The big question going into this game is whether wide receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney will play. .. or whether Romney will miss out on Oregon like the 2012 election. During BYU’s game against Baylor they showed some vulnerability against the run. Oregon has a good offensive line which can take advantage of the BYU defensive line. I like Oregon to win.
Pick: Oregon 27-21
#13 Miami +5.5 at #24 Texas A&M – 8:00pm
Can Texas A&M get back on track? After a terrible game against Appalachian State where their offense could not move the ball at all, the Aggies now have the Hurricanes coming to College Station. I’m expecting this to be a very close game. Expect Texas A&M to perform much better this week… but I’m still taking Miami. It comes down to trusting Tyler Van Dyke over Texas A&M. We are not locking this one up though due to the wild card that is Texas A&M football right now.
Pick: Miami 21-20
Top Picks of the Week
Air Force -15 at Wyoming – Friday 7:00pm
Air Force just got done absolutely obliterating Colorado 41-10 and rushing for 435 yards. What does Wyoming not do well? Stop the run. Air Force is an underrated team and who I think will end up winning the Mountain West. Air Force wins big.
#1 Georgia -24 at South Carolina – 11:00am
South Carolina’s offensive line has not been good in the first two games of the season. Now they are facing a vicious Georgia defensive front seven. Georgia took their foot off the pedal last week against Samford because Samford head coach Chris Hatcher gave Kirby Smart his first job. The Dawgs won’t be as nice to South Carolina. Georgia wins big.
Purdue at Syracuse (-0) – 11:00am
If you haven’t noticed, new Syracuse offensive coordinator Robert Anae has flipped this offense around with a new offense. Sean Tucker is one of the most underrated running backs in the nation for the Orange… and why I like them to win at home.
Vanderbilt +2.5 at Northern Illinois – 2:30pm
Northern Illinois has beat Eastern Illinois (FCS) by 7 and lost to Tulsa by 3. No way would I pick them to beat Vanderbilt where quarterback Mike Wright has been impressive. Vanderbilt is a competent team that ends up winning this game.
Kansas +10 at Houston – 3:00pm
Houston has played in two straight overtime games where they have scored at least 30 points. Kansas is also coming off a 55-42 OT win where their defense did not play well. I think both teams will be able to score plenty of points with Kansas keeping it close. Take a Lance Leipold coached team to make this a game.
Texas Tech +10.5 at NC State – 6:00pm
NC State plays a very conservative style of play where winning by double digits is unlikely. Plus this is a very scrappy, decent Tech team that will keep it close. Texas Tech covers (maybe even worth a little money line sprinkle).
Michigan State +3.5 at Washington UNDER 57 – 6:30pm
Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard are one of the best running back combos in college football for the Spartans. Michigan State is the much better team and you get 3.5 points. Meanwhile, I’m not trusting the untested Washington offense with Michael Penix at quarterback. This is going to be a low scoring Michigan State win.
It feels like College Football just kicked off yesterday and here we are already entering Week 3. We had our first major upset of the year as Texas A&M loses at home to an unranked Appalachian State team causing them to fall 18 slots in the polls. Alabama sneaks out of Texas with a last second field goal as defending champs Georgia cruises along and hops up to the #1 team in doing so. We are currently 11-9 over the course of the first 2 weeks putting us up 1.1u taking the juice into consideration. Let’s give us some wiggle room with a fun Week 3 slate.
#1 Georgia (2-0) at South Carolina (1-1)
When: 12 PM on 9/17
Line: UGA -24
O/u: 52
It has only been 2 weeks but Georgia is beginning to look like a problem this year as many thought they would take a step back after losing so much from their National Championship team. Stetson Bennett has shown a mastery of this offense in distributing to playmakers left and right. Georgia cruised to a win last week over Samford while South Carolina was in a battle on the road against Arkansas. Spencer Rattler finished with a serviceable stat line although in a losing effort. Rattler will need to limit the sacks and turnover worthy plays in this one if South Carolina has a chance to pull off the upset. After fielding a historic defense last year, Georgia still seems to have a top tier defense under HC Kirby Smart. Unless I’m not taking the crowd into full context here, I think this one will get ugly as Georgia cruises to their third win this season.
The Play: Georgia -24
#6 Oklahoma (2-0) at Nebraska (1-2)
When: 12 PM on 9/17
Line: Oklahoma -11.5
O/u: 67
A new HC will lead the Cornhuskers into battle Saturday as Nebraska and Scott Frost part ways after opening the season 1-2 and losing to Georgia Southern at home. Offense did not seem to be the issue last week for Nebraska as the defense surrendered over 40 points to Georgia Southern. Meanwhile, new HC Brent Venables and transfer QB Dillon Gabriel look every bit the Big 12 front runner they are after two weeks. Never underestimate the impact playing on the road will have for college students as it’s never easy to go into unknown territory and pull out a win as shown last week by Alabama. I love following the trend of trailing teams the week after they part ways with a head coach as the team almost always seems to rally for a hard-fought battle. This historic rivalry has seen a one score game over its past few contests and I expect the same here.
The Play: Nebraska +11.5
#12 BYU (2-0) at #25 Oregon (1-1)
When: 3:30 PM on 9/17
Line: Oregon -3.5
O/u: 57.5
BYU travels on the road for another Top 25 matchup this week after winning in overtime last week against Baylor. In normal circumstances this would be a BYU play al day, but teams often come out flat after an emotional victory. BYU played a draining game against Baylor last week while Oregon bounced back with an easy victory over Eastern Washington putting up 70 points in the process. Having seen Bo Nix at Auburn, I’m very hesitant to lay 3.5 with the Ducks as he’s prone to make bone headed turnovers which can turn a game over on its head. I expect BYU to unfortunately come out flat this week after extending themselves against Baylor as well as Oregon HC Dan Lanning having a solid gameplan to keep BYU QB Jaren Hall in check. I find myself eyeing the total as BYU has a formidable defense of their own.
The Play: Under 57.5
#22 Penn State (2-0) at Auburn (2-0)
When: 3:30 on 9/17
Line: Penn State -3
O/u: 47
Penn State travels to Auburn in a rematch of lat year’s exciting game which ultimately came down to the wire. Something has to give here in this meeting sa Penn State is 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against SEC opponents while Auburn is also 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against Big 10 teams. Nick Singleton provides Penn State their first 100-yard rusher in what seems like eons as he climbs over the century mark in last week’s win over Ohio. This game will be decided in the trenches as Auburn will look to establish their run game while attacking Penn State QB Sean Clifford on the other side with a very polished defensive line. I wouldn’t be doing you any justice to be on the lookout for whatever witchcraft will be in store inside Jordan-Hare stadium as it always seems the luck falls Auburns way there. I feel like the line is exactly right here so give me a slow methodical game of running the ball here.
The Play: Under 47
#20 Ole Miss (2-0) at Georgia Tech (1-1)
When: 3:30 PM on 9/17
Line: Ole Miss -16
O/U: 63.5
Both teams are coming off commanding wins last week but that may not be the best thing for one of them. Georgia Tech is 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games coming off of a win and 2-14 against the spread in their last 16 non-conference games. This contest will showcase good versus bad as Ole Miss brings in a Top 20 rushing offense while Georgia Tech has a bottom rushing defense nationally. I don’t see Georgia Tech having the firepower to keep up with Lane Kiffin’s offense as the offensive mastermind shouldn’t have too much difficulty putting up points. Georgia Tech QB Jeff Sims doesn’t have much help on offense but also doesn’t help himself making mistakes week over week. A rather easy one here as we can’t back the Jackets given their trends.
The Play: Ole Miss -16
UL Monroe (1-1) at #2 Alabama (2-0)
When: 4 PM on 9/17
Line: Alabama -49
O/u: 60.5
I would love to be a fly on the wall in Alabama’s locker room after their narrow victory over Texas in Austin last week. For starters, Alabama came in as a 3-touchdown favorite against Texas and won on a last second field goal as time expires and the players feel the need to give the horns down sign?? Rightfully so, Nick Saban put that to a screeching halt. Nonetheless, a win is a win. Coach Saban does not have a short memory and doesn’t forget when ULM came into Alabama and upset the Tide at home in 2007. Bryce Young and company will look to get the offense back on track as they had a pedestrian game for their standards in Austin while the defense was able to keep the game tight while the offense sputtered. In no way, shape, or form am I predicting an upset from 2007 but it boils down to how much is the victory by? Ultimately, I believe defense can pitch a shutout or close to it once again while the offense does their damage to cruise in the second half.
The Play: Under 60.5
Texas Tech (2-0) at #16 NC State (2-0)
When: 7 PM on 9/17
Line: NC State -9.5
O/U: 55.5
Texas Tech heads on the road this week to face another Top 25 team in NC State after prevailing over Houston at home. Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith was able to pull off the overtime win over Houston but didn’t look as sharp as he did in Week 1 throwing 3 interceptions in this contest. A performance like that on the road will surely find Texas Tech in the losers’ circle. Devin Leary and the Wolfpack cruised to a Week 2 victory after escaping their first contest against East Carolina with a win. I don’t want to sound too much like a broken record but with Texas Tech coming off an emotional overtime victory and travelling on the road doesn’t sound like a winning recipe to me. A tad unsure how I find myself laying the points with NC State again after they broke my heart in the opening game of the season but here I am.
The Play: NC State -9.5
#11 Michigan State (2-0) at Washington (2-0)
When: 7:30 PM on 9/17
Line: Washington -3.5
O/u: 56.5
Both teams come into this contest 2-0 but both will have their first real test of the season here as they didn’t face A Power 5 team over the first 2 weeks of the season. Where Washington is most vulnerable is in the secondary as they lost multiple starters last year to the NFL draft and are pretty banged up in the secondary to start this year as well. The question here is if Michigan State can exploit that weakness? Unfortunately, I don’t believe that the talent under center is there for the Spartans to capitalize on the road against a tough Huskies team. I’m interested to see how this one unfolds as I haven’t had the pleasure to watch much of either of these team sthis year.
