2019 SEASON RECORD: 33-28

Week 6 Game of the Week

#7 Auburn (-3) at #10 Florida UNDER 48.5 – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: Bo Nix finally looked like a decent quarterback last week, but can he do it against a good defense? In fact, both of these defenses are great. It will be a low scoring slugfest. A lot of people are thinking Auburn blows out Florida, I don’t. Auburn wins a close defensive battle.

Pick: Auburn 20-14

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

#18 UCF at Cincinnati (+4) – Friday 7:00pm

Friday night in Cincinnati and their field will be looking like this..

How do you bet against that? Also, I honestly believe Cincinnati is a better team than UCF. The Bearcats offense has picked up fire scoring 35 and 52 the last two weeks. Friday night, black field, and four points? Bearcats cover/win.

#21 Oklahoma State (-10) at Texas Tech – Saturday 11:00am

Texas Tech is an awful team without their starting QB Alan Bowman. They can’t move the ball and don’t have much of a defense. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is a solid top 20 team. Blowout win Cowboys.

#6 Oklahoma (-31.5) at Kansas – Saturday 11:00am

This line is too low! The Sooners offense is blowing Big 12 defenses away and Kansas is one of the worst of them. The Sooners defense is also better… expect this to be a 59-17 type game.

Maryland (-12) at Rutgers – Saturday 11:00pm

I can’t quit Maryland. Especially when you tempt me with a 12 point line to a terrible Rutgers team that just fired their coach. I keep thinking of Maryland blowing out Syracuse by almost 40 points. If Maryland doesn’t cover this they will be finally on my DONEZO list.

#11 Texas (-11) at West Virginia – Saturday 2:30pm

Only 11 points? I get the game is at West Virginia, but West Virginia is terrible. They only beat Kansas by 5 and lost to Missouri by 31. Meanwhile, Texas is obviously a very good team that can score. Longhorns should win big.

Illinois (+14) at Minnesota – Saturday 2:30pm

Minnesota has won games by 3, 3, and 7 points. Illinois has lost one game by 3 points. Both teams have faced similar opponents. I’m not a math major, but that sounds like a cover.

Baylor at Kansas State UNDER 51 – Saturday 2:30pm

Baylor hasn’t scored more than 23 points the past few weeks and Kansas State only scored 13 points against a below average Oklahoma State defense. This will be a low scoring game.

Arizona at Colorado (-4) – Saturday 3:30pm

QB Khalil Tate and RB JJ Taylor are questionable for Arizona. Colorado is a veteran team coming off a big win against a good Arizona State team. Buffs cover at home.

Rice (+9.5) at UAB – Saturday 6:00pm

I’m on the Rice as an underdog train. Rice should’ve beat Louisiana Tech last week as a 10 point underdog. Instead, they lost by 3 points in OT. Rice is the best 0-5 team in the country and I will keep betting them and sprinkling dollars on the moneyline. DON’T TRY TO STOP ME.

Cal at #13 Oregon OVER 46.5 – Saturday 6:00pm

“Cal has a good defense”… it’s honestly just alright. This is me trusting Justin Herbet and the Oregon offensive line to impose their will. There is no reason they shouldn’t score at least 30 points. Oregon’s defense has played well, but also haven’t faced a decent offense since their opener with Auburn. Oregon wins 35-17 and covers the over. (The line is Oregon -17.5 which is a little high for me).

Clemson Season Almost Ended

Clemson squeaked out a 21-20 win against North Carolina (2-3). If you’ve been following the TGIS posts, you know I’ve mentioned a few times (maybe 100 times) Clemson’s schedule is absolutely awful. If Clemson loses at anytime during the season, their strength of schedule keeps them out of the playoff.

