Category Archives: College Football

Week 11 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 62-56

Week 10 Game of the Week

#2 LSU vs #3 Alabama (-6) OVER 62.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: Last week was the battle for the SEC East… this is a battle for the SEC West with an almost guaranteed playoff spot on the line. Alabama’s offense will be LSU’s defense biggest challenge of the season. They’ve struggled this year and as long as Tua is healthy the points will come. The biggest matchup will be LSU’s offense vs. Alabama’s defense. This isn’t the same units from last year. Alabama’s secondary is underrated and they will challenge Joe Burrow. That doesn’t mean there won’t be points. Expect a lot of them with Bama winning a high scoring matchup.

Pick: Alabama 41-31

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Temple (-1) at USF – Thursday 7:00pm

An almost pick’em game that I don’t think should be. Temple is better than USF.

UCF at Tulsa (+17)– Friday 6:00pm

My two theories last week were Tulsa plays teams close and UCF hasn’t been blowing out teams out as much as years past… When my theories collide I have to go with it, I’m a man of principle.

#12 Baylor at TCU (+2.5) – Saturday 11:00am

If you’ve been following TGIS you know I think Baylor is under ranked. That doesn’t mean I think they are a great football team that is going undefeated though. Baylor loses this weekend for the first time.

Western Kentucky at Arkansas (-1) – Saturday 11:00am

Arkansas in a pick’em game against a 5-4 Conference USA team… think new QB John Stephen Jones gives the Hogs a spark and the win.

Purdue at Northwestern UNDER 39 – Saturday 11:00am

Purdue is on its fourth string QB who is a Sophomore walk-on. Northwestern has averaged 4 points per game over its last 4 games. This game may end 6-3. No way they get 39 points.

Stanford (-3) at Colorado – Saturday 2:00pm

Basically Colorado is not a good football team and Stanford is starting to turn it around. Also, Colorado’s best player Laviska Shenault has been hampered by injury for most of the season. Stanford wins by 10.

#16 Kansas State (+7) at Texas OVER 57.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Seven points is way too much in a pick’em game and 57.5 points is not enough. This is a Texas team that was in a 50-48 game against Kansas at home. Texas wins a close shootout.

Appalachian State at South Carolina (-5) – Saturday 6:00pm

App State undefeated season was ended and now must go to Columbia to face the Gamecocks. For a team that beat Georgia and played a close game with Florida, 5 points is not enough. Cocks by double digits.

San Jose State (+8) at Hawaii – Saturday 10:00pm

This isn’t last years San Jose State Spartans. These Spartans are decent. They’ve played Boise State and San Diego State tough and even beat Army. Surely they can cover over a touchdown spread against Hawaii on the island.

College Football Playoff Rankings Projected Top 25

The rankings come out Tuesday night and it will be the first chance to see the Playoff Committee’s thoughts. A common theme we’ve seen from the committee  previously is a term I refer to as anchoring. Below is “anchoring” defined and the rankings.

Anchoring– Head-to-head will be the determining factor between two teams with the same amount of losses. The winner of the head-to-head matchup will not drop below the losers ranking. Most of the AP Top 25 voters have not figured this out yet. Below are the teams guaranteed to be ranked over the loser in their head-to-head matchup:

  • Florida over Auburn
  • Wisconsin over Michigan
  • Michigan over Iowa
  • Michigan over Notre Dame
  • Memphis over SMU
  • Memphis over Navy
  • Texas over Oklahoma State

THE RANKINGS:

1. LSU Tigers

Record: 8-0

LSU Tigers

LSU has by far the best resume with wins over #11 Florida, #12 Auburn, and #24 Texas. They have also looked dominant against inferior opponents which is key for the eye test. LSU will be named #1 Tuesday night.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 8-0

780px-Ohio_State_Buckeyes_logo.svg

Ohio State has dominated everyone they’ve played. What gives them the edge over Alabama is the win against #14 Wisconsin. Alabama does not have a win like that on their resume.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 8-0

Alabama logo

As previously stated, the Tide have blown out everyone. Sure, the strength of schedule is not great, but dominant wins puts them at #3.

4. Clemson Tigers

Record: 9-0

orange

Clemson has killed everyone on their schedule… except for a one point win against North Carolina which is why Clemson is number 4. There is no argument for Clemson above Alabama. Both have had weak schedules, but only one team has a single digit victory. When you’re talking about the top teams you have to nit-pick.