The Play: Washington -3.5
#13 Miami (2-0) at #24 Texas A&M (1-1)
When: 9 PM on 9/17
Line: TAMU -5.5
O/u: 45
Texas A&M found themselves looking ahead to this game last week as they lose to Appalachian State at home as 19-point favorites. This game lost some of its shine as TAMU falls 18 points in the rankings to 24. I guess Jimbo Fisher may need to give Nick Saban an apology as it isn’t quite as easy as he says it is to win with the undisputed top recruiting class. New Miami HC Mario Cristobal and QB Tyler Van Dyke will face their toughest test in their short time together as a night game inside Kyle Field is no easy task. Jimbo Fisher will need to get his offense back on track as it’s quite embarrassing to only put up 14 points against an Appalachian State defense that gave up over 60 to North Carolina the week prior (7 of TAMU’s points came off of a kick return TD as well). This game will fall on the shoulders of Tyler Van Dyke and if he can withstand the pressure and noise come Saturday night in College Station. Give me a 1 score game with TAMU prevailing in the end.
The Play: Miami +5.5
Fresno State (1-1) at #7 USC (2-0)
When: 10:30 PM on 9/17
Line: USC -12
O/u: 73.5
Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams cruise to another win as they take down Stanford at home last week. The offense seems to be in midseason form as Riley brings in a balanced attack able to establish the run and throw downfield with weapon Jordan Addison on the outside. USC’s defense is still an unknown as they did give up some points to Stanford last week and will face a tougher test this week as Fresno State brings a more prevalent offense to town behind QB Jake Haener. I don’t see either one of these defenses slowing down the opposing offense this weekend and would have loved playing the over but can’t recommend as it’s moved 5 points off its opening total of 68.5. Stanford found themselves within 2 TD’s last week and with a better offense I see Fresno State in this game late.
NFL Week 1 comes to a close and leaves fans drooling for more as there was plenty of excitement to go around. We had multiple underdogs win outright as well as a couple games needing extra time to decide a winner… or not? We leave opening week of football with a 9-7 record and up 1.3u taking into account the juice. I believe a lot of meat was left on the bone and very well could have had a better week so let’s pick up where we left off and dive into Week 2!
Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
When: 8:15 PM on 9/15
Line: Chiefs -4
O/U: 54.5
No Tyreek Hill? No problem. Patrick Mahomes came out last Sunday with an absolute masterpiece totaling 5 TDs on the day. More impressively, Kansas City held Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to 1 TD over 3 quarters as they tacked on 2 more in mop up duty in the final quarter. Chiefs’ new look defense held up against Arizona but will be faced with a tougher task Thursday night as one of the best young QBs in the league comes to town. Unfortunately, it looks as if Herbert won’t have one of his top options in Keenan Allen as he left Sunday’s game early with a hamstring injury. Mike Williams underwhelmed with only 2 catches in his Week 1 debut and will need to have a bigger game if Chargers expect to win. Key matchup to watch is versatile Safety Derwin James against TE Travis Kelce as he led Kansas City in receiving last week. I may be getting too cute with this play here but both defenses are mproved from last year and I’m not expecting the shootout that most are predicting.
The Play: Under 54.5
New York Jets (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/18
Line: Browns -6
O/U: 40
Ugly is the best word to describe these two passing offenses in Week 1. Both QBs averaged under 5.2 yards per attempt in their Week 1 performances. Cleveland is rather lucky to have secured a win last week as they landed 2 rather questionable flags on their game winning FG drive. We quickly glance at the line as there’s a close to zero percent chance I will lay a TD with Jacoby Brissett at QB for the Browns. Cleveland illustrated how their offense will run as they patiently wait for Deshaun Watson’s suspension to run its course. My suggestion to teams facing Cleveland Is to load up the box to stop Cleveland’s 2 headed monsters at running back and make Jacoby beat you. Begrudgingly, I will take Jets to cover here with a strong defensive game plan and signs of hopeful life from their offense. It can’t get any worse for Flacco, can it?
The Play: Jets +6
Washington Commanders (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-1)
When: 1 PM on 9/15
Line: Lions -2.5
O/U: 48.5
Commanders’ fans got the full Carson Wentz experience in Week 1 as he turned over the ball a few times on some rather ugly plays. With that being said, he still led Washington in a 4th quarter comeback to prevail against the Jaguars. This offense could be explosive with playmakers on the outside if Wentz is able to minimize his mistakes over the course of the season. Meanwhile, a track meet took place in Detroit last week as the Lions lost a close one to Philadelphia 38-35. Lions HC Dan Campbell may have had one of the more intriguing introductory press conferences to date but he truly inspires his team to play hard until the clock shows 0’s. Detroit will be a tough out in almost every game this year and if they are able to hold off Washington’s pass rush I love their odds in covering here but landed on the total instead.
The Play: Over 48.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/18
Line: Buccaneers -3
O/U: 44
Tampa Bay showed why they are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl Sunday night against Dallas as the contest was never really in doubt. Tom Brady’s birth certificate shows that he’s 45 years of age but still has the arm of a 25 year old NFL QB. Brady connected with new weapon Julio Jones multiple times in Week 1 as the former All Pro WR looks to have regained some of his youth as he’s partaking in the TB12 method himself. Remarkably, WR Chris Godwin started Week 1 on the field as opposed to the PUP list as he recovered quickly from a torn ACL last year facing this Saints’ team, but unfortunately left Sunday’s contest early with a hamstring injury. Since his time coming to Tampa Bay, Tom has controlled the NFC South but has had his issues with New Orleans time and time again. New Orleans started the year off with a win as they managed a second half comeback against Atlanta. They welcomed back WR Michael Thomas, and he welcomed them with 2 receiving TDs in the victory. This line feels about right and with two strong defensive teams I found myself on the probable too cute side of this total.
The Play: Under 44
Carolina Panthers (0-1) at New York Giants (1-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/18
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 43
How long has it been since the New York football Giants have had a winning record? My fuzzy memory wants to take me all the way back to 2016 with the boat picture playoff team. Plenty of similarities with these teams as they both had pedestrian offenses in the first half last week but opened up in the second half as both teams took late leads. New York was on the receiving end of a missed game winning FG while Carolina was defeated on a last second field goal of their own. Baker Mayfield was facing heavy pressure all day from Cleveland but luckily for him this week he will not see Myles Garrett lining up opposite of him. Most of me wants to play the over here but if Carolina is able to bottle up Saquon Barkley they are live to take this one on the road.
The Play: Panthers +2.5
New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/18
Line: Patriots -1.5
O/U: 40.5
Who’s calling the offensive plays in New England? Both teams come into Sunday’s contest with shaky performances at best on the offensive side of the ball. Patriots barely managed to move the ball in Miami while Pittsburgh turned their defense into offense as they turned Joe Burrow over 5 times in this game. Unfortunately, it looks like Pittsburgh will be losing former DPOY TJ Watt for several weeks if not the year to what seems to be a torn peck. Losing Watt will be a huge blow for this Steelers defense that I’m unsure they will be able to overcome. This one is rather easy for me as New England still has one of the best coaches of all time looking to get them in the win column for the first time this season.
The Play: Patriots -1.5
Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
When: 1 PM on 9/18
Line: Colts -4
O/U: 47
Matt Ryan led the Colts to an unprobable 4th quarter comeback with 17 points but came up short as they ended with the first tie of the season. Colts, funny enough, sit atop the AFC South with the Texans even while not having won Week 1. Many people had high aspirations for this Indianapolis team and that will be put to the test Week 2 as they face the music this week returning to Jacksonville after their crushing Week 18 loss that kept them out of the playoffs. Jacksonville looked substantially better as they put their Urban Meyer days behind them, but Trevor Lawrence still does not look like the highly touted QB we loved gcoming out of Clemson. Colts get back on track as their front 7 has a field day in Jacksonville.
The Play: Colts -4
Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/18
Line: Ravens -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Week 1 was a good weekend to be a first time HC in the NFL as new Dolphins’ HC Mike McDaniel began his tenure off with a division win against New England. This offense showed some of the explosion we were expecting after their offseason acquisitions but played conservatively for a majority of the game as they took a 17 point lead into halftime. Meanwhile, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson looked every bit of his former MVP status as he easily handled the Jets on the road. This game will show as a marker for Jackson’s improvement as Miami attacked the young QB with plenty of blitzes in last year’s matchup in an effort to have him make a perfect throw. Miami’s defensive game plan worked last year and may provide even more wrinkles this year as the homer in me will be riding with Miami. Hopefully, Tua continues his strong Week 1 start on the road and leads the team to 2-0.
The Play: Dolphins +3.5
Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Los Anageles Rams (0-1)
When: 4:05 PM on 9/18
Line: Rams -10.5
O/U: 47
A Super Bowl hangover for Matthew Stafford and the Rams? Either that or every team in the league should fear Josh Allen and the Bills. The Rams welcome Atlanta into town as what seems to be a “get right” game indicated by the opening line. Rams WR Allen Robinson signed this offseason for what he hoped would be a breakout season but left oening night with only 1 catch. We all know and trust HC Sean Mcvay to be able to get this eam right and be able to establish the run to set up his play action passing game. Atlanta could very easily be coming into this game 1-0 as they let up a 4th quarter comeback against their division rival Saints. Atlanta’s offense showed off a few wrinles in their opener as they displayed a read option between QB Marcus Mariota and RB Cordarelle Patterson which gashed New Orleans’ defense at times. Going back and forth on this one, I ultimately landed on Rams needing a statement victory along with the fact Atlanta is travelling across 3 time zones.
The Play: Rams -10.5
Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
When: 4:05 PM on 9/18
Line: 49ers -10
O/U: 42.5
Standing atop the NFC West after the first week of football is none other than… the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle won a huge contest as they welcomed former QB Russel Wilson into their stadium and sent him packing with a loss. San Francisco lost a slip and slide of a football game in Chicago as the field was less than desirable to play on. Quite difficult to judge Trey Lance with all of the given weather conditions so this should be a game to see how the second year QB has progressed. 49ers should be able to move the ball on Seattle’s defense as they lose leader Jamal Adams for what looks like a lengthy amount of time. 49ers take this game, but with Geno Smith looking serviceable in Week 1 and the back door cover looking alive I will take the over.
