TGIS Ten Piece – Week 4

By: Nick Radivoj

A losing 4-6 Week 3 brings us back to average on the season as we are now 15-15 losing some money on the juice. Quite the frustrating weekend as We barely missed the under in a few games and while staying up late to watch Fresno State and USC we had a QB injury quickly put the kiss of death on that line. We learn and we move forward as we are on to College Football Week 4.

Maryland (3-0) at #4 Michigan (3-0)

When: 12 PM on 9/24

Line: Michigan -16.5

O/u: 65.5

High powered offenses will be squaring off in Ann Arbor come Saturday as Maryland comes in averaging 40 points per game while Michigan is scoring over 55 points a game. These numbers may be deceiving as neither team has faced off against a Big 10 opponent yet. Although they have been scoring in bunches as of late, Michigan and Jim Harbaugh coached teams are not known for running teams off the field but more so tough defense. The spread has stayed steady a majority of the week while the total has gone up by almost 3 points. I expect these teams to come back to Big 10 football with Michigan coasting to a win.

The Play: Under 65.5

#5 Clemson (3-0) at #21 Wake Forest (3-0)

When: 12 PM on 9/24

Line: Clemson -7

O/u: 55.5

Something smells here with this line and I may find myself in a trap. Clemson, with their below standard offense, managed to beat Wake Forest 48-27 last year. With improvement in the offense and still a top Clemson defense I’m unsure how this Clemson team doesn’t blow out Wake Forest on the road here. Wake Forest barely snuck out with a win over Liberty last week. Clemson has a clear talent advantage in the trenches here and will surely dominate in the run game like they did last year. I also like playing the over here in this spot but will end up laying the points with Clemson.

The Play: Clemson -7

#20 Florida (2-1) at #11 Tennessee (3-0)

When: 3:30 PM on 9/24

Line: Tennessee -10.5

O/U: 62.5

Anthony Richardson and the Gators have laid a few eggs in back-to-back weeks after an impressive Week 1 Top 10 win over Utah. Since then, Anthony Richardson has looked more like a project than a top quarterback in this year’s upcoming NFL Draft. The season look ahead line for this game was Tennessee favored by 8 points as we see the line creep up to the Volunteers favored by 11 now. I don’t feel comfortable laying that many points with a Tennessee team but that doesn’t mean I’m eager to take them with Florida. Glancing at the total, I see value in playing the over as Florida should be able to move the ball on this Tennessee team while Hendon Hooker and the Vols should be able to match them on their own.

The Play: Over 62.5

#22 Texas (2-1) at Texas Tech (2-1)

When: 3:30 PM on 9/24

Line: Texas -6.5

O/u: 60

Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith has underwhelmed during his 2 starts after coming in Week 1 for injured Tyler Shough. He has turned over the ball in each of his starts thus far and with the Longhorns coming to town I envision the ball flying in harms way yet again. Meanwhile, Hudson Card brought the Longhorns back to the winners’ circle after losing on a last second field goal the week prior. Card is leading the offense now that Ewers is recovering from injury and although Card was a starter last year he doesn’t provide quite the explosion that Ewers does when he was lined up behind center. Texas DC Gary Patterson will sure have a plan to confuse the ripe Red Raider quarterback.

The Play: Under 60

Notre Dame (1-2) at North Carolina (3-0)

When: 3:30 PM on 9/24

Line: North Carolina -1.5

O/u: 57

First one is always the hardest, right? Notre Dame HC Marcus Freeman secured his first win last week as they grinded out a 24-17 win over California. Plenty of teams are in this new wave of College Football spreading the field out and passing the ball down field, but Notre Dame is not one of those teams. Marcus Freeman is keen on getting back to his roots and playing hard nosed defense for 60 minutes while playing power football on the offensive side. Meanwhile, Drake May and North Carolina provide fireworks and quick soring drives with explosive plays. One of the best ways to limit an offense like that from clicking is by having them sit on the sideline longer. Once again, a slow grind it out game that stays under the total for us going to the window.