5. Penn State (8-0)

Penn State has more high quality wins than Clemson beating #15 Michigan and #18 Iowa. Where Clemson has the slight edge is Penn State has had some games where they don’t look great  (17-10 win against Pitt). The eye test keeps Clemson slightly above.

6. Georgia (7-1)

Blowouts and a win against #11 Florida have Georgia easily settled as the top 1 loss team.

7. Baylor (8-0)

The Bears have been impressive playing most of the Big 12 and still undefeated. Baylor even has a few quality wins against #16 Kansas State and fringe top 25 team Iowa State. However, very close wins against bad teams like West Virginia and a weak non-conference of Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, and Rice weaken the resume.

8. Oklahoma (7-1)

The Sooners have been dominant except for a close loss to #16 Kansas State, a team Baylor beat 31-12. This keeps them behind undefeated Baylor.

9. Oregon (8-1)

Baylor’s weakness is Oregon’s strength in terms of non-conference schedule. Oregon has a close loss to #12 Auburn, but have gone unbeaten in Pac-12 wins. If they were more dominant against inferior opponents, the Ducks would be ranked higher.

10. Utah (8-1)

Utah is a solid team with just one slip up this year with a 30-23 loss to USC.

11. Florida (7-2)

Florida has a quality win against #12 Auburn and forgivable losses against #1 LSU and #6 Georgia. Other than these games Florida has proven to be a solid football team.

12. Auburn (7-2)

A high quality non-conference win against #9 Oregon, but they’re anchored behind Florida due to the head-to-head loss. A 3 point loss to #1 LSU shouldn’t hurt them.

13. Minnesota (8-0)

They beat non-conference opponents South Dakota State, Fresno State, and Georgia Southern by a TOTAL of 13 points. Their strength of schedule is abysmal.

14. Wisconsin (6-2)

The Badgers have struggled recently, but still have the head-to-head against Michigan.

15. Michigan (7-2)

Quality wins against #18 Iowa and #19 Notre Dame with understandable losses against #5 Penn State and #14 Wisconsin. Overall have a solid strength of schedule.

16. Kansas State (6-2)

The big win against a very good #8 Oklahoma team has them here.

17. Wake Forest (7-1)

Wake Forest may have a great record, but they really haven’t played anyone and play down to their weak competition. The 62-59 loss to Louisville is not great.

18. Iowa (6-2)

Their best win is against Iowa State. At least the close losses to #5 Penn State and #15 Michigan are impressive.

19. Notre Dame (6-2)

The Irish over the last three games were demolished by Michigan 45-14 and squeaked out close wins against USC and Virginia Tech. They have a pretty average resume.

20. Cincinnati (7-1)

Their one loss is to #2 Ohio State… it wasn’t close though.

21. Memphis (8-1)

Have a Power Five win against Ole Miss. Still not sure how they lost to Temple though.

22. SMU (8-1)

The win against TCU keeps them in the top 25.

23. Boise State (7-1)

The win against Florida State doesn’t look as impressive anymore.

24. Texas (5-3)

Texas will benefit in the rankings with their tough non-conference game against #1 LSU.

25. Navy (7-1)

They’ve blown out some of their AAC opponents, but the loss against Memphis anchors them.

Week 10 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 55-52

Week 10 Game of the Week

#8 Georgia vs #6 Florida (+6.5) – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: The battle for the SEC East. The winner takes a two game lead and a 95% chance of winning the division. Florida has looked like the better team all year. Their defense is very good and Kyle Trask has command of the offense. Meanwhile, Georgia’s offense has looked lethargic and lack game breakers at receiver. Florida wins this game and the SEC East outright.

Pick: Florida 21-17

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

West Virginia (+19) at #12 Baylor Under 57.5 – Thursday 7:00pm

I think Baylor is a good football team, but covering that many points on a Thursday night is tough. As for the under, West Virginia has scored 14 points the last two weeks against defenses not as good as Baylor’s. Think 31-14 sounds about the right score where both win. One of these are guaranteed to hit.

#14 Michigan (-19) at Maryland – Saturday 11:00am

Michigan is getting hot at the right time and Maryland is bad at the wrong time. Maryland has lost to Purdue by 36 and Minnesota by 42 this month. Michigan should cover easily.

UTSA (+38.5) at Texas A&M – Saturday 11:00am

A&M beat Texas State by 34 at the start of the year, think 38.5 will be too many points for them to cover against UTSA. That’s it. That’s my logic.