The Play: Over 42.5
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
When: 4:25 PM on 9/18
Line: Bengals -7.5
O/U: 43
Joe Burrow with most likely his worst performance as a professional QB and still the Bengals should have won against Pittsburgh. A missed PAT at the end of regulation and missed FG in overtime are a few reasons they start off with a loss rather than a win. Dallas looks like they missed WR Amari Cooper Sunday night as their offense was pedestrian outside of their opening script. Dak had no help outside of CeeDee Lamb and also got hurt in this game most likely missing several weeks. Backup QB Cooper Rush seems to be the new man under center. I usually love the trend of riding with backup QBs as the team as able to rally behind them but with the offense put on display Week 1 by Dallas I’m left with no choice but to lay the points.
The Play: Bengals -7.5
Houston Texans (0-0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)
When: 4:25 on 9/18
Line: Broncos -10
O/u: 45.5
Questionable decision by new Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett on Monday night to say the least as he decides to kick a 64-yard game winning field goal as opposed to giving Broncos’ new QB Russel Wilson a chance to win the game late. Denver seemed phased by Seattle’s crowd noise throughout the game as they totaled 12 total penalties giving Seattle a third of their first downs via penalties. Houston came out quick in Week 1 with a 20-3 lead against the Colts in which they ultimately blew resulting in the first tie of the NFL season. Although leading most of the game, Houston was doubled in total yards by Matt Ryan and the Colts. The crowd and altitude will surely have an impact on Houston in Denver’s first home game of the season Let’s see what Chef Russ can do to bounce this team back into the win column with a double digit win in Week 2.
The Play: Broncos -10
Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)
When: 4:25 on 9/18
Line: Raiders -6
O/U: 51.5
Difficult to say if these teams have a bottom tier defense or if their Week 1 performances were because of facing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Raiders’ fans should be elated of their acquisition of Devante Adams as the star WR doesn’t seem to have missed a beat sporting silver and black this year. Another big game for Adams should be in the cards as this Arizona secondary doesn’t have anyone of major threat to slow him down. Arizona and Kyler Murray look to get their offense back on track as they managed only 1 TD in the first 3 quarters. After Kyler secured a monumental deal this offseason, he needs to come out in Week 2 and show the league why that is. Points won’t be at a premium today in this game and the backdoor is sure to be alive if the Raiders are in control.
The Play: Cardinals +6
Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)
When: 8:20 on 9/18
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 42.5
Shaky start for Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers as the plethora of new WRs did not seem to be in sync with the back-to-back MVP. It’s been a while since these two teams squared off with the Bears having a better record and that will be put to a screeching halt Sunday night. Although they ended with a win, Chicago’s offense was putrid against the 49ers and it was not because of the rain either. QB Justin Fields doesn’t have the offensive line in front of him nor the weapons on the outside to help him shine in year 2. Simply put by Aaron Rodgers said to Chicago last year, “I own you”. Offense wasn’t the only thing to underwhelm as Green bay was expected to have one of the top defenses in the league but got torched by star WR Justin Jefferson. Aaron Rodgers and his defense get their season back on track with a dominating win Sunday night over Chicago.
The Play: Packers -10
Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)
When: 7:15 PM on 9/19
Line: Bills -10
O/u: 49.5
Buffalo looked every bit the Super Bowl favorites as they beat the reigning champs by double digits in the opening game of the season (and it could have been worse). Although they lost Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll to New York, Buffalo’s offense doesn’t seem to have missed a beat with Josh Allen under center. Tennessee was a missed game winning FG away from coming in 1-0 as well in this matchup. I don’t fully believe in this offense but HC Mike Vrabelhas my trust from what he’s done since taking this team over. Ultimately, I believe the Bills will win this game but expect the tTitans to keep this one close on the back of Derrick Henry. With long methodical drives and keeping the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands, Tennessee may just have a chance here to upset Buffalo in their home opener. Look ahead line had Bills favored by a TD so I will gladly scoop up 3 more from what could be a Week 1 overreaction.
The Play: Titans +10
Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
When: 8:30 on 9/19
Line: Eagles -2
O/u: 50.5
Star wideouts were on display last week for both teams as Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown put on a clinic in their 2022 debut. Both offenses demonstrated the ability to put north of 24 points up each week. The only question we have here is how will Primetime Kirk Cousins look? My guess is great. A monkey has been taken off Kirk Cousins back now that he has a new head coach in town. Mike Zimmer was a great head coach in his tenure but the open tension between himself and his starting QB had to have played a part in Kirk’s play throughout the season. I know for me I do a tad better with my leaders building me up rather than tearing me down. A tough act for these teams to follow in Week 1 but expect another fireworks show and its not even 4th of July.
The long wait is finally over as the NFL season is back! NFL sits back and relaxes as the story lines unfold themselves with plenty of exciting Week 1 match ups. Hopefully you paid attention this offseason as there are several teams trotting out new starting QBs. Join us weekly as we breakdown the NFL slate and provide a best bet.
Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
When: 8:20 PM on 9/8
Line: Bills -2.5
O/U: 52
Week 1 of NFL football kicks off with what could have been a Super Bowl matchup last year as the Bills were just 13 seconds away from punching their ticket to the AFC championship game for a potential Super Bowl bid. These two teams provide a few of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL as this game is star studded with talent on both sides of the ball. QB Josh Allen is a top pick for this year’s MVP and for good reason. Although led by Allen, the Bills defense will be showing off a new piece from this offseason as Von Miller brings his talents over from the Rams as he helped them hoist the Lombardi trophy last year. Unfortunately, theBills will not have Tre’davious White for this game and will be tested with Triple Crown winner last year Cooper Kupp and a new shiny toy in Allen Robinson. Bills are set out to prove that they are this year’s favorites as they take a win back home to Buffalo.
The Play: Bills -2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Detroit Lions (1-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Eagles -4
O/U: 48.5
After making the playoffs last year, the Eagles are everyone’s dark horse team to make even more noise as they added WR AJ Brown and several defensive pieces this offseason. A make it or break it type year for QB Jalen Hurts as he enters year 3 with a team set up for success. Eagles have one of the best rosters in football but shouldn’t overlook this Lions team as they always compete under HC Dan Campbell. Lions are still a year or so away from making loud noise and are a potential game changing QB away from contending in the NFC North moving forward. I like this game to have points and a lot of them.
The Play: Over 48.5
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: 49ers -7
O/U: 41.5
There’s a new QB under center in San Francisco as Trey Lance takes the baton from Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance is set up for success as HC Kyle Shanahan led offenses are very QB friendly with offensive weapons everywhere on the field. Bears QB Justin Fields on the other hand has not been helped as much as his 2021 draft counterpart as they have one of the worst offensive lines in football along with few weapons for him to utilize on offense. Keep an eye out on the weather for this game as there seems to be rain out in the forecast but as long as the weather holds up I love the 49ers to take this one easily.
The Play: 49ers -7
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Bengals -6.5
O/U: 44.5
Mitchell Trubisky looks to take over for the Steelers under center as Big Ben finally sails off into the sunset. He is faced with a tough Week 1 opponent as the Bengals are coming off of a Super Bowl appearance. Are Super Bowl hangovers a real thing? This game will highlight plenty of offensive weapons on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati bolstered their offensive line this offseason and will be tested early and often as Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt looks to build off of his 22.5 sacks last season. The over would normally be in play for me here but something about a division dog intrigues me. I expect the Bengals to win this one but for Pittsburgh to keep it close.
The Play: Steelers +6.5
New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 46.5
These aren’t your Miami Dolphins you’ve grown accustomed to as they brought in a load of talent to help Tua succeed in year 3. Miami welcomes in electric WR Tyreek Hill as he plans to earn the title Legion of Zoom for the team down in South Beach. On the other side, QB Mac Jones has not been helped as much this offseason as he lost his Offensive Coordinator and has no notable additions on offense besides former Dolphins WR Devante Parker. Miai will be without CB Byron Jones for the first 4 weeks of the season as he was placed on the PUP list but I don’t see New England having the weapons to exploit that loss. Dolphins HC Mike Mcdanielwill look to start his first year off on a high note with a home victory.
The Play: Dolphins -3
Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Panthers -2.5
O/U: 41.5
A battle between the exes takes place in Carolina as former Browns QB Baker Mayfield looks to lead his new team against Cleveland. Cleveland will be without QB Deshaun Watson for this game as he suffered an 11 game suspension. Baker has said all of the right things in the media but we all know the chip he will be playing with on his shoulder come Sunday afternoon. I truly feel that Mayfield’s play took a hit last year as he was playing with a torn labrum and he is looking to bounce back along with RB Christian McCaffrey. Not a whole lot to dive into as I will always ride with Baker in a revenge narrative.
The Play: Panthers -2.5
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
When: 1 ET on 9/11
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 46.5
After a long career sporting a Falcons jersey, Matt Ryan will be wearing blue this year for Indy. Ryan is welcomed with a top offensive line, running back, and up and coming wide receiver in Michael Pittman. After missing the playoffs last year in a shameful Week 18 loss to the Jaguars, Indy will look to bounce back and potentially regain control of the AFC South. Their defense contains one of the best Front 7’s in football and will look to make some noise against second year QB Davis Mills. Houston is predicted to have one of the top picks in next year’s NFL Draft as they don’t have the roster yet to compete week in and week out. This Colts team will be too much for Davis Mills and company at home.
The Play: Colts -7
New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 42.5
Atlanta is projected to have a top pick in next year’s NFL Draft and with good reason but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy for the Saints. It always seems that Atlanta plays the Saints tight in almost every contest over the years no matter the talent gap. New Orleans will be playing their first game after HC Sean Payton announced his retirement last offseason. The Saints shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball down the field as Atlanta is lacking in talent besides CB AJ Terrell. Many will like New Orleans to cover here but I’m playing the over as the back door will sure to be alive and division dogs at home are never fun to play with.
