TGIS NFL Week 1 Preview and Picks

By: Nick Radivoj

The long wait is finally over as the NFL season is back! NFL sits back and relaxes as the story lines unfold themselves with plenty of exciting Week 1 match ups. Hopefully you paid attention this offseason as there are several teams trotting out new starting QBs. Join us weekly as we breakdown the NFL slate and provide a best bet.

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)

When: 8:20 PM on 9/8

Line: Bills -2.5

O/U: 52

Week 1 of NFL football kicks off with what could have been a Super Bowl matchup last year as the Bills were just 13 seconds away from punching their ticket to the AFC championship game for a potential Super Bowl bid. These two teams provide a few of the most high-powered offenses in the NFL as this game is star studded with talent on both sides of the ball. QB Josh Allen is a top pick for this year’s MVP and for good reason. Although led by Allen, the Bills defense will be showing off a new piece from this offseason as Von Miller brings his talents over from the Rams as he helped them hoist the Lombardi trophy last year. Unfortunately, theBills will not have Tre’davious White for this game and will be tested with Triple Crown winner last year Cooper Kupp and a new shiny toy in Allen Robinson. Bills are set out to prove that they are this year’s favorites as they take a win back home to Buffalo.

The Play: Bills -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Detroit Lions (1-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Eagles -4

O/U: 48.5

After making the playoffs last year, the Eagles are everyone’s dark horse team to make even more noise as they added WR AJ Brown and several defensive pieces this offseason. A make it or break it type year for QB Jalen Hurts as he enters year 3 with a team set up for success. Eagles have one of the best rosters in football but shouldn’t overlook this Lions team as they always compete under HC Dan Campbell. Lions are still a year or so away from making loud noise and are a potential game changing QB away from contending in the NFC North moving forward. I like this game to have points and a lot of them.

The Play: Over 48.5

San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: 49ers -7

O/U: 41.5

There’s a new QB under center in San Francisco as Trey Lance takes the baton from Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance is set up for success as HC Kyle Shanahan led offenses are very QB friendly with offensive weapons everywhere on the field. Bears QB Justin Fields on the other hand has not been helped as much as his 2021 draft counterpart as they have one of the worst offensive lines in football along with few weapons for him to utilize on offense. Keep an eye out on the weather for this game as there seems to be rain out in the forecast but as long as the weather holds up I love the 49ers to take this one easily.

The Play: 49ers -7

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Bengals -6.5

O/U: 44.5

Mitchell Trubisky looks to take over for the Steelers under center as Big Ben finally sails off into the sunset. He is faced with a tough Week 1 opponent as the Bengals are coming off of a Super Bowl appearance. Are Super Bowl hangovers a real thing? This game will highlight plenty of offensive weapons on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati bolstered their offensive line this offseason and will be tested early and often as Defensive Player of the Year TJ Watt looks to build off of his 22.5 sacks last season. The over would normally be in play for me here but something about a division dog intrigues me. I expect the Bengals to win this one but for Pittsburgh to keep it close.

The Play: Steelers +6.5

New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Dolphins -3

O/U: 46.5

These aren’t your Miami Dolphins you’ve grown accustomed to as they brought in a load of talent to help Tua succeed in year 3. Miami welcomes in electric WR Tyreek Hill as he plans to earn the title Legion of Zoom for the team down in South Beach. On the other side, QB Mac Jones has not been helped as much this offseason as he lost his Offensive Coordinator and has no notable additions on offense besides former Dolphins WR Devante Parker. Miai will be without CB Byron Jones for the first 4 weeks of the season as he was placed on the PUP list but I don’t see New England having the weapons to exploit that loss. Dolphins HC Mike Mcdanielwill look to start his first year off on a high note with a home victory.

The Play: Dolphins -3

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Panthers -2.5

O/U: 41.5

A battle between the exes takes place in Carolina as former Browns QB Baker Mayfield looks to lead his new team against Cleveland. Cleveland will be without QB Deshaun Watson for this game as he suffered an 11 game suspension. Baker has said all of the right things in the media but we all know the chip he will be playing with on his shoulder come Sunday afternoon. I truly feel that Mayfield’s play took a hit last year as he was playing with a torn labrum and he is looking to bounce back along with RB Christian McCaffrey. Not a whole lot to dive into as I will always ride with Baker in a revenge narrative.

The Play: Panthers -2.5

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

When: 1 ET on 9/11

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 46.5

After a long career sporting a Falcons jersey, Matt Ryan will be wearing blue this year for Indy. Ryan is welcomed with a top offensive line, running back, and up and coming wide receiver in Michael Pittman. After missing the playoffs last year in a shameful Week 18 loss to the Jaguars, Indy will look to bounce back and potentially regain control of the AFC South. Their defense contains one of the best Front 7’s in football and will look to make some noise against second year QB Davis Mills. Houston is predicted to have one of the top picks in next year’s NFL Draft as they don’t have the roster yet to compete week in and week out. This Colts team will be too much for Davis Mills and company at home.

The Play: Colts -7

New Orleans Saints (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Saints -5.5

O/U: 42.5

Atlanta is projected to have a top pick in next year’s NFL Draft and with good reason but that doesn’t mean this game will be easy for the Saints. It always seems that Atlanta plays the Saints tight in almost every contest over the years no matter the talent gap. New Orleans will be playing their first game after HC Sean Payton announced his retirement last offseason. The Saints shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball down the field as Atlanta is lacking in talent besides CB AJ Terrell. Many will like New Orleans to cover here but I’m playing the over as the back door will sure to be alive and division dogs at home are never fun to play with.