Clemson currently has three teams on their schedule ranked in the top 25. All three are in jeopardy of falling out. Texas A&M has a tough schedule and have not played well. Wake Forest only beat Boston College by three points and have a few more losses left. The ACC Championship will most likely be against Virginia, but after there loss by 15 to Notre Dame I can confidently say they will have a few more losses by December. What this all means is does Clemson make the playoffs with a loss and 0 top 25 wins? Absolutely not. So Clemson must be perfect. I’m a man of fairness. I was hard on UCF’s schedule and close wins. I have to give the same treatment to Clemson.

As far as how Clemson has actually played this year… they have not been an elite team. Trevor Lawrence has been above average at best and you can tell Clemson is replacing all four starters up front. Don’t get me wrong, Clemson is still good… they just have not shown to be an elite top 5 team. Clemson will have time to figure it out as they don’t play a team better than 3-2 until November 16th.

Ohio State is Good, but let’s not OVERREACT

Ohio State demolished Nebraska 48-7 in what was supposed to be a “Big Game.” Ohio State has been unchallenged and impressive, but after this game some called them the best team in the nation. Huge overreaction.

Nebraska is not a good football team and are a product of preseason overhype. Nebraska has proven they are a below average team. They squeaked a four point win in a shootout with a bad Illinois team and already have multiple losses. So should we consider Ohio State a great team? Yes. Should we consider the Buckeyes the best team in the nation after beating a bad Nebraska team? Nope.

SMU is for Real

The AAC team that we should be monitoring to get a New York 6 bid is not UCF… it is SMU. They have blown everyone out except for a close win against TCU. TCU’s performances this year outside of that game points to TCU actually being good and is a legitimate win under SMU’s resume. We will know for sure November 2nd when SMU plays Memphis for a spot in the AAC championship.

Terrible AP Top 25 Ranking of the Week

Clemson dropped to #2 in the rankings, but is that even enough? 18 voters still decided to put Clemson atop their ballots for who knows why. I’d argue right now Alabama, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia, and Oklahoma all should be ranked above Clemson. To the 18 voters still voting Clemson #1… this is 2019 and not 2018.

MY TOP 25

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Clemson
7. Auburn
8. Wisconsin
9. Penn State
10. Florida
11. Oregon
12. Notre Dame
13. Texas
14. Iowa
15. Washington
16. Oklahoma State
17. SMU
18. Boise State
19. Wake Forest
20. Utah
21. Michigan
22. Virginia
23. Arizona State
24. Michigan State
25. Baylor

2019 SEASON RECORD: 27-22

Week 5 Game of the Week

#21 USC (+10.5) at #17 Washington – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: This game is pending on the health of USC QB Kedon Slovis. USC is coming off a huge win over Utah and I think they keep the momentum going by playing Washington close. I like Washington to win, but USC covers.

Pick: Washington 27-21

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Northwestern at #8 Wisconsin (-24) – Saturday 11:00am

Northwestern can’t score and Wisconsin has given up 14 points in THREE GAMES. No way Northwestern gets into the double digits. Wisconsin has also scored at least 35 points each week. Meaning the closest the score will be is 35-10. Wisconsin covers.

BYU (-1.5) at Toledo – Saturday 11:00am

BYU is battle tested with their tough schedule and a win over USC. Toledo has snuck by Colorado State and lost to Kentucky by 14. BYU wins and covers.

Wake Forest (-6.5) at Boston College UNDER 71 – Saturday 2:30pm

I do not understand this line at all. Never forget Boston College lost to Kansas by double digits. Boston College also isn’t a high scoring team and faces an underrated defense in Wake Forest. Wake Forest beats Boston College 35-17. That’s covering the spread by 12 points and the under by almost 20 points.

#18 Virginia (+12.5) at #10 Notre Dame – Saturday 2:30pm

Notre Dame surprisingly kept it close against Georgia. But Virginia is one of the best teams in the ACC and 12.5 is too many points. Irish win by a touchdown.

Ole Miss at #2 Alabama (-35) – Saturday 2:30pm

Hope you got the line early. Alabama covers.