Houston (+23) at UCF – Saturday 11:00am

Houston kept it close against SMU and I think they can do the same against UCF. Houston hasn’t been beaten by over 20 points all season. I know they don’t have D’Eriq King, but it still isn’t a bad football team. Meanwhile, UCF’s Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has been a little inconsistent. This spread is too damn high!

TCU at Oklahoma State OVER 59 – Saturday 2:30pm

Oklahoma State loves scoring points and not playing defense. TCU can score as well with Freshman QB Max Duggan settling in as the starter. Lots of points.

#9 Utah at Washington UNDER 47.5 – Saturday 3:00pm

Utah has given up a TOTAL of 23 points over their last four games. Utah will slow Washington’s offense down and the under will hit.

Mississippi State at Arkansas UNDER 58.5 – Saturday 3:00pm

I don’t know why this point total is so high. Arkansas and Mississippi State both struggle on offense. Mississippi State doesn’t have an awful defense either. Expect a low scoring ugly game.

Tulsa (+10.5) at Tulane – Saturday 3:00pm

Tulsa has lost by 1 point to #24 Memphis, 11 points to #17 Cincinnati, and 6 points in OT to #15 SMU. Tulsa likes to keep things close! Tulane on the other hand has lost two in a row. Tulsa covers and maybe even wins in New Orleans. Money line sprinkle!

#15 SMU (+6.5) at #24 Memphis – Saturday 6:30pm

SMU is the best of the Group of 5 and getting points against an inconsistent Memphis team. Almost a touchdown spread in what should be a pick’em game is too good to pass up. Take SMU.

Week 9 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 51-44

Week 9 Game(s) of the Week

#13 Wisconsin (+14.5) at #3 Ohio State – Saturday 11:00am

Game Preview: Wisconsin was embarrassed at Illinois losing as a 31 point favorite after being dominant through the first seven weeks. This doesn’t mean Wisconsin is a bad team though. While Ohio State has been dominant, they have been dominant against nobodies. Wisconsin has been dominant against the same terrible teams. While I don’t think Wisconsin will win, they will keep it close enough

Pick: Ohio State 34-21

#9 Auburn (+10.5)  at #2 LSU  – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: I’ve flipped back and forth on this one… but you still CAN’T TRUST BO NIX. The Auburn offense doesn’t have enough fire power to keep up with LSU. LSU by two touchdowns.

Pick: LSU 38-28

#8 Notre Dame at #19 Michigan (+1) – Saturday 6:30pm

Game Preview: Is Notre Dame actually good? We were all impressed when they stuck with Georgia and only lost by seven points, but Georgia is not the Georgia we thought. Michigan meanwhile is improving. The offense is coming along and will make this close. Wolverines by a point.

Pick: Michigan 21-20

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Miami at Pittsburgh OVER 43.5 – Saturday 11:00pm

Miami games have been unpredictable. Pittsburgh showed the ability to score against Syracuse last week so I like the over.

#6 Penn State (-6) at Michigan State – Saturday 2:30pm

People are overrating Michigan State as a good football team. They’re not. Penn State is and should win by double digits.

#15 Texas (-1.5) at TCU OVER 59 – Saturday 2:30pm

I know Texas is banged up on defense… but come on. Only getting a point and a half against TCU is way too low. TCU has lost three out of the last four and should not be almost a pick’em against the Longhorns.

Maryland (+16.5) at Minnesota – Saturday 2:30pm

Minnesota has been impressive and Maryland has struggled. So why am I taking Maryland? 16.5 is way too many points for a mid to bottom level Big Ten game.

South Carolina (-4.5) at Tennessee – Saturday 3:00pm

South Carolina has played Florida and Georgia tough over the past two weeks and even beating Georgia. Tennessee is not at the same level as the Gamecocks and will lose by a touchdown or more.

Texas Tech (-4) at Kansas – Saturday 7:00pm

Kansas is still Kansas. So we are taking Texas Tech.

Cal at #12 Utah OVER 37.5 – Saturday 9:00pm

Utah have averaged over 37 points by themselves in the past three games. Cal should be at least able to help by scoring a little bit… Over hits.

Washington State at #11 Oregon (-14) – Saturday 9:30pm

I probably shouldn’t bet this given Oregon’s inconsistency. But Oregon is too talented not to blow out the Cougs at home. Oregon wins big.

