TGIS Week 1 College Football Preview

OVERALL RECORD: 172-138-3 (55.5%)

2022 SEASON RECORD: 1-2-0 (33.3%)

We finally have a full-lineup of college football games this Saturday (and some sprinkled in on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday). Time for an action packed weekend after a little appetizer in week 0 (one where we finished 1-2). We are leaving that behind us… LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:

Week 1 Games of the Week (All Times CST)

#11 Oregon vs. #3 Georgia (-17) – 2:30pm (Atlanta, GA)

In a “neutral field” game in Atlanta, the Bulldogs are the more talented team. Sure they lost quite a few players on the defensive side of the ball to the NFL draft, but Georgia has the depth to reload. Where they really excel is at the skill positions with a great wide receiver and tight end room which will make it easy to score points. Finally, in a four-year tradition at TGIS, WE DO NOT TRUST BO NIX. Georgia in a blowout.

Pick: Georgia 42-17

#23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas (-6) – 2:30pm

An exciting matchup comes to Fayetteville where the Hogs are less than a touchdown favorite against Cincinnati. Nine players were drafted off of the 2021 Bearcat team including six on the defensive side of the ball. That isn’t easy to replace. Arkansas runs all over Cincinnati in a double digit win.

Pick: Arkansas 31-17

#5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State OVER 59 – 6:30pm

This 17.5 point line is about right. No way I am going to start out the year betting against one of the most talented offenses in the nation (Ohio State if it wasn’t obvious). What I am betting against is that there is a massive improvement from the Buckeyes defense. Notre Dame puts up some points to help with the over.

Pick: Ohio State 45-27

Top Picks of the Week

Penn State (-3.5) at Purdue – Thursday 7:00pm

Purdue lost their two best players off of last year’s team: edge rusher George Karlaftis and WR David Bell. Purdue doesn’t have the talent to replace them, especially at wide receiver. With Penn State’s best unit being in the secondary they will take advantage and force Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell into throwing some bad balls. Penn State is the better team and wins by over a touchdown.

Illinois (+3) at Indiana – Friday 7:00pm

Illinois will run the ball with running back Chase Brown all over a bad Indiana defense. Illinois is the better team and we will gladly take the points.

TCU (-13.5) at Colorado – Friday 9:00pm

Colorado is the worst team in the Pac-12 as they lost a ton of players to the transfer portal. TCU on the other hand has more talent than you’d think. TCU in a blowout.

North Carolina (-1.5) at Appalachian State  – Saturday 11:00am

I wish the Tar Heels looked more impressive against Florida A&M last week. But I’m still trusting my gut. North Carolina as a middle to upper tier ACC team over just an OK App State team.

#13 NC State (-11.5) at East Carolina – Saturday 11:00am

NC State has an awesome defense and one of the best QBs in the country. I consider the Wolf Pack a fringe top ten team and believe they will easily handle the ECU Pirates.

Arizona (+6) at San Diego St. – Saturday 2:30 pm

San Diego State was a super conservative team last year. The fact is they do not blow teams out. Look for Arizona to be much better than last year with QB Jayden De Laura transferring from Washington State. I actually like a moneyline sprinkle on it as well with the Wildcats pulling the upset..

Tulsa (-6.5) at Wyoming – Saturday 2:30 pm

We are starting the year with a “Fade the bottom of the Mountain West” principle (this applies to Wyoming, Hawaii and Nevada as they may be a few of the worst teams in the FBS which was caused by transfers leaving). A Tulsa team led by Senior QB Davis Brin will handle Wyoming just fine.

Texas State (+1) at Nevada – Saturday 4:30 pm

(See Tulsa/Wyoming analysis…. same principle applies).

Georgia State at South Carolina (-12.5) – Saturday 6:30 pm

South Carolina has the Spencer Rattler era starting as less than a two touchdown favorite at home against Georgia State. Georgia State isn’t very good against the pass… look for the Gamecocks to blow them out of the water. Take South Carolina.

Florida State vs. LSU (-3) – Sunday 6:30 pm (New Orleans, LA)

LSU has one of the best receiving groups in the nation and a very good defensive line. LSU is the more talented team that will take advantage of what basically is a home game in New Orleans. LSU by a touchdown.

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