By: Nick Radivoj
I was unable to capitalize on my Week 3 performance as Week 4 gave me a 7-9 record as I total to 36-28 (56%) on the year. A rather frustrating performance from Week 4 given that a few overs were there for the taken but missed because of either no scoring in the second half by a team or no points scored in the entire 4th quarter from either side. Reagrdless, we are back for Week 5 firing at the board.
Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) at Denver Broncos (2-2)
When: 8:15 PM on 10/6
Line: Broncos -3
O/u: 43.5
The injury bug has hit both of these running back rooms as Colts Jonathan Taylor is dealing with an injury of his own that may either keep him ot or slow him down while Broncos suffered worse news as Javontae Williams suffered a torn ACL in their last matchup. Under is the play here as neither of these offenses seem to be able to move the ball easily throughout any of thir games so far either with bad playcalling or not having the athletes out there to make the needed plays. Colts are an indoor team coming to play in the outside at Mile High so don’t forget about that element as conditioning could play a factor in this game com elate, but good news for Matt Ryan is I heard ducks fly better at higher altitude.
The Play: Under 43.5
New York Giants (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1)
When: 9:30 AM on 10/9 (London)
Line: Packers -8
O/u: 41.5
If you wake up early on Sunday mornings then brew yourself a nice cup of coffee and enjoy some early football as we have another game overseas this week. Aaron Rodgers looks to lead the Packers to their 4th straight win on the season after coming out flat in their opening game against Minnesota. Slowly but surely, it seems like Rodgers is starting to connect with his new weapons as earlier this year it seemed they were often not in sync. Green Bay seemed to underestimate the Patriots last week as they barely escaped in overtime with a win, so I expect them to be prepared this week for whatever Brian Daboll and the Giants have ready to throw at them. Run at them may be the correct phrase as Saquon Barkley is healthy and looks like his 1st round caliber self again and if the Packers are able to key in on him and bottle him up then this Giants offense is in for a long day.
Packers -8
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) at Buffao Bills (3-1)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Bills -14
O/u: 47
The Kenny Pickett era has begun 4 games into the season as the rookie will make his first start this week on the road in Buffalo. Unfortunately, Buffalo is not the most welcoming of places for a rookie to have his first start and with this being only the second home game for the Bills this season, so I expect the fans to be rowdy and full of energy. The line speaks for itself here as Vegas is expecting a blowout but I’m never high on laying 2 TDs against a professional football team so that leaves us with either taking the points with Pitt or looking towards the total here. Although their offensive line seems to be overpowered on paper by the Bills defensive line, Pittsburgh does have weapons on the outside to attack a banged-up Bills secondary. I will most likely regret this, but I will take the points in hopes of a backyard cover here for us late.
The Play: Steelers +14
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Chargers -3
O/u: 48
Justin Herbert brings his team back to .500 on the year after gutting out a great performance against Houston. You can see that Herbert isn’t 100 percent healthy still but he’s still managing to gut it out for his team. Los Angeles is hopeful to get Keenan Allen finally back this week to pair him alongside Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler who broke out last week totalling 3 total touchdowns. Cleveland, on the other hand, comes home after a disappointing last second loss to the Falcons on the road. Keep an eye out on the status of both of Cleveland’s defensive ends because if they are unable to give it a go then life gets a whole lot easier for Justin Herbert not having to worry about them. Just as I did in the first 4 weeks, I will continue to fade Jacoby Brissett and this Browns team.
The Play: Chargers -3
Chicago Bears (2-2) at Minnesota Vikings (3-1)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Vikings -7
O/u: 44
My hope of Justin Fields becoming a dynamic QB in the NFL gets smaller and smaller as the weeks dwindle by. He has yet to look the part and the blame isn’t fully on him as Chicago’s front office did very little to help him out whether it be regarding his offensive line or offensive weapons. I do not intend on backing him here either as Minnesota has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and the fan swill make it difficult on Fields’ all throughout the contest. Color me very shocked here if Minnesota doesn’t come out of this game with multiple turnovers forced. Vikings don’t have the strongest of defenses in the NFL but with what Chicago can throw at them and this home environment give me the Vikings.
The Play: Vikings -7
Detroit Lions (1-3) at New England Patriots (1-3)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Patriots -3
O/u: 46.5
I learned my lesson and if the Lions are playing then I’m playing the over. Detroit has one of the highest scoring offenses in the league but when you couple that with the worst defense in the NFL then it’s not a recipe for success. For this game make sure to keep an eye on the injry report for Swift, St. Brown, and Brian Hoyer as whether these players are inactive or playing could severely move both the total and spread here. Regardless, Patriots should dhave a field day on the ground with their 2 headed monster.
The Play: Over 45.5
Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Saints -5.5
O/u: 46
Geno Smith has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season as he has looked rather impressive in his first 4 starts. Seahawks finally got the run game going against Detroit last week but playing the worst defense in the NFL may have something to do with that. Saints return from London empty handed but should get Jameis Winston back this week behind center. Over is the play here as New Orleans shouldn’t have too much difficulty moving the ball on Seattle as they, along with the Lions, have one of the worst defenses in the league. If Geno Smith continues to cook then we should be cruising over the total.
The Play: Over 46
Miami Dolphins (3-1) at New York Jets (2-2)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Dolphins -3
O/u: 44.5
No Tua, no problem for the Dolphins in this one. Miami is coming off having extra rest and a disappointing effort against Cincinnati last Thursday. Keep an eye on the health of both Dolphins’ starting cornerbacks as Byron Jones should return from the IR and Xavien Howard left the matchup against the Bengals early. I expect for the defense to get back on track mixing up their coverages and confusing the relatively inexperienced Zach Wilson. Ne York has explosive wide receivers on the outside in Elijah Moore and Garret Wilson but Zach Wilson hasn’t shown the ability to consistently get them the ball to create plays. Running game finally gets on track for Miami here as they run away with the win and run back down to Miami to hopefully get Tua back for Week 6.