Week 8 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 46-38

Week 8 Game of the Week

#16 Michigan (+9.5) at #7 Penn State – Saturday 6:30pm

Game Preview: Michigan travels to Happy Valley to try and keep their Big Ten hopes alive. A loss would put them two games behind both Penn State and Ohio State. Both of these teams have good defenses, but struggle offensively. Expect a low scoring game and what I think will be a Michigan upset. Sprinkle that moneyline.

Pick: Michigan 21-20

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

#4 Ohio State (-27) at Northwestern – Friday 7:30pm

Ohio State is blowing out everyone in the Big Ten right now and Northwestern is near the bottom of it. Northwestern flat out can’t score. 28 points is not nearly a high enough spread. Ohio State wins big.

#9 Florida (-5) at South Carolina – Saturday 11:00am

South Carolina had a great win over Georgia, but the game was more Georgia losing than South Carolina winning it. The Gamecocks have improved since QB Ryan Hillinski, but he will be playing Saturday with a knee injury. 5 points is not enough against a legitimate top ten Florida team.

West Virginia (+33.5) at #5 Oklahoma – Saturday 11:00am

Coming off a big win against Texas watch out for a let down. No Oklahoma won’t lose, but 33.5 points is a lot. Remember Oklahoma didn’t cover a similar spread against Kansas. Oklahoma wins 48-20.

Oregon State (+11.5) at Cal – Saturday 1:30pm

I’m putting my faith in backup Cal QB Devon Modster (being bad). Modster is 23/49 229 yards 1 TD 3 INTs on the season. Oregon State has played some teams tough in the Pac-12 and should cover. They might even win which means MONEYLINE SPRINKLE.

#2 LSU (-18.5) at Mississippi State OVER 61 – Saturday 2:30pm

LSU overs never disappoint and have been easy money all year. As for the line, Mississippi State is bad. They are not good on offense and they are not good on defense. In conclusion, this line is too low… LSU by 30.

#18 Baylor at Oklahoma State UNDER 68.5 – Saturday 3:00pm

Just like LSU overs have killed it this year, Baylor Unders have done just as well. The under has hit three of the last four weeks, the one exception being the Baylor/Texas Tech 2OT game. Oklahoma State has a good offense, but the Baylor defense has been impressive.

Rice (-4) at UTSA – Saturday 3:00pm

Rice is the greatest 0-6 team of all time. Rice played Baylor tough and only lost by 8 points. UTSA lost 63-14 to the same Baylor team. Transitive property mean Rice wins by a touchdown or more.

Kansas at #15 Texas (-21) – Saturday 6:00pm

The line is too low. TCU and Oklahoma beat Kansas by 37 and 25 points. Fully trust Texas to be able to cover 22 points at home.

#14 Boise State (-6.5) at BYU – Saturday 9:15pm

It has been a long time since BYU has beat Tenessee and USC. Since then, the Cougars have just not been good. This includes losing to a very bad South Florida team. Boise State should be ready to play and be able to win by a touchdown or more.

Week 7 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 38-34

Week 7 Game(s) of the Week

#7 Florida (+13.5) at #5 LSU OVER 54.5 – Saturday 7:00pm

Game Preview: Florida just keeps on winning. There hasn’t been much of a drop off since QB Feleipe Franks was injured, in fact the offense may have gotten better. The Florida defense faces their biggest test with LSU’s new explosive offense. Joe Burrow is no Bo Nix. Look for LSU to win a tight, higher scoring game.

Pick: LSU 35-24

#11 Texas (+11) vs. #6 Oklahoma UNDER 75 – Saturday 11:00am

Game Preview: Red River Showdown. Jalen Hurts. Sam Ehlinger. If Texas wants to keep this close the challenge will be stopping Hurts. An underrated factor in this game has been the improved Oklahoma defense. Over the last 4 games the Sooners have not gave up more than 20 points.

I like the Sooners in a closer game…The line is too big for this rivalry game and 75 points is way too many for an Over/Under.

Pick: Oklahoma 38-31

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

#20 Virginia (+2.5) at Miami – Friday 7:00pm

How do you trust Miami right now? They are 2-3, lost to a bad Virginia Tech team, and struggled with a bad Central Michigan team. Putting it simply… Miami is bad. Virginia should win this easily.

Colorado (+21) at #13 Oregon – Friday 9:00pm

Oregon just does not blow out average Pac-12 teams. They only beat Stanford and Cal by 15 and 10 points. Colorado should be able to cover.

