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NFL

NFL Week 4 Preview

September 28, 2022 nickradivoj Leave a comment

By: Nick Radivoj

Week 3 was kind to us as we had an explosive 12-4 record on the week bringing our total on the year to 29-19. We can’t celebrate and rest on our loreals as we still have plenty of weeks in front of us and more work to do. A fun slate of games are in front of us so let’s find the value!

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/29

Line: Bengals -4

O/u: 47

Joe Burrow gets his Bengals team back on track as they get their first win of the season last weekend against the Jets. After their road victory, they welcome in the undefeated Miami Dolphins who are coming off of back-to-back games in which they took the lead late inside the 4^th quarter. This game surely favors the Bengals here on paper as the Dolphins must travel over 1000 miles on short rest after exerting themselves against both Baltimore and Buffalo. The defense is sure to be gassed as they were on the field for 90 plays and nearly 40 minutes against Buffalo. With that exhaustion, I believe Cincinnati will be able to put up scores and with an explosive offense of their own Miami will be in recovery mode to try to come from behind yet again. Bengals ultimately win this game, but we will see if they can cover from the sidelines.

The Play: Over 47

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (1-2)

When: 9:30 AM on 10/2 (London)

Line: Vikings -2.5

O/u: 44

Minnesota and New Orleans will kick off our first overseas game of the 2022 NFL Season as they are set to match up in London. Kirk Cousins gets redemption from his primetime flop against Philadelphia as he leads Minnesota to a late come from behind win over their division rival Detroit. Meanwhile, New Orleans is looking to bounce back after dropping two games in a row following their Week 1 heroics. Key notes to keep an eye out for are Saints WRs Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas as they both left last Sunday’s game at one point with injuries. New Orleanshas struggled in their first few game sto get the offense going early as majority of their points have come from second half scoring. It’s quite possible that trend ends here as Minnesota doesn’t bring one of the top defenses in the league to town but again neither did the Falcons or Panthers. I’m looking for their scoring draught to end for New Orleans while Minnesota unleashes star WR Justin Jefferson after he has been relatively quiet since his Week 1 explosion.

The Play: Over 44

Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Browns -1.5

O/u: 49.5

Atlanta has been a nice surprise to start off this year as they finally get their first win last weekend against Seattle. Although it was their first win, Atlanta has been in both of their first 2 games with the Saints and Rams. Cleveland is coming to Atlanta on the road after long rest as they played division rival Pittsburgh in the past Thursday night game. In Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable in the first 3 games this season as Cleveland waits patiently for Deshaun Watson’s suspension to run its course. The script is laid out for us as we know Cleveland will utilize their two top running backs and limit the opportunity for Brissett to lose the game. I expect Cleveland to control the clock with their run game and for Atlanta’s offense to come back to Earth as this one stays under.

The Play: Under 49.5

Washington Commanders (1-2) at Dalls Cowboys (???

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Cowboys -3

O/u: 41.5

Dallas has survived their first 2 games without QB Dak Prescott as they’ve won 2 in a row behind backup Cooper Rush. Meanwhile, Washington has dropped 2 in a row after their home win against the Jaguars in Week 1. Carson Wentz and the Commanders offense have looked half asleep in their past two games as the offense has done little to nothing in the first halves and only putting up points in garbage time when the games are all but done. Maybe, just maybe, Washington can get their offense back on track here if they are able to protect Wentz and with Washington’s defense often resembling Swisss cheese I will begrudgingly play the over.

The Play: Over 41.5

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Lions -4.5

O/u: 50

This Detroit Lions team is exciting to watch as they provide explosive plays across the field everywhere on offense. They are a fun team but a young team as well as they need to work on closing out games as we saw them last week lose a lead late to division rival Minnesota. Seattle also comes in looking for their second win on the year as they drop back-to-back games after beating their ex-QB Russel Wilson in Week 1. As seen by the previous weeks, I usually love playing over in Detroit games as they provide explosion on offense and a defense that can be scored on. My intention here earlier in the week was to take Seattle with the 6 points but as the health of Lions offensive weapons have come into question the line has dropped a point and a half. Losing value in playing Seattle, I now am playing the under with less offensive weapons for Goff to utilize and a Seattle team that would rather play slow than have a shootout.

The Play: Under 50

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Colts -3

O/u: 42.5

These 2 division rivals finally secured their first win of the season last week. Both Tennesee and Indianapolis were the front runners to win their division earlier this summer but have looked far from a team destined to make a playoff run. It seemed that Tennessee was able to get their offense back on track last week while Indy managed to squeak out a victory by capitalizing on turnovers against the Chiefs. Prior to the season, I expected these division foes to split their head-to-head matchup against one another and still feel like that will be the outcome. With the line seeming right on point, I turn my attention to the total and see value in playing the over here as Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry finally show the NFL why they are the two best in the game.

The Play: Over 42.5

Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants ((((

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Giants -3

O/U: 39

Go ahead and pinch yourself because no you aren’t dreaming as the records are accurate here with both teams coming in with a 2-1 record. New York has impressed me so far this year while the Bears have won off poor weather conditions and playing a bad Texans team. Unfortunately, Giants lost Sterling Shephard for the season as he tore his ACL in Monday’s contest against the Cowboys. DaDaniel Jones should have more time to get his playmakers the ball as Chicago doesn’t have nearly the pass rushers that Dallas has. Justin Fields has started the year off with 2 wins in 3 games but still doesn’t look like the once highly touted prospect that he was. A sloppy game that I gladly won’t have on my tv.