SMU(-7) at South Florida – Saturday 3:00pm

SMU outplayed TCU and is a very good football team. With former Texas QB Shane Buechele leading, SMU might be the favorite to win the AAC. South Florida on the hand is awful and lost to Georgia Tech. SMU wins BIG.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-4) – Saturday 6:00pm

Oklahoma State is at home and coming off a loss to Texas. Despite the loss, Cowboys are a lot better football team than Kansas State. Pokes bounce back.

Louisiana Tech at Rice (+10) – Saturday 6:00pm

Rice is the best 0-4 team in the country. The Owls have played Army, Wake Forest, and Baylor all tough. I don’t only like Rice to cover, I LOVE them on the money line. Rice wins their first game this weekend.

#5 Ohio State (-17) at Nebraska – Saturday 6:30pm

You get in a close shootout with Illinois, you’re not staying within 20 points of Ohio State. Buckeyes win big and cover again. (Ohio State have been cover kings this year).

Washington State at #19 Utah (-4.5) – Saturday 9:00pm

I know I said I’d quit Utah. But they’re still a good football team. You also have the Cougars coming off a terrible late night loss against UCLA. Utah wins by over a touchdown.

The UCF “Dominance” is Over

IT IS OVER! IT IS FINALLY OVER! We will not have to hear “UCF should be in the Playoffs”. UCF lost to an average 2-2 Pittsburgh team. One of the few decent teams they have had on their schedule the past three years. To commemorate UCF’s last two years of ” Dominance” here are all the teams they have beaten (Only one finished in the top 20):

2017
#10 Auburn 10-4
#21 USF 10-2 (Won Bowl Game by three points against 6-7 Texas Tech)
#25 Memphis 10-3 (Lost Bowl Game to 8-5 Iowa State)
FIU 8-5
Navy 7-6
Temple 7-6
Maryland 4-8
Cincinnati 4-8
UConn 3-9
East Carolina 3-9
Austin Peay (FCS)

2018
#24 Cincinnati 11-2 (Won bowl game by 4 points against 6-7 Virginia Tech)
Temple 8-5
Memphis 8-6
South Florida 7-6
Pitt 7-7
SMU 5-7
FAU 5-7
ECU 3-9
Navy 3-10
UConn 1-11
South Carolina State (FCS)

Seven Teams Above the Rest

Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Those are the elite teams so far this season. Wisconsin joined the discussion when they absolutely crushed Michigan. Wisconsin isn’t flashy, but they play good defense, run the ball, and don’t turn the ball over. It is almost a foregone conclusion it’ll be Ohio State vs. Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship.

And no I didn’t forget Auburn. It was an impressive win against Texas A&M this weekend, but they are not an elite team with Bo Nix. You can’t be elite with a quarterback that completes under 50% of his passes. Bo Nix will have to evolve for Auburn to have a chance as a top team.

One Loss Teams in the Hunt

Oregon, Texas, and Notre Dame all have impressive losses and are not out of the playoff race. Oregon and Texas could win-out, win their conference, and be right in prime playoff position. Will they? Probably not, but the opportunity is there.

Trouble in Michigan

I tried to tell you, their defense is not good. The Michigan offense isn’t good either. This is a flat out average Big Ten team in a lot of trouble. Jim Harbaugh is in year 5 and these are all his players. There is no where to point the finger, but at Harbaugh. He has changed Michigan to a constant top 25 team, but they’re not an elite program.  Despite all the recruits and all the hype, Michigan is just an above average Big Ten team.

Terrible AP Top 25 Ranking of the Week

SMU (4-0) Big win over TCU: Unranked

UCF (3-1) Loss to 2-2 Pitt, Win over 1-3 Stanford: #22

Nice job AP… Nice job

MY TOP 25

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Wisconsin
8. Auburn
9. Florida
10. Oregon
11. Texas
12. Penn State
13. Notre Dame
14. Iowa
15. Virginia
16. Kansas State
17. Cal
18. Washington
19. USC
20. Utah
21. Boise State
22. Wake Forest
23. Texas A&M
24. SMU
25. Michigan

2019 SEASON RECORD: 21-15

Week 4 Game(s) of the Week

Notre Dame at Georgia (-14) UNDER 58 – Saturday 7:00pm

Game Preview: This line is exactly right… Georgia’s defense will keep Notre Dame in check. Georgia’s offense will score, but not enough where I’m confident in them covering or overshooting the over. The UNDER is the play here.

