TGIS was HOT in week 6 going 9-4-1. This puts us at 55.2% on the year which is also the exact same percentage we have overall (also congrats to us for hitting 200 wins). But the 24 hour celebration rule has expired, enough partying. LETS GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 6 Game of the Week (All Times CST)
#3 Alabama -7 at #6 Tennessee – 2:30pm
Will Bryce Young start? Will he not start? That is the question every bettor has to ponder for the TGIS Game of the Week. If Bryce Young does start, this line is way too low as Tennessee’s secondary is a below average unit. However, if Jalen Milroe starts, this line is too high as Tennessee has a great run defense and can focus on shutting down the run. On the offensive side it is going to be a great battle between Tennessee’s wide receivers: Cedric Tillman (I bet he plays), Jalin Hyatt, and Bru McCoy and Alabama’s secondary. However, Tennessee will need to get the ball out quick because nobody in the country can block Will Anderson and Dallas Turner. Overall, I think there is a 70% chance Bryce Young plays and this is gambling… so give me the advantageous line of -7.
Pick: Alabama 38-27
Top Picks of the Week
Iowa State at #22 Texas -16 – 11:00am
Iowa State can’t score at all. Meanwhile, Texas with Quinn Ewers at quarterback has been statistically one of the best offenses in the nation. Texas in a blowout at home.
#19 Kansas +9 at Oklahoma OVER 62.5 – 11:00am
I know, Dillon Gabriel should be back. But Kansas showed they can still move the ball with backup QB Jason Bean last week against TCU when they averaged 7.5 yards per play. Lance Leipold has an entire week to game plan with Jason Bean now and I think they can have success against a really bad Oklahoma defense. Kansas keeps this close with their backup QB…. and also POINTS POINTS POINTS.
Minnesota at #24 Illinois OVER 38 – 11:00am
I still believe in Minnesota’s offense with Tanner Morgan at quarterback and Kirk Ciarocca at OC. The Golden Gopher offense had one bad game against Purdue, but still averaged over 5 yards per play. On the other side of the ball, Illinois could have some success in the run game with Chase Brown. Give me the over 38.
#8 Oklahoma State at #13 TCU OVER 68.5 – 2:30pm
I’ll keep it short and sweet… I don’t trust either defense. Over hits in a very high scoring game.
Arkansas -1.5 at BYU – 2:30pm
Another quarterback injury question, will KJ Jefferson start? I’m not sure it matters as all year BYU has struggled to stop the run. Arkansas will run it on them all day in Provo, Utah. Arkansas by a touchdown.
#25 James Madison at Georgia Southern +12.5 – 3:00pm
James Madison has only played one tough game this year… that was App State where it was a close one score game. I love the James Madison story, but getting double digit points on the road is disrespectful to Georgia Southern. Give me the points.
#4 Clemson -3.5 at Florida State – 6:30pm
Florida State has had some major injuries including Jared Verse. This is not a deep Florida State team either where the backups are not Power 5 ready players. I did a double take with this line and I’m going to take the bait. Clemson takes care of business and wins by over a touchdown.
#16 Mississippi State -4 at #22 Kentucky – 6:30pm
The theme this week is quarterback questions and if there is no Will Levis, there is no chance Kentucky keeps this within one score. Backup QB Kaiya Sheron is a huge drop off in talent level. Not to mention they will most likely miss their top two wide receivers in this game. The line is way too low, Bulldogs win big.
#7 USC +3.5 at #20 Utah OVER 63 – 7:00pm
I still do not trust the USC defense, especially against the run. However, I’m not really trusting Utah’s defense after giving up 42 to UCLA. USC and Utah will both be able to put up points. I like the over and the cover.
We had a chance last week for our 200th victory overall. But we will get it this week as we are spraying the board. Oh and by the way… the Miller Lite Minute is 12-4 on the season. LET’S GET TO THE PICKS
Week 6 Game of the Week (All Times CST)
#8 Tennessee -2.5 at #25 LSU – 11:00am
I guess this the game of the week? But anyways, LSU was lucky to win against Auburn after only putting up 270 total yards and 3.6 yards per play. That won’t beat this Tennessee team that has scored at least 34 points every game this year. LSU will not be able to score enough points to keep up.
Pick: Tennessee 38-27
TOP PICKS OF THE WEEK
Louisville -3 at Virginia – 11:00am
Virginia has been struggling all year with no offensive line and a stagnant Tony Elliot offense. After getting beat by Duke 38-17, look for Virginia to fall big against Louisville (I have faith starting Louisville QB Malik Cunningham will play).
Arkansas +9.5 at #23 Mississippi State – 11:00am
This line is way too big. Arkansas has won the last two games against Mississippi State with Barry Odom at DC. The Razorbacks defense will continue to have a good plan of attack to slow down this Bulldog offense. I like Arkansas and maybe even a little moneyline sprinkle at +275.
#5 Clemson -20.5 at Boston College – 11:00am
Boston College has a terrible offensive line that is decimated by injuries. Clemson’s defensive line will take advantage. And do not look now, but DJU is actually playing decent at QB this year. Clemson in a blowout.
#17 TCU at #19 Kansas Over 67.5 – 11:00am
I do not trust Kansas’ defense to slow down this TCU offense. I also think Kansas and Jalon Daniels will be able to enter a track meet with TCU to keep the scoring pace. Over hits.
Texas -7 vs Oklahoma – 11:00am
Oklahoma’s defense is just awful. There were scheme breaks everywhere against TCU last week. Meanwhile, Quinn Ewers could be back and Dillon Gabriel may miss the game… seven points is nowhere near enough even though it is a rivalry game. Texas by double digits.
Texas Tech +10 at #7 Oklahoma State – 2:30pm
Oklahoma State is ranked 7th but is fraudulent. The Pokes were outgained by Baylor and the defense gave up 6.5 yards per play. What do we do? FADE THE FRAUDS. Texas Tech keeps it close.
#3 Ohio State -26.5 at Michigan State – 3:00pm
I have told you the last two weeks Michigan State’s secondary is awful. They have zero shot to stop the best passing attack in the Big Ten… Ohio State.
Duke -3 at Georgia Tech – 3:00pm
It was very impressive for Georgia Tech to go on the road and beat Pittsburgh. But it was a little fluky with Jeff Sims only having 102 passing yards. Duke has been the better team and hasn’t fired their coach this year, unlike Georgia Tech. Vegas has not caught up on Duke, Blue Devils win by a touchdown.
Army +17 at Wake Forest – 6:30pm
Wake Forest could not stop Army last year when they had 595 yards of total offense. Army will keep this close.
Iowa +4 at Illinois – 6:30pm
No I don’t trust Iowa to score, but I don’t really trust Illinois to score on Iowa either. Take the 4 points and run. (The under 35.5 is tempting)
South Carolina +10.5 at #13 Kentucky – 6:30pm
The battle of the bad offensive lines. Kentucky is favored by way too many points here. Northern Illinois was able to keep it a single digit deficit against Kentucky… South Carolina can do it too. (Update: Kentucky starting QB Will Levis is questionable for the game).