The Play: Over 42.5

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 44.5

Jets QB Zach Wilson will have to wait to make his 2022 debut as he recovers from injury which means… Joe Flacco revenge game! Flacco demonstrated the ability to move the ball last year that even the young Wilson did not with this offense. Unfortunately for Joe, Baltimore is coming off a year missing the playoffs after an injury riddled season. Baltimore returns plenty of key starters along with QB Lamar Jackson who is playing in a contract year. New York is still a year or so away from making a leap to contender so give me Baltimore here in Week 1. Note: I would much rather play a 2 team teaser with Baltimore and Indy.

The Play: Ravens -7

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Washington Commanders (0-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/11

Line: Commanders -3

O/U: 44

The NFL really does a fantastic job with scheduling games with fun story lines attached to them. Commanders QB Carson Wentz was shipped out of Indy last year after failing to beat Jacksonville in Week 18 as a double digit favorite. Carson Wentz revenge game? I believe so. Wentz may be getting his final crack at being a starting QB in the NFL and has weapons to help him along the way in Scary Terry and 1st round pick Jahan Dotson. Jacksonville will sure to improve this year from the mere fact of their head coaching change going from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson. This game feels like it will be decided late but give me the home team to prevail in Week 1.

The Play: Commanders -3

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: Packers -1.5

O/U: 48

A new regime in town in Minnesota as they move on from HC Mike Zimmer and bring in Sean McVay’s understudy from Los Angeles, Kevin O’Connell. Green Bay will be without All Pro WR Devante Adams as he was traded to Las Vegas this offseason. Aaron Rodgers will be put to the test as he leads a core of young but talented wide receivers. I don’t often find myself betting against the back to back MVP and won’t find myself doing that here. Minnesota will surely start meshing into the season but don’t love the prospects of them hitting the ground running against this Green Bay defense.

The Play: Packers -1.5

New York Giants (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: -5.5

O/U: 43.5

Former Bills HC Brian Daboll takes over in New York as he looks to lead them back into meaningful games late into the year. Unfortunately, Daboll does not have the roster to start competing early in year 1 but look for this team to compete all season long. Always keep an eye out on teams with new head coaches to see if their team either quits on him or plays hard until the final whistle. Tennessee, on the other hand, has been a playoff contender in every year under HC Mike Vrabel and don’t be surprised to find them in that situation again as they look to bounce back from a tough playoff loss last year against Cincinnati. Derrick Henry returns from injury and sets his eyes on trying to get back to 2000 rushing yards. Titans win this game but spread seems too tight to play.

The Play: Over 43.5

Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 52

Justin Herbert and company watched on the sidelines in dismay as their playoff hopes faded away last year against the Raiders as Daniel Carlson kicked a game winning field goal to send them home. Redemption will be spelled LAC come Sunday afternoon as Herbert will lead this high explosive offense to a Week 1 win against their AFC West Rivals. Las Vegas will be running out not only a new head coach but offensive weapon as they acquired WR Devante Adams this offseason to reunite with his Fresno State QB Derek Carr. Las Vegas contains all the weapons to provide explosion on offense but I don’t see the weapons necessary to slow down Los Angeles over the course of 60 minutes. Over is in play here but backing Herbert instead.

The Play: Chargers -3

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/11

Line: Chiefs -4.5

O/U: 53.5

Be on the lookout for fireworks in Arizona as this game has the highest total on the slate this weekend. Both teams have young, exciting QBs under center in Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes. Each QB will be without their primary target from last year as Chief’s traded WR Tyreek Hill to Miami this offseason and Cardinals Deandre Hopkins will be serving a 6 game suspension. Kansas City utilized their 2 first round picks in last year’s NFL Draft by double dipping on the defensive side of the ball trying to provide stops so that their high-powered offense can have more opportunities to score. I will put my faith in former MVP Patrick Mahomes and future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid as opposed to a Cardinals team who fell apart down the stretch last year. 

The Play: Chiefs -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

When: 8:20 PM on 9/11

Line: Buccaneers -2

O/U: 50

The first Sunday of the NFL season will come to a close as last year’s first game takes center stage. I know that Tom Brady is invincible but at some point the decline has to take place. A weird offseason is an understatement for Tampa Bay as the following series of events took place: Tom Brady retires, Tom Brady unretires, HC Bruce Arians retires, and Tom Brady leaves training camp for over a week prior to season starting. These events alone are strange but all taking place with the same team seem even more odd. Brady logged over 700 pass attempts last year and most likely will near the 650 mark again as Tampa Bay loves to air it out on offense. Dallas has a rather boom or bust defense and combining that with Dallas’ ability to throw the ball downfield gives me an easy side for this one.

The Play: Over 50

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0

When: 8:15 PM on 9/12

Line: Broncos -6

O/U: 43

2022’s QB Carousel finally comes to an end with the final game of Week 1 showcasing Russel Wilson with his new team on the road against his former. We should see two totally different play styles Monday night as Denver will let Russ cook while Seattle will most likely try to control the ground game and play tough nosed defense. Denver provides Russ with all of the weapons he needs as he guns for his first MVP (vote) and another look at a deep playoff run. Seattle will sure to be rocking as the 12th man will play a factor but remember Russ isn’t a stranger in this stadium. He should have his team prepared for the noise and for their opponent as he’ll be sure to show off why Seattle should have never let him go.

The Play: Denver -6

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