The Play: Over 42.5
Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 44.5
Jets QB Zach Wilson will have to wait to make his 2022 debut as he recovers from injury which means… Joe Flacco revenge game! Flacco demonstrated the ability to move the ball last year that even the young Wilson did not with this offense. Unfortunately for Joe, Baltimore is coming off a year missing the playoffs after an injury riddled season. Baltimore returns plenty of key starters along with QB Lamar Jackson who is playing in a contract year. New York is still a year or so away from making a leap to contender so give me Baltimore here in Week 1. Note: I would much rather play a 2 team teaser with Baltimore and Indy.
The Play: Ravens -7
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Washington Commanders (0-0)
When: 1 PM on 9/11
Line: Commanders -3
O/U: 44
The NFL really does a fantastic job with scheduling games with fun story lines attached to them. Commanders QB Carson Wentz was shipped out of Indy last year after failing to beat Jacksonville in Week 18 as a double digit favorite. Carson Wentz revenge game? I believe so. Wentz may be getting his final crack at being a starting QB in the NFL and has weapons to help him along the way in Scary Terry and 1st round pick Jahan Dotson. Jacksonville will sure to improve this year from the mere fact of their head coaching change going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. This game feels like it will be decided late but give me the home team to prevail in Week 1.
The Play: Commanders -3
Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
When: 4:25 PM on 9/11
Line: Packers -1.5
O/U: 48
A new regime in town in Minnesota as they move on from HC Mike Zimmer and bring in Sean McVay’s understudy from Los Angeles, Kevin O’Connell. Green Bay will be without All Pro WR Devante Adams as he was traded to Las Vegas this offseason. Aaron Rodgers will be put to the test as he leads a core of young but talented wide receivers. I don’t often find myself betting against the back to back MVP and won’t find myself doing that here. Minnesota will surely start meshing into the season but don’t love the prospects of them hitting the ground running against this Green Bay defense.
The Play: Packers -1.5
New York Giants (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
When: 4:25 PM on 9/11
Line: -5.5
O/U: 43.5
Former Bills HC Brian Daboll takes over in New York as he looks to lead them back into meaningful games late into the year. Unfortunately, Daboll does not have the roster to start competing early in year 1 but look for this team to compete all season long. Always keep an eye out on teams with new head coaches to see if their team either quits on him or plays hard until the final whistle. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been a playoff contender in every year under HC Mike Vrabel and don’t be surprised to find them in that situation again as they look to bounce back from a tough playoff loss last year against Cincinnati. Derrick Henry returns from injury and sets his eyes on trying to get back to 2000 rushing yards. Titans win this game but spread seems too tight to play.
The Play: Over 43.5
Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
When: 4:25 PM on 9/11
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 52
Justin Herbert and company watched on the sidelines in dismay as their playoff hopes faded away last year against the Raiders as Daniel Carlson kicked a game winning field goal to send them home. Redemption will be spelled LAC come Sunday afternoon as Herbert will lead this high explosive offense to a Week 1 win against their AFC West Rivals. Las Vegas will be running out not only a new head coach but offensive weapon as they acquired WR Devante Adams this offseason to reunite with his Fresno State QB Derek Carr. Las Vegas contains all the weapons to provide explosion on offense but I don’t see the weapons necessary to slow down Los Angeles over the course of 60 minutes. Over is in play here but backing Herbert instead.
The Play: Chargers -3
Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
When: 4:25 PM on 9/11
Line: Chiefs -4.5
O/U: 53.5
Be on the lookout for fireworks in Arizona as this game has the highest total on the slate this weekend. Both teams have young, exciting QBs under center in Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Each QB will be without their primary target from last year as Chief’s traded WR Tyreek Hill to Miami this offseason and Cardinals Deandre Hopkins will be serving a 6 game suspension. Kansas City utilized their 2 first round picks in last year’s NFL Draft by double dipping on the defensive side of the ball trying to provide stops so that their high-powered offense can have more opportunities to score. I will put my faith in former MVP Patrick Mahomes and future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid as opposed to a Cardinals team who fell apart down the stretch last year.
The Play: Chiefs -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
When: 8:20 PM on 9/11
Line: Buccaneers -2
O/U: 50
The first Sunday of the NFL season will come to a close as last year’s first game takes center stage. I know that Tom Brady is invincible but at some point the decline has to take place. A weird offseason is an understatement for Tampa Bay as the following series of events took place: Tom Brady retires, Tom Brady unretires, HC Bruce Arians retires, and Tom Brady leaves training camp for over a week prior to season starting. These events alone are strange but all taking place with the same team seem even more odd. Brady logged over 700 pass attempts last year and most likely will near the 650 mark again as Tampa Bay loves to air it out on offense. Dallas has a rather boom or bust defense and combining that with Dallas’ ability to throw the ball downfield gives me an easy side for this one.
The Play: Over 50
Denver Broncos (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0
When: 8:15 PM on 9/12
Line: Broncos -6
O/U: 43
2022’s QB Carousel finally comes to an end with the final game of Week 1 showcasing Russel Wilson with his new team on the road against his former. We should see two totally different play styles Monday night as Denver will let Russ cook while Seattle will most likely try to control the ground game and play tough nosed defense. Denver provides Russ with all of the weapons he needs as he guns for his first MVP (vote) and another look at a deep playoff run. Seattle will sure to be rocking as the 12th man will play a factor but remember Russ isn’t a stranger in this stadium. He should have his team prepared for the noise and for their opponent as he’ll be sure to show off why Seattle should have never let him go.
We always have done well in week one here at TGIS as we take advantage of Vegas mistaken evaluations of a few teams and spreads. Last week we finished 7-5-1, not great, not bad… decent. Now onto Week 2 where we will be on the road to Austin… LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 2 Games of the Week (All Times CST)
#1 Alabama -20 at Texas – 11:00am
This may be the best Alabama defense since 2016. Add in an inexperienced Texas offensive line… I do not think Texas will be able to move the ball. Bama wins this in a blowout. I’m talking a 52-10 kind of blowout.
Top Picks of the Week
Louisville at Central Florida -6.5 – Friday 6:30pm
Louisville looked absolutely awful against Syracuse. They could not stop a dual threat in quarterback Garrett Shrader. You know who starts for quarterback at UCF? Former Ole Miss dual threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee who threw for 308 yards and ran for 87 yards in his first game starting for UCF. Plumlee is going to give this Louisville trouble in the Bounce House.
South Carolina +8.5 at #16 Arkansas – 11:00am
Arkansas played decently against Cincinnati, but nine points against another good SEC team? Way too many points. Arkansas most likely wins, but think this will be close.
#24 Tennessee -6.5 at #17 Pittsburgh – 2:30pm
Pittsburgh Coach Pat Narduzzi is back to playing conservative football despite having a decent quarterback. Meanwhile, Tennessee will play fast and efficient offense with quarterback Hendon Hooker. Pitt won’t be able to keep up with the scoring, Tennessee by double digits.
Iowa State +3.5 at Iowa UNDER 41.5 – 3:00pm
Iowa’s offense is the ugliest thing I’ve ever seen. They had 166 total yards and 2.7 yards per play against South Dakota State. The under and taking Iowa State with the points is an easy call.
#25 Houston at Texas Tech -2.5 OVER 65.5 – 3:00pm
Texas Tech hired offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Western Kentucky. Kittley loves to play fast and throw the ball around. I’m not worried about Texas Tech’s starting quarterback Tyler Shough being out for the game. If we are being honest, backup quarterback Donovan Smith is just as good, maybe even better. The Red Raiders beat Houston after the Cougars just scraped by a triple OT game against UTSA.
#20 Kentucky at #12 Florida -5.5 – 6:00pm
The key is if running back Chris Rodriguez is still suspended. Coach Stoops hasn’t came out and said anything regarding his status, but without him, Kentucky struggled to run the ball against Miami (Ohio). Florida will be a much bigger challenge especially with star quarterback Anthony Richardson coming off a huge win against Utah. Florida wins this in the Swamp by over a touchdown.
#10 USC -9 at Stanford – 6:30pm
Stanford doesn’t have the offense to keep it close with USC. Caleb Williams and USC are going to score a ton of points. USC in a blowout.
Arizona State at #11 Oklahoma State OVER 58 – 6:30pm
I don’t know if you saw Oklahoma State’s defense… but they gave up 44 points against Central Michigan. I also think the Cowboys will have success offensively. A 58 point total is way too low (hope you got it at the start of the week when it was at 54.5).
#9 Baylor at #21 BYU -3.5 – 9:15pm
BYU looked like a legit top 25 team against South Florida in week 1. I think they will be able to take advantage again as they face a Baylor team that lost a ton of key secondary players from last year. I really like BYU over Baylor as the better team, ignore Baylor being ranked in the AP poll top ten. BYU gets the big victory in the Mormons vs. Baptists.
The College Football season is officially underway as Week 1 is in the books. We finished off Week 1 at 5-5 losing a little bit on the juice. I’m not sure which hurts more: feeling as if you are on the right side of the game but end up losing, or being completely wrong and missing big time. On to Week 2 to get us all in the win column!
#1 Alabama (1-0) at Texas (1-0)
When: 12 ET on 9/10
Line: Alabama -20
O/U: 65.5
Both teams showcased their high powered offenses last week as they each put up north of 50 points in their season home openers. This game highlights 2 highly touted QBs with Bryce Young and Redshirt Freshman Quinn Ewers. In his first outing wearing burnt orange, Ewers didn’t disappoint as he threw for over 200 yards along with 2 passing touchdowns and an interception. Bryce Young showed off why he was the Heisman winner last year as he accumulated 6 total touchdowns on the day. The key to the game will boil down to turnovers. Ewers has a gunslinging reputation which could lead to turnovers providing the Tide a short field and easy path to score. Alabama shouldn’t face too much difficulty on offense as Texas doesn’t have the guys yet to slow down this offense. The over can very well be in play here depending if Texas can score over 20.
