Pac 12 Championship: Oregon over USC

Pac 12 North

1. Oregon Ducks

Projected Record: 11-2

Wins: Fresno State, Stony Brook, Arizona, Stanford, Cal, UCLA, Colorado, Washington State, Utah, Oregon State, USC (Pac-12 Championship)

Losses: Ohio State, Washington

Oregon had a rocky season, but still won the Pac-12 Championship despite not winning the Pac-12 North. The offense was decent last year and brings almost everyone back. A key will be who wins the QB competition between Anthony Brown and freshman Jay Butterfield. The defense is led by DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, a definite top ten 2021 NFL Draft pick. Mario Cristobal has done an excellent job recruiting and there is a serious talent on the roster… they just aren’t there yet as an elite team. But expect them to be Pac-12 champions when the season is over.

2. Washington Huskies

Projected Record: 10-2

Wins: Montana, Michigan, Arkansas State, Cal, Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado

Losses: Stanford, Washington State

The Huskies finished 3-1 in 2020 despite average QB play. This year, QB Dylan Morris will have a five star freshman right behind him with Sam Huard. This team is built to run the ball after returning their entire offensive line, including potential first round pick Jaxson Kirkland, and two good running backs (Sean McGrew and Richard Newton). At receiver, there is a bunch of questions on who will step up. Maybe it will be Texas Tech transfer Ja’Lynn Polk? Washington does have one of the best tight ends in America with Cade Otton though. Defensively, expect this team to be one of the best in the Pac-12 under Jimmy Lake as they added to the group with nickel back Brendan Radley-Hiles (Oklahoma transfer) and DE Jeremiah Martin (Texas A&M transfer). This team has the talent to compete with Oregon for the Pac-12 North.

3. California Golden Bears

Projected Record: 7-5

Wins: Nevada, Sacramento State, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona, Stanford, UCLA

Losses: TCU, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, USC

Cal played a total of 4 games (1-3) in 2020 so there’s not really much to take from it. The team was led by their defense as the offense was pedestrian. Look for an improvement to the offense with QB Chase Garbers coming back with plenty of experience surrounding him. However, this is still going to be a team led by their defense particularly at OLB with Cameron Goode and Kuony Deng. Expect Cal to have a bounce back year and a tough Pac-12 matchup for opponents.

4. Oregon State Beavers

Projected Record: 6-6

Wins: Hawaii, Idaho, Washington State, Utah, Cal, Arizona State

Losses: Purdue, USC, Washington, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon

Coach Jonathan Smith has made Oregon State into a competitive football team. The offense has made real strides and should be decent in 2021 especially with WR Tre’Shaun Harrison. Defense improvement will be the key, but they have the linebackers to do it. A bowl game would be a fantastic finish and a continued step in the right direction.

5. Stanford Cardinals

Projected Record: 6-6

Wins: Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Washington State, Washington, Oregon State, Cal

Losses: USC, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona State, Utah, Notre Dame

Stanford had a quiet good year last year finishing 4-2 and winning their last four games. It won’t be as easy this year after losing QB Davis Mills and a few good offensive linemen. Look for QB Tanner McKee to take over as a young, former highly rated recruit. As for the negatives, the skill position players lack elite talent and the defense is coming off a not so great year. Expect the Cardinals to be OK in 2021 with a decent secondary and an average offense.

6. Washington State Cougars

Projected Record: 5-7

Wins: Utah State, Portland State, BYU, Arizona, Washington

Losses: USC, Utah, Cal, Oregon State, Stanfrod, Arizona State, Oregon

The Cougars have plenty of weapons at the skill positions, but need to find a consistent quarterback. Jarrett Guarantano (Tennessee transfer) is the most likely to step in, but his college career has been anything but consistent. The offense does feature talented RB Max Borghi. Defensively, they were bad last year. However, they bring back a ton of returning starters to the defense. Overall, it is tough to predict how Washington State will finish with so many unknowns. A bowl game will be nice for Coach Nick Rolovich in his first (full) season.