#1 Alabama (-17) at #24 Texas A&M OVER 61 – Saturday 2:30pm

Texas A&M struggling with Arkansas puts them on fraud alert. Alabama should score a lot of points, but they won’t shut the Aggies out. Alabama wins 45-24.

Washington State at Arizona State (-1.5) – Saturday 2:30pm

The Cougars are falling apart. Getting the Sun Devils at home as a 1.5 point favorite is a steal.

Michigan State at #8 Wisconsin OVER 40.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Wisconsin can score points. Michigan State’s defense just gave up 31 points to Indiana and will give up around the same to Wisconsin. The Badgers may get the over by themselves. Take the over.

Iowa State at West Virginia (+10) – Saturday 3:00pm

So Texas was favored by 11 at West Virginia and Iowa State is favored by 10? Iowa State isn’t great and the Mountaineers are capable of covering.

#10 Penn State at #17 Iowa UNDER 41.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Iowa just lost 10-3 to Michigan. The Hawkeye defense should able to hold Penn State’s offense. Meanwhile, Iowa’s offense is not good. This will be your classic low scoring Big Ten game.

 

 

Week 6 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 33-28

Week 6 Game of the Week

#7 Auburn (-3) at #10 Florida UNDER 48.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: Bo Nix finally looked like a decent quarterback last week, but can he do it against a good defense? In fact, both of these defenses are great. It will be a low scoring slugfest. A lot of people are thinking Auburn blows out Florida, I don’t. Auburn wins a close defensive battle.

Pick: Auburn 20-14

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

#18 UCF at Cincinnati (+4) – Friday 7:00pm

Friday night in Cincinnati and their field will be looking like this..

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How do you bet against that? Also, I honestly believe Cincinnati is a better team than UCF. The Bearcats offense has picked up fire scoring 35 and 52 the last two weeks. Friday night, black field, and four points? Bearcats cover/win.

#21 Oklahoma State (-10) at Texas Tech – Saturday 11:00am

Texas Tech is an awful team without their starting QB Alan Bowman. They can’t move the ball and don’t have much of a defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is a solid top 20 team. Blowout win Cowboys.

#6 Oklahoma (-31.5) at Kansas – Saturday 11:00am

This line is too low! The Sooners offense is blowing Big 12 defenses away and Kansas is one of the worst of them. The Sooners defense is also better… expect this to be a 59-17 type game.

Maryland (-12) at Rutgers – Saturday 11:00pm

I can’t quit Maryland. Especially when you tempt me with a 12 point line to a terrible Rutgers team that just fired their coach. I keep thinking of Maryland blowing out Syracuse by almost 40 points. If Maryland doesn’t cover this they will be finally on my DONEZO list.

#11 Texas (-11) at West Virginia – Saturday 2:30pm

Only 11 points? I get the game is at West Virginia, but West Virginia is terrible. They only beat Kansas by 5 and lost to Missouri by 31. Meanwhile, Texas is obviously a very good team that can score. Longhorns should win big.

Illinois (+14) at Minnesota – Saturday 2:30pm

Minnesota has won games by 3, 3, and 7 points. Illinois has lost one game by 3 points. Both teams have faced similar opponents. I’m not a math major, but that sounds like a cover.

Baylor at Kansas State UNDER 51 – Saturday 2:30pm

Baylor hasn’t scored more than 23 points the past few weeks and Kansas State only scored 13 points against a below average Oklahoma State defense. This will be a low scoring game.

Arizona at Colorado (-4) – Saturday 3:30pm

QB Khalil Tate and RB JJ Taylor are questionable for Arizona. Colorado is a veteran team coming off a big win against a good Arizona State team. Buffs cover at home.

Rice (+9.5) at UAB – Saturday 6:00pm

I’m on the Rice as an underdog train. Rice should’ve beat Louisiana Tech last week as a 10 point underdog. Instead, they lost by 3 points in OT. Rice is the best 0-5 team in the country and I will keep betting them and sprinkling dollars on the moneyline. DON’T TRY TO STOP ME.

Cal at #13 Oregon OVER 46.5 – Saturday 6:00pm

“Cal has a good defense”… it’s honestly just alright. This is me trusting Justin Herbet and the Oregon offensive line to impose their will. There is no reason they shouldn’t score at least 30 points. Oregon’s defense has played well, but also haven’t faced a decent offense since their opener with Auburn. Oregon wins 35-17 and covers the over. (The line is Oregon -17.5 which is a little high for me).