The play: Alabama -20
#10 USC (1-0) at Stanford (1-0)
When: 7:30 PM ET on 9/10
Line: USC -9
O/u: 67
These aren’t your Trojans and Cardinals of old as both teams are looking to bounce back after a rocky 2021 campaign. The Lincoln Riley experience started off with fireworks in Southern California as the Trojans put up 66 points in Week 1. QB Caleb Williams seems to have Riley’s offensive plan under his belt as he nearly had a perfect day for his first start as a Trojan. Williams wasn’t the only Pac 12 QB to impress last Saturday as Stanford’s Tanner McKee threw for over 300 yards himself with the team logging almost 9 yards per play. Once again the key will come down to turnovers as Stanford put the ball on the ground 4 times last week against Colgate, losing 3 of them along with an interception in the air. Stanford will need to ensure the turnover battle stays close in this one in order to give themselves a chance against a Top 10 team. Ultimately, I’m looking towards Riley to have brought over that Big 12 defense as he did his high powered offense.
The Play: Over 67
South Carolina (1-0) at #16 Arkansas (1-0)
When: 12 PM ET on 9/10
Line: Arkansas -8.5
O/U: 53
QB KJ Jefferson looked like a seasoned vet with 4 total touchdowns as Arkansas managed to hold off Cincinnati at home last week. He seems to find himself at home with receivers named Trey as he gets himself a new target in Trey Knox (2 TDs Week 1) as he tries to replace production left by first round WR Treylon Burks. As par for the course this year, South Carolina trots out transfer QB Spencer Rattler as their new signal caller. Although the colors may have changed a little it seems that the QB underneath as not as we see more of the same from Rattler with 2 turnovers Week 1 against Georgia State. Coming off an emotional win from Week 1, Arkansas may come out a little slow but still can’t envision how they don’t handle their business at home.
The Play: Arkansas -8.5
Appalachian State (0-1) at #6 Texas A&M (1-0)
When: 3:30 ET on 9/10
Line: Texas A&M -19
O/U: 52.5
If only every game could be what last week’s North Carolina vs. Appalachian State showed off as they had a thrilling 63-61 final. Texas A&M, on the other hand, started off rather slowly as they held a 10-0 lead for what seemed like an eternity against Sam Houston but ultimately winning 31-0. TAMU HC Jimbo Fisher has made it crystal clear that Haynes King is his guy behind center as he provides a dual threat ability that defenses need to be on the lookout for. King’s final stat line reflected over 400 yards of total offense but will need to hone in this week as he threw 2 interceptions against Sam Houston. Part of me will be banking on the fact that the 12th man won’t play as big of a factor as Chase Brice is an experienced leader for Appalachian State. I believe Jimbo will look to give the fans some fireworks as they didn’t get the full show Week 1 and as long as Appalachian State can provide me some support this has the making of another high scoring affair.
The Play: Over 52.5
#25 Houston (1-0) at Texas Tech (1-0)
When: 4 PM ET on 9/10
Line: Texas Tech -2.5
O/U: 65.5
If you are a college football fan craving some offense then seeing an over/under like this really gets you excited. A tale of two different opening weeks as Texas Tech handled business at home while Houston scratched and clawed their way to an overtime victory on the road against UTSA. Unfortunately, Texas Tech lost their starting QB Tyler Shough for what seems to be a few weeks due to injury. The Red Raiders didn’t have to look far for his replacement as the offense didn’t skip a beat as backup QB Donovan Smith came in relief to throw for 4 TDs. Always fun to root for the over in a game like this but would rather take the safe play.
The Play: Texas Tech -2.5
Arizona State (1-0) at #11 Oklahoma State (1-0)
When: 7:30 PM ET on 9/10
Line: Oklahoma State -11
O/U: 58
I hope you didn’t miss the offseason as you might be quite confused looking at these box scores from Week 1. Former Florida QB Emory Jones is the new leader of this Arizona State team as they look to come into Stillwater to provide one of the first big upsets of the year. Meanwhile, reliable Spencer Sanders is back at the helm for the Cowboys. Week 1 looked as if we had the Cowboys of old as they put up over 50 points while Sanders threw for over 400 yards. Arizona State’s Emory Jones brings the threat of not only in the air but rushing the ball as well as he showed off his wheels with 2 rushing touchdowns in Week 1. As many saw the gaudy 102 points combined in Oklahoma State’s first game, you may be scratching your heads as I lean the other way. I expect Mike Gundy to go back to his ways from last year of controlling the pace of play while letting his defense play clean football. Play it but don’t watch it as no one enjoys rooting for an under.
The Play: Under 58
#20 Kentucky (1-0) at #12 Florida (1-0)
When: 7 PM ET on 9/10
Line: Florida -5.5
O/U: 52.5
A great year to be a Gator fan as the city is getting spoiled as they host back to back Top 25 night games. As we thought last week, The Swamp will be rocking again to aid Florida in securing another Top 25 win under their belt. Depending how the season unfolds, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis could very well be potential 1st round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. With that being said, I’m going to ride on the coattails of Levis here – if you are going to be that guy and be a potential top pick you need to be able to come in and have a statement game for your resume. He was able to knock the rust off in Week 1 and should be looking for a big start in The Swamp. Levis’ talent combined with a potential let down factor after a huge Florida victory last week. I’m cool with the Cats losing but let’s keep it close.
The Play: Kentucky +5.5
#24 Tennessee (1-0) at #17 Pittsburgh (1-0)
When: 3:30 PM ET on 9/10
Line: Tennessee -6.5
O/U: 66
Tennessee cracks their way into the Top 25 in Week 2 after a commanding win against Ball State. Honestly, what’s not to like about this team? Tennessee seems to be everyone’s darlings this year and potentially a team to give Georgia a run for their money down the road but first they need to handle their business before looking ahead. Another fun QB matchup with Kedon Slovis for Pittsburgh along with Hendon Hooker from Tennessee. Both teams have the ability here to put up some points on the board but as we saw last week Pat Narduzzi is fine playing a one score game while running the ball. While most are expecting fireworks, I’m trending for the exact opposite.
The Play: Under 66
#9 Baylor (1-0) at #21 BYU (1-0)
When: 10:15 PM ET on 9/10
Line: BYU -3.5
O/U: 53.5
Nothing quite like getting College Football after dark. This game will mark the last time that these two schools will square off as non-conference opponents as BYU is set to join the Big 12 next year. All eyes will be set on BYU Jaren Hall as the QB picked up right where he left off last year in BYU’s Week 1 victory. I expect Baylor HC Dave Aranda to scheme up some clever defenses to confuse Hall but BYU is coming into this game with something to prove both for next year joining the Big 12 and this year gaining more respect with a higher ranking.
The Play: Over 53.5
Arkansas State (1-0) at #3 Ohio State (1-0)
When: 12 PM ET on 9/10
Line: Ohio State -43
O/U: 68.5
Although winning against a Top 5 team in Week 1, Ohio State slides in the rankings from 2 to 3. This could be because Georgia looked every bit the reigning National Champions that they did or that people were underwhelmed by the Buckeyes showing like I was. The defense for Ohio State held up their end of the bargain last Saturday night but the offense underwhelmed for 3 quarters to say the least. I expect Ryan Day to give the fans a show of what this offense has the potential to do as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing them put up 50+ against weaker opponents.
We finally have a full-lineup of college football games this Saturday (and some sprinkled in on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday). Time for an action packed weekend after a little appetizer in week 0 (one where we finished 1-2). We are leaving that behind us… LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 1 Games of the Week (All Times CST)
#11 Oregon vs. #3 Georgia (-17) – 2:30pm (Atlanta, GA)
In a “neutral field” game in Atlanta, the Bulldogs are the more talented team. Sure they lost quite a few players on the defensive side of the ball to the NFL draft, but Georgia has the depth to reload. Where they really excel is at the skill positions with a great wide receiver and tight end room which will make it easy to score points. Finally, in a four-year tradition at TGIS, WE DO NOT TRUST BO NIX. Georgia in a blowout.
Pick: Georgia 42-17
#23 Cincinnati at #19 Arkansas (-6) – 2:30pm
An exciting matchup comes to Fayetteville where the Hogs are less than a touchdown favorite against Cincinnati. Nine players were drafted off of the 2021 Bearcat team including six on the defensive side of the ball. That isn’t easy to replace. Arkansas runs all over Cincinnati in a double digit win.
Pick: Arkansas 31-17
#5 Notre Dame at #2 Ohio State OVER 59 – 6:30pm
This 17.5 point line is about right. No way I am going to start out the year betting against one of the most talented offenses in the nation (Ohio State if it wasn’t obvious). What I am betting against is that there is a massive improvement from the Buckeyes defense. Notre Dame puts up some points to help with the over.
Pick: Ohio State 45-27
Top Picks of the Week
Penn State (-3.5) at Purdue – Thursday 7:00pm
Purdue lost their two best players off of last year’s team: edge rusher George Karlaftis and WR David Bell. Purdue doesn’t have the talent to replace them, especially at wide receiver. With Penn State’s best unit being in the secondary they will take advantage and force Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell into throwing some bad balls. Penn State is the better team and wins by over a touchdown.
Illinois (+3) at Indiana – Friday 7:00pm
Illinois will run the ball with running back Chase Brown all over a bad Indiana defense. Illinois is the better team and we will gladly take the points.
TCU (-13.5) at Colorado – Friday 9:00pm
Colorado is the worst team in the Pac-12 as they lost a ton of players to the transfer portal. TCU on the other hand has more talent than you’d think. TCU in a blowout.
North Carolina (-1.5) at Appalachian State – Saturday 11:00am
I wish the Tar Heels looked more impressive against Florida A&M last week. But I’m still trusting my gut. North Carolina as a middle to upper tier ACC team over just an OK App State team.
#13 NC State (-11.5) at East Carolina – Saturday 11:00am
NC State has an awesome defense and one of the best QBs in the country. I consider the Wolf Pack a fringe top ten team and believe they will easily handle the ECU Pirates.
Arizona (+6) at San Diego St. – Saturday 2:30 pm
San Diego State was a super conservative team last year. The fact is they do not blow teams out. Look for Arizona to be much better than last year with QB Jayden De Laura transferring from Washington State. I actually like a moneyline sprinkle on it as well with the Wildcats pulling the upset..