Pac 12 South

1. USC Trojans

Projected Record: 10-3

Wins: San Jose State, Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State, Colorado, Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona, Cal, BYU

Losses: Arizona State, UCLA, Oregon (Pac-12 Championship)

There is some serious talent on this USC team coming off a 5-1 season. QB Kedon Slovis is one of the best in the Pac-12 and the receivers are crazy talented (Drake London, KD Nixon, Jake Smith and Bru McCoy). A key for the offense will be to improve the offensive line play. The defense also brings back six starters to a top 40 defense. One of those starters is LB Drake Jackson who is highly disruptive. The secondary is experienced and the defensive line includes five-star freshman Korey Foreman… this will be a very good football team in 2021. Overall, expect USC to finish at the top of the Pac-12 South.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected Record: 9-3

Wins: Southern Utah, UNLV, BYU, Colorado, UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona

Losses: Utah, Washington, Oregon State

It is unknown if the Sun Devils will even be eligible for post season play following the school’s disregard to recruiting rules during COVID. However, this is a talented team that should be the favorite to win the Pac-12 South. It starts with talented QB Jayden Daniels entering his third season. Combine that with RB Rachaad White who averaged 10 yards per carry and an experienced offensive line… they are going to be good. The development of the wide receivers will be critical on their potential. On defense last year they gave up the least amount of points, but a bunch of yards. Expect an improvement especially with corners Jack Jones and Chase Lucas.

3. UCLA Bruins

Projected Record: 7-5

Wins: Hawaii, Fresno State, Stanford, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, USC

Losses: LSU, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon, Cal

An extremely experienced team that is coming off a 3-4 season where none of their losses were by more than 6 points. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson finally took a step forward and had a fantastic season down the stretch leading the Bruins to a top 20 offense. Expect the same with almost everyone back except for RB/WR Demetric Felton. Running backs Brittain Brown and Zach Charbonnet (Michigan transfer) will do just fine taking over and running behind an experienced offensive line led by potential first round left tackle Sean Rhyan. The issue will be the defense. Sure the defense returns ten starters from last year, but linebacker remains an issue. Expect former four-star Ale Kaho (Alabama transfer) to compete for a starting role. Overall, this could be a sneaky Pac-12 South wildcard contender.

4. Utah Utes

Projected Record: 8-4

Wins: Weber State, BYU, San Diego State, Washington State, Arizona State, Stanford, Arizona, Colorado

Losses: USC, Oregon State, UCLA, Oregon

Utah will be a flat out solid team again. The defense returns eight starters and the quarterback play gets a major bump from transfer QB Charlie Brewer (Baylor). Look for running backs TJ Pledger (Oklahoma transfer) and Chris Curry (LSU transfer) to lead the offense. One thing that is a huge question mark is can these wide receivers be explosive and not just possession guys. Last year, the Utes won despite Jake Bentley’s shaky play… expect a better season from Utah and a solid team.

5. Colorado Buffaloes

Projected Record: 6-6

Wins: Northern Colorado, Arizona, Cal, Oregon State, Oregon State, Washington, Utah

Losses: UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, USC, Arizona, Washington State

It is amazing this team went 4-2 in coach Karl Dorrell’s first season. The offense is led by RB Jarek Broussard who had 895 yards in only six games. The quarterback and receivers are a total unknown with young QB Brendon Lewis most likely starting and surrounded by La’Vontae Shenault (Brother Laviska plays for the Jaguars), Brenden Rice (son of Jerry Rice), and Dimitri Stanley. The defense was average in 2020 and should be around the same in 2021 as they are led by their linebackers Nate Landman and Carson Wells. Expect the Buffaloes to be a tough team, but regress closer to reality especially with a tough non-conference schedule.

6. Arizona Wildcats

Projected Record: 2-9

Wins: San Diego State, Northern Arizona

Losses: BYU, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Washington, USC, Cal, Utah, Washington State, Arizona State

In former coach Kevin Sumlin’s final 12 games Arizona went 0-12. Now with very little returning talent, a freshman quarterback, no bonified skill players, a terrible defense, and a first year head coach with Jedd Fisch… don’t expect too much. This will be a multi-year rebuild.