Texas A&M at #1 Alabama -23.5 – 7:00pm
This is a revenge game for Alabama similar to 2020 against LSU. Alabama’s players are motivated to demolish a banged up A&M team (injuries to the starting QB and all across the defense). Look for Bryce Young to play and Alabama to win BIG.
#12 Oregon -13 at Arizona – 8:00pm
Arizona gave up 49 points against Cal… I can’t trust them at all. Oregon’s offense has been rolling and they’ll roll here. Oregon wins big in Tuscon.
BONUS PICK THAT DIDN’T MAKE THE CARD
Kent State -5.5 at Miami (Ohio) – 2:30pm
Kent State put up 736 yards of offense last week against Ohio and I think they’re the best team in the MAC. Miami Ohio continues to have their starting QB Brett Gabbert out. Kent State wins big.
Another OK, above 50% week for TGIS. But if you have been paying attention to the Miller Lite Minute… we are an astounding 10-3 through the first four weeks!! We are going to have the success of the Miller Lite bleed over into these week 5 locks… LETS GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 5 Game of the Week (All Times CST)
#2 Alabama at #20 Arkansas UNDER 61 – 6:00pm
Alabama has a top five defense in the nation and should be able to slow down Arkansas’ attack. Meanwhile, Alabama’s offense has not shown it can travel on the road (last five ranked road games 1-4 against the spread). If you were to take Arkansas +17.5 I wouldn’t hate it… But I like the under more.
Pick: Alabama 34-17.
TOP PICKS OF THE WEEK
#4 Michigan -10.5 at Iowa – 11:00am
Maryland kept up with Michigan in their 34-27 game because they could throw the ball around. That is something Iowa absolutely cannot do. Michigan takes care of business.
Purdue at #21 Minnesota -12.5 – 11:00am
Starting QB Aidan O’Connell is most likely out along with a few other players. Meanwhile, Tanner Morgan and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca are picking up where they left off after Minnesota’s 2019 season where they finished 11-2. Minnesota keeps rolling.
Wake Forest at Florida State -6.5 – 11:00am
Jordan Travis came back from injury against Boston College last week and looked fantastic. Wake Forest can’t stop anyone, Florida State wins this one by 10.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina OVER 51 – 11:00am
Notre Dame had scored 55 points all season before playing North Carolina… they then scored 45 points against them last week. Meanwhile the Tar Heels have scored more than 32 points in every game this season. Over easily hits.
#18 Oklahoma -6.5 at TCU – 2:30pm
TCU’s offense looked very good against SMU… but that was SMU Oklahoma will have a bounce back week and Venables will get the defense right. By the way… nothing is wrong with the Oklahoma offense after racking up 7.5 yards per play against Kansas State.
Michigan State at Maryland -7 – 2:30pm
I told you last week Michigan State’s secondary was trash. Maryland can throw the ball and take advantage. Maryland wins big.
Cal at Washington State UNDER 53.5 – 4:30pm
The offenses aren’t as good as they seem from last week (even though both team put up over 40 points). The number is inflated… expect a low scoring ugly game.
LSU -8 at Auburn – 6:00pm
Auburn has a terrible offensive line, they can’t run the ball, the wide receivers are not good, most of their quarterbacks are banged up… should I go on? LSU blows them out and this is Bryan Harsin’s last game as the head coach.
#10 NC State at #5 Clemson OVER 40 – 6:30pm
Clemson just played a 51-45 game and the Over/Under is 40 points??? Clemson’s secondary is still banged up and quarterback Devin Leary will be able to take advantage. I expect more of a 27-24 type of game.
We have started just OK in 2022. However if you have been paying attention to the Miller Lite Minute… we are an astounding 7-2 through the first three weeks with two undefeated weeks (for you three game parlayers out there). We are going to have a great week 4… LETS GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 4 Game of the Week (All Times CST)
#10 Arkansas +2 vs. #23 Texas A&M UNDER 48.5 – 6:00pm
Texas A&M showed a slight improvement to the offense against Miami… but it still was not great. I’d expect a low scoring game with Arkansas loving to run the ball and Texas A&M attempting to do whatever they do with Max Johnson. Arkansas has had really bad injury luck to their defensive backs, but returns a few guys including starter Myles Slusher for this game. Texas A&M won’t be able to take advantage anyways…
Pick: Arkansas 21-17.
TOP PICKS OF THE WEEK
#17 Baylor+3 at Iowa State UNDER 46 – 11:00am
This Baylor team averaged 3.6 yards per play against BYU. Meanwhile, the Iowa State Cyclones averaged just 4 yards per play against Iowa. These are two average offenses that won’t be able to score. Expect a low scoring, tough battle in Ames. Also give me the 3 points with the Baylor Bears.
TCU -2 at SMU – 11:00am
The Battle of the Iron Skillet is set to be played in Dallas, Texas. I really like TCU as they have a better defense and the more talented team. Expect quite a bit of points, but TCU to pull it off especially after SMU’s performance against Maryland. TCU 38-31
#5 Clemson -7 at #21 Wake Forest – 11:00am
Wake Forest had just 11 yards rushing from their running backs against Liberty and you expect them to stay within a touchdown of Clemson? No way, Clemson by double digits.
#20 Florida +11 at #11 Tennessee – 2:30pm
Tennessee’s offense will score, but Florida can keep this a single digit ball game. I expect it to be like the 7 point game Tennessee played with Pittsburgh (the close game between Florida and USF was a look ahead game… write it off).
Minnesota -3 at Michigan State – 2:30pm
The Michigan State secondary is absolutely garbage. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca and quarterback Tanner Morgan will be able to take advantage. Minnesota wins decisively.
Notre Dame at North Carolina -1.5 – 2:30pm
The battle of a bad offense (Notre Dame) verse a poor defense (North Carolina). The difference here is that North Carolina’s offense is the best unit of the bunch with one of the top quarterbacks in the nation: Drake Maye. North Carolina wins this and the Notre Dame nightmare season continues.
Texas at Texas Tech UNDER 60 – 2:30pm
The Texas defense is much improved from last year and that will give Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith some trouble, especially considering his interceptions issues the last few games. Additionally, Texas has been much more conservative with Hudson Card in the lineup than when they let Quin Ewers sling the ball around. The under 60 is the play here.
#7 USC -6.5 at Oregon State – 8:30pm
USC’s offense looks fantastic. But the defense is still an issue as they gave up over 6 yards per play with Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener still in the lineup (before he was injured). The Oregon State offensive line, one of the best in the Pac-12, may be able to take advantage. But this is too much offense for Oregon State to keep up. USC 45-35.
#13 Utah -14.5 at Arizona State – 9:30pm
Utah will get back to dominate football and Arizona State may just quit after their coach Herm Edwards was fired this past week. Utah runs away with it.
The big question going into this game is whether wide receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney will play. .. or whether Romney will miss out on Oregon like the 2012 election. During BYU’s game against Baylor they showed some vulnerability against the run. Oregon has a good offensive line which can take advantage of the BYU defensive line. I like Oregon to win.