The Play: Giants -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Eagles -6.5

O/u: 48

Doug Pederson revenge game? The revenge game theory didn’t work as well last week as Carson Wentz most likely needs to check his boxers after that performance but I have more faith in Dougie P! He has impressed us with how the Jagshave played so far this season who currently own sole possession of the ARC South. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles look like juggernauts as their past 2 games have essentially been over mid-way through the 3^rd quarter. I expect more of the same for both teams as Hurts will lead the Eagles offense to multiple scoring drives with Trevor Lawrence not lagging far behind. Points won’t be at a premium in this one as Philly fans finally get a fun game on the way.

The Play: Over 48

New York Jets (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Steelers -3.5

O/u: 40.5

No analysis on this one these are two bad teams that I’m excited to not have on screen here. Zach Wilson is set to return Sunday but don’t cheer yet as that may not be a good thing. This will be my shortest write up to date and probably all season but go Steelers.

The Play: Steelers -3.5

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Bills -3.5

O/u: 51.5

This game will feature a match up between what should be the top leaders currently in the MVP race. Buffalo comes off their first loss this season and share a commonality with Baltimore as both teams suffered their sole loss to the Miami Dolphins. Baltimore’s defense does not look like the defense as old as they have been susceptible to big plays over the past few weeks and that recipe is not one for success as you welcome in an explosive Josh Allen offense. Buffalo’s secondary has been pretty banged up as of late as they were without both of their starting safeties last week and still await for Tre’Davious White’s return from the IR. I trust Josh Allen to get his offense back on track after only scoring 17 points on over 90 plays and combine that with how Lamar Jackson has showcased this season leads us to an easy conclusion.

The Play: over 51.5

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-1-1)

When: 1 PM on 10/2

Line: Chargers -5

O/u: 44

Chargers have caught the injury bug and they caught it bad as they lose their LT for the rest of the season. Justin Herbert is already a tad banged up himself so losing his blind side protector is something to note. They should be getting Keenan Allen back this week and have playmakers throughout the offense and defense. HC Brandon Staley needs to get back a Chargers team on track that had playoff aspirations to start the year. Luckily, they face a Houston team that has looked more like a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft after their Week 1 contest against the Colts. Davis Mills doesn’t look like the long term solution and if the Chargers have playoff hopes they will handle this one and handle it easily.

The Play: Chargers -5

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

When: 4:05 PM on 10/2

Line: Panthers -1.5

O/u: 42.5

This will be an ugly play here is I go with the over but stay with me here. Under totals are cashing at an all-time percentage throughout the first few weeks of the NFL season and that percentage is bound to regress towards the mean. I think Week 4 is the week that you will be taking over tickets to the window. Baker Mayfield should be able to take advantage of this poor Cardinals secondary as long as he remembers that he has an explosive weapon in DJ Moore. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the best road teams as underdogs since Kyler has taken over behind center. A final of 24-20 gets us to the window.

The Play: Over 42.5

New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 10/2

Line: Packers -10

O/u: 40.5

What used to be an exciting match up featuring Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers has now lost even ore juice as second year QB Mac Jones looks to be out with injury for several weeks suffering an injury in last Sunday’s loss against the Ravens. Backup QB Brian Hoyer should be filling in for the injured Mac Jones and isn’t welcomed to the starting lineup with a plethora of weapons as New England’s offense has looked subpar to say the least to start this year. Green Bay has gone under the total in all 3 games so far this year while New England has gone to the window with 2 under totals snd with how these teams are designed to play another under is in the cards. New England will surely throw the kitchen sink at back to back MVP Aaron Rodgers in an attempt to slow their offense down and New England’s offense doesn’t look to threatening to a much improved Green Bay defense.

The Play: Under 40.5

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)

When: 4:25 PM on 10/2

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/u: 45.5

I wouldn’t let the record fool you as Denver has looked far from a winning team so far. Russ and the offense seem to be out of sorts through the first 3 weeks of the season as their punter was getting more work in their win against San Francisco than their kicker. Las Vegas is truly the key to this game as they come in still looking for their first win under their new head coach. Falling to 0-4 on the season for a team that made the playoffs last year and looking to improve on that would be rather disastrous. This game can easily determine how this game goes for Las Vegas as they can either right the ship or call in the season early as it’s an uphill climb to make a postseason push after starting off 0-4. Give me Raiders or get ready to start hearing the fire McDaniels chants in Vegas.

The Play: Raiders -2

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

When: 8:20 PM on 10/2

Line: Chiefs -2

O/u: 45

Finally, an exciting matchup to look forward to on Sunday Night Football as we get a Super Bowl rematch with Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Both teams still have their QBs under center, but the teams look a tad different this year as Mahomes lost one of his explosive weapons to South Beach this year in Tyreek Hill and the once best offensive line in football in front of Tom Brady has become familiar with the injury bug. Both teams are coming off a loss and with historical information I love trusting Big Red (Andy Reid) off of a bye or coming off of a loss. There’s a chance this game does not end up taking place in Tampa Bay because of Hurricane Ian and if that happens that eliminates any home field advantage the Bucs would have in this one. Welcome the Chiefs back into the winners circle after this contest.

The Play: Chiefs -2

Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)

When: 8:15 PM on 10/3

Line: 49ers -2.5

O/u: 42

San Francisco looks out of sorts this year on offense as the team hasn’t scored over 17 in 2 out of their first 3 games to start the season. Facing off a Super Bowl winner from last year in the Rams may not be the best formula for success but in the past few years Kyle Shanahan and company have owned the Rams in the regular season. I look for the offense to get back on track a little bit with Deebo Samuel finally getting himself in the endzone. I projected these teams to split games during the season with each winning their home contest so with 49ers having the home field advantage I will be riding with the team in San Fran.