Pac 12 Championship: Oregon over USC

Pac 12 North

1. Oregon Ducks

Projected Record: 6-1

Wins: Stanford, Washington State, UCLA, Cal, Washington, USC

Losses: Oregon State

The Ducks biggest task will be replacing quarterback Justin Herbert. The competition will be between Boston College transfer Anthony Brown and Redshirt Sophomore Tyler Sholough. The new starter will be protected by the Oregon offensive line which returns 2021 top five pick Penei Sewell, but must replace all four other starters. At the skill position look for WR Johnny Johnson III and RB CJ Verdell to lead the group.

The Oregon Ducks defense will be one of the best in the nation.  The Ducks get their entire defensive line back led by DE Kayvon Thibodeaux who had 9 sacks as a freshman. Senior DTs Jordon Scott and Austin Faoliu also should lead the way and are pro prospects. Linebackers are a young talented group where highly rated freshman Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe may contribute. The entire secondary is also back led by potential first round pick Jevon Holland (UPDATE: Oregon lost Holland and two other secondary starters . This is all pretty good for a team who ranked 9^th in scoring defense last year.

Final Outlook: Oregon’s defense will be dominant, but the offense needs to develop if they have playoff aspirations.

2. California Golden Bears

Projected Record: 4-3

Wins: Washington, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State

Losses: Arizona State (x2), Oregon

The key is keeping Chase Garbers healthy. Garbers was 8-0 when he played the entire game. Along with Garbers, Cal gets almost their entire receiving core back and also 914 yard rusher 230-pound RB Christopher Brown Jr. back. The offense also returns all of their offensive line starters which means Cal should have one of the best offenses in the Pac-12.

Cal last year was led by their defense. However they lose major contributors LB Evan Weaver, Safety Jaylinn Hawkins, and Safety Ashtyn Davis. Cal does return key corners Camryn Bynum and Elijah Hicks, as well as linebackers Kuony Deng. and Cameron Goode (9.5 sacks). While the defense does lose key starters, they should be solid again.

Final Outlook: Cal might be a surprise top-25 team to the general public, but they are legit.

3. Washington Huskies

Projected Record: 5-2

Wins: Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State, Stanford, Utah

Losses: Cal, Oregon

New head coach Jimmy Lake takes over for Chris Petersen. The biggest issue is what they will do at quarterback? None of the QBs have started a game, but Jacob Sirmon is the most likely to get the starting role. Sirmon has a strong arm, but accuracy is a question. The offensive line must also replace three starters. At receiver, Puka Nucua is a young talented guy and Terrell Bynum has shown promise. Overall, this offense is a big fat question mark going into next year.

The team will be led by the defense which ranked 15^th in scoring defense returns almost everyone. Defensive back Elijah Molden last year led the team in tackles and interceptions. Molden is a potential All-American and first round pick. In the front seven, OLB Joe Tryon returns off a 8.5 sack season and DL Levi Onwuzurike will lead the defensive line (UPDATE: Both have opted out).

Final Outlook: The offense struggled last year and I do not see them getting any better. The team will be led again by a strong defense.

4. Oregon State Beavers

Projected Record: 5-2

Wins: Washington State, Oregon, Utah, Stanford, Arizona

Losses: Washington, Cal

Oregon State is moving in the right direction after finishing 5-7 and winning four games in conference. Head Coach Jonathan Smith now enters his third season. The offense will have some challenges replacing QB Jake Luton, WR Isaiah Hodges, and three offensive linemen. QB Tristan Gebbia is ready to take over after seeing some action last year along with RB Jermar Jefferson. At receiver Champ Flemmings comes back and Florida State transfer Tre’Shaun Harrison may receive a waiver to play right away.

The defense has made major improvements from an absolute terrible defense in 2018. The front seven is excellent with their two top linebackers Avery Roberts and Omar Speight returning along with All-American DE Hamlicar Rashed (14 sacks). The secondary returns almost all of their starters as well.

Final Outlook: Coach Smith has made a tremendous turnaround to make Oregon State a competitive team in the Pac-12. Look for Oregon State to possibly have a few upsets this year.