Pick: Oregon 27-21
#13 Miami +5.5 at #24 Texas A&M – 8:00pm
Can Texas A&M get back on track? After a terrible game against Appalachian State where their offense could not move the ball at all, the Aggies now have the Hurricanes coming to College Station. I’m expecting this to be a very close game. Expect Texas A&M to perform much better this week… but I’m still taking Miami. It comes down to trusting Tyler Van Dyke over Texas A&M. We are not locking this one up though due to the wild card that is Texas A&M football right now.
Pick: Miami 21-20
Top Picks of the Week
Air Force -15 at Wyoming – Friday 7:00pm
Air Force just got done absolutely obliterating Colorado 41-10 and rushing for 435 yards. What does Wyoming not do well? Stop the run. Air Force is an underrated team and who I think will end up winning the Mountain West. Air Force wins big.
#1 Georgia -24 at South Carolina – 11:00am
South Carolina’s offensive line has not been good in the first two games of the season. Now they are facing a vicious Georgia defensive front seven. Georgia took their foot off the pedal last week against Samford because Samford head coach Chris Hatcher gave Kirby Smart his first job. The Dawgs won’t be as nice to South Carolina. Georgia wins big.
Purdue at Syracuse (-0) – 11:00am
If you haven’t noticed, new Syracuse offensive coordinator Robert Anae has flipped this offense around with a new offense. Sean Tucker is one of the most underrated running backs in the nation for the Orange… and why I like them to win at home.
Vanderbilt +2.5 at Northern Illinois – 2:30pm
Northern Illinois has beat Eastern Illinois (FCS) by 7 and lost to Tulsa by 3. No way would I pick them to beat Vanderbilt where quarterback Mike Wright has been impressive. Vanderbilt is a competent team that ends up winning this game.
Kansas +10 at Houston – 3:00pm
Houston has played in two straight overtime games where they have scored at least 30 points. Kansas is also coming off a 55-42 OT win where their defense did not play well. I think both teams will be able to score plenty of points with Kansas keeping it close. Take a Lance Leipold coached team to make this a game.
Texas Tech +10.5 at NC State – 6:00pm
NC State plays a very conservative style of play where winning by double digits is unlikely. Plus this is a very scrappy, decent Tech team that will keep it close. Texas Tech covers (maybe even worth a little money line sprinkle).
Michigan State +3.5 at Washington UNDER 57 – 6:30pm
Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard are one of the best running back combos in college football for the Spartans. Michigan State is the much better team and you get 3.5 points. Meanwhile, I’m not trusting the untested Washington offense with Michael Penix at quarterback. This is going to be a low scoring Michigan State win.
We always have done well in week one here at TGIS as we take advantage of Vegas mistaken evaluations of a few teams and spreads. Last week we finished 7-5-1, not great, not bad… decent. Now onto Week 2 where we will be on the road to Austin… LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 2 Games of the Week (All Times CST)
#1 Alabama -20 at Texas – 11:00am
This may be the best Alabama defense since 2016. Add in an inexperienced Texas offensive line… I do not think Texas will be able to move the ball. Bama wins this in a blowout. I’m talking a 52-10 kind of blowout.
Top Picks of the Week
Louisville at Central Florida -6.5 – Friday 6:30pm
Louisville looked absolutely awful against Syracuse. They could not stop a dual threat in quarterback Garrett Shrader. You know who starts for quarterback at UCF? Former Ole Miss dual threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee who threw for 308 yards and ran for 87 yards in his first game starting for UCF. Plumlee is going to give this Louisville trouble in the Bounce House.
South Carolina +8.5 at #16 Arkansas – 11:00am
Arkansas played decently against Cincinnati, but nine points against another good SEC team? Way too many points. Arkansas most likely wins, but think this will be close.
#24 Tennessee -6.5 at #17 Pittsburgh – 2:30pm
Pittsburgh Coach Pat Narduzzi is back to playing conservative football despite having a decent quarterback. Meanwhile, Tennessee will play fast and efficient offense with quarterback Hendon Hooker. Pitt won’t be able to keep up with the scoring, Tennessee by double digits.
Iowa State +3.5 at Iowa UNDER 41.5 – 3:00pm
Iowa’s offense is the ugliest thing I’ve ever seen. They had 166 total yards and 2.7 yards per play against South Dakota State. The under and taking Iowa State with the points is an easy call.
#25 Houston at Texas Tech -2.5 OVER 65.5 – 3:00pm
Texas Tech hired offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Western Kentucky. Kittley loves to play fast and throw the ball around. I’m not worried about Texas Tech’s starting quarterback Tyler Shough being out for the game. If we are being honest, backup quarterback Donovan Smith is just as good, maybe even better. The Red Raiders beat Houston after the Cougars just scraped by a triple OT game against UTSA.
#20 Kentucky at #12 Florida -5.5 – 6:00pm
The key is if running back Chris Rodriguez is still suspended. Coach Stoops hasn’t came out and said anything regarding his status, but without him, Kentucky struggled to run the ball against Miami (Ohio). Florida will be a much bigger challenge especially with star quarterback Anthony Richardson coming off a huge win against Utah. Florida wins this in the Swamp by over a touchdown.
#10 USC -9 at Stanford – 6:30pm
Stanford doesn’t have the offense to keep it close with USC. Caleb Williams and USC are going to score a ton of points. USC in a blowout.
Arizona State at #11 Oklahoma State OVER 58 – 6:30pm
I don’t know if you saw Oklahoma State’s defense… but they gave up 44 points against Central Michigan. I also think the Cowboys will have success offensively. A 58 point total is way too low (hope you got it at the start of the week when it was at 54.5).
#9 Baylor at #21 BYU -3.5 – 9:15pm
BYU looked like a legit top 25 team against South Florida in week 1. I think they will be able to take advantage again as they face a Baylor team that lost a ton of key secondary players from last year. I really like BYU over Baylor as the better team, ignore Baylor being ranked in the AP poll top ten. BYU gets the big victory in the Mormons vs. Baptists.
We finally have a full-lineup of college football games this Saturday (and some sprinkled in on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday). Time for an action packed weekend after a little appetizer in week 0 (one where we finished 1-2). We are leaving that behind us… LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 1 Games of the Week (All Times CST)
#11 Oregon vs. #3 Georgia (-17) – 2:30pm (Atlanta, GA)
In a “neutral field” game in Atlanta, the Bulldogs are the more talented team. Sure they lost quite a few players on the defensive side of the ball to the NFL draft, but Georgia has the depth to reload. Where they really excel is at the skill positions with a great wide receiver and tight end room which will make it easy to score points. Finally, in a four-year tradition at TGIS, WE DO NOT TRUST BO NIX. Georgia in a blowout.
Pick: Georgia 42-17
#23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas (-6) – 2:30pm
An exciting matchup comes to Fayetteville where the Hogs are less than a touchdown favorite against Cincinnati. Nine players were drafted off of the 2021 Bearcat team including six on the defensive side of the ball. That isn’t easy to replace. Arkansas runs all over Cincinnati in a double digit win.
