather than laying the points with the Chiefs I will be playing the under as I figure that Kansas City will be up quick and rather than run up the score they will burn clock over the course of Sunday afternoon and get out of dodge under the total. I don’t expect a lot from Los Angeles on offense as they are without their best offesnvie weapon still in Cooper Kupp and are slated to be without starting QB Matthew Stafford yet again. Not a whole lot to break down on offense for the Rams here as this one shouldn’t be close.

The Play: Under 44

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)

When: 4:25 PM on 11/27

Line: 49ers -9

O/U: 43

It looks as if the 49ers have finally figured I tout on offense as they put up 38 points on Monday night in Mexico against their division rival Arizona Cardinals. I expect more of the same here for San Francisco as they should find themselves close to 30 again if not over and with a New Orleans team who isn’t afraid to throw the ball deep they should help us get over the total in this one. My only fear in this game is that an elite San Francisco defense shows up yet again and quiets New Orleans to under 14 points which will find us under the total, but ultimately believe that garbage time will be our friend.

The Play: Over 43

Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

When: 8:20 PM on 11/27

Line: Eagles -7

O/U: 46.5

One of the hardest games of the weekend to break down as the line and total seem right on point. I finally landed on playing the over as Philly will get their offense back on track with Aaron Rodgers trying to play hero ball late. Not in love with this play at all as I can also see how this one goes comfortably under the total here. The more I continue to think the more I continue to doubt so will keep this one short and sweet as both teams find themselves above 20 in this contest helping us secure the over.

The Play: Over 46.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)

When: 8:15 PM on 11/28

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 39

A thriller is slated for us on Monday night as two offensive powerhouses should combine for what is figured to be a great game. April fools. I’m playing the under here as we’ve seen the type of football that Indy wants to play under Jeff Saturday as they want to run the ball grind out the clock to put themselves in a position to win it late. I expect a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor in this game and now that TJ Watt is back for Pittsburgh the elite defense is back as well. Both defenses are great and I expect the punters to be more involved than the field goal kickers in this one as they play ping pong back and forth throughout Monday night trying to pin the offenses deep in their own territory.

The Play: Under 39