Pick: Georgia 31-17

Auburn at Texas A&M (-3.5) – Saturday 2:30pm

Game Preview: YOU CANT TRUST BO NIX. Nix has completed one good pass against Oregon and people think he is the next coming of Cam Newton. Auburn will flat out struggle to move the ball. I do think Auburn’s defense will hold the Aggies for awhile, but Kellen Mond does just enough and A&M wins by a touchdown.

Pick: Texas A&M 23-17

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Utah (-3.5) at USC – Friday 8:00pm

LOCK OF THE WEEK. Utah isn’t getting any respect. USC has a true freshman quarterback facing a loaded Utah defense. Utah wins by double digits.

Michigan at Wisconsin (-3) OVER 43.5 – Saturday 11:00am

Wisconsin has shown to be the better team during the season. Michigan also can’t stop the run…. 43.5 is too low of an O/U  for a Wisconsin team that has scored an average of 55 points per game. These defenses aren’t that great. WISCONSIN and the OVER are the moves.

Western Michigan at Syracuse (-5) UNDER 65.5 – Saturday 11:00am

Ok… Syracuse isn’t that bad. Sure they don’t have an offense, but they can beat Western Michigan by more than five points in the Carrier dome. Also… they don’t have an offense so 65.5 is way too high of an O/U.

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9.5) – Saturday 11:00am

WE DON’T TRUST MICHIGAN STATE AS AN (almost) DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITE

Appalachian State at North Carolina (-3) – Saturday 2:30pm

This isn’t a big enough line. North Carolina isn’t nearly as bad as the early preseason projections. Meanwhile Appalachian State has played East Tennessee State and Charlotte this year (no I didn’t make these teams up). North Carolina wins by a touchdown or more.

SMU at TCU (-9.5) – Saturday 2:30pm

TCU can run the ball and whoever they start at quarterback will do enough to win by double digits.

South Carolina (+10) at Missouri – Saturday 3:00pm

These two teams are similar to me. So if I get one with ten points I’m going to take it. Also, the Hillinski led Cocks are differently than the Jake Bentley Cocks. South Carolina covers.

West Virginia (-4.5) at Kansas – Saturday 6:00pm

They’re still Kansas. West Virginia is bad, but not as bad as Kansas. Because they’re Kansas. And why would I bet on Kansas? So I’m taking the team that’s not Kansas. Because Kansas is Kansas.

Oregon (-10) at Stanford – Saturday 6:00pm

Put all the money on Oregon because Oregon will put all the points on Stanford. You know why? Oregon is really good and Stanford stinks. This isn’t the Stanford of a few years ago. Stanford has been getting bullied by teams that aren’t known as physical teams (USC and UCF). AND GUESS WHAT?? Oregon has one of the best offensive lines in the country. OREGON BY A MILLION.

Not much happened this week so I’m going to rant about how bad the ACC is. But if you did take a nap all weekend here is your quick review:

Iowa/Iowa State was delayed for about five hours and Iowa wins by 1. BYU Mormons said no to Trojans. Maryland is fake, Michigan State is whack, Florida State is bad. Oklahoma and Hurts continue to score. TCU beats the wheels off Purdue. Arizona and Tech decided not to score during PAC 12 AFTER DARK. UCF actually impressive. Kentucky is still alright. Florida loses Feleipe. Bama and Syracuse still untested. Buckeyes kings of the Big 10. AND Penn State wins ugly.