Tulsa (-6.5) at Wyoming – Saturday 2:30 pm
We are starting the year with a “Fade the bottom of the Mountain West” principle (this applies to Wyoming, Hawaii and Nevada as they may be a few of the worst teams in the FBS which was caused by transfers leaving). A Tulsa team led by Senior QB Davis Brin will handle Wyoming just fine.
Texas State (+1) at Nevada – Saturday 4:30 pm
(See Tulsa/Wyoming analysis…. same principle applies).
Georgia State at South Carolina (-12.5) – Saturday 6:30 pm
South Carolina has the Spencer Rattler era starting as less than a two touchdown favorite at home against Georgia State. Georgia State isn’t very good against the pass… look for the Gamecocks to blow them out of the water. Take South Carolina.
Florida State vs. LSU (-3) – Sunday 6:30 pm (New Orleans, LA)
LSU has one of the best receiving groups in the nation and a very good defensive line. LSU is the more talented team that will take advantage of what basically is a home game in New Orleans. LSU by a touchdown.
234 days have come and gone since Georgia won the 2022 National Championship game against Alabama. Will the Bulldogs repeat? Is it Alabama’s time for redemption or can Ohio State come get their first National Championship with Ryan Day leading the way? We are all about to find out as the College Football season is set to kick off Week 1 on Thursday September 1st . Join me weekly with the TGIS Ten Piece as I breakdown the slate and offer up the best play for the action. Fade me or follow me I’m glad that football is back and I’m ready for the ride!
West Virginia (0-0) at #17 Pittsburgh (0-0) When: 9/1 at 7 ET Line: Pitt -7.5 O/U: 52
Thursday night marks not only the return of College Football Week 1 action but also the return of the famous Backyard Brawl rivalry between these two teams. This will be the 105th meeting between the schools and the first time lining up across from each other since 2011. Pittsburgh currently leads the series all time 61-40-3. Both teams will be highlighting new faces under center with transfer quarterbacks with JT Daniels suiting up for the Mountaineers while Kedon Slovis looks to lead the Panthers. For me this game boils down to what West Virginia can do on the offensive side of the ball. Former USC Offensive Coordinator Graham Harrell reunites with JT Daniels in Morgantown but face a stout Pittsburgh defense Week One who were 2nd in the nation in sacks last year and 1st in the ACC in defense. On the other side, I believe Pittsburgh HC Pat Narduzzi will look to play competitive defense while conservative on offense after losing Kenny Pickett to the NFL draft and Biletnikoff Jordan Addison to the transfer portal.
The Play: West Virginia +7.5
Penn State (0-0) at Purdue (0-0) When: 9/1 at 8 ET Line: PSU -3.5 O/u: 53
These two teams are no strangers to one another as they kickoff their seasons Thursday night with an exciting Big 10 matchup. Purdue ended last season on a high note with a bowl win over Tennessee and ending 9-4 while Penn State suffered a down year under James Franklin finishing 7-6. Both teams kickoff 2022 similarly as they return their starting QBs from last season Sean Clifford (PSU) and Aidan O’Connell (PUR) but loose their top receiving options to the NFL draft in Jahan Dotson (PSU) and David Bell (PUR). Penn State and Sean Clifford have the clear talent advantage against the Boilermakers but having an experienced O’Connell under center could be the saving grace for Purdue as I’m sure he will test the talented Penn State secondary including Joey Potter Jr. I believe Penn State will come out victorious in this game but I’m not in love with the hook on a key number. I expect points to be at a premium Thursday night.
The Play: Under 53
#13 NC State (0-0) at East Carolina (0-0) When: 9/3 at 12 ET Line: NCST -11.5 O/U: 51.5
NC State comes into 2022 looking to build off of a 9-3 2021 campaign. QB Devin Leary returns for his redshirt junior season as he looks to lead the Wolfpack to a hopeful ACC championship game. Leary has all of the tools he needs as a quarterback with a cannon attached to his shoulder able to make all of the throws. NC State brings back a veteran team as they are returning 10 starters on offense and 7 starters on defense. State will have their hands full on defense as East Carolina returns their top 2 WRs along with their QB and starting RB from 2021. I believe this game has the looks of being close at the start but the Wolfpack will pull away at the end to give us the cover.
The Play: NC State -11.5
North Carolina (1-0) at Appalachian State (0-0) When: 9/3 at 12 ET Line: UNC -1.5 O/U: 56
The two North Carolina teams look to face off Saturday in what should be a high scoring thriller. North Carolina is bouncing back after a down year and losing their starting QB Sam Howell to the NFL Draft. Highly touted QB Drake Maye made his first start this year in Week 0 logging nearly 300 yards in the air and 5 touchdowns passing. QB Chase Brice returns for Appalachian State looking to build off of a solid 10-4 season last year. North Carolina put up 56 in their first game this season while giving up over 20 to a Florida A&M team that was severely short on players for this game. While I don’t expect North Carolina to be as efficient on offense as they were last week I do see them scoring in the 30s while an Appalachian State team is sure to put up as much as Florida A&M did the week prior. I like the Tar Heels to win a close one but would rather play the total.
The Play: Over 56
#11 Oregon (0-0) at #3 Georgia When: 9/3 at 3:30 ET (Atlanta, GA) Line: UGA -17 O/U: 53
The 2021 National Champion Georgia Bulldogs look to start their repeat campaign against some familiar foes as Oregon is lead by transfer QB Bo Nix formerly of Auburn and new HC Dan Lanning former Defensive Coordinator of Georgia last year. Kirby Smart has a slight competitive advantage in this game both from gameplanning against Bo Nicks for the previous 3 years and from understand what Lanning will want to do both on offense and defense. UGA is replacing a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball but when you consistently have Top 5 recruiting classes aids in replacing that talent. UGA is returning a lot of talent with returning QB Stetson Bennet. Bennett is not the most talented QB out there but knows how to operate OC Todd Monken’s offense and get the ball in their playmakers hands. Definitely doesn’t hurt that this “mutual site” game will have 90% UGA fans in the stands.
The Pick: UGA -17
#23 Cincinnati (0-0) at #19 Arkansas (0-0) When: 9/3 at 3:30 Line: ARK -6
O/U: 52
Cincinnati was America’s darlings last year as Cinderella finally got her chance to go to the big dance. An impressive season came up empty as they lost to Alabama in the semifinals. Unfortunately, the NFL Draft decimated this Bearcats team as they lose their starting QB, RB, WR, and plenty more in the back end of their defense. The Razorbacks also took a hit in the draft as they lost their star WR Treylon Burks. The advantage they have is that QB KJ Jefferson has some experience under his belt leading Arkansas to an impressive 9-4 record last year. Alabama gave a good blueprint to this hard nosed football team that if you are able to be patient you can run the ball on the Bearcats. KJ has developed nicely as a passer but still is a tremendous threat with his legs as well The pigs are going to be hungry this time of year.
The Play: Arkansas -6
#7 Utah (0-0) at Florida (0-0) When: 9/3 at 7 ET Line: UTAH -3 O/U: 51
There’s a new regime down in Gainesville as Dan Mullen is out and former Louisiana Lafayette HC Billy Napier is in. Billy Napier was an excellent hire for the Gators as he was able to turn ULL’s football program into something not to be overlooked. The biggest question for the Gators in this game and year is QB Anthony Richardson. You can often find Richardson in the top end of 2023 NFL mock drafts as he has all of the tools to be prolific. Besides Georgia, I believe Utah is one of the toughest defenses that Florida will face all year. Utah travels across the country to The Swamp with returning QB Cameron Rising and RB Tavion Thomas who showed off what their offense could do in last year’s Rose Bowl game against Ohio State. I like the Gators to keep this one close but love the crowd to impact this game even more.
The Pick: Under 51
Utah State (1-0) at #1 Alabama (0-0) When: 9/3 at 7:30 ET Line: ALA -41.5
O/U: 62
In no way, shape, or form will this game be close on Saturday at Bryant Denny but selfishly as an Alabama graduate and with a weak slate for Week One, I had to write about my favorite team. Alabama had the luxury of watching and scouting their opponent as Utah State played UConn in their Week 0 opening game. Utah State played an inferior opponent and while the scoreboard may have shown a win by 11 it was none too impressive for those watching. Alabama is currently the favorite next to Ohio State to win the National Championship this year and is lead by Heisman winning Quarterback Bryce Young. The offense has a few question marks as leading receivers Jameson Williams and John Metchie are now playing on Sunday’s but to revamp the offensive room Bama brought in 3 electric transfers in Jahmyr Gibbs from Georgia Tech, Jermaine Burton from Georgia, and Tyler Harrell from Louisville. Expect all 3 players to have pivotal roles this year for the Tide but especially RB Jahmyr Gibbs as he brings a different element than we are accustomed. On defense, Will Anderson and Dallas Turner are both poised to have outstanding years as Anderson is a projected Top 5 pick in next years NFL Draft. I expect this Bama team to put up north of 50 points and for the defense to not let Utah State into double digits.
The Play: Alabama -41.5
#5 Notre Dame (0-0) at #2 Ohio State (0-0) When: 9/3 at 7:30 Line: OSU -17 O/U: 59
Ryan Day and Ohio State enter the 2022 season as one of the most dynamic offenses in the country. Led by CJ Stroud, Ohio State has on offense that will keep Defensive Coordinators up at night with WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and RB Treveyon Henderson. This Buckeyes team will have no issue putting up points throughout the season, but the main concern is will their defense take the step forward that it needs this year? Ohio State brings over DC Jim Knowles who was the DC for Oklahoma State last year as they were able to have one of the top defenses in the nation. Losing Kyle Hamilton to the NFL Draft, Notre Dame’s defense will have their hands full all day, but the offense will have their chances to test this young and new defense. Top TE prospect Michael Mayer will be hungry to keep this Irish team in the game. I expect fireworks up in the Shoe this weekend with Ohio State running away with this one.