5. Stanford Cardinals

Projected Record: 3-4

Wins: Colorado, Washington State, UCLA

Losses: Oregon, Cal, Washington, Oregon State

KJ Costello transferred to Mississippi State and David Mills now takes over full time. The offense stunk in 2019, but return receivers Michael Wilson and Simi Fehoko. Austin Jones will have to step up at running back. The offensive line will be led by highly regarded offensive tackles Walker Little and Foster Sarrell.

Stanford used to always have a reliable defense… it was not in 2019. Now the defense has gone through additional loses with grad transfers on the defensive line and secondary going to SMU, Indiana, and UCLA. The linebackers lose three out of the four starters. What the defense does have are DE Thomas Booker and great cover corner Paulson Adebo.

Final Outlook: Stanford has taken a tumble and is no longer the Rose Bowl contenders from the past. They won’t be terrible like last year, but don’t expect a major improvement.

6. Washington State Cougars

Projected Record: 1-6

Wins: Colorado

Losses: Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford, Washington, USC, Cal

New head coach Nick Rolovich takes over for Mike Leach. What the offense does have left is Max Borghi who is an underrated player and one of the best running backs in the Pac-12. The offense might be focused around him without an experienced option at quarterback. Cammon Copper is the most likely option to start. Washington State also loses their top three wide receivers. This offense will be nowhere near the top ten which they finished in last year.

The defense struggled last year giving up over 31 points per game. The defense is led by their linebacker group including Jahad Woods who is coming off a 141 tackle year. Safety Skyler Thomas is a multi-year starter coming off a 4 INT season. The defense should improve from being awful last year.

Final Outlook: An offense that is falling back to average and a not great defense? The Cougars will be fighting in the bottom of the Pac-12.

Pac 12 South

1. USC Trojans

Projected Record: 6-1

Wins: Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Washington State, UCLA

Losses: Oregon

USC is coming off an 8-5 season, but finished 7-2 in the conference. The offense is loaded with Kedon Slovis at QB and a talented group of receivers including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyler Vaughns, Drake London, and 5-star redshirt freshman Bru McCoy. The run game is led by Vavae Malepeai, but USC does not run the ball much with Graham Harrell at Offensive Coordinator. Four of the five offensive linemen return with first-round pick Austin Jackson the only one leaving. He will be replaced by All-Pac 12 offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker who will move from left guard to left tackle.

The defense struggled last year, finishing 6^th in the Pac-12. However, almost the entire defense returns in 2020. DE Drake Jackson leads the group coming off an All-Pac 12 second team year as a freshman. DL Jay Tufele was named USC defensive lineman of the year. Safety Talanoa Hufanga leads the secondary as a tackling machine with 141 tackles over his 18 career games. Also safety Isaiah Pola-Mao is a very active safety with 73 tackles and 4 INTs.

Final Outlook: Good offense? Check. Good Defense? Check. Worst division in college football? Check. There should be no reason Clay Helton can’t lead USC to a Pac-12 South division title.

2. Arizona State Sun Devils

Projected Record: 5-2

Wins: Cal (x2), Colorado, UCLA, Arizona

Losses: USC, Utah

Arizona State was a pleasant surprise at 8-5 with QB Jayden Daniels coming off a fantastic freshman season. However, the Sun Devils will be tasked with replacing RB Eno Benjamin, WR Brandon Aiyuk, and WR Kyle Williams. WR Frank Darby is returning after a 600 yard season and a major deep threat option. Another issue is the offensive line, who struggled last year and must replace three starters. Obviously Herm Edwards sees the issue and brought in graduate transfer offensive tackles Henry Hattis (Stanford) and Kellen Diesch (Texas A&M).

The defense returns eight starters from a defense that ranked 35^th in scoring defense. The defense is good against the run, but will need to improve getting to the quarterback finishing with just 26 sacks on the season. DE Jermayne Lole is back after leading the group with 6.5 sacks. The linebackers are a position of strength with Darien Butler leading the group. The secondary is also loaded with talent including corners Chase Lucas and Jack Jones.