ALRIGHT NOW TO TALK ABOUT THE ACC…

The ACC is the WORST Conference

The All Crappy Conference. What a terrible weekend. Disclaimer: this does not include Clemson. Sure Trevor Lawrence has 4 Touchdowns and 5 Interceptions, but he’ll turn it around. The point is they have zero challengers in their conference. Let’s take a look:

ACC Atlantic

Boston College– Lost by double digits to Kansas. Yes Kansas. The team that just lost to Coastal Carolina… Kansas.

NC State– Lost by double digits to a terrible West Virginia team.

Wake Forest– Actually not awful…

Louisville– Also not awful… comparing to last year’s team.

Florida State– Actually Awful. A Louisiana Monroe extra point from possibly being 0-3.

Syracuse– Turns out Maryland wasn’t good… Syracuse was just bad. They have as much offense as the Dolphins.

ACC Coastal

Virginia– I guess they’re the best in the Coastal. Even if they almost lost to Florida State. So I guess they’re the best bad team.

North Carolina– Not great, not bad. Outclassed by Wake Forest.

Duke– Has played nobody except Alabama. At least they have a quality loss.

Miami– The “U” stands for Underachievers

Georgia Tech- LOST TO THE CITADEL. Just in case you were wondering Citadel came into the game 0-2 with losses to Towson and Elon.

Pittsburgh– Respectable. Competitive against Penn State… Still 1-2.

Virginia Tech- Tough game with Furman and lost to Boston College… you know…the team that lost to Kansas.

Basically this isn’t even a real conference anymore. No more talking about the Pac-12… ACC is now officially the worst Power Five conference. The schools are counting down the two months until College Basketball season and should have about 20 people in the stands by then.

Now we are only a few games into the season and maybe a team like Virginia or Wake Forest makes this more than a one team conference. But I doubt it. This conference through a few cupcakes at the beginning of the season have shown why the ACC is the WORST.

Terrible AP Top 25 Ranking of the Week

THEY ARE STILL RANKING WASHINGTON OVER CAL. This is over a week after Cal beat Washington at home. I thought maybe it was because the game was late last week and it would be corrected this week… NOPE. Washington ranked 22 and Cal 23.

MY TOP 25

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Notre Dame
8. Utah
9. Auburn
10. Wisconsin
11. Florida
12. Michigan
13. Texas A&M
14. Oregon
15. Texas
16. UCF
17. Penn State
18. Oklahoma State
19. Iowa
20. Boise State
21. Virginia
22. Cal
23. Kansas State
24. Washington State
25. TCU

Week 3 Game of the Week

#19 Iowa (-2.5) at Iowa State – Saturday 6:30pm

Game Preview: At the start of the year I believed this game was going to be a big Cyclone win. However, a 2OT game close win against Northern Iowa changed my view. I honestly think this game is a toss up and I wouldn’t touch it. BUT ITS THE GAME OF THE WEEK AND I GOTTA PICK IT. I like a close, low scoring Iowa win based on what I’ve seen. Also, what a terrible weekend of football that this is the game of the week.

Pick: Iowa 20-14

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

SEASON RECORD: 13-9

Washington State at Houston OVER 73.5 – Friday 8:15pm

Mike Leach and Dana Holgersen facing off with explosive offenses. Washington State has played two lowly opponents and have scored 50+. Houston put over 30 points in each game including against an improved Oklahoma defense. Expect a lot of points deep into Friday night.

#21 Maryland (-7) at Temple – Saturday 11:00am

This is stealing and an example of Vegas not reacting to early results. Maryland offense is rolling and has been blowing teams out. I truly believe Maryland is in the top part of the Big Ten and therefore should beat Temple by double digits. Call him Coach Mike LOCKsley this week.

#6 Ohio State (-15.5) at Indiana – Saturday 11:00am

I have no idea how this line isn’t in the 20s. Indiana is not very good and Ohio State just got done blowing out a good Cincinnati team. Ohio State wins big.