The Play: Under 57

James Madison (2-0) at Appalachian State (2-1)

When: 3:30 PM on 9/24

Line: Appalachian State -8

O/U: 58

Appalachian State survives gameday last week as they win in the final seconds off a Hail Mary by QB Chase Brice. Appalachian State has had two long drawn-out games that have gassed this team as they upset Texas A&M on the week prior to their comeback win last week. James Madison comes in as an undefeated team and a perennial powerhouse in their conference and in a spot where Appalachian State is sure to run out of gas give me James Madison to cover here with a potential outright winner.

The Play: James Madison +8

#15 Oregon (2-1) at Washington State (3-0)

When: 4 PM on 9/24

Line: Oregon -6.5

O/u: 57.5

Oregon travels on the road after an impressive victory over a #12 ranked BYU team. Bo Nix often seems like two different quarterbacks when he plays at home versus on the road so we shall see if we get Jekyll or Hide this upcoming week. Meanwhile, JUCO transfer QB Cam Ward has led the Cougars to a 3-0 start as he’s impressed in his first action in Power 5 so far. Washington State’s defense has impressed along with the offense this year as they have one of the top scoring defenses in the Pac 12 currently.  Dependent on which Bo Nix arrives game time on Saturday I believe that Washington State has a chance to win this game outright but with Dan Lanning interested in running the ball to minimize Nix’s turnover opportunities I will yet again play an Oregon under.

The Play: Under 57.5

#10 Arkansas (3-0) at #23 Texas A&M (2-1)

When: 7 PM on 9/24

Line: Texas A&M -2

O/u: 48.5

KJ Jefferson and the Razorbacks were almost caught sleeping last weekend looking ahead to this game as they pulled off a second half come from behind win to remain undefeated. The Aggies right their ship by taking down a highly ranked Miami team that came into town. How luck are these Aggie fans? It can’t get much better than multiple Top 15 night games. Although Texas A&M is the home team this rivalry game is played in Dallas for a mutual site game every year.  Jimbo Fisher seemed much happier with Max Johnson’s play over what he had received from Haynes King over the prior weeks. I trust KJ Jefferson and Arkansas’ offense over what A&M has put on display this year so far but with the inability for both of these teams to push the ball down field I believe the under is a good play.

The Play: Under 48.5

Vanderbilt (3-1) at #2 Alabama (3-0)

When: 7:30 PM on 9/24

Line: Alabama -40

O/u: 59

I should have seen it last week but I’m not going to miss it this week. Alabama should have been the play last week as opposed to the under as we all know Nick Saban lights a fire under his team after a loss or a close win as everything is a learning experience with this man. Saban knows what can happen to a team if they are caught looking ahead as Alabama plays a Top ranked Arkansas team next. Bryce Young will be set to get back on track to tune up after throwing a few interceptions in last week’s contest. I look for Alabama to put it on them early so that we can get out of dodge with no injuries for their next contest against Arkansas.

The Play: Alabama -40

Wisconsin (2-1) at #3 Ohio State (3-0)

When: 7:30 PM on 9/24

Line: Ohio State -18.5

O/u: 57

The Ohio State offense we all know and love was finally back this past Saturday against Toledo as the Buckeyes explode for 77 points on the day. Ohio State DC Jim Noles is slowly getting his scheme implemented but still doesn’t have his defense playing like he wants them. As for Wisconsin, the blueprint is out on how to slow this Ohio State team if you watch the recap of their first game against Notre Dame. DC Jim Leonhard will surely be able to take notes from that game as Notre Dame eliminated any plays from going over the top and forced Ohio State to prove they could score through long drives down the field. I would love to play the under again hear but to not pull my hair out rooting for too many unders this weekend I will take the points with the Badgers.

The Play: Wisconsin +18.5

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