Pick: Arkansas 31-17
#5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State OVER 59 – 6:30pm
This 17.5 point line is about right. No way I am going to start out the year betting against one of the most talented offenses in the nation (Ohio State if it wasn’t obvious). What I am betting against is that there is a massive improvement from the Buckeyes defense. Notre Dame puts up some points to help with the over.
Pick: Ohio State 45-27
Top Picks of the Week
Penn State (-3.5) at Purdue – Thursday 7:00pm
Purdue lost their two best players off of last year’s team: edge rusher George Karlaftis and WR David Bell. Purdue doesn’t have the talent to replace them, especially at wide receiver. With Penn State’s best unit being in the secondary they will take advantage and force Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell into throwing some bad balls. Penn State is the better team and wins by over a touchdown.
Illinois (+3) at Indiana – Friday 7:00pm
Illinois will run the ball with running back Chase Brown all over a bad Indiana defense. Illinois is the better team and we will gladly take the points.
TCU (-13.5) at Colorado – Friday 9:00pm
Colorado is the worst team in the Pac-12 as they lost a ton of players to the transfer portal. TCU on the other hand has more talent than you’d think. TCU in a blowout.
North Carolina (-1.5) at Appalachian State – Saturday 11:00am
I wish the Tar Heels looked more impressive against Florida A&M last week. But I’m still trusting my gut. North Carolina as a middle to upper tier ACC team over just an OK App State team.
#13 NC State (-11.5) at East Carolina – Saturday 11:00am
NC State has an awesome defense and one of the best QBs in the country. I consider the Wolf Pack a fringe top ten team and believe they will easily handle the ECU Pirates.
Arizona (+6) at San Diego St. – Saturday 2:30 pm
San Diego State was a super conservative team last year. The fact is they do not blow teams out. Look for Arizona to be much better than last year with QB Jayden De Laura transferring from Washington State. I actually like a moneyline sprinkle on it as well with the Wildcats pulling the upset..
Tulsa (-6.5) at Wyoming – Saturday 2:30 pm
We are starting the year with a “Fade the bottom of the Mountain West” principle (this applies to Wyoming, Hawaii and Nevada as they may be a few of the worst teams in the FBS which was caused by transfers leaving). A Tulsa team led by Senior QB Davis Brin will handle Wyoming just fine.
Texas State (+1) at Nevada – Saturday 4:30 pm
(See Tulsa/Wyoming analysis…. same principle applies).
Georgia State at South Carolina (-12.5) – Saturday 6:30 pm
South Carolina has the Spencer Rattler era starting as less than a two touchdown favorite at home against Georgia State. Georgia State isn’t very good against the pass… look for the Gamecocks to blow them out of the water. Take South Carolina.
Florida State vs. LSU (-3) – Sunday 6:30 pm (New Orleans, LA)
LSU has one of the best receiving groups in the nation and a very good defensive line. LSU is the more talented team that will take advantage of what basically is a home game in New Orleans. LSU by a touchdown.
Hand up. We had a mediocre 2021 betting record finishing the year around 54%. But we have studied all off season for this moment. WE ARE READY TO FIRE AWAY AT WEEK 0. There are just a handful of games, but still plenty of action to be had.
WE ARE BACK. WE ARE BACK. WE ARE BACK. LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 0 Game of the Week (All Times CST)
Northwestern vs Nebraska (-12) – 11:30am (Dublin, Ireland)
LIVE FROM DUBLIN, IRELAND FOR HIGH FLYING BIG TEN ACTION. New Nebraska offensive coordinator Mark Whipple comes from Pittsburgh where he put up an offensive clinic. He will try to show off in his first game with experienced transfer QB Casey Thompson. Meanwhile, Northwestern’s defense was absolutely awful last year and lost their best player, Brandon Joseph, via transfer to Notre Dame. Look for a blowout in Dublin, Nebraska by 2+ touchdowns.
Pick: Nebraska 31-10
Top Pick(s) of the Week
North Texas at UTEP (+1) – 8:00pm
North Texas lost dynamic twin brother defensive ends Gabriel and Grayson Murphy. Now, they have a very inexperienced defensive line. On the other side, UTEP brings back 14 starters. I give UTEP the slight edge as a better team… then you add in the fact that it is at home and UTEP is getting points. UTEP is the play.
Vanderbilt (-6.5) at Hawaii – 9:30pm
Hawaii had ten starters leave on the defensive side and has a new head coach in Timmy Chang. Compare that to Vanderbilt who has 13 starters returning with a decent recruiting class coming in. Vanderbilt is way more talented than one of the worst teams in the Mountain West. Do not overrate the Hawaii homefield advantage, especially with them playing at Ching Field (seating capacity 9,300) while Aloha Stadium is under construction. Vanderbilt by over a touchdown.
Heisman trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young leads a very talented Alabama team. However, this year’s team may be led more by their defense. The strength is at edge rusher where Will Anderson, Dallas Turner, and Chris Braswell are all dangerous. The Crimson Tide still has strong units outside of this on the defense including secondary, linebacker and defensive line. As for the offense, transfer wide receivers Jermaine Burton, Tyler Harrell, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs will all step in and be major contributors. The major question mark and weakness of this team is at offensive tackle after Evan Neal was drafted in the top ten. Expect transfer offensive tackle Tyler Steen to fill in at left tackle, but right tackle remains wide open. Regardless, expect one of the better Nick Saban teams this year with the expectation being an appearance in the National Title.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected Record: 13-0
The Buckeyes were uncharacteristically bad on defense last year finishing 59th overall. Now Ryan Day has brought in new DC Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to change that. There are still questions on how good this defense can be with linebacker and cornerback being a mystery. The defense will be heavily reliant on Sophomore defensive linemen like JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and Tyleik Williams. Offensively, Ohio State will be one of the best in the nation with the top receiving group, top running back (TreVeyon Henderson), and a top quarterback (CJ Stroud). The great offense will be enough to get through the Big Ten, but the defense will need to step up if the Buckeyes want to be legitimate national title contenders.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected Record: 12-1
Georgia is back after their 2021 national championship win. However, the Bulldogs lost a ton on the defensive side. They still have plenty of talent to star on this team including one of the best defensive lineman in the country Jalen Carter. Nolan smith and Rober Beal also return as the starting pass rushers. The concern remains at inside linebacker as they lost three guys who were all drafted in the first three rounds. Also there is a question on who starts opposite of star cornerback Kellen Ringo. On offense, returning quarterback Stetson Bennett is efficient. But he struggled against elite defenses by often turning the ball over and is the least talented starter on offense. Georgia’s skill positions are deep with studs including Adonis Mitchell and Arian Smith at wideout. Georgia also has by far the deepest, most talented tight end room with Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert, and Darnell Washington. The offensive line is also one of the best in the nation. Overall, this has a team with enough talent to make the college football playoffs again. But replacing that much defensive talent to the NFL won’t be easy and may lead to an early College Football Playoff exit.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
Projected Record: 10-2
Texas A&M comes into the year with the overall number one recruiting class and a loaded roster. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball where they finished in the top ten last year. The secondary returns almost anybody including talented corner Jaylon Jones and safety Antonio Johnson. The question on that side of the ball is who steps up at defensive line after losing their top four guys off last year’s team? Lucky for the Aggies they have six five star freshman coming in and talented returning guys in Tunmise Adeleye, and McKinley Jackson. As for the offense, the Aggies have wide receivers ready to step in, but the best of the bunch might be true freshman Evan Stewart. Expect the offensive line to also be a solid, deep unit. There is one major question keeping this football team from reaching their potential… quarterback. The Aggies need Max Johnson, Haynes King, or Connor Weigman to step up if they want a chance at the SEC West or even the playoff. My gut tells me they’re not going to get that type of production and they’ll drop a few games during SEC play.