The Play: 49ers -2.5

NFL

NFL Week 3 Preview

September 21, 2022 nickradivoj Leave a comment

By: Nick Radivoj

An unfortunate wash of a weekend in Week 2 as I finish with an average 8-8 record across the board bringing the season total to 17-15 (still up!). This NFL Week 3 slate seems a lot tougher to dissect so join me as we maneuver our way through the board to pick out the best bet from each game!

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/22

Line: Browns -4.5

O/u: 38.5

A pair of division rivals are set to face off Thursday night to jump start us into Week 3 of NFL action. This Steelers team will look different than the last time Cleveland faced them as they will be missing their defensive star TJ Watt to injury and Hall of Fame QB Big Ben to retirement. The Jacoby Brissett experience has been a roller coaster to start the season as Cleveland finds themselves at .500 currently but could easily be both defeated and undefeated. Pittsburgh’s offense is still pedestrian from last year as OC Matt Canada’s offense refuses to take deep shots down the field but rather play in a 5 yard box away from the line of scrimmage. I rarely encourage taking the under in low totals but with Mitch Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett at the helm I don’t see any other way.

The Play: Under 38.5

Houston Texans (0-1-1) at Chicago Bears (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Bears -2.5

O/u: 40.5

Two quarterbacks from the 2021 NFL Draft are set to face off for the first time in Davis Mills and Justin Fields. Both teams are projected to have a high pick in next year’s draft but both have been a nice surprise to start this year as Houston has been in both of their first two games and Chicago started off the year with an underdog win. Chicago may be rebuilding but they really need to see what they have in QB Justin Fields as throwing the ball 14 times per game isn’t the best way to evaluate what you have in him. On the other hand, Davis Mills has led Houston down the wire in both of their games but unable to seal the victory come closing time. Cheers to hoping the Bears open their playbook and Houston continues to move the ball down the field. I’m a happy camper to not be tuning into this game on Sunday.

The Play: Over 40.5

Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/u: 45.5

Titans HC Mike Vrabel looked absolutely disgusted on the sideline Monday night as Tennessee was pummeled by Buffalo by 34. After losing their home opener on a missed game winning field goal, Tennessee comes back home in an attempt to find their first win of the season welcoming in the also defeated Raiders. Las Vegas was on their way to securing their first win last week but blew a 20-0 lead as Kyler Murray brought back Arizona for their first win. Titans OT Taylor Lewan left Monday’s game early with an injury and will be a player to keep an eye out for as Tennessee will be tasked with keeping their QB upright against Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. Although Monday’s loss left an incredibly poor taste in my mouth, I will keep faith in Mike Vrabel to right the ship here at home with the points.

The Play: Titans +2.5

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Chiefs -6.5

O/u: 49.5

The Colts come into this game still defeated on the year as they are unable to get the monkey off their back losing yet again to Jacksonville in Florida. Keep an eye out for injury updates on Colts WR Michael Pittman as he was unable to play last week and without him Indy is unable to move the ball downfield. Kansas City comes on the road undefeated after an exciting home win Thursday night against the Chargers. The key to beating any star QB is to limit the amount of possessions that team gets and insert variance into the mix hoping for a turnover or two. Indy will lean on the back of their star running back in order to win the time of possession battle and maybe, just maybe, sneak out a win. Colts plus the points is in play here but rather play the under with slow methodical drives sure to come.

The Play: Under 49.5

Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Bills -5.5

O/u: 53.5

Buffalo looks every bit the Super Bowl favorite as they crush the Titans 41-7 in their home opener. As a Dolphins fan, I truly won’t believe they can beat the Bills until they finally do as this team has owned Miami for the past several years. Bills offseason signee Von Miller has seemed to transform their defensive front 7 as they have caused havoc in both games thus far and will be the biggest test for Miami’s new look offensive line. Miami showed off their new offense this past week as they managed to come back down 3 touchdowns in the 4^th quarter to overcome Baltimore. Tua had the game of his short career as he threw for over 450 yards and 6 TDs but will need to build off this game as he welcomes Josh Allen and the undefeated Bills. I’m unable to back Miami until they prove it but that doesn’t mean I’m going against them so with too much offensive talent on display give me points and give me a lot of them.

The Play: Over 53.5

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Vikings -6

O/u: 53.5

Minnesota’s offense took a major step back after their Week 1 performance as they looked lost in Philadelphia Monday night. Kirk Cousins looked every bit Primetime Kirk as he continuously threw up turnover worthy balls into the Philadelphia night. Luckily, Minnesota will welcome in a Lions team that has yet to allow less than 27 points in a game thus far. Their defense may be a work in progress, but their offense has been explosive as Detroit has put up over 35 points in each game to start the season. I expect Minnesota’s offense to get back on track behind Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook this week while Detroit will continue providing explosive plays on their side of the ball.

The Play: Over 53.5

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Ravens -3

O/u: 43

Baltimore comes to New England with a poor taste in their mouth as they let up a 3-touchdown lead in a losing battle against the Dolphins this past Sunday. Lamar Jackson looks like a man looking for a new contract as he was nearly perfect in this game throwing for 3 TDs while adding another one on the ground against Miami. New England was able to find themselves in the win column for the first time this year as they managed to defeat another AFC North team in the Steelers. Although they managed to secure the win, New England’s offense has yet to pop off this year under second year QB Mac Jones which may not be the biggest surprise as the team did little to surround him with weapons this offseason. Baltimore’s defense can’t look any worse after allowing 35 second half points, can they? With minimal weapons on the offensive side of the ball and with running QBs often giving their defense mishaps I don’t love New England in this spot at home.