Oklahoma State (-13.5) at Tulsa – Saturday 2:30pm

Oklahoma State may play on the road, but Tulsa is right down the road. Tulsa is better than last year, but in no way should be under two touchdown underdogs against a dangerous Cowboy team. It is the game after Oklahoma State’s Backbone Booster Boone Pickens death too. They’ll win big in his honor.

#24 USC (-3.5) at BYU – Saturday 2:30pm

USC’s Freshman quarterback didn’t look like a freshman quarterback in their blow out of Stanford. BYU is coming off a comeback Tennessee win, but they’ve been outplayed in both games they’ve played. Easy logic here: USC is better than BYU so I’m betting USC.

Arizona State (+14) at #18 Michigan State – Saturday 3:00pm

Michigan State scored only 28 points against Tulsa. I’m not buying into their improved offense especially against a Power Five team. Arizona State hasn’t looked great, but they’ll keep it within two touchdowns.

#9 Florida (-7.5) at Kentucky UNDER 50 – Saturday 6:00pm

Another offense I’m not buying is Kentucky with a backup quarterback. Florida’s defense is also really good and Felipe Franks showed against Miami he has not evolved as a quarterback. I wouldn’t expect a 40 point performance from Florida. What this all equates to is not a lot of points. Florida wins 27-14.

#1 Clemson at Syracuse (+28) – Saturday 6:30pm

Syracuse has played Clemson close the last two years. So you’re telling me I get them as a four touchdown under dog at home? Yes please. Keep it close Syracuse.

#12 Texas at Rice (+33) – Saturday 7:00pm

Rice has played Army and Wake Forest tough. 33 points, despite Texas’s improved offense, is too much. I think Rice makes this interesting for a quarter or two and ends up losing by 24.

#5 Oklahoma (-22.5) at UCLA – Saturday 7:00pm

UCLA is a terrible football team that will struggle to score on an improved Oklahoma defense. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma offense will put up a ton of points. Oklahoma BY A TON in this game.

Texas Tech (-2) at Arizona – Saturday 9:30pm

This game will last until 1:30am with a lot of points scored between the two. Arizona isn’t good and Texas Tech is average. The Arizona loss to Hawaii is still in my head…. Tech by a field goal or more.

LSU Has an Offense

LSU had the points raining down Saturday night in Texas with the 45-38 victory.  However, LSU played about as much defense as they had Air Conditioning in their locker room (none). Grant Delpit and Kristian Fulton are great players in the secondary, but Sam Ehlinger throwing for over 400 yards brings serious concerns about the other starters.

People also are finally paying attention to Joe Burrow. His stat line over his last six games is 135/187 (72%) 1915 yards 19 TDs and 2 INTs.  LSU… welcome to the Playoff Discussion.

Army Exposes Michigan

Last year Army exposed Oklahoma for their bad defense. This year Army exposed Michigan’s offense. Michigan couldn’t move the football at all as they barely escaped with a 24-21 2OT win.

Michigan averaged just 2.4 yards per carry against Army. Last week Rice averaged 6 yards per carry against this same defense. Michigan should have major concerns as they no longer look like a top team in the Big Ten.

Knoxville is Burning

Pruitt’s Tennessee team BLEW IT. BYU completed a 64 yard pass that put them in field goal range and sent the game to OT. Tennessee then lost in 2OT.

BYU and Georgia State were supposed to be the easy part of the schedule. Tennessee now has Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Mississippi State as four of their next five games. Will Phillip Fulmer give Pruitt another season if they finish 4-8? Pruitt’s recruiting has been impressive… the on the field results have not.

Maryland and North Carolina Surprise

As for good surprises Mike Locksley has Maryland as a serious Big Ten contender. They dismantled Syracuse, scoring 40+ points in the first half and 63 points overall. It is not out of the realm of possibilities for Maryland to be 8-0 in November before their game against Michigan.

North Carolina has also been a pleasant surprise. Mack Brown has the Tar Heels 2-0 and may be a contender in the terrible ACC Coastal.

