TGIS Ten Piece – Week 11

By: Nick Radivoj

We are on to Week 11 of College Football as we were welcomed with another upset from Week 10 with LSU taking down Alabama and now controlling their own destiny to reach Atlanta for the SEC Championship game and a College Football Playoff berth. Last week provided us with a wash of a weekend going 5-5 bringing the season total to 53-46-1 (53.5%) on the year. Plenty of Top 25 matchups and opportunities for teams to play spoiler late in the season here so let’s get to it!

Missouri (4-5) at #5 Tennessee (8-1)

When: 12 PM on 11/12

Line: Tennessee -21

O/U: 56.5

Tennessee’s reign as the number 1 team in the country was short lived as they fall to Georgia on the road. Not all hope is lost because if they handle their business they can find themselves sneaking through the backdoor to the College Football Playoff party. I’ll take Tennessee to cover in a blowout here as the offense gets back on track after being quieted by a top Georgia defense. Star WRs Hiyatt and Tillman will get back in their groove and start looking like star wideouts again. Missouri falls on the road big.

The Play: Tennessee -21

#7 LSU (7-2) at Arkansas (5-4)

When: 12 PM on 11/12

Line: LSU -3

O/U: 64

LSU won their biggest game of the season to date taking down Alabama and now controlling their own destiny to find themselves in Atlanta playing for an SEC Championship game. They now need to shake off the excitement and get ready for their next biggest game of the season as they still need to handle the business in front of them – can the young team do it? I’m grabbing the key number of 3 here with the Razorbacks as this team often loves to play spoiler and can see them doing it yet again to someone at home. They face a similar attack in practice everyday as both teams are led by running QBs so that should give them an advantage there. I’m not in love with this play here but with fans storming the field and players going crazy for a win last week at home cwill they be able to get up for this game?

The Play: Arkansas +3

Oklahoma (5-4) at West Vrginia (3-6)

When: 12 PM on 11/12

Line: Oklahoma -8

O/U: 66

Definitely not the story book start for this Oklahoma regime afte taking over for longtime HC Lincoln Riley but the season isn’t over yet with plenty of time to right the ship for the future. I expect more of the same here in this one as Oklahoma’s offense behind QB Dillon Gabriel. The issue doesn’t lie with the offense but more so the defense as throughout the entire year they’ve shown uncapable of stopping opposing offenses. West Virginia doesn’t offer a whole lot but score is one thing that they can do. I believe this game will illustrate perfectly what Big 12 football has been over the years in  a shootout to the finish line.

The Play: Over 66

#9 Alabama (7-2) at #11 Ole Miss (8-1)

When: 3:30 PM on 11/12

Line: Alabama -12

O/U: 63.5

One of the easier plays of the weekend as I will be laying the points here with Alabama. Alabama has been one of the most talented teams throughout the year but just hasn’t been able to put it all together on the field. Their SEC West champion hopes are dwindling away and are in the hands of others as opposed to controlling their own destiny. I expect Nick Saban to get Bryce Young and this team ready as the remainder of these games could be as an audition for both players and coordinators as I expect some shakeups to be made here in the offseason. Ole Miss offense is mainly through the ground game and being one dimensional I expect Bamaa to be able to lock in on Dart and the ground attack. Any hopes Alabama does have for a late season run needs to be showcased here as they take care of business.

The Play: Alabama -12

#22 UCF (7-2) at #17 Tulane (8-1)

When: 3:30 PM on 11/12

Line: Tulane -2

O/U: 54.5

A Top 25 matchup most no one would have predicted entering this season as UCF and Tulane square off in a battle to see who will be leading the AAC. I will be fading Gus Malzahn in this spot here as  hi soffense seems to be rather 1 dimensional these days with the Knights. I’m hoping that UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee is cleared to start this game as Tulane will look to load the box to stop the rushing attack since Plumlee isn’t the most dangerous of threats to throw the ball. Green Wave keep their streak alive and take down the Knights from Florida.

The Play: Tulane -2

#1 Georgia (9-0) at Mississippi State (6-3)

When: 7 PM on 11/12

Line: Georgia -16.5

O/U: 53.5

The National Champion Georgia Bulldogs find themselves atop of the College Football world yet again after taking down then #1 Tennessee in dominating fashion at home. The offense seemed to be clicking on all cylinders along with the defense. Georgia was able to shut down Tennessee explosive passing game and I expect more of the same here as Kirby Smart will be able to develop a game plan to shut down the Bulldog’s air raid attack. Georgia gets out of Starkville with a 3 score lead with their eyes still on the prize for another National Championship run.

The Play: Georgia -16.5

#25 Washington (7-2) at #6 Oregon (8-1)

When: 7 PM on 11/12

Line: Oregon -13.5

O/U: 72.5

An exciting Pac 12 matchup awaits in Eugene, Oregon this weekend in what could showcase the team that ends up coming out victorious in the Pac 12. These offenses showcase some skilled offensive play led by QBs Bo Nix for Oregon and Michael Penix for Washington. Penix has been an exciting revelation for what used to be a relatively unexciting Washington offense. Meanwhile, Bo Nix looks like a completely different person from his days at Auburn as he has been lighting up the scoreboards and opponents this season. Oregon’s early season loss might be explained away as a first time Head Coach led by a transfer QB not quite clicking on all cylinders right off the bat. I expect more of the same here as Oregon should pile over 040 points and with Penix and the Huskies playing catchup I see this one heading over on yet another high total of the weekend.

The Play: Over 72.5

#19 Kansas State (6-3) at Baylor (6-3)

When: 7 PM on 11/12

Line: Baylor -2.5

O/U: 53

I’m expecting Big 12 style football to show up yet again as this one will be going over the total. I would prefer to have a clearer depiction of who will be starting behind center for the Wildcats but still believe that Kansas State will move the ball down the field to provide us with a shootout. Meanwhile, the Bears have shown over the past month of football that their offense can stand toe to toe with most anyone in College Football. Winner reaches the 30 mark and loser isn’t far too behind as we go over the total.

The Play: Over 53

#4 TCU (9-0) at #18 Texas (6-3)

When: 7:30 PM on 11/12

Line: Texas -7

O/U: 64.5

Texas ha showcased week in and out that they have some of the most talent in College Football but also display why they have 3 losses som far on the season. They are a young talented team who haven’t quite figured out yet how to win a tight game. Meanwhile, TCU stays unbeaten managing to hold off Texas Tech winning 34-24. The score doesn’t do the game much justice as it was tied for relatively most of the afternoon. Star WR Quentin Johnston exited the game early against Texas Tech and was aunable to return impacting the Horned Frog offense greatly as they didn’t look the same bit explosive without him. Keep an eye out on any injury update regarding the star WR because if he can’t suit up and play then this one won’t be close.  I feel as if the spread is taking that injury into consideration so as will I. I’m playing the under here as we won’t be getting an afternoon of trading touchdowns but rather methodically driving the ball and if Johnston plays he surely won’t be 100 percent.

The Play: Under 64

#15 North Carolina (8-1) at Wake Forest (6-3)

When: 7:30 PM on 11/12

Line: Wake Forest -3.5

O/U: 76.5

Never in my wildest dreams would I think I would find myself suggesting an over with a total this high but alas here I am. This could prove to be one of the most exciting games of this football season ans it delivers us with two exciting offenses led by two talented QBs in Drake Maye for North Carolina and Sam Hartman for Wake Forest. Both teams find themselves staring at the mirror here as they have high powered offenses but defenses that struggle mightily. I don’t expect either one of these teams to have much success stopping the other and believe both teams could reach the 40 point threshold here.

The Play: Over 76.5

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s