The Play: Ravens -3

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Bengals -4.5

O/u: 45.5

Super Bowl hangover? Cincinnati looks like a far cry from the team that played in last year’s Super Bowl as they start this year 0-2 and losing to a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys team. Zac Taylor could have easily found himself on the hot seat were it not for Cincinnati’s Super Bowl run last year. Joe Burrow has looked terrified this year running for his life from both TJ Watt and Micah Parsons in his first two games behind what was supposed to be one of the best revamped offensive lines in the league. Disappointed after their second loss, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase seemed to have choice words calling out their offense. Meanwhile, New York logged their first win of the season last week in a thrilling 13-point comeback in the final 2 minutes of the game. Despite the slow start, Cincinnati will need a commanding victory this week if they have any aspirations this year for another deep playoff run.

The Play: Bengals -4.5

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Washington Commanders (1-1)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Line: Eagles -6.5

O/u: 47

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles looked impressive on Monday night as they begin their season off 2-0. The Carson Wentz experience in Washington hasn’t been a horrendous start this year as the offense has put up over 24 points in both of their games to start the season. This game will display good against good as Washington’s defensive line will battle Philadelphia’s offensive line in the trenches. Commanders’ defense has been slightly overrated to start the year but if they are able to contain and get pressure on Jalen Hurts with their front 4 anything is possible. Carson Wentz will be looking for redemption against the team that gave up on him as the division dog is alive at home to take this one outright.

The Play: Commanders +6.5

New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

When: 1 PM on 9/25

Saints -3

O/u: 41

A few different bounces of the ball and Carolina could see themselves as undefeated as opposed to defeated entering this game. The Baker Mayfield led Panthers have looked rather sloppy thus far on offense while the defense, for the most part, has held their own. They welcome in Jameis Winston and the Saints at home as they also look to bounce back after a loss to Tom Brady last weekend. Two major factors in this game to keep an eye out for is if Saints RB Alvin Kamara will play and this game and second is if Jekyll or Hide will be playing QB for New Orleans this week. How New Orleans looks heavily correlates with whether Jameis takes care of the ball or not. If Brian Burns and company can create some short fields off turnovers for the offense then the Panthers can secure their first win this season. One thing is for certain and that is we need more characters like Jameis in the NFL as he gets me excited to watch him on the field and listen to his pressers postgame as well.

The Play: Panthers +3

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

When: 4:05 PM on 9/25

Line: Chargers -7

O/u: 48

Everything in my normal process tells me to lay the points with the Chargers here as the Jaguars are coming across country and 3 time zones to play in this one, but with the way Trevor Lawrence looked in Week 2 I can’t resist in backing this Jacksonville team. Under new regime, Jacksonville looks more composed and more confident out on the field as they are filled with young talent across the field. Keynote to look out for is the health of Justin Herbert as he injured his rib in Los Angeles’ loss last Thursday to Kansas City. If Jaguars do arrive in LA as expected then this game could also lead us to a shootout with the over as a good play as well but give me the young, tough Jaguars here instead.

The Play: Jaguars +7

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/25

Line: Rams -3.5

O/u: 49

The Rams have not looked like the Super Bowl winner from last year as they lose handedly to Buffalo Week 1 and sneak out of LA with a win against the Falcons that should have been a whole lot easier than it was. Los Angeles was up 28-3 with little time remaining in the 3^rd quarter but as soon as you look back Atlanta has the ball with a chance to win it at the end. Rams have yet to cover a game this season but that comes to a screeching halt here as Sean Mcvay has owned the Cardinals since he took over as HC for the Rams. Kyler Murray was able to pull off a miraculous comeback last weekend against the Raiders, but his heroics may not be enough this time as he isn’t left with many offensive weapons with Deandre Hopkins suspension and Arizona’s defense often resembling Swiss cheese.

The Play: Rams -3.5

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)

When: 4:25 PM on 9/25

Line: Seahawks -2

O/u: 42

Atlanta has surprised many this year as they have come out in both games and nearly stolen a win against 2 quality teams in the Saints and Rams. Atlanta has been able to move the ball on offense behind first round WR Drake London and with former 1^st round pick Kyle Pitts sure to get in the mix soon this offense has the capability to be tough to stop. Meanwhile, Seattle forgot to show up playing the 49ers this week as they looked like a completely different team that played Denver the week prior. Offense seems rather uncapable of creating explosive plays with the unwillingness to throw the ball downfield to star WR DK Metcalf. Definitely not one of the top games I’m looking forward to this weekend, but Atlanta finds themselves in the winners circle for the first time this year.

The Play: Falcons +2

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)

When: 4:25 on 9/25

Line: Buccaneers -2

O/U: 41

Much of this game has lost its spark as Tampa Bay will be without many of their key offensive weapons with Mike Evans facing a suspension and Chris Godwin likely out with injury. Aaron Rodgers got the Packers back on track Sunday night as the offense was proficient with the defense stepping up making plays left and right. I wold normally love playing an over as low as this with Rodgers and Brady set to face each other but with both of these defenses being stout units and Tampa missing offensive players I don’t think it’s a smart play here. Rather, I will take the 2 points given to the team up in Greeen Bay as they continue to build off of their win against Chicago.

The Play: Packers +2

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

When: 8:20 on 9/25

Line: 49ers -1.5

O/u: 41.5

After losing their starting running back in Week 1, 49ers have the injury bug strike yet again as they lose QB Trey Lance for the rest of the season. Luckily. San Francisco still has last year’s starter Jimmy Garoppolo on the team as he slides back into the starting role. Offense shouldn’t miss a beat with Jimmy behind center as he has been the starter for the past couple years. This 49ers defense is also familiar with their opposing QB as they have faced Russel Wilson for the majority of his career when he was sporting Seahawks colors. 49ers have one of the best defensive lines in football and with a few offensive playmakers missing for Denver I see a slow day moving the ball for Russ. The altitude will surely play a factor on a California based team and with that combined with the 49ers defensive prowess I’m taking the under.