5. Utah Utes
Projected Record: 12-1
Utah was very close to a Rose Bowl victory last year against Ohio State. Now Utah returns their starting quarterback, Cam Rising, who had Utah playing as a top ten offense last year. The offense will be led through the tight ends Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid. On defense, Utah’s strength is at linebacker with Lander Barton and Mohamoud Diabate. It should be a strong unit, but they will need to find an edge rusher (Van Fillinger could be that guy). Overall, this should be the favorite in the Pac-12 and a potential College Football playoff team.
6. Clemson Tigers
Projected Record: 12-1
Clemson had an incredibly disappointing year last year and still finished 10-3. The problem last year was the offense as they finished 100th in yards per game. Whether they improve will be a major indicator on how far this team goes. If DJ Uiagalelei continues to decline look for true freshman Cade Klubnik to take over. On defense this is one of the greatest defensive lines in the country and, even after losing some key pieces in the secondary, Clemson should still finish as a top ten defense in the nation. Overall, I expect this team to be carried by the defense and the offense to improve from last season. Expect them to be on top of the ACC and be a college football playoff contender.
7. Michigan Wolverines
Projected Record: 10-2
The Wolverines are coming off a great season where they won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. The offense will be good again with either JJ McCarthy or Cade McNamara leading the group. Michigan has one of the deepest groups in the Big Ten at wide receiver, second to Ohio State. The question this year will be how Michigan replaces a ton of key leaders to their defense. The defensive line is especially thin and could keep Michigan from returning to the playoffs. Overall, this is a good team, but replacing that much defensive talent will be tough to make a return trip to the playoffs.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected Record: 9-3
The Marcus Freeman era starts at Notre Dame. Notre Dame is led by a strong offensive and defensive line. Tyler Buckner will take over as the starting QB along with a questionable wide receiver room. Overall, expect the Fighting Irish to be led by their defense. But the offense will need to step up if they want to be a legitimate playoff contender.
9. Oklahoma Sooners
Projected Record: 11-2
The Brent Venables era starts in Norman with a ton of turnover. The Sooners have the most talent in the Big 12, but return only eight starters from last year’s team. On offense UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel takes over at quarterback and instantly becomes one of the best in the conference. He has two talented receivers to throw to in Marvin Mims and Theo Wease. The offense will be explosive with new OC Jeff Lebby, but will need to get better offensive line play. On defense the Sooners are coming off a year where they finished 79th overall. The secondary was a huge issue last year and Brent Venables will have his hands full fixing it. Oklahoma will rely on a few transfers on the defensive line Jeffery Johnson from Tulane and Jonah La’ulu from Hawaii. Overall, this Oklahoma team is a mystery heading into the year where their success will depend heavily on the defense. The expectation should be Big 12 champions, but there are many contenders in the conference that can compete with this team.
10. NC State Wolfpack
Projected Record: 10-2
The Wolfpack have a really solid team going into 2022 and they are led by the best quarterback in the ACC, Devin Leary. If NC State opens up the passing game and lets him throw more, this is a team that could take down Clemson in the ACC Atlantic. Especially, because this team is so good defensively with ten returning starters to a top 20 defense. The defense is led by one of the best linebacker duos in college football between Drake Thomas and Payton Wilson. Overall, if I knew NC State would open up the offense a little more I would trust them to take down Clemson… but even if they don’t I still see this team with a good chance of getting to double digit wins.
11. Miami Hurricanes
Projected Record: 10-3
Miami found their quarterback of the future with the emergence of Tyler Van Dyke last year. Along with Van Dyke, Miami also has a solid offensive line and some talented tight ends. On defense this team was young last year, but return a ton of starters and added quality players via the transfer portal. The strength will be in the secondary after Miami played three talented freshman last year. West Virginia transfer Akheem Mesidor and Leonard Taylor make up a solid defensive tackle duo. Overall, in Mario Cristobal’s first season as head coach he has a solid team. If the defense matures quickly and the offense continues their momentum from last year… this is a legitimate ACC contender.
12. USC Trojans
Projected Record: 10-3
The Lincoln Riley era starts at USC. Coming with Riley are a ton of impact skill position transfers and quarterback Caleb Williams. The offense should be one of the nation’s best. Defense is another story. The linebackers, Alabama transfer Shane Leee and Romolo Heights were the best players on the defense in the spring. But the secondary and defensive line are not strong units. Overall, the offense will put up almost 40 points per game. But the defense will keep this team from being a playoff team.
13. Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected Record: 9-3
Penn State is coming off two disappointing years including finishing 7-6 last year. Starting quarterback Sean Clifford is back again for his super senior season, but there are questions on what his ceiling is. The offensive line has to make an improvement as they struggled last year, especially in the run game. Even with the loss of Jahan Dotson, Penn State still has quality receivers including Parker Washington, Keandre Lambert-Smith, and Michael Tinsley (transfer from Western Kentucky). Defensively, the Nittany Lions lost five guys to the NFL Draft along with losing defensive coordinator Brent Prye. Despite the losses, expect a very good defense, especially in the secondary. Overall, look for James Franklin to turn it around and compete with Michigan for the number two spot in the Big Ten East.
14. Oregon Ducks
Projected Record: 9-3
Dan Lanning enters his first season with quite a bit of talent leftover from Mario Cristobal. The offensive line is by far the strength with four strong starters returning. The skill positions and whether Auburn transfer QB Bo Nix can thrive in the Pac-12 are the main questions. Another position of strength is the front seven where Oregon has legitimate defensive lineman and linebacker sprinkled throughout. On defense the secondary will be the question, but getting transfer cornerback Christian Gonzalez from Colorado will help. Overall, do not expect much of a drop off as Oregon is still a legitimate Pac-12 contender.
15. Ole Miss Rebels
Projected Record: 9-3
Ole Miss is coming off a very good season where they finished in the top 10-15 team with a Sugar Bowl appearance. Last season will be tough to repeat after losing Matt Corral. Quarterbacks Jaxon Dart and Luke Altmyer will compete for the starting job. While Ole Miss did lose their starting quarterback, they were aggressive in the portal and pulled Zach Evans and Ulyssess Bentley to make up a great RB room. As for the pass catchers Jonathan Mingo leads the unit with help from Jordan Watkins from Louisville and a high upside TE in Michael Trigg. The offensive line could be improved as well led by Jeremy James at left tackle. The question will be can the defense repeat as an effective unit after finishing in the top 35 last year. The Achilles heel of last year’s team was a poor run defense. JJ Pegues from Auburn will attempt to help as they are playing him at nose tackle. Cedric Johnson will also be a key defensive player on the edge after a solid 6.5 sacks last year. The Rebels should be solid at defensive back again, but linebacker is a major question. Overall, this is a talented team whose success will be dependent on how Dart or Altmyer replaces Matt Corral.
