By: Nick Radivoj

Week 13 is here as we wave goodbye to the Cardinals and Panthers for one week as they enjoy their Winter Break hopefully on a beach somewhere. The ball did not bounce our way Week 12 as we ended up going 7-9 bringing our season total to 91-54-4 (51.7%) on the year. A lot of great NFL action ahead of us with several opportunities to take advantage of value plays so let’s not waste any time as we dive right in to Week 13.

Buffalo Bills (8-3) at New England Patriots (6-5)

When: 8:15 PM on 12/1

Line: Bills -5

O/U: 43.5

An exciting AFC East divisional matchup is set for a Thursday Night Football matchup between a team fighting for the #1 seed and a team fighting to get into the big dance. I’m grabbing the number here with the Patriots at home as they will need to throw the kitchen sink at the Bills in order to get an upset. Buffalo has looked more vulnerable over the past month of football and I expect New England to give a heavy dose of Rhomandre Stevenson throughout the night. I believe over is a good play here as well as New England’s defense looks more human after Minnesota’s offensive explosion against them on Thanksgiving night.

The Play: Patriots +5

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7) at Atlanta Falcons (5-7)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Steelers -1

O/U: 43

I will be laying the points here with the road team as Pittsburgh gets hot coming off a MNF win against Indy. Pittsburgh has too many offensive weapons for Atlanta to quiet down all afternoon which will lead to the Steelers soaring over 20 points. TJ Watt is back and so is a scary defense in Pittsburgh as the whole nature of the defense is different with him in the lineup. I expect heavy pressure all day on Marcus Mariota and potentially a few turnovers which will account for some easy scores for Kenny Pickett.

The Play: Steelers -1

Green Bay Packers (4-8) at Chicago Bears (3-9)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 42.5

Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love? Either way no problem. Chicago has a bottom tier defense which Green Bay should be able to capitalize on. I believe that Justin Fields may not be back for this game either as there is no need to rush him back from injury with nothing to play for down the stretch here. Chicago is already down their top receiving option in Darnell Mooney who suffered a season ending ankle injury so adding a long term Fields’ injury on top of that by rushing him back wouldn’t be great news for a young Chicago team. If Fields does end up playing I love this play a little less but still feel that Green Bay will come out victorious in either outcome.

The Play: Packers -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7) at Detroit Lions (4-7)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Lions -1

O/U: 51.5

Not many times you can find me suggesting a Detroit Lions under and you won’t find it here either. Detroit’s defense has been better as of late but if Trevor Lawrence is build off his last game throwing over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns last week then I feel good. Detroit will provide what we have seen most all season on offense which is explosion from an exciting and unique offense. Be on the lookout for redzone to jump over to this game a lot throughout the afternoon as a shootout should be in store for these two young teams.

The Play: Over 51.5

New York Jets (7-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-2)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Vikings -3

O/U: 45.5

Under is the play here as New York has shown to have a top defense in the NFL which should be up for the task in slowing down Justin Jefferson and this Minnesota explosive offense. I don’t expect Mike White’s offensive output to continue as he was able to go up against a bottom tier defense I Chicago last week. Minnesota is different than Chicago both in terms of talent on defense and location. Location may seem like a weird thing to lock in on but Minnesota has one of the best home field advantages in football which should throw some confusion at a relatively young New York offense.

The Play: Under 45.5

Washington Commanders (7-5) at New York Giants (7-4)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Commanders -2.5

O/U: 40.5

NFC East divisional match up which could go a long way in determining who ends up making the playoffs later in the season. New York has the injury bug at wide receiver as they will be without 3 of their top options on the outside. New York’s biggest threat on offense is their star RB in Saquon Barkley which is surprisingly good news for Washington. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in football which should be up for the task in slowing down New York. Meanwhile, Washington has a nice plethora of weapons on the outside to attack New York deep and expose their outside corners. If it wasn’t obvious enough already I will be laying the points with the road team here.

The Play: Commanders -2.5

Tennessee Titans (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Eagles -5.5

O/U: 44.5

Philadelphia has one of the best records in football but has shown some vulnerability over the past few weeks of football. Ever since Jordan Davis went down with injury Philly’s run defense has been susceptible against both Washington and Green Bay over the past couple of weeks. I expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry in this contest and the Titans try to control the clock and the game. Philly is a run first type of team and Tennessee has a very stout defensive line which should be up for the task here led by Jeffrey Simmons. If this doesn’t get ugly fast I have confidence in Tennessee to keep this one within the number. If Philly jumps out to a big lead all bets are off if Ryan Tannehill has to play catch up.