The Play: Under 45

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at New York Giants (2-0)

When: 8:15 PM on 9/26

Line: Giants -2.5

O/u: 39.5

No Dak Prescott? No problem. The Cowboys find themselves in the winners’ circle for the first time this year after taking down Cincinnati at home. The key to that win was playing mistake free football and leaning on the back of the defense and elite pass rusher Micah Parsons. Dallas is trying to scratch and claw their way to any win they can get to keep their young season alive while awaiting on Dak to return from an injury suffered in Week 1. Meanwhile, the Giants find themselves in unknown territory as they start their season off 2-0 under their new regime. I see this game playing out a lot likeDallas’ prior game with defense causing chaos and forcing Daniel Jones to turn the ball over. Under may be the right play here but I can’t find myself on the side of two under below 40 this week.

The Play: Cowboys +2.5

NFL Fantasy

NFL Fantasy Wide Receiver Review

August 28, 2014 Tyler Vesely Leave a comment

Calvin Johnson

Johnson is the clear number one fantasy wide receiver in the NFL. He has the most talent and production out of anyone at the wide receiver position to put up high fantasy numbers. Last year he had almost 1500 yards and 12 touchdown, and he wasn’t even fully healthy. Expect big numbers from Megatron this year and don’t be afraid to use a late first round pick on him.

A.J. Green

You could go either way between A.J. Green and Demaryius Thomas. Green is my second rated wide receiver because he is the most targeted wide receiver in the NFL. He is a constant target for Dalton and a very good deep threat. He will have a few down week due to the inconsistency of Dalton, but expect another monster year for Green.

Demaryius Thomas

Thomas had a huge breakout year with Manning’s record breaking year. He finished second in the NFL in receiver fantasy points with over 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns. The question will be how much of a drop off Manning will have from his record breaking year. I don’t believe he will have the same production he did last year as he has two talented receivers around him in Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker along with decreased numbers from Manning. He will however finish in the top five in fantasy points out of receivers and have another great year with Peyton as his quarterback.

Julio Jones

Julio Jones was off to a monstrous start to the 2013 season before he got hurt and had to miss the final 11 games. Jones was on pace to be the top fantasy wide receiver last year and would have helped a sluggish Atlanta offense. Julio Jones does have injury concerns as he has struggled to stay on the field all 16 games. Expect a bounce back year for Julio though and be one of the top wide receivers in fantasy.

Dez Bryant

Bryant had a great year finishing 7^th in fantasy points, and second in touchdowns with 13. He remains Romo’s favorite target, especially in the red zone. Bryant sometimes disappears in the Dallas offense with seven games of single digit fantasy production. Bryant will have to become a little more consistent in the Dallas offense to become an elite wide receiver. However, his talent is there to have another great fantasy year with Romo and the Dallas offense.

Brandon Marshall

Marshall has been a tremendous wide receiver for the Chicago Bears the past two years. He has finished as a top five wide receiver in that time and a combined 25 touchdowns. He is a great red zone target and should continue being a very productive wide receiver. A possible negative could be Alshon Jeffery taking away some of his production, but I think the difference will be minor and both will flourish. Under Marc Trestman’s offense expect another great year for Brandon Marshall.

Jordy Nelson

Jordy has been Aaron Rodgers top wide receiver for the past few seasons and has been extremely productive. What hurt his production last year was the absence of Aaron Rodgers for half of the season. Although with the numbers Jordy put up when Rodgers played the entire game, he was projected for the season to finish as a top three wide receiver. That is elite production over names like Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green and Dez Bryant. Jordy Nelson is a solid wide receiver who should see a spike in production with Green Bay going to the hurry up offense and Aaron Rodgers being back. You can take Jordy Nelson and know you are getting a legitimate number one wide receiver.

Antonio Brown

Brown enjoyed an incredible breakout year with 110 catches and almost 1500 yards, almost doubling his production from the year before. He continues this year as the number one wide receiver for Ben Roethlisberger as he will try to replicate last year’s production. Emmanuel Sanders is also gone this year so look for his targets to possibly even increase. Brown is definitely a number one receiver this year despite not having the big name.

Alshon Jeffery

After a disappointing rookie season, Alshon Jeffery
had a breakout year finishing in the top ten in fantasy points for wide receivers. He has fit well in Marc Trestman’s offense stretching the field as a deep threat and shows a great ability to go up for jump balls. He will also explode for a great game every once in a while as he had over 200 yards twice last year. Still, Jeffery is not the top wide receiver on his, team so that hurts him a little in production. However, expect another good year from Alshon Jeffery and you can trust him as a good number one wide receiver.

10. Randall Cobb

Last year was supposed to be Cobb’s breakout year, however that ended quickly after his injury five games into the season. He had a few productive games going over 100 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers and the Redskins. In a contract year, look for this to be Cobb’s breakout year. He should get a lot of receptions running out of the slot and with Green Bay’s new hurry up offense. The downside is he could fail to produce up to number one wide receiver standards that we’ve come to expect from him. Take him as a fringe number one wide receiver as a guy with elite upside.

11. Vincent Jackson

The wide receiver position starts to dip a little bit right here with Vincent Jackson. Jackson has all the tools of a number one fantasy receiver, but his situation and consistency makes him a fringe number one wide receiver. He was incredibly inconsistent last year having three over 20 point games, but also having five games scoring 3 points or less. A lot of that has to do with the quarterback. Picking Vincent Jackson comes with a lot of risk, but the upside is there if there quarterback Josh McCown can be productive and reliable.