16. Pittsburgh Panthers
Projected Record: 9-3
Coming off an ACC title, Pittsburgh returns 14 starters. However, they are losing first round quarterback Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff award winner WR Jordan Addison. Still, with their entire offensive line coming back and a good replacement in USC transfer QB Kedon Slovis, Pittsburgh is in a good position to repeat as the ACC Coastal champion. This is especially true on defense where they return almost all of their defensive lineman and a solid secondary. Also returning is Habakkuk Baldonado who finished with 9 sacks last year. Overall this is a really good team, but I worry about coach Pat Narduzzi getting too conservative after his Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple left for Nebraska.
17. Texas Longhorns
Projected Record: 9-4
Texas is coming off a disappointing 5-7 season. But there is huge optimism in Steve Sarkisian’s second season. The offense is loaded and has a top five receiving group in the country with Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and Isaiah Neyor. Add in top running back Bijan Robinson and highly ranked QB Quinn Ewers, this offense has a chance to be special. However, offensive line is a huge issue where the Longhorns might have to start two true freshman offensive tackles. Defensively, they were awful last year finishing 100th in total yards per game. The interior defensive line isn’t bad with Keondre Coburn and Alfred Collins, but I do not see any premier pass rushers on the roster. The Longhorns also are weak at linebacker as they’ve been searching the transfer portal all offseason. The secondary remains shaky as well, but Ohio State transfer Ryan Watts will help the improvement. Overall, with an inexperienced offensive line and average defense I don’t see Texas as a college football playoff contender. However, they have enough offense to be in the mix for a Big 12 title.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
Projected Record: 9-3
When Hendon Hooker took over at starting quarterback for the Vols last year, this became a legitimate top ten offense. Expect a similar explosive offense. The offensive line was good last year and now returns four out of the five starters. The key will be filling in the left tackle spot with Darnell Wright moving back to right tackle. The wide receiver room is also solid with Cedric Tillman coming off a 1000 yard season and transfer Bru McCoy could be a wildcard. As for the defense, the Vols unit finished in the top 50 last year. The defense will have some work replacing their top three defensive lineman and try to improve what was an inconsistent pass rush from last year. One guy that will be relied on to be a key rusher is defensive end Byron Young. Another stud on the defense is linebacker Jeremy Banks, but the Vols will need another linebacker to step up (possibly Juwan Mitchell after only playing 3 games last year). This defense needs to improve in the secondary after finishing near the bottom of the SEC in passing yards against. Expect this defense to finish in the middle of the SEC conference. Overall, this is a quality team who has a legitimate shot at finishing second in the SEC East.
19. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected Record: 9-4
The Golden Gophers return a bunch of starters on offense and defense coming off a nine win season. However, the offense needs to improve, especially quarterback Tanner Morgan. Luckily for Minnesota they get back Kurt Ciarrocca at offensive coordinator from their successful 2019 season. Mohamed Ibrahim is also one of the best running backs in the Big Ten back from an Achilles injury, while Chris Autmen-Bell is one of the conference’s top receiver. The defense was a top ten defense last year, but lost a few guys. However, they have enough talent still left to finish on top of the Big Ten West. Overall, expect this to be one of coach PJ Fleck’s most talented teams.
20. Wisconsin Badgers
Projected Record: 9-3
The Badgers had an absolute beast of a defense in 2021. But now they have to replace some key pieces at linebacker and in the secondary. Wisconsin went in the transfer portal to grab three cornerbacks to help out. They have a strong defensive line led by Keanu Benton. But the offense will have to make major improvements this year, led by star running back Braelon Allen, if they want to win the Big Ten West. Overall, expect a strong defense that will most likely be held back by an average offense from being a top team in the nation. However, they still will be the favorite to win the Big Ten West.
21. BYU Cougars
Projected Record: 9-3
BYU returns almost everyone back to what was a 10-3 team last year. The Cougar offense finished in the top 20 in offensive yards per game after a great season by quarterback Jaren Hall. The offense should be fantastic again, but it is defensively where BYU needs to improve. With ten starters coming back expect that to happen. Overall, BYU is very talented and will give the premier teams on their schedule trouble (Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Arkansas).
22. Kentucky Wildcats
Projected Record: 8-4
Coach Mark Stoops has done a phenomenal job keeping Kentucky a steady 8-9 win team the last few years. Even with the new offensive coordinator, expect this to be your classic run-first team. Specifically behind talented, tough-nose running back Chris Rodriguez. Despite the offensive line losing three starters, the coaching staff seems confident in a few former four star recruits stepping up. What continues to be the concern is at wide receiver. Virginita Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson from Virginia Tech will be the top guy, but the complimentary pieces are unknown. Last but not least, quarterback Will Levis will need to improve his efficiency. He has all the tools with even a few publications projecting him as a first round NFL pick. Defensively, there are a few concerns including the defensive line and defensive back. Specifically at cornerback, someone needs to step up other than Carrington Valentine. The strength is Justin Rogers on the defensive line and the outside linebacker unit. Overall, this seems like another classic Kentucky team reliant on the run game and decent defense. But hopes of the SEC East title are too ambitious.
23. LSU Tigers
Projected Record: 8-4
Brian Kelly enters his first year as LSU’s head coach. The LSU team will look different from last year with only around six starters returning. The strength on offense is at the wide receiver position especially with one of the best in the nation, Kayshon Boutte. With very little tight end depth, expect LSU’s offense this year to go with more four wide receiver sets. Who is throwing the ball to the receivers is a major question going into the season with a three quarterback battle brewing between Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels, Garrett Nussmeier, and Myles Brennan. The offensive line is also a concern as the Tigers lost all four of their snap count guys from last year. On the other hand, the defense has a chance to be solid with a talented defensive line that features Jaquelin Roy and Mason Smith. The edge is also a position of strength with rushers Ali Gaye and Ben Ojulari. A key position on the defensive side of the ball is defensive back where they lost 4 out of their five top defensive backs. LSU brought in four defensive back transfers including Arkansas transfers Joe Foucha and Greg Brooks to help the back end. Overall, LSU is still a talented team. But the questions at quarterback, offensive line and defensive back keeps them in the middle of the pack of the SEC West.
24. Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected Record: 8-4
The Razorbacks are coming off an excellent 9-4 season. There is a reason for excitement in Fayetteville as the starting quarterback KJ Jefferson returns after a quality season. Also retuning is the entire offensive line. The skill positions took a hit trying to replace first round pick Treylon Burks. But Oklahoma transfer Jaden Haselwood and breakout candidate Ketron Jackson will help at wideout. Look for Dominic Johnson to be the premier running back in the offense coming off a 500 yard season. Expect him to have an even bigger season as this offense likes to focus on establishing the run game. On defense the Razorbacks will be playing a 3-2-6 base. The defense had some key losses including losing their top three defensive lineman and two impact linebackers from last year. While the defensive line remains a concern, the same can’t be said at linebacker with Bumper Pool and Alabama transfer Drew Sanders starting. The secondary is scattered with new talent including Latavious Brini from Georgia at safety and Dwight McGlothern from LSU at cornerback. Jalen Catalon also returns at safety after a disappointing year following a 2020 first team SEC season. Overall, this should be your classic, hard-nosed, Sam Pittman team that focuses on running the ball and good defense. Expect a pesky team in the SEC West.
25. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Record: 8-4
The Hawkeyes are coming off a 10-4 season despite having an absolute terrible offense (ranked 94th). Iowa needs Spencer Petras to improve if they want to compete at the top of the Big Ten West. Defensively, the group brings eight starters back to a talented group from last year. The linebackers are all back including Jack Campbell. Overall, Iowa will be a tough out, but the lack of offense puts a cap on their ceiling.
Wins: Oregon, Samford, South Carolina, Kent State, Missouri, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Losses: Alabama (SEC Championship)
Georgia is back after their 2021 national championship win. However, the Bulldogs lost a ton on the defensive side. They still have plenty of talent to star on this team including one of the best defensive lineman in the country Jalen Carter. Nolan smith and Rober Beal also return as the starting pass rushers. The concern remains at inside linebacker as they lost three guys who were all drafted in the first three rounds. Also there is a question on who starts opposite of star cornerback Kellen Ringo. On offense, returning quarterback Stetson Bennett is efficient. But he struggled against elite defenses by often turning the ball over and is the least talented starter on offense. Georgia’s skill positions are deep with studs including Adonis Mitchell and Arian Smith at wideout. Georgia also has by far the deepest, most talented tight end room with Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert, and Darnell Washington. The offensive line is also one of the best in the nation. Overall, this has a team with enough talent to make the college football playoffs again. But replacing that much defensive talent to the NFL won’t be easy and may lead to an early College Football Playoff exit.
When Hendon Hooker took over at starting quarterback for the Vols last year, this became a legitimate top ten offense. Expect a similar explosive offense. The offensive line was good last year and now returns four out of the five starters. The key will be filling in the left tackle spot with Darnell Wright moving back to right tackle. The wide receiver room is also solid with Cedric Tillman coming off a 1000 yard season and transfer Bru McCoy could be a wildcard. As for the defense, the Vols unit finished in the top 50 last year. The defense will have some work replacing their top three defensive lineman and try to improve what was an inconsistent pass rush from last year. One guy that will be relied on to be a key rusher is defensive end Byron Young. Another stud on the defense is linebacker Jeremy Banks, but the Vols will need another linebacker to step up (possibly Juwan Mitchell after only playing 3 games last year). This defense needs to improve in the secondary after finishing near the bottom of the SEC in passing yards against. Expect this defense to finish in the middle of the SEC conference. Overall, this is a quality team who has a legitimate shot at finishing second in the SEC East.
3. Kentucky Wildcats
Projected Record: 8-4
Wins: Miami (Ohio), Youngstown State, Northern Illinois, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Louisville
Losses: Florida, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Georgia
Coach Mark Stoops has done a phenomenal job keeping Kentucky a steady 8-9 win team the last few years. Even with the new offensive coordinator, expect this to be your classic run-first team. Specifically behind talented, tough-nose running back Chris Rodriguez. Despite the offensive line losing three starters, the coaching staff seems confident in a few former four star recruits stepping up. What continues to be the concern is at wide receiver. Virginita Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson from Virginia Tech will be the top guy, but the complimentary pieces are unknown. Last but not least, quarterback Will Levis will need to improve his efficiency. He has all the tools with even a few publications projecting him as a first round NFL pick. Defensively, there are a few concerns including the defensive line and defensive back. Specifically at cornerback, someone needs to step up other than Carrington Valentine. The strength is Justin Rogers on the defensive line and the outside linebacker unit. Overall, this seems like another classic Kentucky team reliant on the run game and decent defense. But hopes of the SEC East title are too ambitious.
4. Florida Gators
Projected Record: 7-5
Wins: Kentucky, South Florida, Eastern Washington, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Florida State
Losses:Utah, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia, Texas A&M
Coach Billy Napier takes over for Dan Mullen after a disappointing season for the Gators. However, the season wasn’t a total loss as there were glimpses of stardom from quarterback Anthony Richardson. He has all the tools to make Florida a tough team in the SEC East. The offense has major issues though as the wide receiver position is unproven. Florida hopes Justin Shorter can be the guy to step up at WR. The offensive line will need to step forward from last year for this offense to reach its potential. Transfer offensive lineman Ocyrus Torrence will help after finishing last year as a first team All-Sun Belt. On defense, Gervon Dexter is the stud that leads the defensive line. But the defensive depth is incredibly thin especially at linebacker, safety and defensive tackle. The strength of this team is at defensive back especially after Jalen Kimber transferred from Georgia. Overall, this team has some talent but the lack of depth is a major concern. Expect just an OK first year from the Gators.
Shane Beamer comes into his second year after vastly exceeding expectations in year one. The bar just got set higher after acquiring a few transfer portal guys including Spencer Rattler. Helping out Rattler will be a few decent receivers (Josh Vann and Arkansas State transfer Corey Rucker) and a tight end room with Jaheim Bell and his former Oklahoma TE Austin Stogner. The running back room is also talented with Wake Forest transfer Christian Beal-Smith and Marshawn Lloyd. The offensive line is experienced, but will have to take a step forward after a down year last year. On defense, the Gamecocks are led by their secondary and in particular Cam Smith, who will move to nickel this year. The front seven will be OK, but Jordan Burch will have to fill the hole left by Kingsley Engbare on the defensive line. Overall, expect the Gamecocks to make a small step towards being a solid team in the SEC East.
6. Missouri Tigers
Projected Record: 4-8
Wins: Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State
Missouri struck out in the transfer portal filling the quarterback position. Now it will turn to returning backup and bowl game starter Brady cook at QB. However, this is a team that is very excited about their wide receiver room with star freshman Luther Burden, Mookie Cooper, and leading receiver from last year Tauskie Dove. Where this team needs to focus on is stopping the run after finishing 126th in the nation last year. Jayden Jernigan from Oklahoma state may help, but it needs to be a point of emphasis if this team will find any success. The secondary is solid returning four starters including Ennis Rakestraw returning from an ACL injury. Overall, this is a decent team, but a lack of a true starting quarterback and weakness against the run could keep them near the bottom of the SEC.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
Projected Record: 3-9
Wins: Hawaii, Elon, Northern Illinois
Losses: Wake Forest, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee
Vanderbilt remains a huge work in progress. The offensive line continues to be a huge issue and in the SEC that isn’t a good thing. As for quarterback look for Mike Wright to take over for Ken Sells as the starting quarterback. There also a few guys who could step up at receiver including Will Sheppard and true freshman Jayden McGowan. Again, the main question offensively is if this line can be competent in the SEC. On the defensive side, the Commodores returns a decent amount of starters. Add in a few transfers including UConn transfer CB Jeremy Lucien and Clemson transfer LB Kane Patterson, and this defense should improve from last in the SEC last year. Overall, Vanderbilt is focusing on high school development and recruiting. With it only being Clark Lea’s second year as head coach, expect something similar to Vanderbilt’s 0-8 SEC record last year.