Final Outlook: Arizona State will be USC’s biggest threat in the South. Coach Herm Edwards in his third season might be able to take the next step turning the Sun Devils into a top-25 team.

3. Utah Utes

Projected Record: 3-4

Wins: Arizona, UCLA, Arizona State

Losses: USC, Oregon State, Colorado, Washington

The offense was alright last season, but must replace some key pieces. Graduate transfer QB Jake Bentley (South Carolina) most likely takes over for Tyler Huntley and RB Devin Brumfield replaces Zack Moss. The leading receiver on this team is Tight End Brant Kuithe, which means having an actual receiver step-up will help the offense. A brightspot for the offense is the offensive line returns four starters and JUCO four-star Bamidele Olaseni.

The defense was fantastic last year finishing second overall in total defense. However, Utah loses nine starters from that 2019 defense. Only DE Mika Tafua and LB Devin Lloyd return. Utah has to replace the entire secondary and will have to start some young players.

Final Outlook: A really young defense and not much fire power on offense means the Utes will take a step back from their 11-3 season last year.

4. Arizona Wildcats

Projected Record: 2-5

Wins: UCLA, Colorado

Losses: Utah, USC, Washington, Arizona State, Oregon State

QB Grant Gunnell is back after a few impressive performances as a freshman, even outplaying Khalil Tate. There aren’t many proven skill position players, but they do have Oregon grad transfer WR Brenden Schooler and WR Jamarye Joiner. RB Gary Brightwell will take over for JJ Taylor who was a key piece to the offense over the past few years. Arizona does have a good offensive line that brings most of their starters back from last year.

Arizona’s defense returns a lot of starters but will need an increase in production after finishing 120th last year. The unit was going to be led by linebackers Colin Schooler and Tony Fields (UPDATE: Both transferred). Add in a secondary that struggled last year and lost top CB Jace Whitaker, the defense won’t be great again

Final Outlook: With a bad defense and a questionable offense, Arizona will be fighting with the bottom of the Pac-12.

5. UCLA Bruins

Projected Record: 1-6

Wins: Colorado

Losses: Utah, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, Stanford

Chip Kelly had UCLA to 3-9 in 2018 and 4-8 in 2019. Maybe they can be 5-7 in 2020? Chip Kelly hasn’t turned around UCLA as planned. Dorian Thompson-Robinson made a step in his sophomore year, but he is still completing less than 60% of his passes. RB Demetric Felton and Duke Grad Transfer RB Brittain Brown will attempt to replace Joshua Kelley. Additionally, UCLA doesn’t bring much back at receiver. The Bruins offensive line was young last year and returns three starters.

The defense ranked 11^th in the Pac-12 and was just flat out bad. In the secondary, the Bruins lost their best corner with Darnay Holmes. They will try to replace him with Stanford Grad Transfer Obi Eboh. Additionally, UCLA replaces four starters at linebacker and the defensive line is dangerously thin. DT Osa Odighizuwa leads the defensive line.

Final Outlook: It is year three for Chip Kelly and there is still not much talent on the roster. The only saving grace is the bottom of the Pac-12 South is also horrible.

6. Colorado Buffaloes

Projected Record: 1-6

Wins: Utah

Losses: UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, USC, Arizona, Washington State

Colorado hired Karl Dorrell after Mel Tucker’s exit to Michigan State. Returning at quarterback is Tyler Lytle who threw a total of 1 pass last year. Other than K.D. Nixon, there isn’t many other options at receiver. The Buffs return the entire running back stable including lead RB Alex Fontenot along with most of their offensive line which should help the running attack.

On defense they were bad last year giving up 31.8 points per game. Safety Derrion Rakestraw is a strong starter, but will need someone else to step up in the secondary. The Buffs return their entire defensive line including sack leader (5.5 sacks) DE Terrance Lang.  113 tackle leader Nate Landman returns and is the leader of the defense.

Final Outlook: Coach Mel Tucker didn’t leave much talent in Boulder. With a new quarterback and struggling defense, this could be a rough season.