12. Andre Johnson

Johnson is still a very productive wide receiver despite not having a reliable quarterback and entering his 12^th season in the NFL. Andre Johnson remains a very good wide receiver and the clear number one for the Texans. However, he put up a lot of inconsistent weeks due to lackluster quarterback play. Now the Texans have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, but it is still up in the air how productive they can be together. That will be the risk when taking Johnson and whether he can be consistent week in and week out.

13. Keenan Allen

Keenan Allen had a very good rookie year becoming one of Phillip Rivers’s favorite targets. Look for Allen to take another step towards being a top ten wide receiver in his second year. He must become a bigger part of the offense though if he wants to become a number one wide receiver. Out of the top twenty fantasy wide receivers last year, Keenan Allen had the least amount of targets. Hopefully Keenan Allen can build off of last year’s rookie season and become a reliable fantasy wide receiver.

14. Pierre Garcon

Only one player last year had at least five catches ever single game last year. No it wasn’t A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas or Megatron… it was Pierre Garcon. Garcon is highly underrated in fantasy football as a consistant weekly option. He won’t put any 2-3 point dud weeks as he his always in the game plan. He isn’t a deep threat, but he can be very successful with the number of receptions he gets. Look for the addition of Desean Jackson to help Pierre Garcon get open and more receiving yards. He should be looked at as a top 15 wide receiver and a top 10 wide receiver in PPR leagues.

15. Desean Jackson

Desean Jackson is a very good deep threat at the wide receiver position for the Redskins. This is a weapon that Robert Griffin III has not had during his NFL career. If RGIII can get back to his rookie form, look for Desean Jackson to have a great year. The risk with Desean Jackson is that he and RGIII do not have the deep threat chemistry and he struggles. It is a major risk/reward with Desean Jackson because he did finish as a top ten wide receiver last year. However, RGIII reliability is still in question which would make Desean Jackson inconsistent if the quarterback struggles.

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NFL Fantasy QB Review

August 21, 2014 Tyler Vesely Leave a comment

1. Peyton Manning
Expect another great season from him. I don’t think he can repeat last season’s numbers, but has the offensive weapons to be the top quarterback again. He has Emmanuel Sanders now who was very productive in Pittsburgh. He joins Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas as quality pass catchers in Denver. In terms of where to pick him, I’d say lower first round. I’m not passing on an elite fantasy running back for him. The only exception may be if your league counts passing touchdowns as 6 points, then he has the ability to win your league for him and should be chosen top 5.

2. Aaron Rodgers
Before he got hurt he was on track to be right there with the top quarterbacks in fantasy. He is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and continues to put up great stats. With great wide receivers in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb there’s no question he can still put up his 2011 NFL MVP season. He has the talent to be right up there with Peyton Manning so getting him in the second round instead of investing a first round pick is a good spot for him.

3. Drew Brees
The last three seasons Drew Brees has posted at least 5,000 yards and 39 touchdowns. It is more likely he will continue putting up these types of stats under Sean Payton’s offense and with Jimmy Graham as his top target. Along with Graham, he has decent receivers in Marques Colston, Kenny Stills, Robert Meachum and newcomer Brandin Cooks. Brees is an elite fantasy quarterback worthy of a pick in the second round.

4. Matthew Stafford
We are out of the elite category now, but Stafford really is not a bad option as a starting fantasy quarterback. He was given some new weapons this off season in Golden Tate and Eric Ebron who should help take some of the pressure off Calvin Johnson. Stafford throws as much as anyone in the league and is always a candidate to put up huge yards. He does however have a few occasional bad games where he forces the ball and throws a high amount of interceptions. This is evident from the last four games of the year finishing with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. There is a defiant buyer beware on Stafford and is in that second tier group of fantasy quarterbacks. He does have a ton of upside given his 2011 season with over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns.

5. Andrew Luck
Can Andrew Luck make a leap into being an elite fantasy quarterback? The signs look good heading into his third season as the starter for the Colts. Last year he finished fourth out of fantasy quarterbacks even without his top wide receiver, Reggie Wayne, for half the year. This year he has a young emerging wide receiving core around him to help him become a very good fantasy starter. A concern is whether he can get his passing touchdowns up from just 23 last year. I don’t think he becomes elite, but he is a very consistent starter week to week.

6. Cam Newton
Cam Newton had a great fantasy year last year finishing third among quarterbacks in fantasy points. Part of this came due to him putting the most points out of any quarterback on the ground with 585 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. So why did I drop him in this year’s fantasy rankings? Look around at his supporting cast. Last year he had an alright wide receiving core with Steve Smith, Brandon Lafell and Ted Ginn. Now not one of those wide receivers is still with the team, and the projected starters are Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and rookie Kelvin Benjamin. The Panthers do have a good tight end in Greg Olsen, but this cast will make it tough for Cam to be productive. If you want an example, look what a bad supporting cast did to Tom Brady’s numbers last year. It is a huge question mark what kind of numbers Cam can put up, but his talent gives him top 5 fantasy quarterback potential.

7. Nick Foles
One of the riskier picks of this year’s fantasy draft is Foles. Nick Foles broke out in 2014 second half of the year and was definitely a present if you were lucky to pick him off the waiver wire. With such a small sampling though the obvious concern is if he can keep that production up. That’s not the only concern… there is also the loss of Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin’s health is still up in question. However, 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in a little over half a season is tough to ignore. He was even more productive than Peyton Manning the second half of the year. The upside is top three fantasy quarterback, the downside is he doesn’t have the weapons to produce the same stats and he’s a fringe fantasy starter. I personally expect Foles to continue producing and end up a solid fantasy starter in Chip Kelly’s offense.