 

 

Week 5 College Football Recap

Clemson Season Almost Ended

Clemson squeaked out a 21-20 win against North Carolina (2-3). If you’ve been following the TGIS posts, you know I’ve mentioned a few times (maybe 100 times) Clemson’s schedule is absolutely awful. If Clemson loses at anytime during the season, their strength of schedule keeps them out of the playoff.

Clemson currently has three teams on their schedule ranked in the top 25. All three are in jeopardy of falling out. Texas A&M has a tough schedule and have not played well. Wake Forest only beat Boston College by three points and have a few more losses left. The ACC Championship will most likely be against Virginia, but after there loss by 15 to Notre Dame I can confidently say they will have a few more losses by December. What this all means is does Clemson make the playoffs with a loss and 0 top 25 wins? Absolutely not. So Clemson must be perfect. I’m a man of fairness. I was hard on UCF’s schedule and close wins. I have to give the same treatment to Clemson.

As far as how Clemson has actually played this year… they have not been an elite team. Trevor Lawrence has been above average at best and you can tell Clemson is replacing all four starters up front. Don’t get me wrong, Clemson is still good… they just have not shown to be an elite top 5 team. Clemson will have time to figure it out as they don’t play a team better than 3-2 until November 16th.

Ohio State is Good, but let’s not OVERREACT

Ohio State demolished Nebraska 48-7 in what was supposed to be a “Big Game.” Ohio State has been unchallenged and impressive, but after this game some called them the best team in the nation. Huge overreaction.

Nebraska is not a good football team and are a product of preseason overhype. Nebraska has proven they are a below average team. They squeaked a four point win in a shootout with a bad Illinois team and already have multiple losses. So should we consider Ohio State a great team? Yes. Should we consider the Buckeyes the best team in the nation after beating a bad Nebraska team? Nope.

SMU is for Real

The AAC team that we should be monitoring to get a New York 6 bid is not UCF… it is SMU. They have blown everyone out except for a close win against TCU. TCU’s performances this year outside of that game points to TCU actually being good and is a legitimate win under SMU’s resume. We will know for sure November 2nd when SMU plays Memphis for a spot in the AAC championship.

Terrible AP Top 25 Ranking of the Week

Clemson dropped to #2 in the rankings, but is that even enough? 18 voters still decided to put Clemson atop their ballots for who knows why. I’d argue right now Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, and Oklahoma all should be ranked above Clemson. To the 18 voters still voting Clemson #1… this is 2019 and not 2018.

MY TOP 25

  1. Alabama
  2. LSU
  3. Ohio State
  4. Georgia
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Clemson
  7. Auburn
  8. Wisconsin
  9. Penn State
  10. Florida
  11. Oregon
  12. Notre Dame
  13. Texas
  14. Iowa
  15. Washington
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. SMU
  18. Boise State
  19. Wake Forest
  20. Utah
  21. Michigan
  22. Virginia
  23. Arizona State
  24. Michigan State
  25. Baylor

Week 5 College Football Preview

2019 SEASON RECORD: 27-22

Week 5 Game of the Week

#21 USC (+10.5) at #17 Washington – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: This game is pending on the health of USC QB Kedon Slovis. USC is coming off a huge win over Utah and I think they keep the momentum going by playing Washington close. I like Washington to win, but USC covers.

Pick: Washington 27-21

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Northwestern at #8 Wisconsin (-24) – Saturday 11:00am

Northwestern can’t score and Wisconsin has given up 14 points in THREE GAMES. No way Northwestern gets into the double digits. Wisconsin has also scored at least 35 points each week. Meaning the closest the score will be is 35-10. Wisconsin covers.

BYU (-1.5) at Toledo – Saturday 11:00am

BYU is battle tested with their tough schedule and a win over USC. Toledo has snuck by Colorado State and lost to Kentucky by 14. BYU wins and covers.

Wake Forest (-6.5) at Boston College UNDER 71 – Saturday 2:30pm

I do not understand this line at all. Never forget Boston College lost to Kansas by double digits. Boston College also isn’t a high scoring team and faces an underrated defense in Wake Forest. Wake Forest beats Boston College 35-17. That’s covering the spread by 12 points and the under by almost 20 points.