The Play: Dolphins -3
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Buccaneers -8.5
O/u: 48
Although in a losing effort, Buccaneers finally got their offense back on track with Mike Evans returning from suspension and Chris Godwin returning from injury. Unfortunately, Tampa’s offense may have found a groove, but their defense underwhelmed as they had over 40 points dropped on them on Sunday Night Football. Luckily, Tampa’s defense gets to face off against the likes of Marcus Mariota who looks far from what everyone remembers at Oregon. Atlanta has lost their leading running back on the year and seem to have forgotten who Kyle Pitts is as he gets under utilized game in and game out. Tampa rights their ship and catapults back into first place.
The Play: Buccaneers -8.5
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Titans -2.5
O/u: 42.5
I’m unsure how anyone can logically back the Commanders after seeing what they have put on display over the first few weeks of the season thus far. The offense has been rather abysmal despite having talent in spots over the field while the defensive players seem to hate their DC Jack del Rio. None of this is a recipe for success and ultimately Ron Rivera is on a sinking ship in Washington as this is going to be blown up after this year. Titans have gotten their season back on track winning 2 straight behind King Henry and I expect the trend to continue here. Titans defense is susceptible to plays downfield and I expect Wentz and company to put together a better offensive outing this week.
The Play: Over 42.5
Houston Texans (0-3-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
When: 1 PM on 10/9
Line: Jaguars -7
O/u: 44.5
If we are Trevor Lawrence we are going to chalk up what happened in Phily because of the rain and forget about it moving forward. Jacksonville has surprised us how they have played to start this year but are they good enough to be laying a touchdown even against Houston? This is a divisional matchup for the Texans who played another division foe tight earlier this year in the Colts to a tie. The offseason hype of Damian Pierce seemed to have finally come to fruition as he totaled over 100 yards on the ground last week against the Chargers. I’m taking the points here with the divisional dog here and if the game isn’t close late then back door is sure to be alive.
Texans +7
San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-3)
When: 4:05 PM on 10/9
Line: 49ers -6.5
O/u: 39
This is going against the trend here with the over play. Through 4 games the 49ers have hit the under in all of them and Panthers aren’t far behind. As trends like this occur, people will often blindly take the under and with oddsmakers knowing this they will make a line to favor themselves into an over win. We saw how good the 49ers defense were on Monday Night football but travelling across country on a short week could have an impact on the unit. If they weren’t already, Panthers players and staff are fighting for their jobs and need to show up or possibly be looking for work come Tuesday morning. San Francisco’s offense opened up last week with Jimmy getting in a more of a rhythm coming back in the starting role and from injury.
The Play: Over 39
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
When: 4:25 PM on 10/9
Line: Rams -4.5
O/u: 43.5
Rams look like a far cry from the team that won the Super Bowl just 8 months ago as they seem to miss Odell badly on offense. Cooper Kupp may always be open but he can’t be the only focal point of your offense. Meanwhile, Cooper Rush has filled in nicely since Dak suffered his injury winning 3 straight games. I’m banking on Sean Mcvay and his stars to right their ship as I lay the points here. The Cooper Rush experiment behind this banged up offensive line will get a heavy dose of Aaron Donald throughout this game mixed in with Jalen Ramsey getting in your head. Rams may finally use their big offseason addition in Allen Robinson as they paid him to be their top guy next to Kupp but has yet to produce. I don’t love this one here but something’s got to give.
The Play: Rams -4.5
Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
When: 4:25 PM on 10/9
Line: Eagles -5
O/u: 49.5
Arizona has gotten themselves back to .500 but welcome an Eagles team to town that look like one of the best team in football right now. Kyler Murray and the offense looked nonexistent in the first half but finally were able to find their stride in the second half ultimately putting up 26 in the game. Jalen Hurts finally looked human against the Jaguards last week but the grond game behind Miles Sanders was able to secure the win regardless. Eagles win a close one on the road here but give me the Cardinals to cover.
The Play: Cardinals +5
Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
When: 8:20 PM on 10/9
Line: Ravens -3
O/u: 48.5
Both teams find themselves at 2-2 entering this game with two different paths to get there as Bengals have fought back starting the year off 0-2 while Baltimore has surrendered 2 double digit leads at home in both of their losses. Marlon Humphrey has looked like one of the best corners in football so far but he is only 1 man. This isn’t your Ravens defense of old with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed as they have been prone to giving up points and big plays. Bengals are coming off of a long week of rest as they played last Thursday and seemed to have found some magic late in that contest downfield to both Higgins and Chase. This won’t be your father’s AFC North matchup as I expect a defensive struggle here.
The Play: Over 48.5
Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
When: 8:15 PM on 10/10
Line: Chiefs -7
O/u: 51
It’s hard to not back the Chiefs after seeing what they did to a good Buccaneers team on the road on Sunday Night Football. Derek Carrr managed to get their first win this season but find themselves with a tough task as they travel on the road to Arrowhead for a primetime Monday Night Football game. Vegas finally found some magic in former 1st round pick Josh Jacobs as his breakout game led them to a win. Ultimately, I believe the Chiefs are too overwhelming with what they can do to you on offense as Patrick Mahomes has shown a mastery of this offense so far taking what the defense gives him. Raiders put up a fight but Kansas City is too much at the end.
The Play: Chiefs -7
Thank God It's Saturday 