8. Russell Wilson
Wilson is an extremely talented quarterback through the air and on the ground. He finished last year as the 8th highest scoring fantasy quarterback and that’s where I put him in my rankings. The problem with Russell Wilson actually has nothing to do with him, the Seahawks do not throw the ball very often as he has one of the least pass attempts in the league. With Wilson you do get a consistent performer who will throw a couple touchdowns a game and get yards on the ground. If the Seahawks decide to open it up a little more in his third season as the starter, Wilson will have some serious fantasy potential. However, if they stay with the same type of play calling look for him to produce the same numbers and be limited in his fantasy production.

9. Colin Kaepernick
Kapernick could be set for a big year in fantasy after getting a new contract this off season. He has Michael Crabtree healthy, Anquan Boldin back for another season and the 49ers acquired Steve Johnson this off season. Not to mention he has one of the top tight ends in the game in Vernon Davis. Kaepernick had a nice end of the year after a slow start and finished with the 9th most fantasy points out of the quarterbacks. With Kaepernick you’ll have to take the good with the bad as he is a little inconsistent. However if he plays like he did from week 11 to the end of the season last year, you will have yourself a top five fantasy quarterback.

10. Matt Ryan
Last year was a tough year for Matt Ryan. You had a shaky offensive line, the loss of Julio Jones, the injury problems of Roddy White and a lack of a running game without Steven Jackson. If you look at Matt Ryan’s production when he did have Julio Jones, he was one of the top quarterbacks around. After he lost Julio Jones, his stats became a little inconsistent. He did put up similar yardage to his great 2012 season, but the touchdowns were down. Expect a comeback year with Matt Ryan and his touchdowns to increase with his offensive weapons back.

11. Tony Romo
Tony Romo gets quite a bit of criticism and some of it is deserved, but when it comes to fantasy football he’s a starter. The problem is many people transfer this criticism over to fantasy football and he goes lower than he is supposed to. The past three seasons, Romo has finished as a top ten fantasy quarterback. He also has a top wide receiver target in Dez Bryant, a very good safety net in Jason Witten, and a running game with Demarco Murray. Not to mention a poor defense that will require the Cowboys to win by throwing and scoring a lot of points. The only question mark I see with Romo that could cause him to fall out of the top ten fantasy quarterback producers is his health and age. After back surgery this off season and turning 34 it is only a matter of time before Romo’s stats start to decline. For right now, Romo is a low end fantasy starter.

12. Tom Brady
It may surprise you how low I have Tom Brady, but let me explain. First let’s start with the Patriots, there is a clear lack of quality wide receivers on the roster. Danny Amendola can’t stay healthy, Julian Edelman is not a number one wide receiver and the rest of the wide receivers are way too young and inexperienced to be counted on. Gronkowski is great, but he hasn’t made it through an entire season since 2011. Now let’s move on to Tom Brady himself. Since 2011 Tom Brady’s yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and quarterback rating have declined each year. He’s not getting any younger either at 36. Point is Tom Brady is not the elite fantasy quarterback that he used to be. That being said he is still a very good quarterback who will give you about the same numbers he put up last year where he finished 13th for fantasy quarterbacks and possibly a little bit higher if Gronk stays healthy all year. Buyer beware though, he’s getting older and someone in your draft will take him higher just off name recognition. If you pick him know you are getting a lower end fantasy starter.

13. Phillip Rivers
Phillip Rivers had a breakout this past year, finishing 6th in points for quarterbacks. Part of the reason for this boom in production is the emergence of Keenan Allen. Along with Keenan Allen, the tight end play has been outstanding with ready to breakout star Ladarius Green and of course the all-time great Antonio Gates. Phillip Rivers has continued to limit his interceptions while increasing his touchdown production. The risk is that the year before he was the 21st fantasy quarterback. So was last year’s breakout year just a fluke or has Phillip Rivers turned it around and ready to be a weekly fantasy starter.

14. Robert Griffin III
Fantasy owners that drafted RGIII had to be disappointed. He had his fair share of quality games, but overall a disappointing season with just 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He will have a chance to turn it around with Desean Jackson coming from Philadelphia and Pierre Garcon returning. He will also have Jordan Reed coming back from injury which should give him a good tight end option. However, it is tough to trust his health and whether he will get back to rookie form. He takes a few too many hits and relies on his legs too often. There is a chance he can come back and be a top ten quarterback again with new deep threat Desean Jackson, but I’d much rather spend a high pick on a quarterback that is going to be consistent and healthy.

15. Jay Cutler
As far as fantasy production goes, Jay Cutler is actually pretty consistent. In every game that Jay Cutler finished, he had at least one touchdown and double digit fantasy points. He did struggle to stay healthy, but was having a very good year outside of that. Part of the reason is his offensive weapons and a very improved offensive line. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall may be the best 1-2 punch at the wide receiver position. They also have a good red zone target with tight end Martellus Bennett. Jay Cutler has the potential to be a top ten fantasy quarterback with the offensive weapons around him and his strong arm. It is just a question if he can be consistent all season and stay healthy. He has never played a full 16 game season in Chicago or thrown for over 27 touchdowns. This could be the year he breaks out.

16. Ben Roethlisberger
For being 16th on this list, Ben Roethlisberger really is a great top end backup option. He finished 12th in fantasy points last year and was very consistent almost the entire year. He had a pretty good year with new number one wide receiver Antonio Brown. However, this off season he lost his number two wide receiver in Emmanual Sanders. If he can continue off last season where he stayed healthy and threw the most touchdowns for him since 2007, you should have yourself a very good backup or fringe fantasy starter.