The Play: Over 59
Florida State (1-0) at LSU (0-0) When: 9/4 at 7:30 ET (New Orleans, LA) Line: LSU -3 O/U: 51.5
A rather rapid downfall to the LSU and Coach O experience after their historic 2019 National Championship season results in Brian Kelly taking over the helm down in Baton Rouge. Brian Kelly is thrilled that his first game as a coach of the Tigers is at a neutral site game down the road in New Orleans and should expect to provide a home field advantage for his club come Sunday night. Projected QB Jayden Daniels has all of the weapons he could ask for with this LSU team and will look to re-spark what was looking to be an exciting career for the QB starting when he was a true freshman. Meanwhile, Mike Norvell enters a pivotal 3rd season as HC for Florida State. The team was able to start their season off with a win Week 0 behind 2 electric RBs in Trey Benson and Treshaun Ward. I expect Norvell to help limit mistakes by Jordan Travis by controlling the ground game. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the lone game. Sunday night – Geaux Tigers.
Hand up. We had a mediocre 2021 betting record finishing the year around 54%. But we have studied all off season for this moment. WE ARE READY TO FIRE AWAY AT WEEK 0. There are just a handful of games, but still plenty of action to be had.
WE ARE BACK. WE ARE BACK. WE ARE BACK. LET’S GET TO THE PICKS:
Week 0 Game of the Week (All Times CST)
Northwestern vs Nebraska (-12) – 11:30am (Dublin, Ireland)
LIVE FROM DUBLIN, IRELAND FOR HIGH FLYING BIG TEN ACTION. New Nebraska offensive coordinator Mark Whipple comes from Pittsburgh where he put up an offensive clinic. He will try to show off in his first game with experienced transfer QB Casey Thompson. Meanwhile, Northwestern’s defense was absolutely awful last year and lost their best player, Brandon Joseph, via transfer to Notre Dame. Look for a blowout in Dublin, Nebraska by 2+ touchdowns.
Pick: Nebraska 31-10
Top Pick(s) of the Week
North Texas at UTEP (+1) – 8:00pm
North Texas lost dynamic twin brother defensive ends Gabriel and Grayson Murphy. Now, they have a very inexperienced defensive line. On the other side, UTEP brings back 14 starters. I give UTEP the slight edge as a better team… then you add in the fact that it is at home and UTEP is getting points. UTEP is the play.
Vanderbilt (-6.5) at Hawaii – 9:30pm
Hawaii had ten starters leave on the defensive side and has a new head coach in Timmy Chang. Compare that to Vanderbilt who has 13 starters returning with a decent recruiting class coming in. Vanderbilt is way more talented than one of the worst teams in the Mountain West. Do not overrate the Hawaii homefield advantage, especially with them playing at Ching Field (seating capacity 9,300) while Aloha Stadium is under construction. Vanderbilt by over a touchdown.
Heisman trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young leads a very talented Alabama team. However, this year’s team may be led more by their defense. The strength is at edge rusher where Will Anderson, Dallas Turner, and Chris Braswell are all dangerous. The Crimson Tide still has strong units outside of this on the defense including secondary, linebacker and defensive line. As for the offense, transfer wide receivers Jermaine Burton, Tyler Harrell, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs will all step in and be major contributors. The major question mark and weakness of this team is at offensive tackle after Evan Neal was drafted in the top ten. Expect transfer offensive tackle Tyler Steen to fill in at left tackle, but right tackle remains wide open. Regardless, expect one of the better Nick Saban teams this year with the expectation being an appearance in the National Title.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Projected Record: 13-0
The Buckeyes were uncharacteristically bad on defense last year finishing 59th overall. Now Ryan Day has brought in new DC Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State to change that. There are still questions on how good this defense can be with linebacker and cornerback being a mystery. The defense will be heavily reliant on Sophomore defensive linemen like JT Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and Tyleik Williams. Offensively, Ohio State will be one of the best in the nation with the top receiving group, top running back (TreVeyon Henderson), and a top quarterback (CJ Stroud). The great offense will be enough to get through the Big Ten, but the defense will need to step up if the Buckeyes want to be legitimate national title contenders.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Projected Record: 12-1
Georgia is back after their 2021 national championship win. However, the Bulldogs lost a ton on the defensive side. They still have plenty of talent to star on this team including one of the best defensive lineman in the country Jalen Carter. Nolan smith and Rober Beal also return as the starting pass rushers. The concern remains at inside linebacker as they lost three guys who were all drafted in the first three rounds. Also there is a question on who starts opposite of star cornerback Kellen Ringo. On offense, returning quarterback Stetson Bennett is efficient. But he struggled against elite defenses by often turning the ball over and is the least talented starter on offense. Georgia’s skill positions are deep with studs including Adonis Mitchell and Arian Smith at wideout. Georgia also has by far the deepest, most talented tight end room with Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert, and Darnell Washington. The offensive line is also one of the best in the nation. Overall, this has a team with enough talent to make the college football playoffs again. But replacing that much defensive talent to the NFL won’t be easy and may lead to an early College Football Playoff exit.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
Projected Record: 10-2
Texas A&M comes into the year with the overall number one recruiting class and a loaded roster. This is especially true on the defensive side of the ball where they finished in the top ten last year. The secondary returns almost anybody including talented corner Jaylon Jones and safety Antonio Johnson. The question on that side of the ball is who steps up at defensive line after losing their top four guys off last year’s team? Lucky for the Aggies they have six five star freshman coming in and talented returning guys in Tunmise Adeleye, and McKinley Jackson. As for the offense, the Aggies have wide receivers ready to step in, but the best of the bunch might be true freshman Evan Stewart. Expect the offensive line to also be a solid, deep unit. There is one major question keeping this football team from reaching their potential… quarterback. The Aggies need Max Johnson, Haynes King, or Connor Weigman to step up if they want a chance at the SEC West or even the playoff. My gut tells me they’re not going to get that type of production and they’ll drop a few games during SEC play.
5. Utah Utes
Projected Record: 12-1
Utah was very close to a Rose Bowl victory last year against Ohio State. Now Utah returns their starting quarterback, Cam Rising, who had Utah playing as a top ten offense last year. The offense will be led through the tight ends Brant Kuithe and Dalton Kincaid. On defense, Utah’s strength is at linebacker with Lander Barton and Mohamoud Diabate. It should be a strong unit, but they will need to find an edge rusher (Van Fillinger could be that guy). Overall, this should be the favorite in the Pac-12 and a potential College Football playoff team.
6. Clemson Tigers
Projected Record: 12-1
Clemson had an incredibly disappointing year last year and still finished 10-3. The problem last year was the offense as they finished 100th in yards per game. Whether they improve will be a major indicator on how far this team goes. If DJ Uiagalelei continues to decline look for true freshman Cade Klubnik to take over. On defense this is one of the greatest defensive lines in the country and, even after losing some key pieces in the secondary, Clemson should still finish as a top ten defense in the nation. Overall, I expect this team to be carried by the defense and the offense to improve from last season. Expect them to be on top of the ACC and be a college football playoff contender.
7. Michigan Wolverines
Projected Record: 10-2
The Wolverines are coming off a great season where they won the Big Ten and made the playoffs. The offense will be good again with either JJ McCarthy or Cade McNamara leading the group. Michigan has one of the deepest groups in the Big Ten at wide receiver, second to Ohio State. The question this year will be how Michigan replaces a ton of key leaders to their defense. The defensive line is especially thin and could keep Michigan from returning to the playoffs. Overall, this is a good team, but replacing that much defensive talent will be tough to make a return trip to the playoffs.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected Record: 9-3
The Marcus Freeman era starts at Notre Dame. Notre Dame is led by a strong offensive and defensive line. Tyler Buckner will take over as the starting QB along with a questionable wide receiver room. Overall, expect the Fighting Irish to be led by their defense. But the offense will need to step up if they want to be a legitimate playoff contender.
9. Oklahoma Sooners
Projected Record: 11-2
The Brent Venables era starts in Norman with a ton of turnover. The Sooners have the most talent in the Big 12, but return only eight starters from last year’s team. On offense UCF transfer Dillon Gabriel takes over at quarterback and instantly becomes one of the best in the conference. He has two talented receivers to throw to in Marvin Mims and Theo Wease. The offense will be explosive with new OC Jeff Lebby, but will need to get better offensive line play. On defense the Sooners are coming off a year where they finished 79th overall. The secondary was a huge issue last year and Brent Venables will have his hands full fixing it. Oklahoma will rely on a few transfers on the defensive line Jeffery Johnson from Tulane and Jonah La’ulu from Hawaii. Overall, this Oklahoma team is a mystery heading into the year where their success will depend heavily on the defense. The expectation should be Big 12 champions, but there are many contenders in the conference that can compete with this team.
10. NC State Wolfpack
Projected Record: 10-2
The Wolfpack have a really solid team going into 2022 and they are led by the best quarterback in the ACC, Devin Leary. If NC State opens up the passing game and lets him throw more, this is a team that could take down Clemson in the ACC Atlantic. Especially, because this team is so good defensively with ten returning starters to a top 20 defense. The defense is led by one of the best linebacker duos in college football between Drake Thomas and Payton Wilson. Overall, if I knew NC State would open up the offense a little more I would trust them to take down Clemson… but even if they don’t I still see this team with a good chance of getting to double digit wins.
11. Miami Hurricanes
Projected Record: 10-3
Miami found their quarterback of the future with the emergence of Tyler Van Dyke last year. Along with Van Dyke, Miami also has a solid offensive line and some talented tight ends. On defense this team was young last year, but return a ton of starters and added quality players via the transfer portal. The strength will be in the secondary after Miami played three talented freshman last year. West Virginia transfer Akheem Mesidor and Leonard Taylor make up a solid defensive tackle duo. Overall, in Mario Cristobal’s first season as head coach he has a solid team. If the defense matures quickly and the offense continues their momentum from last year… this is a legitimate ACC contender.
12. USC Trojans
Projected Record: 10-3
The Lincoln Riley era starts at USC. Coming with Riley are a ton of impact skill position transfers and quarterback Caleb Williams. The offense should be one of the nation’s best. Defense is another story. The linebackers, Alabama transfer Shane Leee and Romolo Heights were the best players on the defense in the spring. But the secondary and defensive line are not strong units. Overall, the offense will put up almost 40 points per game. But the defense will keep this team from being a playoff team.