The Play: Titans +5.5

Denver Broncos (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Ravens -8

O/U: 38.5

I have flipped multiple times in this contest as I originally laid the points with Baltimore then came back to potentially play the under. Ultimately, I land on the home team laying the points here as Baltimore wins by double digits. My biggest fear in this match up is that Baltimore will have a double digit lead late as each of their losses have come at the hands of losing a double digit lead late. Luckily, Baltimore will be tasked with stopping one of the worst defenses in the NFL in Denver. Denver is unable to string together plays for long drives and don’t have explosion o offense to score in 1 play. Baltimore should be able to control the ground game similarly to how Carolina did last week against Denver at home. Lamar and company earn their 8^th win of the season as Denver falls yet again.

The Play: Ravens -8

Cleveland Browns (4-7) at Houston Texans (1-9-1)

When: 1 PM on 12/4

Line: Browns -7

O/U: 47

11 week suspension is up and Deshaun Watson is officially cleared to play again in the NFL. I’m excited to see how this game pans out as Watson returns to Houston where he spent every year of his career so far. I expect a blow out from Cleveland here as they will be too much to handle for Houston both offensively and defensively. Kyle Allen started for Houston last week and looked rather lost out there as Miai was able to pressure Allen all throughout the afternoon. I expect Myles Garrett to have the same kind of impact in this one as turnovers should be in order for this Cleveland defense.

The Play: Browns -7

Seattle Seahawks (6-5) at Los Angeles Rams (3-8)

When: 4:05 PM on 12/4

Line: Seahawks -8

O/U: 41.5

This will be short and sweet as I lay the points with Seattle on the road. The amount of players not playing for Los Angeles will be too much to overcome as they will be without Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, a majority of their offensive line starters, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald in this one. Seattle has dropped 2 straight as they became the hunted as opposed to the hunter and need to establish that they are a team to be feared going into their late season push.

The Play: Seahawks -8

Miami Dolphins (8-3) at San Francisco 49ers (47-4)

When: 4:05 PM on 12/4

Line: 49ers -3.5

O/U: 46.5

The apprentice meets the master in this one as former OC for the 49esrs Mike McDaniel comes back to California to upset the home favorites. Unfortunately, Miami will be without one of their prized offseason acquisitions in Terron Armstead. This is a rather big loss as Armstead has been one of the best OTs in football when playing this year. Without him, I expect constant pressure coming from the left side as Nick Bosa will be challenging to block single handed. Double teams are sure to be in order all afternoon for Mr. Bosa. I expect Miami to stay away from the run game and attack San Francisco through the air with their speed demons they have on the outside. 49ers on offense will be able to attack Miami through the air as well as Miami has had difficulty stopping tight ends this year. I expect a big game from George Kittle and Miami’s top WR’s as this one goes flying over the total.

The Play: Over 46.5

Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)

When: 4:25 PM on 12/4

Line: Chiefs –2.5

O/U: 52.5

A rather easy one here for me as Kansas City looks for their redemption from last year as they dropped 2 pivotal games against Cincinnati last year. If Kansas City loses this game not only does their confidence shake in terms of beating Cincy but they will have lost the #1 seed in the playoffs with 5 games left to play if Buffalo beats New England on Thursday night. Andy Reid will have the team up and ready to play for this one with an improved defense to help stop Joe Burrow and company.  If you would rather stick away from a side then the over would be a fun and exciting way to keep in touch with what’s happening in this one.

The Play: Chiefs -2.5

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)

When: 4:25 PM on 12/4

Line: Chargers -2

O/U: 50.5

Most of me wanted to lay the points here with Justin Herbert and the Chargers but I ultimately land on the over. I believe Josh Jacobs will have a field day against Los Angeles run defense as long as he comes into the game healthy. Las Vegas can pair their ground game nicely with Devante Adams outside to put up north of 20 points in this one. Meanwhile, Chargers will be able to move the ball on Las Vegas’ defense as Seattle easily threw up over 30 last weekend. Justin Herbert throws for 3 touchdowns again and continue their playoff push.

The Play: Over 50.5

Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3)

When: 8:20 PM on 12/4

Line: Cowboys -11

O/U: 44

Dallas has looked every bit the part of a Super Bowl contender throughout this year. They have a top defense behind young players like Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. When Dallas’ offense gets clicking with the weapons they have paired with their defense they will be a tough out late in the season as playoffs game around. I expect Dallas’ defense to shut down what little offense Indy has and for Dallas to build up a lead to take the air out of the ball in the second half. Dallas reaches the 20 point threshold but their top defense quiets Indy to under 17 as we land an under win.

The Play: Under 44

New Orleans Saints (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

When: 8:15 PM on 12/5

Line: Buccaneers -3.5

O/U: 40

Both offenses have looked rather pedestrian over the past month or so of football but we stand here on Monday Night Football to play the over. These 2 teams know each other and know what the other is best at. New Orleans won’t waste their time trying to run the ball against Tampa and will air the ball out to attack the weakest part of their defense being their back end. Meanwhile, Tampa has found a better compliment of the run and pass game as of late and depending on which New Orleans defense shows up they could have their way on offense with their top weapons outside.

The Play: Over 40