Heisman trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young leads a very talented Alabama team. However, this year’s team may be led more by their defense. The strength is at edge rusher where Will Anderson, Dallas Turner, and Chris Braswell are all dangerous. The Crimson Tide still has strong units outside of this on the defense including secondary, linebacker and defensive line. As for the offense, transfer wide receivers Jermaine Burton, Tyler Harrell, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs will all step in and be major contributors. The major question mark and weakness of this team is at offensive tackle after Evan Neal was drafted in the top ten. Expect transfer offensive tackle Tyler Steen to fill in at left tackle, but right tackle remains wide open. Regardless, expect one of the better Nick Saban teams this year with the expectation being an appearance in the National Title.
2. Texas A&M Aggies
Projected Record: 10-2
Wins: Sam Houston, Appalachian State, Miami, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, UMass, LSU
Losses: Alabama, South Carolina
Texas A&M comes into the year with the overall number one recruiting class and a loaded roster. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball where they finished in the top ten last year. The secondary returns almost anybody including talented corner Jaylon Jones and safety Antonio Johnson. The question on that side of the ball is who steps up at defensive line after losing their top four guys off last year’s team? Lucky for the Aggies they have six five star freshman coming in and talented returning guys in Tunmise Adeleye, and McKinley Jackson. As for the offense, the Aggies have wide receivers ready to step in, but the best of the bunch might be true freshman Evan Stewart. Expect the offensive line to also be a solid, deep unit. There is one major question keeping this football team from reaching their potential… quarterback. The Aggies need Max Johnson, Haynes King, or Connor Weigman to step up if they want a chance at the SEC West or even the playoff. My gut tells me they’re not going to get that type of production and they’ll drop a few games during SEC play.
3. Ole Miss Rebels
Projected Record: 9-3
Wins: Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Tulsa, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State
Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas
Ole Miss is coming off a very good season where they finished in the top 10-15 team with a Sugar Bowl appearance. Last season will be tough to repeat after losing Matt Corral. Quarterbacks Jaxon Dart and Luke Altmyer will compete for the starting job. While Ole Miss did lose their starting quarterback, they were aggressive in the portal and pulled Zach Evans and Ulyssess Bentley to make up a great RB room. As for the pass catchers Mingo leads the unit with help from Watkins from Louisville and a high upside TE in Michael Trigg. The offensive line could be improved as well led by Jeremy James at left tackle. The question will be can the defense repeat as an effective unit after finishing in the top 35 last year. The Achilles heel of last year’s team was a poor run defense. JJ Pegues from Auburn will attempt to help as they are playing him at nose tackle. Cedric Johnson will also be a key defensive player on the edge after a solid 6.5 sacks last year. The Rebels should be solid at defensive back again, but linebacker is a major question. Overall, this is a talented team whose success will be dependent on how Dart or Altmyer replaces Matt Corral.
4. LSU Tigers
Projected Record: 8-4
Wins: Florida State, Southern, Mississippi State, New Mexico, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, UAB
Losses: Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, Texas A&M
Brian Kelly enters his first year as LSU’s head coach. The LSU team will look different from last year with only around six starters returning. The strength on offense is at the wide receiver position especially with one of the best in the nation, Kayshon Boutte. With very little tight end depth, expect LSU’s offense this year to go with more four wide receiver sets. Who is throwing the ball to the receivers is a major question going into the season with a three quarterback battle brewing between Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels, Garrett Nussmeier, and Myles Brennan. The offensive line is also a concern as the Tigers lost all four of their snap count guys from last year. On the other hand, the defense has a chance to be solid with a talented defensive line that features Jaquelin Roy and Mason Smith. The edge is also a position of strength with rushers Ali Gaye and Ben Ojulari. A key position on the defensive side of the ball is defensive back where they lost 4 out of their five top defensive backs. LSU brought in four defensive back transfers including Arkansas transfers Joe Foucha and Greg Brooks to help the back end. Overall, LSU is still a talented team. But the questions at quarterback, offensive line and defensive back keeps them in the middle of the pack of the SEC West.
5. Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected Record: 8-4
Wins: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Missouri State, Mississippi State, BYU, Liberty, Ole Miss, Missouri
Losses: Texas A&M, Alabama, Auburn, LSU
The Razorbacks are coming off an excellent 9-4 season. There is a reason for excitement in Fayetteville as the starting quarterback KJ Jefferson returns after a quality season. Also retuning is the entire offensive line. The skill positions took a hit trying to replace first round pick Treylon Burks. But Oklahoma transfer Jaden Haselwood and breakout candidate Ketron Jackson will help at wideout. Look for Dominic Johnson to be the premier running back in the offense coming off a 500 yard season. Expect him to have an even bigger season as this offense likes to focus on establishing the run game. On defense the Razorbacks will be playing a 3-2-6 base. The defense had some key losses including losing their top three defensive lineman and two impact linebackers from last year. While the defensive line remains a concern, the same can’t be said at linebacker with Bumper Pool and Alabama transfer Drew Sanders starting. The secondary is scattered with new talent including Latavious Brini from Georgia at safety and Dwight McGlothern from LSU at cornerback. Jalen Catalon also returns at safety after a disappointing year following a 2020 first team SEC season. Overall, this should be your classic, hard-nosed, Sam Pittman team that focuses on running the ball and good defense. Expect a pesky team in the SEC West.
6. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Projected Record: 6-6
Wins: Memphis, Arizona, Bowling Green, Kentucky, Auburn, East Tennessee State
Losses: LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss
Quarterback Will Rogers leads the Bulldogs back after a 7-6 season. The offensive line remains a concern as they are faced with replacing both starting tackles. The Bulldogs also must find a wide receiver to replace former wide receiver Makai Polk’s 1046 yards. Mike Leach has his work cut out after finishing 59th in scoring offense last year. The strength of this team actually is on the defensive end with a loaded front seven. The secondary is led by Emmanuel Forbes at corner. Richardson and Marcus Banks, a transfer from Alabama complete a decent cornerback room. Overall, Mississippi State is a solid team, but faces a tough uphill battle in the SEC West.
7. Auburn Tigers
Projected Record: 5-7
Wins: Mercer, San Jose State, Missouri, Arkansas, Western Kentucky
Losses: Penn State, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Alabama
Auburn had an eventful offseason that ended with the administration bringing back Coach Bryan Harsin for a second season. It won’t be any easier this year. For one, the Tigers still have to decide who is the starter between Zach Calzada, TJ Finley or Robby Ashford. The offensive line returns most of the starters from last year, but needs to make an improvement. On the offensive side it is Tank Bigsby at running back who will have to lead the offense as the receivers are unproven. The strength of this team is on the defensive line led by (Wooden, Marquis Harris, Northwestern transfer, Hollis). Overall, Auburn is one of the least talented teams in the SEC West and face a difficult schedule. Expect Auburn to be a fringe bowl team.
Thank God It's Saturday 