13. Penn State Nittany Lions
Projected Record: 9-3
Penn State is coming off two disappointing years including finishing 7-6 last year. Starting quarterback Sean Clifford is back again for his super senior season, but there are questions on what his ceiling is. The offensive line has to make an improvement as they struggled last year, especially in the run game. Even with the loss of Jahan Dotson, Penn State still has quality receivers including Parker Washington, Keandre Lambert-Smith, and Michael Tinsley (transfer from Western Kentucky). Defensively, the Nittany Lions lost five guys to the NFL Draft along with losing defensive coordinator Brent Prye. Despite the losses, expect a very good defense, especially in the secondary. Overall, look for James Franklin to turn it around and compete with Michigan for the number two spot in the Big Ten East.
14. Oregon Ducks
Projected Record: 9-3
Dan Lanning enters his first season with quite a bit of talent leftover from Mario Cristobal. The offensive line is by far the strength with four strong starters returning. The skill positions and whether Auburn transfer QB Bo Nix can thrive in the Pac-12 are the main questions. Another position of strength is the front seven where Oregon has legitimate defensive lineman and linebacker sprinkled throughout. On defense the secondary will be the question, but getting transfer cornerback Christian Gonzalez from Colorado will help. Overall, do not expect much of a drop off as Oregon is still a legitimate Pac-12 contender.
15. Ole Miss Rebels
Projected Record: 9-3
Ole Miss is coming off a very good season where they finished in the top 10-15 team with a Sugar Bowl appearance. Last season will be tough to repeat after losing Matt Corral. Quarterbacks Jaxon Dart and Luke Altmyer will compete for the starting job. While Ole Miss did lose their starting quarterback, they were aggressive in the portal and pulled Zach Evans and Ulyssess Bentley to make up a great RB room. As for the pass catchers Jonathan Mingo leads the unit with help from Jordan Watkins from Louisville and a high upside TE in Michael Trigg. The offensive line could be improved as well led by Jeremy James at left tackle. The question will be can the defense repeat as an effective unit after finishing in the top 35 last year. The Achilles heel of last year’s team was a poor run defense. JJ Pegues from Auburn will attempt to help as they are playing him at nose tackle. Cedric Johnson will also be a key defensive player on the edge after a solid 6.5 sacks last year. The Rebels should be solid at defensive back again, but linebacker is a major question. Overall, this is a talented team whose success will be dependent on how Dart or Altmyer replaces Matt Corral.
16. Pittsburgh Panthers
Projected Record: 9-3
Coming off an ACC title, Pittsburgh returns 14 starters. However, they are losing first round quarterback Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff award winner WR Jordan Addison. Still, with their entire offensive line coming back and a good replacement in USC transfer QB Kedon Slovis, Pittsburgh is in a good position to repeat as the ACC Coastal champion. This is especially true on defense where they return almost all of their defensive lineman and a solid secondary. Also returning is Habakkuk Baldonado who finished with 9 sacks last year. Overall this is a really good team, but I worry about coach Pat Narduzzi getting too conservative after his Offensive Coordinator Mark Whipple left for Nebraska.
17. Texas Longhorns
Projected Record: 9-4
Texas is coming off a disappointing 5-7 season. But there is huge optimism in Steve Sarkisian’s second season. The offense is loaded and has a top five receiving group in the country with Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington, and Isaiah Neyor. Add in top running back Bijan Robinson and highly ranked QB Quinn Ewers, this offense has a chance to be special. However, offensive line is a huge issue where the Longhorns might have to start two true freshman offensive tackles. Defensively, they were awful last year finishing 100th in total yards per game. The interior defensive line isn’t bad with Keondre Coburn and Alfred Collins, but I do not see any premier pass rushers on the roster. The Longhorns also are weak at linebacker as they’ve been searching the transfer portal all offseason. The secondary remains shaky as well, but Ohio State transfer Ryan Watts will help the improvement. Overall, with an inexperienced offensive line and average defense I don’t see Texas as a college football playoff contender. However, they have enough offense to be in the mix for a Big 12 title.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
Projected Record: 9-3
When Hendon Hooker took over at starting quarterback for the Vols last year, this became a legitimate top ten offense. Expect a similar explosive offense. The offensive line was good last year and now returns four out of the five starters. The key will be filling in the left tackle spot with Darnell Wright moving back to right tackle. The wide receiver room is also solid with Cedric Tillman coming off a 1000 yard season and transfer Bru McCoy could be a wildcard. As for the defense, the Vols unit finished in the top 50 last year. The defense will have some work replacing their top three defensive lineman and try to improve what was an inconsistent pass rush from last year. One guy that will be relied on to be a key rusher is defensive end Byron Young. Another stud on the defense is linebacker Jeremy Banks, but the Vols will need another linebacker to step up (possibly Juwan Mitchell after only playing 3 games last year). This defense needs to improve in the secondary after finishing near the bottom of the SEC in passing yards against. Expect this defense to finish in the middle of the SEC conference. Overall, this is a quality team who has a legitimate shot at finishing second in the SEC East.
19. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Projected Record: 9-4
The Golden Gophers return a bunch of starters on offense and defense coming off a nine win season. However, the offense needs to improve, especially quarterback Tanner Morgan. Luckily for Minnesota they get back Kurt Ciarrocca at offensive coordinator from their successful 2019 season. Mohamed Ibrahim is also one of the best running backs in the Big Ten back from an Achilles injury, while Chris Autmen-Bell is one of the conference’s top receiver. The defense was a top ten defense last year, but lost a few guys. However, they have enough talent still left to finish on top of the Big Ten West. Overall, expect this to be one of coach PJ Fleck’s most talented teams.
20. Wisconsin Badgers
Projected Record: 9-3
The Badgers had an absolute beast of a defense in 2021. But now they have to replace some key pieces at linebacker and in the secondary. Wisconsin went in the transfer portal to grab three cornerbacks to help out. They have a strong defensive line led by Keanu Benton. But the offense will have to make major improvements this year, led by star running back Braelon Allen, if they want to win the Big Ten West. Overall, expect a strong defense that will most likely be held back by an average offense from being a top team in the nation. However, they still will be the favorite to win the Big Ten West.
21. BYU Cougars
Projected Record: 9-3
BYU returns almost everyone back to what was a 10-3 team last year. The Cougar offense finished in the top 20 in offensive yards per game after a great season by quarterback Jaren Hall. The offense should be fantastic again, but it is defensively where BYU needs to improve. With ten starters coming back expect that to happen. Overall, BYU is very talented and will give the premier teams on their schedule trouble (Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Arkansas).
22. Kentucky Wildcats
Projected Record: 8-4
Coach Mark Stoops has done a phenomenal job keeping Kentucky a steady 8-9 win team the last few years. Even with the new offensive coordinator, expect this to be your classic run-first team. Specifically behind talented, tough-nose running back Chris Rodriguez. Despite the offensive line losing three starters, the coaching staff seems confident in a few former four star recruits stepping up. What continues to be the concern is at wide receiver. Virginita Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson from Virginia Tech will be the top guy, but the complimentary pieces are unknown. Last but not least, quarterback Will Levis will need to improve his efficiency. He has all the tools with even a few publications projecting him as a first round NFL pick. Defensively, there are a few concerns including the defensive line and defensive back. Specifically at cornerback, someone needs to step up other than Carrington Valentine. The strength is Justin Rogers on the defensive line and the outside linebacker unit. Overall, this seems like another classic Kentucky team reliant on the run game and decent defense. But hopes of the SEC East title are too ambitious.
23. LSU Tigers
Projected Record: 8-4
Brian Kelly enters his first year as LSU’s head coach. The LSU team will look different from last year with only around six starters returning. The strength on offense is at the wide receiver position especially with one of the best in the nation, Kayshon Boutte. With very little tight end depth, expect LSU’s offense this year to go with more four wide receiver sets. Who is throwing the ball to the receivers is a major question going into the season with a three quarterback battle brewing between Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels, Garrett Nussmeier, and Myles Brennan. The offensive line is also a concern as the Tigers lost all four of their snap count guys from last year. On the other hand, the defense has a chance to be solid with a talented defensive line that features Jaquelin Roy and Mason Smith. The edge is also a position of strength with rushers Ali Gaye and Ben Ojulari. A key position on the defensive side of the ball is defensive back where they lost 4 out of their five top defensive backs. LSU brought in four defensive back transfers including Arkansas transfers Joe Foucha and Greg Brooks to help the back end. Overall, LSU is still a talented team. But the questions at quarterback, offensive line and defensive back keeps them in the middle of the pack of the SEC West.
24. Arkansas Razorbacks
Projected Record: 8-4
The Razorbacks are coming off an excellent 9-4 season. There is a reason for excitement in Fayetteville as the starting quarterback KJ Jefferson returns after a quality season. Also retuning is the entire offensive line. The skill positions took a hit trying to replace first round pick Treylon Burks. But Oklahoma transfer Jaden Haselwood and breakout candidate Ketron Jackson will help at wideout. Look for Dominic Johnson to be the premier running back in the offense coming off a 500 yard season. Expect him to have an even bigger season as this offense likes to focus on establishing the run game. On defense the Razorbacks will be playing a 3-2-6 base. The defense had some key losses including losing their top three defensive lineman and two impact linebackers from last year. While the defensive line remains a concern, the same can’t be said at linebacker with Bumper Pool and Alabama transfer Drew Sanders starting. The secondary is scattered with new talent including Latavious Brini from Georgia at safety and Dwight McGlothern from LSU at cornerback. Jalen Catalon also returns at safety after a disappointing year following a 2020 first team SEC season. Overall, this should be your classic, hard-nosed, Sam Pittman team that focuses on running the ball and good defense. Expect a pesky team in the SEC West.
25. Iowa Hawkeyes
Projected Record: 8-4
The Hawkeyes are coming off a 10-4 season despite having an absolute terrible offense (ranked 94th). Iowa needs Spencer Petras to improve if they want to compete at the top of the Big Ten West. Defensively, the group brings eight starters back to a talented group from last year. The linebackers are all back including Jack Campbell. Overall, Iowa will be a tough out, but the lack of offense puts a cap on their ceiling.
Thank God It's Saturday 