17. Andy Dalton
Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and… Andy Dalton? Yes that’s right, Andy Dalton finished as the fifth highest scoring quarterback last year. However he played incredibly inconsistent this past season. He had four games with scoring single digits and also three games with over 30 points. He had a career high in touchdowns and interceptions, if he can cut down the interceptions and become more consistent look for him to be a viable starting fantasy option this year. He does have a lot of talent around him as his top wide receiver AJ Green is unbelievable along with Marvin Jones who had a career year. The tight end position is stacked also with Tyler Eifert in his second year and Jermaine Gresham still there. Andy Dalton could make a fantasy owner very happy if he can cut down on the turnovers. His struggles at times throughout the season causes me to hesitate to draft him as my top quarterback, but his ability to put up big numbers makes him have upside as a possible every week fantasy starter.

18. Josh McCown
Josh McCown is the wildcard at the quarterback position. He did a great job replacing Cutler when he was out with an injury and put up some very good numbers while in. Now he has moved on to Tampa Bay as he will be taking the starting role with some talented players around him. He has very similar wide receivers in Tampa Bay like he did in Chicago with two big targets in Vincent Jackson and newcomer Mike Evans. They also have Doug Martin coming back from injury to take some of the pressure of McCown. However, it is very risky to trust a 35 year old quarterback whose track record before this has been mediocre at best. It’s a risk taking McCown, but if you can get him late enough it could pay off if he continues of his breakout year from last year. Last year could also be a bit of a fluke and he could possibly continue the same struggles he had earlier in his year. Personally, I think he will be a fringe fantasy starter, but the risk is too great to take him high.

19. Eli Manning

Last year was a nightmare year for fantasy owners that drafted Eli Manning. 18 touchdowns and 27 interceptions are definitely not the stats of a fantasy starter and he will have to turn that around to have any consideration of starting. He has the help from new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, who was the old quarterbacks coach for the Green Bay Packers. They have focused on short, quicker passes in the new offense. McAdoo’s goal for Eli Manning was to be at a 70% completion percentage this year which would be a dramatic increase from his 57% completion percentage this past year. Eli could still get back to form and have a comeback year with this offense. Just look at the breakout year Phillip Rivers had this past season with Mike McCoy’s new offense. With talented wide receivers Victor Cruz, Reuben Randle and newcomer Odell Becham Jr. around him, expect a bit of a bounce back year for Eli.

20. Joe Flacco

Flacco was another player, along with Eli Manning, who had a down year. Flacco threw a career high 22 interceptions after never throwing more than 12 in his career and only finished with 19 touchdowns. Part of this had to do with the lack of a run game with Ray Rice having a down year. Flacco also had to deal with a shaky offensive line and losing his top wide receiver in Anquan Boldin. Honestly Joe Flacco has never been a fantasy superstar and at most has been a solid backup. There’s not much upside in picking Flacco other than him getting back to his normal numbers and being a solid fantasy backup.

NFL Draft Articles

Top 5 NFL Draft Risers

April 9, 2014 Tyler Vesely 2 Comments

Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana

Cody Latimer is a big, fast wide receiver who has jumped dramatically from being a late round pick. At 6’3 215 lbs, Latimer has the ability to attack the ball with great body control and very good hands. Declaring for the NFL as a junior, Latimer was unable to work out for NFL teams for a while due to a broken foot. However recently he ran a 4.44 at Indiana’s pro day. His speed and size have caused him to move up draft boards around the league and there are rumors that he could possibly be a late first round pick. Personally, I see him as a third round pick due to separation concerns and lack of overall explosiveness on tape.

2. Tom Savage, QB, Pittsburgh

Tom Savage has generated a buzz around the league from being a late round QB to a possible second round pick. Savage has all the tools to be an NFL QB. He has good size at 6’4 228 Lbs, but his biggest asset to his game is his rocket arm. Savage has one of the best arms in the draft and has the capability to make every throw in an NFL playbook. He played in a pro-style offense this past year at Pitt and showed glimpses of being a potential NFL starter. He was beaten up a lot due to a bad Pittsburgh offensive line, but still showed good pocket awareness. He can throw a great deep ball also. A concern I have is he does sometimes force the ball into coverage, but he has everything from the neck down. He just needs to improve the decision making. If you give him 2-3 years with NFL coaching I believe he could contend for a starting job. I see him as more of a mid-round developmental pick than a second round pick.

3. Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Kyle Fuller on tape was one of the best cornerbacks I watched in this class. He has good size for a corner at 6’0 190 lbs. and did a tremendous job this season blanketing top wide receivers. His senior campaign started with a tremendous game against Alabama where he finished with 4 tackles and an interception. He did have to end his season early due to hernia surgery in November. Fuller is physical and shows good change of direction. He also shows good speed running a 4.49 at the NFL combine. There are not really many weaknesses to his game other than not being an elite athlete. He has shot up draft boards around the league due to solid game film and solid workouts. I fully suspect that he should compete to be the number one cornerback and could go somewhere in the mid first round.

Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia

Morgan Moses has stepped up into a definite first round possibility. At 6’6 315 lbs, Moses shows great moving ability with his size. He is very good in pass protection and uses his long arms well. One of his best traits is handling speed rushers with a very quick kick slide. This is shown when facing speed rusher Jeremiah Attaochu from Georgia Tech. One area that he will need to improve in is his run blocking. He isn’t a premium road grader, but he can still do an effective job in run blocking. Morgan Moses has vastly improved since his junior year and I believe has solidified himself as a top 5 offensive tackle in this class.

5. Jordan Tripp, OLB, Montana

A small school prospect, Jordan Tripp has shot up draft boards to a very good mid round prospect. Jordan Tripp was the leader of the Montana Grizzlies defense and is a very good tackler. He flies around the field and is one of the few linebackers in this draft that excels in coverage. That speed was shown off at the combine where he ran a 4.67. He is not overly big at 6’3 237 lbs. but is strong. He is an all-around very good football player who despite playing at the FCS level should still be a possible third round pick.