#18 Virginia (+12.5) at #10 Notre Dame – Saturday 2:30pm

Notre Dame surprisingly kept it close against Georgia. But Virginia is one of the best teams in the ACC and 12.5 is too many points. Irish win by a touchdown.

Ole Miss at #2 Alabama (-35) – Saturday 2:30pm

Hope you got the line early. Alabama covers.

SMU(-7) at South Florida – Saturday 3:00pm

SMU outplayed TCU and is a very good football team. With former Texas QB Shane Buechele leading, SMU might be the favorite to win the AAC. South Florida on the hand is awful and lost to Georgia Tech. SMU wins BIG.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-4) – Saturday 6:00pm

Oklahoma State is at home and coming off a loss to Texas. Despite the loss, Cowboys are a lot better football team than Kansas State. Pokes bounce back.

Louisiana Tech at Rice (+10) – Saturday 6:00pm

Rice is the best 0-4 team in the country. The Owls have played Army, Wake Forest, and Baylor all tough. I don’t only like Rice to cover, I LOVE them on the money line. Rice wins their first game this weekend.

#5 Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska – Saturday 6:30pm

You get in a close shootout with Illinois, you’re not staying within 20 points of Ohio State. Buckeyes win big and cover again. (Ohio State have been cover kings this year).

Washington State at #19 Utah (-4.5) – Saturday 9:00pm

I know I said I’d quit Utah. But they’re still a good football team. You also have the Cougars coming off a terrible late night loss against UCLA. Utah wins by over a touchdown.

Week 4 College Football Recap

The UCF “Dominance” is Over

IT IS OVER! IT IS FINALLY OVER! We will not have to hear “UCF should be in the Playoffs”. UCF lost to an average 2-2 Pittsburgh team. One of the few decent teams they have had on their schedule the past three years. To commemorate UCF’s last two years of ” Dominance” here are all the teams they have beaten (Only one finished in the top 20):

2017
#10 Auburn 10-4
#21 USF 10-2 (Won Bowl Game by three points against 6-7 Texas Tech)
#25 Memphis 10-3 (Lost Bowl Game to 8-5 Iowa State)
FIU 8-5
Navy 7-6
Temple 7-6
Maryland 4-8
Cincinnati 4-8
UConn 3-9
East Carolina 3-9
Austin Peay (FCS)

2018
#24 Cincinnati 11-2 (Won bowl game by 4 points against 6-7 Virginia Tech)
Temple 8-5
Memphis 8-6
South Florida 7-6
Pitt 7-7
SMU 5-7
FAU 5-7
ECU 3-9
Navy 3-10
UConn 1-11
South Carolina State (FCS)

Seven Teams Above the Rest

Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Those are the elite teams so far this season. Wisconsin joined the discussion when they absolutely crushed Michigan. Wisconsin isn’t flashy, but they play good defense, run the ball, and don’t turn the ball over. It is almost a foregone conclusion it’ll be Ohio State vs. Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship.

And no I didn’t forget Auburn. It was an impressive win against Texas A&M this weekend, but they are not an elite team with Bo Nix. You can’t be elite with a quarterback that completes under 50% of his passes. Bo Nix will have to evolve for Auburn to have a chance as a top team.

One Loss Teams in the Hunt

Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame all have impressive losses and are not out of the playoff race. Oregon and Texas could win-out, win their conference, and be right in prime playoff position. Will they? Probably not, but the opportunity is there.

Trouble in Michigan

I tried to tell you, their defense is not good. The Michigan offense isn’t good either. This is a flat out average Big Ten team in a lot of trouble. Jim Harbaugh is in year 5 and these are all his players. There is no where to point the finger, but at Harbaugh. He has changed Michigan to a constant top 25 team, but they’re not an elite program.  Despite all the recruits and all the hype, Michigan is just an above average Big Ten team.

Terrible AP Top 25 Ranking of the Week

SMU (4-0) Big win over TCU: Unranked

UCF (3-1) Loss to 2-2 Pitt, Win over 1-3 Stanford: #22

Nice job AP… Nice job

MY TOP 25

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. LSU
  4. Georgia
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Ohio State
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Auburn
  9. Florida
  10. Oregon
  11. Texas
  12. Penn State
  13. Notre Dame
  14. Iowa
  15. Virginia
  16. Kansas State
  17. Cal
  18. Washington
  19. USC
  20. Utah
  21. Boise State
  22. Wake Forest
  23. Texas A&M
  24. SMU
  25. Michigan