Clemson Locks Up a Playoff Spot

Clemson’s schedule somehow looks easier now than it did in the off-season. The Tigers played their toughest opponent of the season beating the Aggies at home 24-10. The Tigers likely won’t face another top 25 team the rest of the season. As long as Clemson doesn’t collapse, they’ve already solidified their playoff spot with the win on Saturday.

Worst AP Top 25 Decision

This one is easy… Washington ranked #23 above unranked California despite losing at home to California. Guess some AP voters didn’t want to stay up until 3am.

MY TOP 25

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Notre Dame
8. Utah
9. Auburn
10. Florida
11. Wisconsin
12. Michigan
13. Texas A&M
14. Oregon
15. Texas
16. UCF
17. Penn State
18. Maryland
19. Iowa
20. Michigan State
21. Oklahoma State
22. Virginia
23. Boise State
24. USC
25. Cal

Week 1 Recap

Auburn and Oregon Down to the Wire

Oregon seemed like the better team. Their offensive line held there own and their defense held Bo Nix to 13/31 177 yards passing. But a few late drives and a late touchdown throw put Auburn on top. Auburn proved to be a top 20 team, but I still don’t trust Bo Nix.

Oklahoma’s Defensive Improvement the Real Story

Jalen Hurts played great, but we knew the Oklahoma offense can score. What we didn’t know is if the Oklahoma defense has improved. After the first game it is evident Oklahoma defense looks improved… to average. Still they are a top team without many competitors in the Big 12.

Bottom of the SEC is Historically Bad

Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri, and Tennessee all lost. This doesn’t even include Arkansas winning by just seven against Portland State.  The conference is still strong at the top with Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn.

Week 2 Game of the Week

LSU (-5.5) at Texas – Saturday 6:30pm

Game Preview: It’s going to be wild in Austin. The Texas defense will get their first test of the season as they only return two starters from last years team. Believe it or not LSU has a very good offense. This will be Sam Ehlinger’s biggest test and to see if Texas will actually be a playoff contender and “back”. I trust LSU’s offense and defense more.

Pick: LSU 34-24

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

SEASON RECORD: 8-3

Cincinnati at Ohio State (-15.5) – Saturday 11:00am

Yes, Cincinnati beat UCLA and looked good defensively. But I have a feeling that had more to do with UCLA’s bad offense rather than Cincinnati’s defense. Ohio State is three touchdowns better.

Syracuse (+1.5) at Maryland – Saturday 11:00am

Maryland won 79-0 against Howard and all of a sudden Maryland is favored. Hate to break it to Maryland fans, but Howard is terrible. Syracuse is the better football team and to get them as an underdog is too good to pass up.

Army (+23) at Michigan – Saturday 11:00am

I told a friend last week to never bet Army (triple option team) when they are favored over three touchdowns. The same theory works when they are over three touchdown underdogs. Michigan is the much better team, but Army’s style of play keeps it within the line.

Vanderbilt (+7) at Purdue – Saturday 11:00am

Purdue lost to Nevada and are still a seven point favorite. Vanderbilt isn’t a bad football team and this one should be close.

Texas A&M (+17.5) at Clemson – Saturday 2:30pm

Second best game of the week and the line is way too high. Trevor Lawrence looked a little shaky the first week against Georgia Tech, but he should turn it around. Unlike Georgia Tech, A&M has an offense that can actually score. This is a single digit game and Texas A&M has a chance to pull the upset. This will be Clemson’s toughest game all year.

Wyoming (-7) at Texas State – Saturday 6:00pm

I believe the upset Wyoming pulled against Missouri wasn’t a fluke. Coach Bohl has a really tough football team. Meanwhile, Texas State’s offense is pitiful. Wyoming by double digits.

BYU at Tennessee (-3) – Saturday 6:00pm

Tennessee is still a better team than BYU despite losing to Georgia State. Also, Knoxville will burn if the Vols lose this game.

UCF at FAU Over 68 – Saturday 6:00pm

I’m not as confident in this because I haven’t seen UCF QB Brandon Wimbush play an actual D1 football team. However, both teams will go fast and like to score. 68 points is too low of a total.

Miami (-3.5) at North Carolina – Saturday 7:30pm

Miami lost a close one to a good Florida team. North Carolina upset a bad South Carolina team. I’m honestly confused why the line is so low. Miami’s offensive line isn’t good, but they should be able to handle the Tar Heels. Miami is double digit points better than North Carolina.

Stanford (+1) at USC – Saturday 9:30pm

USC lost their starting QB and are still one point favorites? This line doesn’t make sense. Stanford wins a low scoring game.

Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Utah
10. Washington
11. Texas A&M
12. Texas
13. Auburn
14. Florida
15. Wisconsin
16. Oregon
17. Boise State
18. Iowa
19. Michigan State
20. Penn State
21. Oklahoma State
22. UCF
23. Virginia
24. Miami
25. Stanford

Week 0 Recap

Florida vs. Miami was exciting, but there was some bad football during it. Miami clearly does not have a competent offensive line. They do have playmakers on both side of the ball and I believe QB Jarren Williams will be just fine. Even with the bad offensive line they still are probably the second best team in the ACC.

Florida on the other hand is not ready to take over the SEC East. QB Feleipe Franks has not made the needed improvements and his weaknesses put a ceiling on this team.

Week 1 Game of the Week 

Auburn (-3.5) vs. Oregon – 6:30pm Arlington, TX

Game Preview: It’s strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. Oregon has one of the best offensive line in the country and they’re facing one of the top five defensive lines in the country. However, Auburn is starting QB Bo Nix, a pocket passing true freshman. This is going to be a back and forth, lower scoring game.

Pick: Oregon 24-17

Top Picks of the Week (All Times CST)

Texas State at Texas A&M (-33.5) – Thursday 7:30pm

Texas State is bad and Texas A&M is loaded on offense. As long as A&M defense hold up I think this game ends up being something like 45-10. Not one of my favorite bets, but A&M should cover.

Utah (-6) at BYU – Thursday 9:15pm 

Utah is a top ten team this year. I don’t care it is a rivalry game, if you’re giving me less than a touchdown spread against a team ranked outside of the top 25, I’m taking them.

Tulsa (+24) at Michigan State – Friday 6:00pm

Tulsa will be much improved with Zach Smith at QB. This also has to do with how bad Michigan State’s offense was last year. They didn’t cover by more than 24 points all last year and their offense struggled mightily at the end of the year. I like it a lot.

Wisconsin at South Florida Under 57.5 – Friday 6:00pm 

Wisconsin runs the ball and plays good defense. South Florida will struggle to score and the game play won’t be overly fast. Under, under, under in Tampa in August.

Colorado State at Colorado (-13.5) – Friday 9:00pm

Colorado has legitimate playmakers and Colorado State is still bad. 14 point cover should be easy.

Oklahoma State (-14.5) at Oregon State – Friday 9:30

Oklahoma State can put up points and Oregon State is not a good team. Cowboys by 20 plus.

South Alabama (+36) at Nebraska – Saturday 11:00am

Nebraska will have a good offense, but this team was 4-8 last year. They didn’t even cover 36 points against Bethune Cookman. Too many points for a team I think finishes 8-4.

North Carolina vs. South Carolina (-9) – Saturday 2:30pm

I like betting against true freshman QBs in their first game. South Carolina is much more experienced than North Carolina and a much better football team.

Duke vs. Alabama (-33.5) Over 57 – Saturday 2:30pm

Always bet Alabama on opening games no matter what. This offense will also average close to 50 points per game too. Just need to give up a touchdown to Duke for the over.

Houston at Oklahoma Under 83 – Sunday 6:30pm

Don’t get me wrong, there will be a lot of points. But Oklahoma’s defense will be better this year and Jalen Hurts running style will lead to less points. Expect a 45-24 type of score.